Iran and US explore diplomacy amid rising threats of war

Tehran says it could reopen Hormuz in a shorter period if conditions are met, as Trump says the US still has several Iranian targets to ‘take care of’.

Iran’s Foreign Minister speaks to Al Jazeera about US proposals

Tehran, Iran – Ongoing contacts through mediators have provided a potential diplomatic opening between Iran and the United States, even as both sides express readiness for renewed military escalation.

After two days of Qatari-mediated talks, Iranian authorities have signalled that a deal remains possible provided that their demands are tangibly implemented. At the same time, they have doubled down on a willingness to expand attacks or even launch preemptive strikes if they deem war is inevitable.

“We are prepared for all scenarios,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera on Saturday. “We have upgraded our weaponry, addressed our vulnerabilities, and tested new arms. Our forces are at the highest level of readiness.”

His comments came as US President Donald Trump said on Saturday the talks were going “fine” but added that Iranian authorities were not “reliable”.

The Republican leader, who ordered attacks alongside Israel against Iran on February 28, has repeatedly raised prospects of once more hitting the country’s civilian infrastructure. In recent weeks, he has suggested that an attack could potentially take place after the November 3 midterm elections in the US.

“We still have to take care of, I would say, one or two sites, but we can do that in 10 minutes,” Trump told reporters at a Halloween party at his Mar-a-Lago Club in Florida about further bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Sequencing and timeline

The mediated talks in Tehran on Friday, and then in Qatar on Saturday, appear to have produced a new tangible result by shortening the period after which Iran’s proposal to partly reopen the Strait of Hormuz can be enforced.

Tehran had previously offered seven days, but that has now come down to two, Araghchi said in his interview with Al Jazeera.

Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow with the Center for International Policy, said there are “indications” of US interest in a negotiated settlement, citing the continuing Qatar-mediated talks and US Vice President JD Vance’s recent outreach .

“However, Iran is seeking a series of concessions while the United States insists on progress on Iran’s nuclear programme before concessions are made,” she told Al Jazeera.

“Therefore the central difficulty is sequencing and leverage. Each side wants the other to act first.”

Araghchi’s two-day offer indicates some flexibility over sequencing that could also allow both sides to claim an initial diplomatic achievement without immediately resolving their fundamental disagreements, according to Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group.

“However, the military statements show the limits of this opening. Iran appears increasingly determined to prevent a repetition of previous scenarios in which negotiations or temporary ceasefires were followed by renewed military conflict,” he wrote on social media. “From Tehran’s perspective, the objective is to make another attack so costly and unpredictable that Washington would have to reconsider the option altogether.”

As the talks were ongoing on Saturday, the office of Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said he had a meeting earlier with top military commanders to demand “maximum deterrence” through preparedness for an immediate response “without geographical restriction” to any threat.

Targets would include “tangible and intangible” US and Israeli assets, Khamenei said. Iranian authorities have previously said if Iran’s civilian infrastructure is attacked again, seabed cables and infrastructure across the region could also become targets.

After Khamenei’s statement, commanders of the general staff of the armed forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the traditional army separately expressed readiness to launch missile, drone and other attacks in case of an escalation of conflict.

State media on Sunday also aired footage of missiles and drones being taken out of massive underground storage sites and deployed during the eight months of war so far.

The authorities also signalled that they expect more potential attacks from the US and Israel, including against Iran’s power grid.

Gholamreza Jalali, commander of the National Organization for Passive Defense, said during a speech on Sunday that they have identified 14 sectors most dependent on electricity that would need support if the war restarts, without naming any.

“Adopting preventive measures in the area of passive defence for the electricity grid is a fundamental principle that all authorities must follow up in their capacities,” he said, adding that officials were considering “network islanding” practices to create different segments that would not all be simultaneously affected by potential bombing.

‘Positive change in tone’

In and around the Strait of Hormuz, vessels continue to be attacked if they refuse to coordinate with the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the entity set up by Iranian authorities to enforce control and sovereignty in the critical waterway.

At least four tankers were identified as being hit on Friday and Saturday, although not all attacks are reported by vessels and monitors. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, a vessel carrying liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) was struck by three Iranian projectiles on Saturday about 40 nautical miles (74km) south of Iran’s Lavan Island, deep into the Gulf.

Transit in the strait and surrounding waterways will not return to normal unless the US takes steps towards Iran’s conditions, security chief Mohsen Rezaei told state television during an interview on Saturday night.

For the sequencing to work, he said Tehran wants the US to lift its naval blockade that has halted oil exports and the majority of Iran’s trade, which used to be facilitated through its southern ports. The US must also issue waivers for oil sanctions, unfreeze Iran’s assets abroad, stop fighting on all regional fronts, including Lebanon, and recognise a bilateral Iran-Oman arrangement for Hormuz.

Rezaei said he has yet to respond to a letter addressed to him by Vance, although he said the missive indicated a “change in tone” that he described as “positive”.

Mostafa Najafi, a Tehran-based political analyst said to be linked with Rezaei, said if the conditions are not met, the letter is likely to go unanswered and negotiations – including on Iran’s nuclear programme – will not enter a higher level.

“It is unclear how willing Washington is to accept these demands. It is clear that not recognising rights emphasised by Iran will lead to the failure of the negotiations,” he wrote on X.

The US has also doubled down on the effectiveness of its Operation Economic Outcast involving the blockade, sanctions and pressure on overland trade and aviation.

A report by the US Treasury to inform Trump’s decision-making, which was publicised by news outlet Axios, said no new oil had been loaded onto tankers at Iran’s terminals since August 25. It also showed overseas crude deliveries were down, while Iran’s year-on-year inflation neared 90 percent in September and the national currency continued to dwindle.

The report said Iran’s economy was “crippled” by the combined measures, but did not argue that it was close to collapsing.

德黑兰方面表示，如果条件满足，可能会在更短的时间内重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。与此同时，特朗普表示，美国仍有几个伊朗目标需要“解决”。

伊朗外交部长就美国提议接受半岛电视台采访

伊朗德黑兰——尽管伊朗和美国都表示准备再次升级军事冲突，但通过调解人进行的持续接触为两国之间提供了一个潜在的外交契机。

经过卡塔尔斡旋的两天谈判，伊朗当局表示，只要他们的要求得到切实落实，达成协议仍有可能。与此同时，他们也重申，如果认为战争不可避免，他们愿意扩大袭击范围，甚至发动先发制人的打击。

“我们已为所有可能的情况做好准备，”外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇周六告诉半岛电视台。“我们升级了武器装备，弥补了自身弱点，并测试了新型武器。我们的部队处于最高战备状态。”

他的这番言论发表之际，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周六表示，会谈进展“顺利”，但同时补充说，伊朗当局“不可靠”。

这位共和党领袖曾于2月28日与以色列联手对伊朗发动袭击，此后他多次暗示可能再次袭击伊朗的民用基础设施。最近几周，他甚至表示，袭击可能在美国11月3日中期选举之后发生。

“我们仍然需要处理一两个地点，但我们可以在 10 分钟内完成，”特朗普在佛罗里达州海湖庄园俱乐部举行的万圣节派对上告诉记者，他将进一步轰炸伊朗的核设施。

排序和时间线

周五在德黑兰举行的斡旋会谈，以及周六在卡塔尔举行的斡旋会谈，似乎取得了新的切实成果，缩短了伊朗部分重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的提议得以实施的期限。

阿拉格奇在接受半岛电视台采访时表示，德黑兰此前曾提出七天的和解方案，但现在已缩减至两天。

国际政策中心高级研究员内加尔·莫塔扎维表示，有“迹象”表明美国有兴趣通过谈判解决争端，他列举了卡塔尔斡旋的持续谈判以及美国副总统JD·万斯最近的接触。

“然而，伊朗正在寻求一系列让步，而美国则坚持伊朗在核计划方面取得进展，才会做出让步，”她告诉半岛电视台。

“因此，核心难点在于先后顺序和策略运用。双方都希望对方先行动。”

据国际危机组织高级伊朗问题分析师哈米德雷扎·阿齐兹称，阿拉格奇提出的两天期限表明双方在谈判顺序上有一定的灵活性，这也使得双方可以在不立即解决根本分歧的情况下，宣称取得了初步的外交成就。

“然而，军方的声明表明了这种开放局面的局限性。伊朗似乎越来越决心阻止以往谈判或临时停火后再次爆发军事冲突的局面重演，”他在社交媒体上写道。“从德黑兰的角度来看，其目标是让另一次袭击代价高昂且难以预测，从而迫使华盛顿彻底重新考虑这一选项。”

周六会谈进行期间，伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的办​​公室表示，他早些时候与高级军事指挥官举行了会晤，要求通过做好对任何威胁“不受地域限制”的立即反应准备，实现“最大程度的威慑”。

哈梅内伊表示，袭击目标将包括美国和以色列的“有形和无形”资产。伊朗当局此前曾表示，如果伊朗的民用基础设施再次遭到袭击，该地区的海底电缆和基础设施也可能成为袭击目标。

在哈梅内伊发表声明后，武装部队总参谋部、伊斯兰革命卫队和传统军队的指挥官分别表示，如果冲突升级，他们准备发动导弹、无人机和其他攻击。

周日，国家媒体还播放了导弹和无人机从巨大的地下储存库中取出并部署的画面，这些画面显示，在过去八个月的战争中，这些导弹和无人机已被部署到战场上。

当局还表示，他们预计美国和以色列可能会发动更多袭击，包括针对伊朗电网的袭击。

全国被动防御组织指挥官戈拉姆雷扎·贾拉利在周日的一次演讲中表示，他们已经确定了 14 个最依赖电力的行业，如果战争重新开始，这些行业将需要电力支持，但他没有透露具体是哪些行业。

“在电网被动防御领域采取预防措施是所有有关部门必须在其职权范围内遵循的基本原则，”他说道，并补充说，官员们正在考虑“网络孤岛化”做法，以创建不同的网络段，使它们不会同时受到潜在轰炸的影响。

“语气发生积极变化”

在霍尔木兹海峡及其周边地区，如果船只拒绝与波斯湾海峡管理局（伊朗当局设立的机构，旨在维护对这条重要水道的控制和主权）协调，就会继续遭到攻击。

周五和周六至少有四艘油轮被确认遭到袭击，但并非所有袭击事件都会被船只和监测机构报告。据英国海事贸易行动部门称，周六，一艘载有液化石油气（LPG）的船只在伊朗拉万岛以南约40海里（74公里）处，波斯湾深处，遭到三枚伊朗发射的炮弹袭击。

伊朗安全部长莫森·雷扎伊周六晚在接受国家电视台采访时表示，除非美国采取措施满足伊朗的要求，否则海峡及周边水道的通行将不会恢复正常。

他表示，要使这一进程顺利进行，德黑兰希望美国解除对伊朗的海上封锁。该封锁已导致伊朗石油出口中断，并阻碍了伊朗大部分贸易，而这些贸易过去都是通过伊朗南部港口进行的。美国还必须豁免部分石油制裁，解冻伊朗在海外的资产，停止在包括黎巴嫩在内的所有地区战线的战斗，并承认伊朗与阿曼就霍尔木兹海峡达成的双边协议。

雷扎伊表示，他尚未回复万斯写给他的信，但他表示，这封信表明了“语气的变化”，他将其描述为“积极的”。

据传与雷扎伊有联系的德黑兰政治分析家穆斯塔法·纳贾菲表示，如果这些条件得不到满足，这封信很可能得不到回应，包括伊朗核计划在内的谈判也不会进入更高水平。

“目前尚不清楚华盛顿对接受这些要求的意愿有多大。但很明显，不承认伊朗强调的权利将导致谈判失败，”他在X上写道。

美国还加倍努力提高其“经济排斥行动”的有效性，该行动包括封锁、制裁和对陆路贸易和航空施加压力。

美国财政部为特朗普决策提供的一份报告（由新闻媒体Axios发布）显示，自8月25日以来，伊朗码头没有新的石油装载到油轮上。报告还显示，海外原油交付量下降，而伊朗9月份的同比通货膨胀率接近90%，本国货币持续贬值。

报告称，这些措施使伊朗经济“瘫痪”，但并未指出伊朗经济已接近崩溃。