Emirati F-35 prospects languish amid high-stakes Chinese, US courting

MILAN — As the United Arab Emirates seeks closer defense ties with the United States and China alike, the prospects of exporting the F-35 fighter to Abu Dhabi anytime soon may be getting slimmer, according to experts.

On April 23, the chief of joint operations for the UAE Armed Forces met with the commander of the Chinese Air Force in Beijing to discuss options for strengthening collaboration between their services. The meeting served as the Gulf nation’s most recent overture to China, signaling a particular interest in warplane cooperation.

After receiving the first batch of Chinese Hongdu L-15A Falcon jet trainers last year, some observers have speculated that the Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter may be the next platform on the country’s wish-list.

This week, senior U.S. and UAE defense officials met for their annual military dialogue in Washington. On the agenda, were “specific discussions,” on integrated air and missile defense as well as cooperation on emerging capabilities, per a statement released by the U.S. Department of Defense.

The release made no mention of the elephant in the room – Abu Dhabi’s request to buy the fifth-generation American combat jet .

The Biden administration froze the sale of 50 Lockheed-made F-35 fighter jets to the Emiratis in 2021, as the bolstered UAE-China defense connection has continued to raise questions among U.S. officials about the future of Washington arms sales to its Middle East ally.

Meanwhile, in 2020, after normalizing ties with the UAE, Israel said that it would not oppose the sale of “specific U.S.-made weapon systems” to the Emiratis, in what many interpreted as a reference to the F-35s. Israel was previously reported to have been against this deal, viewing it as a possible threat to maintaining its regional military superiority.

In recent years, some developments within the UAE-China relationship have been more concerning than others for the United States, said Daniel Mouton, a former U.S. National Security Council official who is now a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

One alarming issue regarded the establishment of a Chinese military facility in the country, which the analyst said would be dangerous “particularly in terms of its ability to observe U.S. activities inside the Gulf state and area.”

“Considering the technology associated with the F-35, the presence of a Chinese military base and expanding Chinese technical infrastructure could have posed a risk to this valuable piece of U.S. technology and to the international consortium of F-35 operators,” Mouton added.

The planned facility was reportedly being built at a port near Abu Dhabi, where a Chinese shipping group operates. Last year, despite the Gulf state’s previous pledge to halt China’s construction at the site, new activity was detected, according to the Washington Post.

While the sale of F-35 warplanes has become something of a white whale for the Emiratis, with Abu Dhabi even threatening to cancel it at one point, Mouton said that the deal remains “viable.”

A Lockheed Martin representative said they could not comment on government-to-government discussions.

Other experts have a gloomier outlook on the long-pending transaction, viewing it as a possible dead end.

“The UAE’s decision to commit to a large Rafale buy [80 aircraft] from France in 2022 is likely a good indication that they know the deal isn’t going anywhere at this point,” Alex Almeida, Middle East analyst at the U.S.-based political risk consultancy group Horizon Engage, said.

“Or at least that the timeframe for an eventual F-35 delivery is so far in the future they’ll need a sizable fleet of new 4.5 generation aircraft to replace the Mirage 2000s they are currently phasing out before moving on to a full fifth-gen platform,” he added.

The F-35 were initially offered as a package deal to the UAE alongside the MQ-9 Reaper manufactured by General Atomics Aeronautical Systems. This is no longer the case, as the drone acquisition is moving forward and will be integrated with Emirati-made weapons.

The U.S. drone maker, for its part, is still concerned about Chinese dealings with America’s allies.

In testimony before the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee on April 17, Nicola Johnson, vice president of government affairs and strategic communications at GA-ASI, warned of China’s rise as a global drone producer. She also flagged weaknesses of the Missile Technology Control Regime, a multinational pact designed to curb the spread of missile technology, which governs the trading of certain unmanned aircraft system (UAS) components.

“Strategic partners have pivoted away from American UAS and toward those made by foreign competitors, such as Turkey, Israel and China. Notably China, not a member of the [MTCR] regime, is turning international sales into an engine for revenue that it can use to develop more advanced systems, to the detriment of America’s national security,” she said.

The UAE has purchased an undisclosed number of Chinese Wing Loong drones previously, and has made it clear that it intends to follow “a pragmatic foreign policy,” as Mouton noted.

Last year, GA-ASI opposed the building of a Chinese wet corn milling plant near Grand Forks Air Force Base, North Dakota, due to fears about potential espionage, as U.S. defense companies conduct sensitive tests there related to unmanned aircraft and other advanced weapons.

Meanwhile, the U.S.-China tussle over a key ally in the Gulf is also playing out in the field of civilian technology. Microsoft announced last month that it will invest $1.5 billion in the UAE’s leading artificial intelligence firm, G42.

The deal, which was orchestrated in large part by the White House, comes with the caveat that the Emirati company must essentially kick Chinese suppliers out of its operations, according to the New York Times .

Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo was a Europe correspondent for Defense News. She covers a wide range of topics related to military procurement and international security, and specializes in reporting on the aviation sector. She is based in Milan, Italy.

米兰——据专家称，随着阿拉伯联合酋长国寻求与美国和中国建立更紧密的防务关系，近期向阿布扎比出口F-35战斗机的可能性可能越来越小。

4月23日，阿联酋武装部队联合行动司令在北京会见了中国空军司令，探讨加强两国军种合作的方案。此次会晤是阿联酋近期向中国释放的最新信号，表明其对战机合作表现出浓厚的兴趣。

去年中国接收了首批洪都L-15A“猎鹰”喷气式教练机后，一些观察人士猜测，成都J-20隐形战斗机可能是中国下一个心愿清单上的平台。

本周，美国和阿联酋高级国防官员在华盛顿举行年度军事对话。美国国防部发表声明称，会议议程包括“具体讨论”，内容涉及一体化防空和导弹防御以及新兴能力方面的合作。

新闻稿只字未提房间里的大象——阿布扎比要求购买美国第五代战斗机的请求。

2021年，拜登政府冻结了向阿联酋出售50架洛克希德制造的F-35战斗机的计划，因为阿联酋与中国之间日益密切的防务联系，持续引发美国官员对华盛顿未来向其中东盟友出售武器的担忧。

与此同时，在2020年与阿联酋关系正常化后，以色列表示不会反对向阿联酋出售“特定的美国制造武器系统”，许多人认为这指的是F-35战斗机。此前有报道称，以色列反对这项交易，认为它可能威胁到其维持地区军事优势。

美国前国家安全委员会官员、现任大西洋理事会高级研究员丹尼尔·穆顿表示，近年来，阿联酋与中国关系中的一些发展比其他发展更令美国担忧。

一个令人担忧的问题是中国在该国建立军事设施，分析人士称这将很危险，“尤其是在其能够观察美国在海湾国家和地区内的活动方面”。

“考虑到F-35的相关技术，中国军事基地的存在以及中国不断扩大的技术基础设施可能会对这项宝贵的美国技术以及F-35运营商的国际联盟构成风险，”穆顿补充道。

据报道，该设施计划建在阿布扎比附近的一个港口，一家中国航运集团在该港口开展业务。据《华盛顿邮报》报道，尽管海湾国家此前曾承诺阻止中国在该地点的建设，但去年仍发现了新的施工活动。

尽管出售 F-35 战机对阿联酋来说已成为一件棘手的大事，阿布扎比甚至一度威胁要取消这笔交易，但穆顿表示，这笔交易仍然“可行”。

洛克希德·马丁公司的一位代表表示，他们无法对政府间的讨论发表评论。

其他专家对这笔长期悬而未决的交易持悲观态度，认为它可能以失败告终。

“阿联酋决定在 2022 年从法国大量购买阵风战斗机（80 架），这很可能表明他们知道这笔交易目前不会有任何进展，”美国政治风险咨询集团 Horizo​​n Engage 的中东分析师 Alex Almeida 表示。

“或者至少可以说，F-35 最终交付的时间还很遥远，他们需要一支规模可观的新型 4.5 代飞机机队来取代目前正在逐步淘汰的幻影 2000，然后再过渡到完整的第五代平台，”他补充道。

最初，F-35战机与通用原子航空系统公司生产的MQ-9“死神”无人机一起作为一揽子方案提供给阿联酋。但现在情况已有所改变，无人机采购项目正在推进，并将与阿联酋自主研发的武器系统整合。

美国无人机制造商方面仍然对中国与美国盟友的交易感到担忧。

4月17日，通用航空系统公司（GA-ASI）负责政府事务和战略沟通的副总裁尼古拉·约翰逊在美国众议院外交事务委员会作证时，警告称中国正在崛起成为全球无人机生产大国。她还指出了《导弹及其技术控制制度》（MTCR）的缺陷。MTCR是一项旨在遏制导弹技术扩散的多国协议，其中也包括对某些无人机系统（UAS）部件贸易的监管。

她表示：“战略伙伴已经不再依赖美国的无人机系统，转而选择土耳其、以色列和中国等外国竞争对手的产品。值得注意的是，中国并非导弹及其技术控制制度（MTCR）成员国，却将国际销售转化为收入来源，用于开发更先进的系统，这损害了美国的国家安全。”

正如穆顿所指出的，阿联酋此前已购买了数量不详的中国翼龙无人机，并明确表示打算奉行“务实的外交政策”。

去年，通用原子航空系统公司（GA-ASI）反对中国在北达科他州大福克斯空军基地附近建造一座湿玉米加工厂，原因是担心潜在的间谍活动，因为美国国防公司在那里进行与无人机和其他先进武器相关的敏感测试。

与此同时，美中围绕海湾地区一个关键盟友的争夺也蔓延到了民用技术领域。微软上个月宣布，将向阿联酋领先的人工智能公司G42投资15亿美元。

据《纽约时报》报道，这项主要由白宫促成的交易附带一个条件，即这家阿联酋公司必须基本上将中国供应商逐出其运营。

伊丽莎白·戈斯林-马洛曾任《防务新闻》欧洲通讯员。她的报道涵盖军事采购和国际安全等广泛领域，尤其擅长航空领域的报道。她常驻意大利米兰。