If a blue wave is coming, here are the races where it will start

Midterm elections are almost always bad for the president’s party. Sometimes they are very bad for the president’s party. And every so often they are historically bad.

The first outcome seems guaranteed on Tuesday. Republicans are increasingly wary of the second. And more Democrats are daring to dream of the third.

Late polling mostly provides Democrats reason for optimism . Attitudes toward the president have become the most important factor shaping midterm outcomes, and President Donald Trump’s approval rating today is much lower than in 2018 when Republicans lost over 40 House seats; it’s well below the levels of Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton before their parties suffered major midterm losses. Surveys in the campaign’s final days have found Democrats showing strength in states that Republicans have long dominated, including Texas, Ohio, and even Kansas and South Carolina.

But precisely because the electoral battlefield is concentrated so heavily in Republican-leaning terrain, most Democrats remain nervous about the outcome, especially in the Senate. In most of the states and House districts that both parties are fully contesting, Republican voters still outnumber Democrats; if the combination of Trump’s campaign blitz and the heavy GOP spending advantage can mobilize more of them than pollsters now expect, that would erase some of the narrow Democratic advantages in red places.

“The best news for our side is that the vaunted Republican surge at the end that many would have expected given all their money just hasn’t happened,” says Paul Maslin, a longtime Democratic pollster. “In these double-digit red states, it’s simply a case of are (our leads) baked in enough for us to pull through?”

What follows is an election night guide organized, in effect, by degree of difficulty. Moving from East to West, it’s my attempt to identify House, Senate and governor races that indicate whether Democrats are on track for a good night, a very good night, or a historic breakthrough comparable to the Republican landslides in 1994 and 2010, and the Democratic “thumpin’” in 2006.

Conversely, if Democrats on Tuesday lose more than a handful of the races in the “good” category, it will indicate the results could leave them disappointed, or worse.

Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters

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The first big indications of the night’s direction will come primarily from races in the East, because polls close earliest in the region.

In Virginia, where polls close at 7 p.m. (all closing times are Eastern), a Democratic win in the VA-2 House race will be a sign the party is on track for a solid performance. In that race, former Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria is pursuing a rematch against Republican Jen Kiggans, who beat her in 2022 in a district Trump carried by less than a point in 2024. Not winning this race would be an early sign that Democrats are underperforming.

If Democrats also win the VA-1 congressional seat, that will augur a larger wave. In that seat, Republican Rob Wittman is straining to hold off Democrat Shannon Taylor in a seat Trump carried by five points. If former Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello ousts Republican Rep. John McGuire, who is finishing his first term in VA-5 — a seat Trump carried by 12 points — it will signal the party is on track to win even more than the 235 seats they captured in 2018, predicts Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the Sabato’s Crystal Ball newsletter published by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

Pennsylvania, where polls close at 8 p.m., offers a similar progression. Democrats will be on track for a solid performance if they beat Republican incumbents in Ryan Mackenzie in PA-7 and Scott Perry in PA-10 , two heavily blue-collar districts that Trump won by five points or less. Republicans will grow even more nervous if Democrat Paige Cognetti ousts first-term GOP Rep. Rob Bresnahan in PA-8 , another heavily blue-collar district in Northeast Pennsylvania that Trump won by over eight points.

On paper, PA-1 should offer Democrats their best chance of flipping a House seat in the commonwealth. It’s crowded with the well-educated, upper middle-class voters who have recoiled from the GOP in the Trump era. But GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who was first elected in 2016, has for years effectively walked the tightrope of distancing from Trump without fully breaking from him. If Democrat Bob Harvie beats Fitzpatrick, that will be another sign of a historic wave — and an indication that white-collar voters disenchanted with Trump are demanding more unconditional opposition to his agenda.

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“This is the kind of stuff that happens in a wave,” says Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst for Decision Desk HQ, a political website. “An incumbent has been strong; he’s been able to distinguish himself from his party enough to outperform (the district’s partisan lean). And then the environment gets bad enough and … suddenly it’s a lot harder to keep yourself separate from the party.”

In Maine, where polls also close at 8 p.m., a comfortable victory for Democrat Hannah Pingree in the Maine governor race will be a sign that the party is meeting its marks for a solid night. If progressive Democrat Matthew Dunlap beats former GOP Gov. Paul LePage to hold the heavily blue-collar and rural ME-2 Congressional District, that will signal an even better night for Democrats.

The Maine Senate contest between Republican incumbdent Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson will be the most closely watched race in the state — and indeed the entire Northeast. Collins is the last Republican senator left in the 19 states that have voted against Trump in all three of his presidential races. And she was the only Republican Senate incumbent or challenger during Trump’s first term who won in a state where the exit polls showed more voters disapproved than approved of his job performance.

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Jackson has been a solid, though uneven, campaigner since Democrats tapped him as a replacement candidate when their primary winner Graham Platner was capsized by scandal. If Jackson wins, it will be another sign that Democrats are exceeding expectations — and that the Trump undertow (his disapproval hit 67% in the latest CNN Maine poll last week ) is submerging even the most skillful and entrenched Republicans in swing or blue-tilting areas.

Elsewhere in the region, a win for Democrat Rebecca Bennett over Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. in the NJ-7 House race, another well-educated district Trump won narrowly, would show the party on track for a good night. If Democrat Cait Conley beats GOP Rep. Mike Lawler , a more formidable opponent, in NY-17 , yet another white-collar seat Trump narrowly carried, it would signal a stronger wave. And if Democrat Blake Gendebien flips NY-21 , the preponderantly working-class White upstate New York seat being vacated by Rep. Elise Stefanik, the wave will be reaching historic heights.

The first clues from the South will come from Georgia, where polls close at 7 p.m. A solid reelection victory for Democrat Sen. Jon Ossoff , who has led Republican Mike Collins in polls for the Georgia Senate race all fall, would show the Democrats meeting expectations. An upset win for Keisha Lance Bottoms over Republican Rick Jackson in the Georgia governor race, despite the massive sums he has poured into his own campaign, would show the party exceeding them.

Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg/Getty Images

North Carolina, where polls close at 7:30 p.m., will also offer early markers. Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is strongly favored to flip the North Carolina Senate seat, but if he wins by at least 6 points, it will be a sign that the party is headed for a good night, says Michael Bitzer, professor of politics and history at Catawba College, and principal author of a blog on Carolina politics .

Other signs of a good Democratic performance will come if Rep. Donald Davis survives in the NC-1 seat, which state Republicans redistricted to produce one that Trump carried by over 11 points. As impressive will be if moderate Democrat Jamie Ager flips NC-11 , a district vacated by scandal-tarred Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards that Trump carried by about 10 points. If Democrats capture any other GOP-held seats — including Rep. Gregory Murphy in NC-3 , a district Trump won by 22 points, or the NC-9 seat now held by Richard Hudson, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee — that would signal historic breakthroughs for the party.

In Florida, where the last polls close at 8 p.m., the baseline tests for Democrats are whether they can hold two seats that Republicans redistricted to tilt more red . A win for Rep. Jared Moskowitz in FL-25 would show a positive trend for Democrats; reelection for Rep. Kathy Castor in FL-14 would measure an even stronger current, as would a win for Rep. Darren Soto in FL-9 , another seat the GOP redrew to tilt right. Victories for Democrats in either FL-13 , now held by Republican Anna Paulina Luna, or FL-7 , a Republican open seat, would also mark a very good night for Florida Democrats. So would a victory by Democratic nominee David Jolly, a former Republican, over Byron Donalds in the Florida governor race.

The storm will reach historic proportions if Democrats oust veteran GOP Rep. María Elvira Salazar in heavily Hispanic FL-27 , a seat Trump carried by 15 points; she has broken with Trump more openly over immigration enforcement than any other Congressional Republican. And the gale will reach Category 5 levels if progressive Democrat Angie Nixon beats Republican Ashley Moody in the Florida Senate race.

Likewise, an upset for Democrat Annie Andrews over Republican Sen. Darline Graham , who was appointed to the seat after the death of her brother Lindsey Graham, in the South Carolina Senate race (where polls close at 7 p.m.), would mark a historic night for Democrats; the party hasn’t elected a senator there since Fritz Hollings in 1998. A victory for Democrat Scott Colom over Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith in the Mississippi Senate race would be even more remarkable: No Democrat has won a Senate seat there since 1982.

In Texas, where the last polls close at 9 p.m., Democrats haven’t elected a US senator since 1988. A win for James Talarico over Ken Paxton , the scandal-tarred Republican nominee, in the Texas Senate contest despite massive Republican super PAC spending funded by Elon Musk and others, would show Democrats progressing toward a very good night, both in the state and nationally. If Democrat Gina Hinojosa beats Republican Greg Abbott in the Texas governor race, despite his massive spending advantage , that would represent an even more historic breakthrough for Democrats. Victories for either candidate, but especially Hinojosa, would constitute “a generational win” for Texas Democrats, says Bill Miller, a leading lobbyist who has run campaigns for candidates in both parties.

“The key down here is that environment is good for Democrats and the money is good for Republicans, and how that washes out will be: Who gets their vote out?” says Miller. “There are more Republicans than Democrats, and if Republicans do a better job, they will win a close election. If they don’t, they will lose a close election.”

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Texas House races will also offer a revealing gauge, especially for measuring how much of Trump’s Latino breakthrough in 2024 he has squandered since . Reelection wins for Democrats Henry Cuellar in TX-28 and Vicente Gonzalez in TX-34 in South Texas seats Republicans redistricted to undercut the incumbents would show the party meeting expectations; if Tejano singing star Bobby Pulido beats Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz in TX-15 (a seat Trump won by 18 points) and/or sheriff’s deputy Johnny Garcia holds TX-35 (an open seat Trump carried by almost 11 points), it would show Democrats overperforming among Hispanics. An upset win for Democrat Katy Padilla Stout over bomb-throwing Republican Brandon Herrera in the open TX-23 seat would capture a Democratic tide reaching tsunami levels.

After moving sharply toward Trump and the GOP over the past decade, the middle of the country is once again back in the center of American politics .

High prices for gas and diesel; the disruptive impact of Trump’s tariffs on the farm economy ; and the president’s loosening grip on the White working-class voters plentiful across these states have all allowed Democrats to dream of recovery in places where they have declined for years. As Skelley notes, all these factors give Democrats reason for optimism that the Midwest may swing toward them even more than other regions.

The region’s initial soundings will come in two states where all polls close at 7 p.m. If Democrat Zach Dembo captures a Republican open seat in KY-6 , a seat Trump carried by 15 points, or J.D. Ford defeats Republican Rep. Victoria Spartz in IN-5 , where Trump won by nearly 17 points, either would put the party on track for a very good night.

The first comprehensive signal from the region will come in Ohio, where polls close at 7:30 p.m. After Republicans redrew the state’s congressional map, reelection victories for Democratic incumbents Greg Landsman in OH-1 and especially Marcy Kaptur in OH-9 would show the party on a solid path. So would a win for Democratic ironworker Brian Poindexter against embattled Republican Rep. Max Miller in OH-7 , a seat Trump carried by 11 points.

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Wins for Democrats in the key statewide races would mark bigger breakthroughs. A victory for Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown over GOP incumbent Jon Husted in the Ohio Senate race would show Democrats recapturing at least some of the ground they have surrendered with blue-collar White voters in the Trump years. Although Democrats haven’t won an Ohio governor race since 2006, Amy Acton has emerged as a clear favorite over self-funding Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, especially after the searing bipartisan backlash over his recent ad featuring her estranged mother. “As long as turnout (for Democrats) doesn’t collapse, Brown’s on track, and she’s on track,” predicts Ohio-based Democratic consultant Jeff Rusnak.

More surprising would be Democratic upsets in either the OH-10 or OH-15 districts now held by GOP Reps. Mike Turner and Mike Carey, respectively. Trump won the former by eight points and the latter by 10. “The big tidal wave would be Turner and Carey,” says Rusnak.

The next big Midwestern signals will come from states where all polls close at 9 p.m. In Iowa, Democratic victories over Republicans Mariannette Miller-Meeks in IA-1 and Zach Nunn in IA-3 , seats Trump won by eight and four points respectively, would show the party meeting expectations. So would a win in the Iowa governor race for Democrat Rob Sand , who has led in polls all year even though Democrats have not elected a governor there since 2006.

An upset win for Democrats in IA-2, the more reliably Republican seat being vacated by Ashley Hinson, the party’s Senate nominee, would mark a bigger wave. So would a win for Democrat Josh Turek over Hinson in the heated Iowa Senate race ; like Brown in Ohio, a Turek win would only be possible if Democrats recover at least some support among working-class Whites , including in rural areas hit hard by Trump’s tariffs and rising diesel costs.

Wisconsin presents a similar profile: A win for Democrat Rebecca Cooke over Republican Derrick Van Orden in the WI-3 House race would mark a good night for the party; a victory for Democrat Mitchell Berman over Republican Bryan Steil in WI-1 , and for Democrat David Crowley in the open seat Wisconsin governor race, would signal something more.

Tom Baker/Getty Images

In Michigan, a comfortable win for Democrat Jocelyn Benson in the Michigan governor race is the baseline for a good Democratic night. Flipping Republican-held House seats in MI-4 and MI-7 would also show Democrats staying on track for a good night; the 7th is a more favorable district for Democrats, but their nominee, progressive William Lawrence, is a weaker candidate than state Sen. Sean McCann in the 4th, notes David Wasserman, senior elections analyst for the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.

However these contests turn out, the verdict on Democrats’ performance will pivot on the bitter Michigan Senate race. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost a Senate bid in 2024, are locked in a close contest that recently has been dominated by Islamophobic remarks from Trump and other Republicans portraying El-Sayed, who is Muslim, as a “jihadist.”

Before this onslaught, an El-Sayed win that preserved this open Democratic seat might have only represented holding serve for his party. But if El-Sayed survives this firestorm, even amid conspicuous defections by some Jewish Democrats , it will be another indication the Trump undertow (his disapproval soared to 66% in the new CNN Michigan poll ) is too strong for Republicans to overcome, even when other factors favor them.

Robin Buckson/Detroit News/Pool/AP

That message would be reinforced even more powerfully if Democrat Adam Marshall beats Republican Roger Hamilton in the Kansas Senate race (the state hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932); if independent Dan Osborn topples Republican Pete Ricketts in the Nebraska Senate race ; or if independent Brian Bengs upsets GOP Sen. Mike Rounds in the South Dakota Senate contest. Democratic wins in any of those races would propel the night squarely into tsunami territory.

Both Colorado and Arizona, where polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern, present a clear progression of opportunity for Democrats.

A win in the CO-8 House race, where Republican Gabe Evans is trying to hold off former state Rep. Manny Rutinel, in a district north of Denver that Trump carried by less than two points, would track with a good Democratic performance. A win by Democratic Army veteran Jessica Killen over Republican Jeff Crank in CO-5 , a district Trump won by nine points, would mark a very good night for the party. And if Democrats oust either Republican Reps. Jeff Hurd in CO-3 or, especially, Lauren Boebert in CO-4 , a seat Trump won by more than 18 points, the flood will be mountain-high.

In Arizona, which has become a perennial swing state, a comfortable reelection for Democrat Katie Hobbs over hard-line Republican Andy Biggs, now seems the minimum for a good Democratic night. So does success in flipping AZ-1 , the very well-educated and affluent seat in the northeast Phoenix suburbs, being vacated by Republican Rep. David Schweikert; Trump has taken a special interest in promoting the GOP nominee, Jay Feely, a former NFL kicker and longtime golfing buddy of the president, but he’s now the underdog against Democrat Amish Shah. More impressive will be if Democratic Marine veteran JoAnna Mendoza defeats Rep. Juan Ciscomani, a Republican who has tried to position himself as a moderate, in AZ-6 , a seat centered on the Tucson suburbs that Trump carried by less than a point.

In Alaska, where the last polls close at 1 a.m., Democratic former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, has established himself as such a strong favorite (even drawing an endorsement last week from Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski) in the Alaska governor race, that a win would show Democrats on a solid path in the state.

More significant would be a victory in the Alaska Senate race for Democrat Mary Peltola, a former US representative, over Republican Sen. Dan S . Sullivan, who has stressed his role in opening the state to greater oil and gas development , which most Alaskans view positively as an engine of prosperity. Alaska has elected only four Democratic senators since it entered the union in 1959 and just one since 1980. But Peltola, who would be the first Alaska Native elected to the Senate, has grounded herself in the state (her unique campaign slogan is “Fish, Family, and Freedom”) and has been boosted by pervasive discontent over soaring gas and diesel costs.

The Trump administration has preemptively sued to invalidate the results if Peltola wins because a candidate named Dan J. Sullivan made the final-four ballot in the state’s ranked choice voting system. Most legal observers give that litigation little chance of success. But the stunning New York Times reporting late last week showing that Democrats aligned with Peltola’s campaign worked to recruit the other Dan Sullivan into the race has prompted investigations from both Alaska’s Republican governor and the Justice Department . The controversy could hurt her electorally — even if many election law experts believe it is also unlikely to provide any legal basis for rejecting the outcome .

Elsewhere across the West, it will be a good result for Democrats if progressive Randy Villegas finally ousts Republican David Valadao, who has long survived in CA-22 , a swing and heavily Hispanic district in California’s Central Valley. A reelection for center-right Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in WA-3 , a Southwest Washington seat that Trump carried by three points, represents a similar level of difficulty for the party. Polls close at 11 p.m. in both states.

If Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek holds off Republican Christine Drazan in the Oregon governor race (where polls also close at 11 p.m.) despite drooping approval ratings and discontent over the economy and persistent homelessness in Portland, it will send a stronger signal that the backlash against Trump is virtually insurmountable for blue state Republicans. An upset for Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford over Republican Joe Lombardo in the Nevada governor race (where polls close at 10 p.m.) would likewise mark a stronger Democratic current. As would a win for Democratic smoke jumper Sam Forstag in MT-1, a seat Trump carried by nearly 12 points.

Democratic wins in two other House districts would mark an historic tide. One is AZ-2 , a seat Trump won by 15 points, where Republican Rep. Eli Crane is facing former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez. The other is NV-2 , an open seat in northern Nevada that gave Trump a 14-point margin two years ago.

A turnout surge from die-hard Trump supporters, which pollsters have missed before, could still blunt the Democratic gains. But a good night for Republicans this week might be anything that stops short of historically bad.

中期选举几乎总是对总统所在的政党不利。有时对总统所在的政党非常不利。而且偶尔还会出现历史性的惨败。

第一种结果似乎已成定局。共和党人对第二种结果越来越感到担忧。而越来越多的民主党人则敢于憧憬第三种结果。

近期的民调结果大多让民主党人感到乐观。民众对总统的态度已成为影响中期选举结果的最重要因素，而唐纳德·特朗普总统目前的支持率远低于2018年共和党失去40多个众议院席位时的水平；也远低于巴拉克·奥巴马、乔治·W·布什和比尔·克林顿在各自政党遭遇中期选举重大失利之前的水平。竞选最后阶段的民调显示，民主党在共和党长期占据优势的州，包括德克萨斯州、俄亥俄州，甚至堪萨斯州和南卡罗来纳州，都展现出了强劲的势头。

但正因为选战主要集中在共和党倾向的地区，大多数民主党人仍然对选举结果感到担忧，尤其是在参议院的选举中。在两党都全力争夺的多数州和众议院选区，共和党选民人数仍然超过民主党选民；如果特朗普的竞选攻势和共和党雄厚的竞选资金优势能够动员出比民调机构预期更多的共和党选民，那么民主党在一些共和党传统票仓的微弱优势将被抹平。

“对我们这边来说，最好的消息是，许多人预期共和党会在最后阶段凭借雄厚的资金实力掀起一波猛攻，但这种情况并没有发生，”资深民主党民调专家保罗·马斯林说。“在这些共和党占绝对优势的州，现在的问题仅仅是：我们的领先优势是否足够稳固，足以让我们最终获胜？”

以下是一份选举之夜指南，其组织方式大致按照难度级别。从东到西，我试图找出众议院、参议院和州长选举的形势，以判断民主党能否迎来一个不错的夜晚、一个非常好的夜晚，或者取得堪比1994年和2010年共和党压倒性胜利以及2006年民主党“大获全胜”的历史性突破。

反之，如果民主党人在周二的选举中输掉几场“好”的选战，那就表明选举结果可能会让他们失望，甚至更糟。

伊芙琳·霍克斯坦/路透社

民主党人对中期选举的期望是否过高？案例分析

当晚选举走向的首要迹象将主要来自东部地区的选情，因为该地区的投票站最早关闭。

在弗吉尼亚州，投票将于晚上7点结束（所有结束时间均为美国东部时间），民主党若能在弗吉尼亚州第二选区（VA-2）的众议院选举中获胜，将预示着该党有望取得稳健的成绩。在该选区，前民主党众议员伊莱恩·卢里亚（Elaine Luria）将再次挑战共和党候选人珍·基根斯（Jen Kiggans）。基根斯曾在2022年击败卢里亚，而特朗普在2024年以不到一个百分点的优势赢得了该选区。如果民主党未能赢得此次选举，则可能预示着该党目前的表现不尽如人意。

如果民主党人也拿下弗吉尼亚州第一选区的国会席位，那将预示着一股更大的浪潮即将到来。在该选区，共和党人罗布·威特曼正竭力抵挡民主党人香农·泰勒的挑战，而特朗普在该选区曾以五个百分点的优势获胜。弗吉尼亚大学政治中心旗下《萨巴托水晶球》通讯的执行主编凯尔·康迪克预测，如果前民主党众议员汤姆·佩里埃洛能够击败即将结束其在弗吉尼亚州第五选区（特朗普在该选区曾以十二个百分点的优势获胜）首个任期的共和党众议员约翰·麦奎尔，这将表明民主党有望赢得比2018年获得的235个席位更多的席位。

宾夕法尼亚州的投票将于晚上8点结束，选情走向与此类似。如果民主党人能够击败宾夕法尼亚州第七选区（PA-7）和第十选区（PA-10）的共和党现任议员瑞安·麦肯齐（Ryan Mackenzie）和斯科特·佩里（Scott Perry），那么民主党有望取得不错的成绩。这两个选区都是蓝领工人占多数的地区，特朗普在这两个选区仅以5个百分点或更少的优势获胜。如果民主党候选人佩奇·科涅蒂（Paige Cognetti）能够击败宾夕法尼亚州第八选区（PA-8）的共和党现任议员罗布·布雷斯纳汉（Rob Bresnahan），那么共和党人将会更加紧张。第八选区位于宾夕法尼亚州东北部，也是一个蓝领工人占多数的选区，特朗普在该选区以超过8个百分点的优势获胜。

从纸面上看，宾夕法尼亚第一选区（PA-1）应该是民主党在该州赢得众议院席位的最佳机会。该选区聚集了大量受过良好教育的中上阶层选民，他们在特朗普时代对共和党感到反感。然而，共和党众议员布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克（Brian Fitzpatrick）自2016年首次当选以来，多年来一直巧妙地游走在与特朗普保持距离和彻底决裂之间。如果民主党候选人鲍勃·哈维（Bob Harvie）击败菲茨帕特里克，这将是历史性浪潮的又一标志——也表明对特朗普感到失望的白领选民正在要求对其政策采取更加无条件的反对立场。

Michael Nagle/Bloomberg/Getty Images

“这种事情往往会一波接一波地发生，”政治网站Decision Desk HQ的首席选举分析师杰弗里·斯凯利说道。“现任议员一直很强劲；他能够与党派保持足够的距离，从而超越（该选区普遍存在的党派倾向）。然后，选情变得非常糟糕……突然之间，想要与党派保持距离就变得难上加难了。”

在缅因州，投票同样在晚上8点结束。如果民主党候选人汉娜·平格里在缅因州州长竞选中轻松获胜，这将标志着该党今晚的选情进展顺利。如果进步派民主党人马修·邓拉普击败前共和党州长保罗·勒佩奇，保住以蓝领工人为主的缅因州第二国会选区（ME-2），那将预示着民主党今晚的选情将更加辉煌。

缅因州参议员席位之争，共和党现任参议员苏珊·柯林斯将与民主党候选人特洛伊·杰克逊展开角逐，这将是该州乃至整个东北地区最受关注的选战。在特朗普三次总统大选中均投票反对他的19个州中，柯林斯是目前仅存的共和党参议员。此外，在特朗普第一任期内，只有一位共和党参议员（无论是现任还是挑战者）在出口民调显示对特朗普执政表现持否定态度的选民人数多于支持态度的州赢得了选举。

乔·雷德尔/盖蒂图片社

自民主党提名杰克逊接替因丑闻而落败的初选获胜者格雷厄姆·普拉特纳以来，杰克逊一直是一位稳健但表现不稳定的竞选者。如果杰克逊胜选，这将再次表明民主党的表现超出预期——同时也表明，特朗普的暗流（上周CNN缅因州最新民调显示，他的支持率跌至67%）正在吞噬那些在摇摆州或倾向民主党的地区，即使是最老练、最根基深厚的共和党人也难以幸免。

在该地区的其他选区，如果民主党候选人丽贝卡·贝内特（Rebecca Bennett）在新泽西州第七选区（另一个受过良好教育的选区，特朗普曾以微弱优势获胜）的众议院选举中击败共和党众议员汤姆·基恩（Tom Kean Jr.），这将表明民主党有望在今晚取得佳绩。如果民主党候选人凯特·康利（Cait Conley）在纽约州第十七选区（另一个特朗普曾以微弱优势获胜的白领选区）击败实力更强的共和党众议员迈克·劳勒（Mike Lawler），这将预示着一股更强劲的浪潮。如果民主党候选人布莱克·根德比恩（Blake Gendebien）拿下纽约州第二十一选区（该选区位于纽约州北部，选民以工薪阶层白人为主，即将卸任众议员伊莉丝·斯特凡尼克（Elise Stefanik）），这股浪潮将达到历史性的高度。

来自南方的首批线索将来自佐治亚州，该州投票将于晚上7点结束。民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫（Jon Ossoff）如果能够稳固连任，表明民主党符合预期。奥索夫在整个秋季的佐治亚州参议员竞选民调中一直领先于共和党候选人迈克·柯林斯（Mike Collins）。而如果凯莎·兰斯·博顿斯（Keisha Lance Bottoms）在佐治亚州州长竞选中爆冷击败共和党候选人里克·杰克逊（Rick Jackson），尽管杰克逊在竞选中投入了巨额资金，那么民主党的表现将超出预期。

Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg/Getty Images

北卡罗来纳州的投票将于晚上7:30结束，届时也将提供一些早期的选举结果。前民主党州长罗伊·库珀极有可能赢得北卡罗来纳州的参议院席位，但如果他能以至少6个百分点的优势获胜，这将预示着民主党今晚将迎来一个好日子，卡托巴学院政治与历史学教授、卡罗莱纳政治博客的主要作者迈克尔·比泽尔表示。

如果众议员唐纳德·戴维斯能够保住北卡罗来纳州第一选区的席位，那将是民主党表现良好的又一标志。该选区由共和党人重新划分，而特朗普在该选区以超过11个百分点的优势获胜。同样令人印象深刻的是，如果温和派民主党人杰米·阿格能够拿下北卡罗来纳州第十一选区，该选区此前由丑闻缠身的共和党众议员查克·爱德华兹占据，而特朗普在该选区也以约10个百分点的优势获胜。如果民主党能够夺取其他任何共和党把持的席位——包括北卡罗来纳州第三选区众议员格雷戈里·墨菲的席位（特朗普在该选区以22个百分点的优势获胜），或是目前由全国共和党国会委员会主席理查德·哈德森占据的北卡罗来纳州第九选区——那将标志着该党取得历史性的突破。

在佛罗里达州，最后一批选民将于晚上8点投票结束。对民主党而言，最基本的考验是能否保住两个共和党重新划分选区、使其更倾向于共和党的席位。如果贾里德·莫斯科维茨众议员在佛罗里达州第25选区获胜，将表明民主党的积极趋势；如果凯西·卡斯特众议员在佛罗里达州第14选区成功连任，则表明民主党的势头更加强劲；同样，如果达伦·索托众议员在佛罗里达州第9选区获胜，也将体现民主党的强劲势头，该选区也是共和党重新划分选区、使其更倾向于共和党的。如果民主党在佛罗里达州第13选区（目前由共和党人安娜·保利娜·卢娜占据）或佛罗里达州第7选区（共和党空缺席位）获胜，对佛罗里达州民主党来说也将是一个非常成功的夜晚。同样，如果民主党候选人、前共和党人戴维·乔利在佛罗里达州州长竞选中击败拜伦·唐纳兹，也将对佛罗里达州民主党产生积极影响。

如果民主党在佛罗里达州第27选区（该选区以拉丁裔选民为主，特朗普曾以15个百分点的优势赢得该席位）击败资深共和党众议员玛丽亚·埃尔维拉·萨拉萨尔，这场风暴将达到历史性的规模；萨拉萨尔在移民执法问题上比任何其他共和党国会议员都更公开地与特朗普决裂。如果进步派民主党人安吉·尼克松在佛罗里达州参议员竞选中击败共和党人阿什利·穆迪，这场风暴将达到五级飓风的强度。

同样，如果民主党候选人安妮·安德鲁斯在南卡罗来纳州参议员选举中击败共和党参议员达琳·格雷厄姆（达琳·格雷厄姆是在其兄长林赛·格雷厄姆去世后被任命的），那将对民主党而言具有历史意义；自1998年弗里茨·霍林斯当选以来，民主党就再未在该州赢得过参议员席位。如果民主党候选人斯科特·科洛姆在密西西比州参议员选举中战胜共和党候选人辛迪·海德-史密斯，那将更加意义非凡：自1982年以来，没有民主党候选人在该州赢得过参议员席位。

在德克萨斯州，最后一轮投票于晚上9点结束，自1988年以来，民主党就再也没有赢得过美国参议员席位。如果詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico）能在德克萨斯州参议员竞选中击败丑闻缠身的共和党候选人肯·帕克斯顿（Ken Paxton），即使共和党超级政治行动委员会（Super PAC）投入巨资（由埃隆·马斯克等人资助），那将表明民主党在德克萨斯州乃至全国范围内都取得了重大胜利。如果民主党候选人吉娜·希诺霍萨（Gina Hinojosa）能在德克萨斯州州长竞选中击败共和党候选人格雷格·阿博特（Greg Abbott），即使阿博特拥有巨额竞选资金优势，那也将是民主党取得更具历史意义的突破。曾为两党候选人运作竞选活动的资深游说人士比尔·米勒（Bill Miller）表示，无论哪位候选人获胜，尤其是希诺霍萨的胜利，都将是德克萨斯州民主党的“世纪胜利”。

米勒说：“关键在于，目前的形势对民主党有利，而资金对共和党有利，最终结果将取决于谁能动员选民投票。”他补充道：“共和党选民比民主党选民多，如果共和党选民的动员能力更强，他们就能赢得这场势均力敌的选举；反之，他们就会输掉这场势均力敌的选举。”

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德克萨斯州众议院的选举也将提供一个颇具启发性的指标，尤其能衡量特朗普在2024年赢得拉丁裔选民支持后，究竟浪费了多少优势。如果民主党候选人亨利·奎利亚尔（Henry Cuellar）在德克萨斯州第28选区和维森特·冈萨雷斯（Vicente Gonzalez）在德克萨斯州第34选区成功连任，表明民主党达到了预期。这两个选区是共和党重新划分选区以削弱现任议员的。如果德州音乐明星鲍比·普利多（Bobby Pulido）在德克萨斯州第15选区（特朗普曾以18个百分点的优势赢得该选区）击败共和党众议员莫妮卡·德拉克鲁兹（Monica De La Cruz），或者警长副手约翰尼·加西亚（Johnny Garcia）保住德克萨斯州第35选区（特朗普曾以近11个百分点的优势赢得该选区），则表明民主党在拉丁裔选民中表现出色。如果民主党候选人凯蒂·帕迪利亚·斯托特（Katy Padilla Stout）在德克萨斯州第23选区（一个空缺席位）爆冷击败以激进著称的共和党候选人布兰登·埃雷拉（Brandon Herrera），则预示着民主党的浪潮将达到海啸般的规模。

过去十年间，美国中部地区迅速倒向特朗普和共和党，如今，它再次回到了美国政治的中心。

汽油和柴油价格高企；特朗普关税政策对农业经济的破坏性影响；以及总统对这些州数量众多的白人工薪阶层选民控制力的减弱，所有这些都让民主党人看到了在他们多年来支持率持续下滑的地区实现复苏的希望。正如斯凯利所指出的，所有这些因素都让民主党人有理由乐观地认为，中西部地区的选民可能会比其他地区更倾向于支持他们。

该地区的初步民意调查将在两个州进行，这两个州的投票站都将于晚上 7 点关闭。如果民主党人扎克·登博 (Zach Dembo) 在肯塔基州第六选区 (KY-6) 赢得共和党空缺席位（特朗普曾以 15 个百分点的优势赢得该席位），或者 JD 福特 (JD Ford) 在印第安纳州第五选区 (IN-5) 击败共和党众议员维多利亚·斯帕茨 (Victoria Spartz)（特朗普曾以近 17 个百分点的优势赢得该席位），那么无论哪一位获胜，都将使民主党迎来一个非常好的夜晚。

该地区首个全面信号将来自俄亥俄州，该州投票将于晚上7:30结束。共和党重新划分了该州的国会选区后，如果民主党现任议员格雷格·兰兹曼（Greg Landsman）在俄亥俄州第一选区（OH-1）以及玛西·卡普图尔（Marcy Kaptur）在俄亥俄州第九选区（OH-9）成功连任，将表明该党正走在一条稳固的道路上。同样，民主党钢铁工人布莱恩·波因德克斯特（Brian Poindexter）在俄亥俄州第七选区（OH-7）击败处境艰难的共和党众议员马克斯·米勒（Max Miller）也将起到类似的作用，特朗普曾在该选区以11个百分点的优势获胜。

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民主党若能在关键的州级选举中获胜，将标志着更大的突破。如果民主党前参议员谢罗德·布朗在俄亥俄州参议员选举中击败共和党现任参议员乔恩·赫斯特，则表明民主党至少正在重新夺回在特朗普执政时期失去的部分蓝领白人选民的支持。尽管民主党自2006年以来就未曾赢得过俄亥俄州州长选举，但艾米·阿克顿已成为明显优于自筹资金的共和党候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米的热门人选，尤其是在拉马斯瓦米最近发布的广告中出现了她疏远的母亲，引发了两党的强烈反弹之后。“只要（民主党的）投票率不暴跌，布朗的胜算就很大，她也稳操胜券，”俄亥俄州民主党顾问杰夫·鲁斯纳克预测道。

更令人惊讶的是，民主党人可能会在目前分别由共和党众议员迈克·特纳和迈克·凯里把持的俄亥俄州第10选区或第15选区爆冷获胜。特朗普在前者以8个百分点的优势获胜，在后者则以10个百分点的优势获胜。“真正的巨浪将是特纳和凯里，”鲁斯纳克说道。

下一个重要的中西部信号将来自所有投票站都在晚上9点关闭的州。在爱荷华州，如果民主党人能够分别在爱荷华州第一选区（IA-1）和第三选区（IA-3）击败共和党候选人玛丽安内特·米勒-米克斯和扎克·纳恩（特朗普分别以8个百分点和4个百分点的优势赢得了这两个席位），则表明该党符合预期。同样，如果民主党候选人罗布·桑德赢得爱荷华州州长选举，也将表明该党符合预期。尽管自2006年以来民主党在该州就未曾赢得过州长职位，但桑德在民调中一直领先。

如果民主党在爱荷华州第二选区（IA-2）爆冷获胜，那将是一股更大的浪潮。该选区原本是共和党的传统票仓，即将由该党参议员候选人阿什利·欣森（Ashley Hinson）空出。同样，如果民主党候选人乔什·图雷克（Josh Turek）在竞争激烈的爱荷华州参议员竞选中击败欣森，也将带来更大的影响。与俄亥俄州的布朗（Brown）一样，图雷克的胜利只有在民主党重新赢得部分工薪阶层白人的支持，包括那些受特朗普关税和柴油价格上涨重创的农村地区选民的支持后才有可能实现。

威斯康星州的情况也类似：民主党人丽贝卡·库克在威斯康星州第三选区众议院选举中战胜共和党人德里克·范·奥尔登，将标志着该党的一个好夜晚；民主党人米切尔·伯曼在威斯康星州第一选区战胜共和党人布莱恩·斯蒂尔，以及民主党人戴维·克劳利在威斯康星州州长空缺席位的竞选中获胜，将预示着更大的变化。

汤姆·贝克/盖蒂图片社

在密歇根州，民主党候选人乔斯林·本森(Jocelyn Benson)在州长竞选中轻松获胜，是民主党当晚取得良好战绩的基准。如果民主党能够拿下密歇根州第四选区(MI-4)和第七选区(MI-7)的众议院席位，也表明他们正朝着当晚的胜利稳步前进；第七选区对民主党更为有利，但据库克政治报告(Cook Political Report)的高级选举分析师大卫·沃瑟曼(David Wasserman)和艾米·沃尔特(Amy Walter)指出，民主党候选人、进步派威廉·劳伦斯(William Lawrence)的实力不如第四选区的州参议员肖恩·麦肯(Sean McCann)。

无论这些选举结果如何，民主党的整体表现将取决于竞争激烈的密歇根州参议员选举。民主党候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德和前共和党众议员迈克·罗杰斯（他曾在2024年参议员竞选中以微弱劣势落败）陷入了激烈的角逐。近期，特朗普和其他共和党人发表了一系列仇视伊斯兰教的言论，将身为穆斯林的埃尔-赛义德描绘成“圣战分子”，这场选举也因此愈演愈烈。

在这次猛烈抨击之前，如果埃尔-赛义德能够保住这个空缺的民主党席位，或许仅仅意味着为民主党守住了一个席位。但如果埃尔-赛义德能够挺过这场风暴，即便一些犹太裔民主党人明显倒戈，这也将再次表明，特朗普的暗流（根据CNN最新的密歇根州民调，他的支持率已飙升至66%）过于强大，共和党人即便在其他方面对他们有利，也难以抵挡。

Robin Buckson/底特律新闻/Pool/美联社

如果民主党候选人亚当·马歇尔在堪萨斯州参议员竞选中击败共和党候选人罗杰·汉密尔顿（该州自1932年以来就未曾选出过民主党参议员）；如果独立候选人丹·奥斯本在内布拉斯加州参议员竞选中击败共和党候选人皮特·里基茨；或者如果独立候选人布莱恩·本斯在南达科他州参议员竞选中爆冷击败共和党参议员迈克·朗兹，那么上述信息将得到更有力的强化。民主党在上述任何一场竞选中的胜利都将使当晚的选举结果如同海啸般席卷而来。

科罗拉多州和亚利桑那州的投票都将于美国东部时间晚上 9 点结束，这两个州都为民主党人提供了明显的晋升机会。

如果民主党在科罗拉多州第八选区（CO-8）的众议院选举中获胜，将标志着民主党整体表现良好。共和党候选人加布·埃文斯（Gabe Evans）正努力击败前州众议员曼尼·鲁蒂内尔（Manny Rutinel），该选区位于丹佛北部，特朗普在该选区仅以不到两个百分点的优势获胜。如果民主党退伍军人杰西卡·基伦（Jessica Killen）在科罗拉多州第五选区（CO-5）击败共和党候选人杰夫·克兰克（Jeff Crank），该选区特朗普曾以九个百分点的优势获胜，那么这将是民主党的一次重大胜利。如果民主党能够拿下科罗拉多州第三选区（CO-3）的共和党众议员杰夫·赫德（Jeff Hurd），或者，尤其是科罗拉多州第四选区（CO-4）的劳伦·博伯特（Lauren Boebert），该选区特朗普曾以超过18个百分点的优势获胜，那么民主党的胜利将更加辉煌。

在亚利桑那州这个常年摇摆不定的州，民主党候选人凯蒂·霍布斯轻松击败强硬派共和党人安迪·比格斯，连任似乎已是民主党当晚取得佳绩的最低标准。同样重要的是，民主党能否拿下亚利桑那州第一选区（AZ-1），该选区位于凤凰城东北郊区，选民受教育程度高且经济富裕，目前由共和党众议员大卫·施韦克特占据，即将卸任。特朗普一直大力支持共和党候选人杰伊·费利，这位前NFL踢球手是特朗普多年的高尔夫球友，但如今他面对民主党候选人阿米什·沙阿却处于劣势。如果民主党海军陆战队老兵乔安娜·门多萨能够击败试图将自己定位为温和派的共和党众议员胡安·西斯科马尼，那将更加令人印象深刻。亚利桑那州第六选区（AZ-6）位于图森郊区，特朗普在该选区仅以不到一个百分点的优势获胜。

在阿拉斯加，最后一场投票将于凌晨 1 点结束。民主党前州众议员乔纳森·克雷斯-汤姆金斯在阿拉斯加州长竞选中已成为强有力的热门人选（甚至在上周获得了共和党参议员丽莎·穆尔科斯基的支持），如果他获胜，将表明民主党在该州走上了一条稳固的道路。

更重要的是，民主党候选人玛丽·佩尔托拉（Mary Peltola）——一位前美国众议员——若能在阿拉斯加州参议员竞选中击败共和党参议员丹·S·沙利文（Dan S. Sullivan），那将意义非凡。沙利文一直强调他在开放阿拉斯加州石油和天然气开发方面所发挥的作用，而大多数阿拉斯加人则积极看待石油和天然气开发，认为它是繁荣的引擎。自1959年加入联邦以来，阿拉斯加州仅选出过四位民主党参议员，自1980年以来更是只有一位。但佩尔托拉有望成为首位当选参议员的阿拉斯加原住民，她扎根于阿拉斯加州（她独特的竞选口号是“鱼、家庭和自由”），并且民众对汽油和柴油价格飙升的普遍不满也为她提供了支持。

如果佩尔托拉胜选，特朗普政府已先发制人提起诉讼，试图推翻选举结果，理由是另一位名叫丹·J·沙利文的候选人进入了阿拉斯加州排序复选制投票制度下的最终四强。大多数法律观察人士认为这场诉讼胜算渺茫。但上周晚些时候，《纽约时报》一篇令人震惊的报道揭露，与佩尔托拉竞选团队结盟的民主党人曾努力招募另一位名叫丹·沙利文的候选人参选。该报道引发了阿拉斯加州共和党州长和司法部的调查。这场争议可能会对佩尔托拉的选情造成不利影响——尽管许多选举法专家认为，这场争议不太可能构成推翻选举结果的法律依据。

在西部其他地区，如果进步派候选人兰迪·维勒加斯（Randy Villegas）最终能够击败长期把持加州第22选区（CA-22）的共和党人戴维·瓦拉道（David Valadao），对民主党来说将是一个好消息。加州第22选区位于加州中央谷地，是一个摇摆选区，拉丁裔选民众多。而对于中间偏右的民主党众议员玛丽·格鲁森坎普·佩雷斯（Marie Gluesenkamp Perez）来说，在华盛顿州西南部的一个选区（特朗普曾以三个百分点的优势赢得该选区）的连任之路，对民主党而言也同样充满挑战。这两个州的投票都将于晚上11点结束。

如果民主党籍州长蒂娜·科泰克（Tina Kotek）在俄勒冈州州长竞选中击败共和党候选人克里斯汀·德拉赞（Christine Drazan）（该州投票也于晚上11点结束），尽管她的支持率持续下滑，民众对经济和波特兰市持续存在的无家可归问题也颇有微词，这将更强烈地表明，对于民主党执政的州的共和党人来说，民众对特朗普的反弹几乎是不可逾越的障碍。同样，如果民主党籍总检察长亚伦·福特（Aaron Ford）在内华达州州长竞选中击败共和党候选人乔·隆巴多（Joe Lombardo）（该州投票于晚上10点结束），也将标志着民主党势力的崛起。此外，如果民主党籍消防员萨姆·福斯塔格（Sam Forstag）在蒙大拿州第一选区（MT-1）获胜，也将起到类似的作用，该选区曾被特朗普以近12个百分点的优势拿下。

如果民主党在另外两个众议院选区获胜，将标志着历史性的胜利浪潮。其中一个是亚利桑那州第二选区（AZ-2），特朗普曾以15个百分点的优势赢得该席位，现任共和党众议员伊莱·克莱恩（Eli Crane）将迎战前纳瓦霍族主席乔纳森·内兹（Jonathan Nez）。另一个是内华达州第二选区（NV-2），这是内华达州北部的一个空缺席位，两年前特朗普在该选区以14个百分点的优势获胜。

铁杆特朗普支持者的投票热情可能会大幅提升，而民调机构此前曾未能预测到这一点，这或许仍会削弱民主党的优势。但对共和党而言，本周只要没有出现历史性的惨败，就算是一个好兆头了。