US midterms: 3 days to go – What latest polls say as early voting surges

More than 43 million Americans have voted early as Democrats lead national opinion polls and Trump prepares for final rallies.

US Midterms 2026 Latest: Trump backtracks on rallies

With three days to go before the US midterm elections , Democrats are leading national polls as millions of Americans cast their ballots early.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has announced he will carry on with his campaigns in Kansas and Iowa as both parties make their final push ahead of Election Day on Tuesday.

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Here is what you need to know:

What do the US midterm polls say?

According to RealClearPolling’s latest national congressional ballot average, Democrats still lead Republicans by 8.2 percentage points. Democrats lead by 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent.

A separate Economist/YouGov survey released on Thursday found that 44 percent of registered voters expect Democrats to control the House of Representatives after the election, compared with 31 percent who expect Republicans to retain control.

Expectations were much closer for the Senate, with 39 percent expecting a Democratic majority and 36 percent a Republican one.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told Al Jazeera that the Democratic lead in national polling suggests a different picture for the two chambers.

“A big Democratic lead in House generic ballot polling suggests that the House is almost certain to flip to Democrats,” Kondik said.

“However, that does not mean the Senate is going to flip – it certainly could, but it is much more up in the air.”

How many Americans have already voted?

According to an Associated Press analysis released on Friday, more than 43 million Americans had voted early in person or returned mail ballots five days before Election Day.

That’s nearly 10 million more than at the same point before the 2022 midterms, with some of the biggest increases recorded in states having competitive Senate races.

In Texas , more than 6.3 million people had voted early as of Wednesday, compared with 4.2 million at the same point in 2022, an increase of 50 percent.

Al Jazeera’s Phil Lavelle reported from Houston on Friday that voters were continuing to arrive at polling stations as the state’s early voting period was drawing to a close.

In Georgia , more than 2.5 million ballots had been cast by Friday morning, surpassing the 2.3 million recorded during the early voting period in 2022, according to Al Jazeera’s Matthew Torres.

Torres reported long queues at an Atlanta polling station and more participation among young voters.

“We all just really want a better future for everyone, especially like the next generation,” one young voter told Al Jazeera.

Another young voter pointed to social media as a reason for the increased interest in the election. “Definitely social media. Social media and the media has put voting in the limelight,” the voter said.

Democratic political strategist Celinda Lake said many voters were looking for change.

“You got a lot of voters who say, ‘I’m going to do a Hail Mary for change, but I hope you do something,'” she said.

Early voting also increased by more than 30 percent compared with the same period in 2022 in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas, according to the AP analysis.

However, early turnout figures don’t show which candidates voters have chosen or what the final results will be.

What’s happened on the campaign trail in the past 24 hours?

Trump reversed his decision to cancel two weekend rallies in Kansas and Iowa, with the White House confirming that both events would go ahead on Sunday.

The rallies had been cancelled on Thursday, with the White House saying Trump would instead take part in nearly 20 telephone campaign events.

But less than a day later, the president put the rallies back in his schedule.

Al Jazeera’s Tanya Nouri reported that Trump’s campaign team sees his personal appearances as a way to mobilise Republican voters.

“He is energised to go back and rally in person on Sunday,” Nouri said, quoting her campaign sources.

She also said that Trump’s team believes his appearances have a stimulating effect on Republican supporters, especially in states where the Republicans are running for Senate seats against strong opposition.

Trump also campaigned in Florida on Friday, where Republicans are defending Senate and gubernatorial seats.

“You got to vote. Bad things happen when you get too confident, right? So let’s pretend they’re one point down,” Trump told the rally crowd.

US President Donald Trump reacts during a midterm campaign rally at Ocean Center in Daytona Beach [Evan Vucci/Reuters]

Meanwhile, in Texas, Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico were focusing their final campaign efforts on Houston, according to Al Jazeera’s Lavelle.

Paxton cancelled an event in El Paso to concentrate on Harris County, Texas’s most populous county, as early voting drew to a close.

On Friday, former President Bill Clinton campaigned for the Democratic Party in Mississippi.

He also urged people to vote.

“I can’t tell you how many people I care for that have lost in Mississippi because of those who did not vote at all,” Clinton said.

Where will Trump and the Democrats campaign this weekend?

Trump is scheduled to hold back-to-back rallies in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday. In Iowa, he is expected to support Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson, and later travel to Kansas, where he will campaign with Senator Roger Marshall.

Recent polls have shown competitive Senate races in traditionally Republican states. In Kansas, Marshall faces a tough race against his Democratic challenger, megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton.

An Emerson College poll suggests that Hamilton is leading with 49 percent support, while Marshall has 45 percent. Democrats are also making their final appeals to voters. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear will join Ohio governor candidate Amy Acton at a campaign event.

Democrat Senate nominee for Alaska Mary Peltola is also expected to attend a rally in Bethel, Alaska.

Alaska’s Senate race is one of seven key toss-ups that will likely decide whether Republicans keep their majority in Congress’s upper chamber.

The race has been complicated by a dispute involving two candidates named Dan Sullivan. Trump has accused Democrats of recruiting an independent candidate with the same name as the Republican senator to confuse voters and draw support away from him.

The Department of Justice has taken legal action over the dispute, while Peltola has denied involvement in the alleged recruitment effort.

Separately, Republican candidate Mike Rogers is also expected to campaign with House Speaker Mike Johnson over the weekend.

超过4300万美国人已提前投票，民主党在全国民意调查中领先，而特朗普正准备举行最后的竞选集会。

2026年美国中期选举最新消息：特朗普在集会问题上态度有所转变

距离美国中期选举还有三天，随着数百万美国人提前投票，民主党在全国民调中领先。

与此同时，唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布，他将继续在堪萨斯州和爱荷华州开展竞选活动，两党都在为周二的选举日做最后的冲刺。

佐治亚州中期选举（共3项）：为何它是美国的关键战场

加州中期选举须知（共3条，此为第2条）

列表 3/3：虚假民调暴露美国中期选举漏洞

以下是您需要了解的内容：

美国中期选举民调结果如何？

根据RealClearPolling最新的全国国会选举平均民调，民主党仍领先共和党8.2个百分点。民主党以51.4%对43.2%的优势领先。

周四公布的另一项《经济学人》/YouGov 调查发现，44% 的注册选民预计民主党将在选举后控制众议院，而预计共和党将继续控制众议院的选民比例为 31%。

对于参议院的选举结果，各方预期则更为接近，39%的人预计民主党将获得多数席位，36%的人预计共和党将获得多数席位。

弗吉尼亚大学政治中心萨巴托水晶球的执行主编凯尔·康迪克告诉半岛电视台，民主党在全国民调中的领先优势表明，两院的形势可能有所不同。

“众议院普选民调显示民主党大幅领先，这表明众议院几乎肯定会转而由民主党控制，”康迪克说。

“然而，这并不意味着参议院一定会易手——当然有可能，但结果还很难说。”

已经有多少美国人投票了？

据美联社周五发布的一项分析显示，超过 4300 万美国人在选举日五天前亲自提前投票或寄回了邮寄选票。

这比 2022 年中期选举前同期增加了近 1000 万，其中参议院选举竞争激烈的州增幅最大。

截至周三，德克萨斯州已有超过 630 万人提前投票，而 2022 年同期为 420 万人，增幅达 50%。

半岛电视台记者菲尔·拉维尔周五从休斯顿报道称，随着该州提前投票期接近尾声，选民们仍在陆续抵达投票站。

据半岛电视台记者马修·托雷斯报道，截至周五上午，佐治亚州已投出超过 250 万张选票，超过了 2022 年提前投票期间记录的 230 万张选票。

托雷斯报道称，亚特兰大的一个投票站排起了长队，年轻选民的参与度更高。

一位年轻选民告诉半岛电视台：“我们都真心希望每个人都能拥有更美好的未来，尤其是下一代。”

另一位年轻选民指出，社交媒体是人们对选举兴趣日益浓厚的原因之一。“绝对是社交媒体。社交媒体和媒体让投票成为关注焦点，”这位选民说道。

民主党政治策略师塞琳达·莱克表示，许多选民都在寻求变革。

她说：“很多选民会说，‘我要孤注一掷，争取改变，但我希望你们能做点什么。’”

据美联社分析，缅因州、密歇根州、北卡罗来纳州和堪萨斯州的提前投票人数也比 2022 年同期增加了 30% 以上。

然而，早期投票率数据并不能显示选民选择了哪些候选人，也不能显示最终结果会是什么。

过去24小时竞选活动中发生了什么？

特朗普推翻了取消周末在堪萨斯州和爱荷华州两场竞选集会的决定，白宫确认这两场活动将于周日如期举行。

周四，集会已被取消，白宫表示，特朗普将改为参加近 20 场电话竞选活动。

但不到一天后，总统就把集会重新安排进了日程。

半岛电视台记者塔尼亚·努里报道称，特朗普的竞选团队认为他亲自露面是动员共和党选民的一种方式。

“他精力充沛，准备周日亲自回去参加集会，”努里援引其竞选团队消息人士的话说。

她还表示，特朗普的团队认为他的露面能够刺激共和党支持者，尤其是在共和党人竞选参议院席位面临强劲挑战的州。

周五，特朗普还在佛罗里达州进行了竞选活动，共和党人正在那里捍卫参议院和州长席位。

“你们必须去投票。过于自信会带来不好的结果，对吧？所以我们就假设他们只落后一个百分点吧，”特朗普对集会人群说道。

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在代托纳海滩海洋中心举行的中期竞选集会上发表讲话。[埃文·武奇/路透社]

与此同时，据半岛电视台记者拉维尔报道，在德克萨斯州，共和党参议员候选人肯·帕克斯顿和民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科正将最后的竞选精力集中在休斯顿。

随着提前投票接近尾声，帕克斯顿取消了在埃尔帕索的活动，转而集中精力在德克萨斯州人口最多的哈里斯县开展竞选活动。

周五，前总统比尔·克林顿在密西西比州为民主党助选。

他还敦促人们去投票。

“我无法告诉你，有多少我关心的人因为那些根本没有投票的人而在密西西比州失去了他们，”克林顿说。

特朗普和民主党人本周末将在哪里进行竞选活动？

特朗普计划于周日在爱荷华州和堪萨斯州举行两场竞选集会。在爱荷华州，他预计将支持共和党参议员候选人阿什利·欣森，之后前往堪萨斯州，与参议员罗杰·马歇尔一起进行竞选活动。

近期民调显示，在传统共和党州，参议院席位争夺异常激烈。在堪萨斯州，马歇尔将面临民主党挑战者、大型教会牧师亚当·汉密尔顿的严峻考验。

艾默生学院的一项民调显示，汉密尔顿以49%的支持率领先，马歇尔的支持率为45%。民主党人也在进行最后的拉票努力。肯塔基州州长安迪·贝希尔将与俄亥俄州州长候选人艾米·阿克顿一同出席竞选活动。

预计阿拉斯加州民主党参议员候选人玛丽·佩尔托拉也将出席在阿拉斯加州贝塞尔举行的集会。

阿拉斯加州的参议员竞选是七个关键的摇摆选区之一，这些选区的结果很可能决定共和党能否保住其在国会上议院的多数席位。

这场竞选因两名同名候选人之间的争议而变得复杂。特朗普指责民主党招募了一位与这位共和党参议员同名的独立候选人，目的是混淆选民，分散对他的支持。

司法部已就此纠纷采取法律行动，而佩尔托拉否认参与了所谓的招募活动。

另外，共和党候选人迈克·罗杰斯预计也将在周末与众议院议长迈克·约翰逊一起参加竞选活动。