Panama Canal may cut ship traffic further as El Niño strengthens

Canal authorities may further reduce ship traffic if a strengthening El Niño worsens the country’s drought.

The Panama Canal, connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, is pivotal to global trade and maritime logistics [Alex Visbal/Getty]

Panama could impose further cuts on the number of ships sailing through the Panama Canal, an official said, as a strengthening El Niño raises fears of water shortages at one of the world’s busiest maritime trade routes.

The warning from the new administrator of the Panama Canal Authority, Ilya Espino de Marotta, on Monday came after the government declared a nationwide state of emergency over El Niño on August 26.

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The canal, which handles 5 percent of global maritime trade, has already reduced the maximum number of ships allowed through daily, from 36 last month to 34 starting on September 4.

A further reduction will start on September 15, when the limit will be 32 ships.

Espino, who took over as administrator of the Panama Canal Authority on Monday, told the AFP news agency that restrictions could be tightened again if the drought does not subside.

She said she was not ruling out the possibility that in February or March, the limits “could be reduced to 29 or something similar”.

Ships wait in the ocean near Panama, Central America [File: Priscila Zambotto/Getty]

She said rainfall over the coming months would determine whether further restrictions are needed.

“Depending on how much rain falls in September, October and November – the three critical months – that will determine whether I need to lower any slots further in January, February or March,” she told the Reuters news agency last week.

The restrictions are not expected to become as severe as during the 2023-24 drought, when daily crossings fell as low as 22.

The Panama Canal depends on freshwater to operate the locks that raise and lower vessels travelling between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Water comes mainly from the artificial Gatun and Alajuela lakes, which are replenished by rainfall.

An average transit consumes about 200 million litres (about 53 million gallons) of water.

That dependence makes the 80km (50-mile) canal particularly vulnerable to prolonged dry weather, and levels in both reservoirs have already dropped with the onset of El Niño.

This year’s El Niño – which affects weather patterns and pushes up global temperatures – is expected to be the strongest since record-keeping began four decades ago.

The Panama Canal Miraflores Locks system has huge water chambers and lock gates [Nico De Pasquale Photography/Getty]

Apart from reducing the number of vessels transiting the Panama Canal, authorities have also reduced their maximum draft, from 15.2 metres to 14.6 metres (50 feet to 48 feet).

Draft ⁠is the depth of water a ship needs to float safely. A lower draft limit means vessels may have to carry less cargo to pass through the canal.

The disruption comes at a sensitive time for global shipping.

The Panama Canal’s importance has increased as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East has fallen sharply amid the US-Israel war on Iran. Some vessels have recently paid more than $1m at auction to secure transit ‌slots through the canal.

Panama is betting on a new reservoir at Rio Indio – a river in the country’s centre – as a longer-term solution.

The project is intended to provide water for canal operations and more than half of Panama’s population for the next 50 years, but it is expected to take five to six years to complete.

Espino, the new administrator, told Reuters that the reservoir would “ensure that the canal never again has to resort to lowering the draft or reducing the number of transits”.

如果厄尔尼诺现象加剧导致该国旱情恶化，运河管理部门可能会进一步减少船舶通行量。

连接大西洋和太平洋的巴拿马运河对全球贸易和海上物流至关重要。[Alex Visbal/Getty]

一位官员表示，由于厄尔尼诺现象加剧，人们担心世界上最繁忙的海上贸易航线之一——巴拿马运河——会出现缺水情况，巴拿马可能会进一步削减通过该运河的船只数量。

巴拿马运河管理局新任局长伊利亚·埃斯皮诺·德·马罗塔周一发出警告，此前政府于 8 月 26 日宣布因厄尔尼诺现象在全国范围内进入紧急状态。

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该运河承担着全球 5% 的海上贸易，已经减少了每天允许通过的船舶数量上限，从上个月的 36 艘减少到 9 月 4 日开始的 34 艘。

9月15日起将进一步减少船舶数量，届时船舶数量上限将降至32艘。

周一接任巴拿马运河管理局局长的埃斯皮诺告诉法新社，如果旱情没有缓解，限制措施可能会再次收紧。

她表示不排除在二月或三月将人数限制“减少到 29 人或类似数量”的可能性。

船只在巴拿马附近的海洋中等待 [图片：Priscila Zambotto/Getty]

她表示，未来几个月的降雨情况将决定是否需要进一步的限制措施。

“9月、10月和11月这三个关键月份的降雨量将决定我是否需要在1月、2月或3月进一步减少任何航班时刻表，”她上周告诉路透社。

预计限制措施不会像 2023-24 年干旱期间那样严格，当时每日过境人数低至 22 人。

巴拿马运河依靠淡水来运行船闸，这些船闸负责升降往返于大西洋和太平洋之间的船只。淡水主要来自人工湖加通湖和阿拉胡埃拉湖，这两个湖泊的水量都来自降雨。

平均而言，一次公交运输大约消耗 2 亿升（约 5300 万加仑）水。

这种依赖性使得这条 80 公里（50 英里）长的运河特别容易受到长期干旱天气的影响，随着厄尔尼诺现象的到来，两个水库的水位都已经下降。

今年的厄尔尼诺现象（影响天气模式并推高全球气温）预计将是自四十年前开始记录以来最强的一次。

巴拿马运河米拉弗洛雷斯船闸系统拥有巨大的水室和闸门 [Nico De Pasquale Photography/Getty]

除了减少通过巴拿马运河的船只数量外，当局还减少了船只的最大吃水深度，从 15.2 米减少到 14.6 米（50 英尺减少到 48 英尺）。

吃水深度是指船舶安全航行所需的水深。吃水深度越小，船舶通过运河可能需要装载的货物越少。

此次中断正值全球航运业的敏感时期。

随着美以对伊朗战争的爆发，途经中东霍尔木兹海峡的船只数量急剧下降，巴拿马运河的重要性日益凸显。近期，一些船只甚至在拍卖会上花费超过100万美元，以获得通过巴拿马运河的通行权。

巴拿马寄希望于在该国中部的印第奥河修建一座新水库，作为一项长期的解决方案。

该项目旨在为运河运营和巴拿马一半以上的人口提供未来 50 年的用水，但预计需要五到六年才能完成。

新任行政长官埃斯皮诺告诉路透社，该水库将“确保运河再也不用降低吃水深度或减少通行次数”。