Russia’s ‘Zapad’ drill has Europe on edge about low-key attacks

WARSAW, Poland — As Russia and Belarus launch the “Zapad 2025” joint military drill this month, eyeing buildups of military forces along NATO’s eastern borders and direct simulations of attacks on Poland and the Baltic States, the four Eastern European allies are gearing up for the drills of their own in anticipation of low-intensity attacks against their infrastructure.

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland plan to respond by holding their own training for some 40,000 troops to mirror “Zapad 2025.”

This year’s edition of the exercise is scheduled for Sept. 12-16. Russia used the previous “Zapad,” or “West” in Russian, training in September 2021 to deploy the forces that eventually invaded Ukraine in February the following year.

The joint exercise usually takes place every two years, but the Kremlin decided to cancel the 2023 edition as Russia was struggling to source troops and gear for its aggression against Ukraine. While Moscow’s military capacities continue to be largely tied up in the ongoing invasion, “Zapad 2025” is expected to comprise nuclear weapons and Russian-made hypersonic missiles.

In Lithuania, which shares a border with both Belarus and Russia, the upcoming drills have put the country’s security apparatus on high alert, according to the Lithuanian Ministry of National Defence.

“This year, up to 30,000 troops are expected to participate,“ the ministry told Defense News in a statement. “Around 6,000–8,000 will be stationed in Belarus, with several thousand in Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave. Despite rumors of larger forces, Lithuanian intelligence reports no such increase.”

The Baltic nation’s “military, alongside NATO allies, is closely monitoring the situation and remains fully prepared to respond if necessary,” the Lithuanian ministry said. “Lithuania will conduct its own exercises simultaneously, with allied support to ensure national security.”

Gen. Raimundas Vaikšnoras, the Lithuanian chief of defense, has announced that during “Zapad 2025” the three Baltic States will join forces with Poland to respond by launching an exercise for around 40,000 allied troops in the region.

“The Lithuanian contingent, without speculating too much on numbers, will be around 10,000, plus another 6,000 or so from our allies. And this applies not only on land, but also at sea and in the air,” Vaikšnoras told local broadcaster LRT.

The general said that, “based on what is planned as of today, the Baltic states plus Poland will have more moving parts, personnel and other capabilities than what we can observe through reconnaissance platforms” with regards to “Zapad 2025.”

Poland, the largest ally in the region which borders Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad, is working with its NATO partners to ensure monitoring of the forthcoming exercises, but also acting within the framework of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), according to the country’s Ministry of National Defence.

“The upcoming ‘Zapad 2025’ exercises by Russia and Belarus, in the context of the ongoing war against Ukraine, illustrate further aggressive behavior and deepening cooperation between the two countries,” a spokesperson for the Polish ministry told Defense News.

Warsaw considers the risk of provocations by Moscow and Minsk will rise during “Zapad 2025.” These could involve cyberattacks against allies, GPS jamming targeting NATO infrastructure, or small-scale military incidents designed to test Poland’s capacity to respond, according to the ministry’s representative.

Last month, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin told the regime’s official press agency BelTA the forthcoming training will partly focus on operating nuclear arms and the intermediate-range Oreshnik ballistic missile. The Russian military uses the latter weapon in its attacks on Ukraine.

“Certainly, within the framework of the ‘Zapad’ exercise together with Russian colleagues we will practice matters of planning to use this kind of weapons,” Khrenin said.

As Belarus’s involvement in the Russian war against Ukraine has pushed Minsk towards an even closer military cooperation with Moscow, in August 2022, Belarusian dictator Aleksander Lukashenko announced Russia upgraded his country’s fighter jets to allow them to carry tactical atomic weapons. Moscow has also agreed to transfer to Minsk the Iskander-M tactical missile systems which can use both ballistic and cruise missiles in conventional and nuclear variants.

Poland’s “Armed Forces are constantly monitoring all military activities by neighboring countries and are prepared to respond appropriately to any possible security threats arising from such activities,” the Polish ministry spokesperson said.

Jaroslaw Adamowski is the Poland correspondent for Defense News.

波兰华沙——本月，俄罗斯和白俄罗斯启动了“西部 2025”联合军事演习，旨在加强北约东部边界的军事力量部署，并直接模拟对波兰和波罗的海国家的攻击。与此同时，这四个东欧盟国也在积极筹备自己的演习，以应对针对其基础设施的低强度攻击。

爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛和波兰计划效仿“西部2025”演习，组织约4万名士兵参加演习。

今年的演习定于9月12日至16日举行。俄罗斯曾利用2021年9月举行的上一次“西方”（俄语为“Zapad”）演习，部署了最终于次年2月入侵乌克兰的部队。

联合军演通常每两年举行一次，但克里姆林宫决定取消2023年的演习，因为俄罗斯在为侵略乌克兰的军事行动筹集兵力和装备方面遇到了困难。尽管莫斯科的军事力量仍然主要集中在正在进行的入侵行动中，但预计“西部-2025”演习将包括核武器和俄罗斯制造的高超音速导弹。

据立陶宛国防部称，与白俄罗斯和俄罗斯接壤的立陶宛即将举行的演习已使该国的安全机构进入高度戒备状态。

立陶宛国防部在一份声明中告诉《防务新闻》：“预计今年将有多达3万名士兵参加演习。其中约6000至8000人将驻扎在白俄罗斯，数千人将驻扎在俄罗斯的加里宁格勒飞地。尽管有传言称将增派更多兵力，但立陶宛情报部门报告称并未出现此类增兵。”

立陶宛国防部表示，该国军队正与北约盟国密切关注局势，并已做好充分准备，必要时将采取应对措施。“立陶宛将在盟国的支持下，同步举行演习，以确保国家安全。”

立陶宛国防部长雷蒙达斯·瓦伊克什诺拉斯将军宣布，在“西部2025”演习期间，波罗的海三国将与波兰联手，在该地区发起约4万盟军的联合演习，以应对……

“立陶宛方面，人数不宜过多猜测，但估计在1万人左右，再加上盟军的6000人左右。这不仅适用于陆地，也适用于海上和空中，”瓦伊克什诺拉斯告诉当地广播公司LRT。

这位将军表示，“根据目前的计划，波罗的海国家加上波兰在‘西部2025’方面将拥有比我们通过侦察平台所能观察到的更多的活动部件、人员和其他能力”。

波兰是该地区最大的盟友，与白俄罗斯和俄罗斯加里宁格勒接壤。据波兰国防部称，波兰正与其北约伙伴合作，确保对即将举行的演习进行监督，同时也在欧洲安全与合作组织（欧安组织）的框架内采取行动。

波兰国防部发言人告诉《防务新闻》：“在当前对乌克兰战争的背景下，俄罗斯和白俄罗斯即将举行的‘西部-2025’联合军演，进一步表明了两国咄咄逼人的行为以及两国合作的深化。”

据波兰外交部代表称，华沙方面认为，在“西部2025”军演期间，莫斯科和明斯克挑衅的风险将会增加。这些挑衅可能包括对盟友的网络攻击、针对北约基础设施的GPS干扰，或旨在测试波兰应对能力的小规模军事事件。

上个月，白俄罗斯国防部长维克托·赫列宁告诉该国官方通讯社白通社，即将举行的训练将部分侧重于核武器和“奥列什尼克”中程弹道导弹的操作。俄罗斯军队在对乌克兰的袭击中使用了后者。

“当然，在‘西部’演习的框架内，我们将与俄罗斯同行一起演练使用这类武器的计划安排，”赫列宁说。

随着白俄罗斯卷入俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争，明斯克与莫斯科的军事合作日益密切。2022年8月，白俄罗斯独裁者亚历山大·卢卡申科宣布，俄罗斯已对其战斗机进行升级，使其能够携带战术核武器。莫斯科还同意向明斯克转让“伊斯坎德尔-M”战术导弹系统，该系统可使用常规和核弹道导弹及巡航导弹。

波兰国防部发言人表示：“波兰武装部队正持续监控邻国的所有军事活动，并准备对这些活动可能造成的任何安全威胁做出适当回应。”

Jaroslaw Adamowski 是《防务新闻》驻波兰记者。