‘Paycheck to paycheck’: Texas border voters shed parties amid economic woes

Voters reassess 2024 swing towards Trump as Republicans and Democrats grapple for Rio Grande Valley votes.

Voters wait in line to cast ballots in the US midterm election in McAllen, Texas [Joseph Stepansky/Al Jazeera]

Rio Grande Valley, Texas – Jesus Robles sells mechanical bulls.

Mainstays of bars and dance halls, once used to train rodeo riders, the bucking behemoths point to the Rio Grande Valley’s history, where Mexican and Texan Ranchero culture have long intertwined.

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But the business has also been a nagging reminder of Robles’s 2024 vote, when he cast his ballot for US President Donald Trump, expecting an economic boost that would allow the company to flourish.

“I have lost tonnes of business due to our president right now,” he said, blaming Trump’s tariffs and rising fuel prices . “I ship a lot. The price of freight has doubled…. Some of my clients have been affected by immigration raids.”

Voters like Robles in 2024 helped reinforce the notion that the Rio Grande Valley, a Latino-dominated area long seen as reliably Democratic, was shifting Republican, bucking liberal hopes the ever-growing demographic would finally turn Texas blue.

His about-face in 2026, he said, underscored that no party should take voters in the region for granted.

“We focus on other countries. We focus on taxes,” said Robles, who cast his ballot on the final day of early voting in Alamo, Texas, about 50km (30 miles) from the US-Mexico border.

“But at the end of the day, I don’t feel none of these governments really help us, the people,” he added. “Because trust me, we work hard, the middle-class people work hard, and we’re the ones that get screwed the most.”

‘I did vote for Trump’

The Rio Grande Valley has become a battleground within a battleground this election season, with Republicans eyeing Trump’s 2024 gains – in which he won 14 of the 18 counties along the US-Mexico border – as evidence of a wider red shift.

They have set their sights on flipping at least two Democratic-controlled seats along the border, currently held by Representatives Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar, while holding onto a third, held by Republican Monica de la Cruz.

Democrats, riding on Trump’s high disapproval ratings among Latinos, who account for about 40 percent of the state’s population, are hoping to elect the first member of the party to statewide office in Texas since 1994. Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico is running against Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa, meanwhile, is seeking to unseat Republican incumbent Greg Abbott.

While once considered a Democratic workhorse, the Rio Grande Valley has found itself increasingly out of step with both political parties, according to Alvaro Corral, an assistant professor of politics at the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley.

Campaign signs are seen in Alamo, Texas [Joseph Stepansky/Al Jazeera]

Many have drifted away from a Democratic Party once embodied in figures like former President Bill Clinton, who captured “a mixture of traditional working-class economic platform that we associate with the Democratic Party, the New Deal Democrat sort of style, mixed with a little bit of, like, social conservatism, and being quite law-and-order focused”, Corral explained.

Some voters, in turn, found common ground in the religiously-dominated economic populism of Trump’s Republican Party, Corral said, only to find themselves alienated by his administration’s aggressive domestic immigration enforcement and a lack of pocketbook relief.

At the Alamo polling site, 40-year-old Natalie, an education worker who declined to give her last name out of professional concern, grimaced when she recounted her 2024 vote.

“I did vote for Trump,” she said. “It was immigration and the economy.”

Jesus Robles says he regrets voting for Trump in 2024 [Joseph Stepansky/Al Jazeera]

But seeing her students grapple with family separation from Trump’s mass deportation drive , and watching the price of diesel to fuel her truck continue to tick up amid the US-Israel war on Iran, made her come to regret her vote.

“I just want people with empathy,” she said.

Voter Gabriel Ruiz pointed to the high cost of housing as a unifying issue, noting houses can cost between $400,000 and $500,000, a rate previously unheard of in the valley.

He said it has become common for voters to think beyond a party.

“It’s always going to be about the economy, job growth, being able to keep jobs here, and for the American people to flourish on their own and be able to afford housing, healthcare,” the 24-year-old said.

‘Paycheck to paycheck here’

Michael Mireles, the director of civil engagement at La Union Del Pueblo Entero (LUPE), a local organisation that works to turn out Latino voters, said 2024 was, in part, a result of Democrats failing to conduct meaningful outreach in the Rio Grande Valley.

Only about 40 percent of registered voters cast ballots that year.

“Democrats in the last cycle, they were not trying to reach new voters. They were not trying to talk to people who are typically left out of Valley politics, which I think is a huge mistake,” he said.

“Because the work that needs to happen is with the people who have not been activated politically.”

A house in a colonia in Edinburg, Texas [Joseph Stepansky/Al Jazeera]

Advocates believe the region is ripe for that kind of engagement.

The poverty level in the Rio Grande Valley hovers around 21 percent, the highest rate in the state and twice the national rate. It has remained nearly unchanged for a decade. As of 2023, about 37 percent of Rio Grande Valley residents did not have health insurance.

The Rio Grande Valley also has the highest concentration of so-called “colonias” of any part of the state. Colonias began as informal settlements in the 1950s, with the majority of modern residents US citizens.

About 1,200 colonias in the area are typically unincorporated neighbourhoods, meaning they do not fall under local jurisdictions and can lack basic infrastructure.

LUPE is among the groups that do voter outreach and education in those neighbourhoods.

Speaking to Al Jazeera from her home on the Erling colonia in Donna, Texas, 36-year-old Angeles Arguelles recounted not taking her sick children to the doctor recently because she could not afford the medication. Her husband works two jobs as a dishwasher, and the family has no insurance.

Despite being a US citizen, she said she has never voted.

“It just feels corrupt,” she said. “I just keep to myself and my family.”

Angeles Arguelles says she has never voted in a US election [Joseph Stepansky/Al Jazeera]

At a nearby colonia in the city of Edinburg, 52-year-old Mario Hernandez, a restaurant worker, said his neighbourhood has become increasingly politically engaged.

“I’m not a Republican. I’m not Democrat. But it depends on who it is,” he said.

Hernandez said he had cast his ballot for all Democrats this year, motivated in part by concerns for his neighbours without health insurance.

“A lot of elderly can’t survive on their income,” he said. “Most of us live paycheck to paycheck here.”

共和党和民主党争夺格兰德河谷选票，选民重新评估 2024 年特朗普的选情走向。

在美国德克萨斯州麦卡伦市，选民们排队等待参加中期选举投票。[约瑟夫·斯捷潘斯基/半岛电视台]

德克萨斯州格兰德河谷——耶稣·罗布尔斯出售机械牛。

这些曾经用于训练牛仔竞技骑手的巨型烈马，如今已成为酒吧和舞厅的常客，它们见证了格兰德河谷的历史，墨西哥和德克萨斯牧场文化在这里长期交融。

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但这项业务也一直让罗布尔斯想起他在 2024 年的投票，当时他投票支持美国总统唐纳德·特朗普，希望经济增长能够让公司蓬勃发展。

“由于我们总统的政策，我现在损失惨重，”他说道，并将矛头指向特朗普的关税和不断上涨的燃油价格。“我的货运量很大。运费翻了一番……我的一些客户还受到了移民突袭的影响。”

2024 年，像罗布尔斯这样的选民帮助巩固了这样一种观念：长期以来被视为民主党铁票仓的拉丁裔占主导地位的格兰德河谷地区正在转向共和党，这与自由派人士希望不断增长的拉丁裔人口最终会使德克萨斯州变蓝的愿望背道而驰。

他表示，他在 2026 年的立场转变凸显了任何政党都不应想当然地认为该地区的选民会支持他。

“我们关注其他国家。我们关注税收，”罗布尔斯说道。他在德克萨斯州阿拉莫提前投票的最后一天投下了选票，阿拉莫距离美墨边境约 50 公里（30 英里）。

“但说到底，我觉得这些政府都没真正帮到我们这些普通民众，”他补充道。“因为相信我，我们中产阶级辛勤工作，但我们却是最吃亏的那群人。”

“我的确投票给了特朗普。”

在本届选举季，格兰德河谷已成为战场中的战场，共和党人将特朗普在 2024 年的胜利——他赢得了美墨边境 18 个县中的 14 个——视为更广泛的红色转变的证据。

他们的目标是至少拿下边境地区两个由民主党控制的席位，这两个席位目前分别由众议员维森特·冈萨雷斯和亨利·奎利亚尔占据，同时保住第三个席位，该席位目前由共和党人莫妮卡·德拉克鲁兹占据。

民主党人希望借助特朗普在拉丁裔选民中极低的支持率（拉丁裔选民约占德克萨斯州人口的40%），选出自1994年以来首位在德克萨斯州担任全州公职的民主党候选人。民主党参议员候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico）将与共和党籍州检察长肯·帕克斯顿（Ken Paxton）展开角逐。与此同时，民主党州长候选人吉娜·伊诺霍萨（Gina Hinojosa）则力图挑战共和党现任州长格雷格·阿博特（Greg Abbott）。

据德克萨斯大学里奥格兰德河谷分校政治学助理教授阿尔瓦罗·科拉尔称，里奥格兰德河谷曾经是民主党的摇篮，但现在却发现自己与两党的步调越来越不合。

在德克萨斯州阿拉莫可以看到竞选标语。[约瑟夫·斯捷潘斯基/半岛电视台]

科拉尔解释说，许多人已经远离了曾经以比尔·克林顿等前总统为代表的民主党，克林顿“融合了我们与民主党联系在一起的传统工人阶级经济纲领、新政民主党风格，以及一些社会保守主义，并且非常注重法律和秩序”。

科拉尔表示，一些选民在特朗普领导的共和党以宗教为主导的经济民粹主义中找到了共同点，但却发现自己被特朗普政府咄咄逼人的国内移民执法和缺乏经济救济措施所疏远。

在阿拉莫投票站，40岁的教育工作者娜塔莉（出于职业考虑，她拒绝透露自己的姓氏）在回顾她2024年的投票时，露出了痛苦的表情。

“我的确投票给了特朗普，”她说。“主要是因为移民和经济问题。”

耶稣·罗布尔斯表示，他后悔在2024年投票给特朗普。[约瑟夫·斯捷潘斯基/半岛电视台]

但看到她的学生们因特朗普的大规模驱逐行动而被迫与家人分离，以及在美以对伊朗的战争中，她卡车所需的柴油价格持续上涨，这让她开始后悔自己的投票。

“我只是想要有同理心的人，”她说。

选民加布里埃尔·鲁伊斯指出，高昂的住房成本是一个团结的问题，他指出，房屋的价格可能在 40 万至 50 万美元之间，这是山谷地区以前从未听说过的价格。

他说，选民不再局限于政党已经变得很普遍了。

这位24岁的年轻人说：“一切都将围绕经济、就业增长、能否保住工作岗位以及美国人民能否自力更生、能否负担得起住房和医疗保健展开。”

“这里是月光族”

致力于动员拉丁裔选民的当地组织 La Union Del Pueblo Entero (LUPE) 的公民参与主任 Michael Mireles 表示，2024 年的选举结果部分是由于民主党未能对格兰德河谷地区进行有意义的宣传所致。

那一年，只有大约40%的登记选民参与了投票。

他说：“上一届选举中，民主党人没有努力争取新选民，也没有尝试与那些通常被排除在山谷政治之外的人们对话，我认为这是一个巨大的错误。”

“因为真正需要开展的工作是与那些尚未被政治激活的人们一起进行的。”

德克萨斯州爱丁堡一处殖民地的房屋 [Joseph Stepansky/半岛电视台]

支持者认为该地区已具备开展此类合作的条件。

里奥格兰德河谷的贫困率徘徊在21%左右，是加州最高的，也是全国平均水平的两倍。这一数字在过去十年几乎没有变化。截至2023年，里奥格兰德河谷约有37%的居民没有医疗保险。

里奥格兰德河谷也是该州所谓“殖民地”最集中的地区。殖民地起源于20世纪50年代的非正式定居点，如今的大多数居民都是美国公民。

该地区约有 1200 个殖民地，通常属于非建制社区，这意味着它们不属于地方管辖范围，并且可能缺乏基本的基础设施。

LUPE是负责在这些社区开展选民宣传和教育的团体之一。

36岁的安吉丽丝·阿圭列斯在德克萨斯州唐娜市埃尔林社区的家中接受半岛电视台采访时表示，她最近因为负担不起药费，没有带生病的孩子去看医生。她的丈夫打两份工，其中一份是洗碗工，全家没有医疗保险。

尽管她是美国公民，但她表示自己从未投过票。

“感觉这里很腐败，”她说。“我只想和家人待在一起。”

安吉莉丝·阿圭列斯表示她从未在美国大选中投票。[约瑟夫·斯捷潘斯基/半岛电视台]

在爱丁堡市附近的一个居民区，52 岁的餐馆员工马里奥·埃尔南德斯表示，他所在的社区越来越积极地参与政治活动。

“我既不是共和党人，也不是民主党人。但这要看是谁，”他说。

埃尔南德斯表示，他今年把票全部投给了民主党候选人，部分原因是出于对没有医疗保险的邻居们的担忧。

他说：“很多老年人靠收入无法维持生计。我们大多数人都是月光族。”