NK's economic growth is 'temporary' thanks to Russia-Ukraine war, study says

A South Korean think tank affiliated with the National Intelligence Service said North Korea’s recent economic growth in the 3 percent range is a temporary windfall from the Russia-Ukraine war that may reduce domestic consumption. In a paper released Thursday, Institute for National Security Strategy senior research fellow Lim Soo-ho argued that growth has been concentrated in heavy industry and construction, with little benefit to public livelihoods. The analysis said the growth depends heavily on arms exports to Russia and could falter if Russian orders and reciprocal aid stop.

Bank of Korea estimates cited in the paper put North Korea’s real GDP growth at 3.5 percent in 2025, after 3.1 percent in 2023 and 3.7 percent in 2024.

The analysis estimated the accumulated economic value of arms exports to Russia since August 2023 and troop deployments since October 2024 at approximately $11 billion as of late 2025.

If arms exports and troop deployments continue at last year’s levels, their cumulative economic value is projected to reach around $16 billion by the end of 2026.

Between the first quarter of 2024 and the third quarter of 2026, exchange rates for the U.S. dollar and Chinese yuan rose by 646.5 percent and 697.2 percent, respectively, against the North Korean won.

Over the same period, reported market prices rose by 599.4 percent for rice, 447 percent for corn, 368.3 percent for pork, 527 percent for gasoline and 669.8 percent for diesel.

Published Nov 1, 2026 4:08 pm KST

People look around the National Garment and Footwear Exhibition in Pyongyang, Oct. 21. AP-Yonhap

North Korea’s recent economic growth in the 3 percent range was a “temporary war windfall” from the Russia-Ukraine war that would potentially lead to reduced domestic consumption, according to an analysis released by a think tank run by South Korea's spy agency on Sunday.

In a research paper titled “Is North Korea’s economy really booming?” released Thursday by the Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS), a South Korean state-run think tank affiliated with the National Intelligence Service (NIS), senior research fellow Lim Soo-ho wrote, “What North Korea is enjoying right now is not genuine growth in its domestic economy, but rather a predatory expansion — a temporary windfall in regime finances built on war profits and inflation tax.”

“North Korea’s recent economic growth has been heavily driven by a unilateral surge in heavy industry and construction … Those facilities and manufactured munitions yield almost no tangible benefit for public livelihood,” he added.

Citing Bank of Korea estimates , showing North Korea’s real gross domestic product grew by 3.5 percent in 2025, following growth of 3.1 percent in 2023 and 3.7 percent in 2024, marking three consecutive years of growth in the 3 percent range, the report said the growth range is lower than other developing countries given the size of arms exports to Russia that began in the second half of 2023 and the growth heavily focused in specific sectors such as munitions and construction. Until 2022, Pyongyang continued to record negative economic growth for the last consecutive years.

“Pyongyang’s 3 percent range growth and domestic sector growth depend heavily on the Russia-Ukraine war. If Russia stops ordering the armories and reciprocal aid stops, North Korea’s arms plants and factories will become immediately useless.”

The analysis estimated the accumulated economic value of North Korea’s arms exports to Russia since August 2023 and troop deployments since October 2024 at approximately $11 billion (14.67 trillion won) as of late last year. If the scale of arms exports and troop deployments keeps at last year’s levels, the cumulative economic value is projected to reach around $16 billion by the end of this year.

The analysis also noted that prices of certain goods in North Korea’s private markets, known as jangmadang, rose by triple-digit percentages.

“Between the first quarter of 2024 and the third quarter of 2026, the North Korean won plummeted against major foreign currencies, with exchange rates for the U.S. dollar and Chinese yuan surging by 646.5 percent and 697.2 percent, respectively. Over the same period, market prices for essential commodities skyrocketed: rice rose by 599.4 percent, corn by 447 percent, pork by 368.3 percent, gasoline by 527 percent and diesel by 669.8 percent.”

韩国国家情报院下属智库表示，朝鲜近期3%左右的经济增长是俄乌战争带来的暂时性意外之财，可能会抑制国内消费。国家安全战略研究所高级研究员林秀浩（音译）周四发表的一份报告指出，朝鲜的经济增长主要集中在重工业和建筑业，对民众生活几乎没有益处。分析称，朝鲜的经济增长严重依赖对俄罗斯的武器出口，一旦俄罗斯停止订购武器并停止对朝鲜的援助，经济增长可能会放缓。

该报告引用韩国央行的估计，朝鲜2025年的实际GDP增长率为3.5%，2023年为3.1%，2024年为3.7%。

分析估计，截至 2025 年底，自 2023 年 8 月以来对俄罗斯的武器出口和自 2024 年 10 月以来的部队部署累计经济价值约为 110 亿美元。

如果武器出口和军队部署继续保持去年的水平，预计到 2026 年底，其累计经济价值将达到约 160 亿美元。

从 2024 年第一季度到 2026 年第三季度，美元和人民币兑朝鲜元的汇率分别上涨了 646.5% 和 697.2%。

同期，据报道，大米市场价格上涨了 599.4%，玉米上涨了 447%，猪肉上涨了 368.3%，汽油上涨了 527%，柴油上涨了 669.8%。

发布于2026年11月1日下午4:08（韩国标准时间）

10月21日，人们在平壤参观全​​国服装鞋履展览会。（美联社-韩联社）

韩国情报机构下属智库周日发布的一份分析报告称，朝鲜近期3%左右的经济增长是俄乌战争带来的“暂时性战争意外之财”，这可能会导致国内消费下降。

韩国国家安全战略研究所（INSS）是韩国国家情报院（NIS）下属的一家国营智库。该研究所周四发布了一篇题为《朝鲜经济真的在蓬勃发展吗？》的研究报告。高级研究员林秀浩在报告中写道：“朝鲜目前享受的并非国内经济的真正增长，而是一种掠夺性扩张——一种建立在战争利润和通货膨胀税基础上的政权财政的暂时性意外之财。”

“朝鲜近期的经济增长主要依靠单方面大力发展重工业和建筑业……这些设施和制造的军火几乎没有给民众生活带来任何实际好处，”他补充道。

报告援引韩国央行的估计数据，指出朝鲜2025年实际国内生产总值将增长3.5%，此前2023年和2024年分别增长3.1%和3.7%，连续三年增速维持在3%左右。报告称，考虑到朝鲜自2023年下半年开始对俄罗斯出口大量武器，且经济增长高度集中于军火和建筑等特定领域，这一增速低于其他发展中国家。截至2022年，平壤的经济增速已连续多年为负增长。

“平壤3%的经济增长率和国内产业增长严重依赖于俄乌战争。如果俄罗斯停止向朝鲜订购武器，相应的援助也停止，朝鲜的武器工厂将立即失去作用。”

分析估计，截至去年年底，朝鲜自2023年8月以来对俄罗斯的武器出口以及自2024年10月以来向俄罗斯部署军队所造成的累计经济价值约为110亿美元（14.67万亿韩元）。如果武器出口和军队部署的规模保持去年的水平，预计到今年年底，累计经济价值将达到约160亿美元。

分析还指出，朝鲜私人市场（称为“集市”）中某些商品的价格上涨了三位数百分比。

“2024年第一季度至2026年第三季度期间，朝鲜元对主要外币大幅贬值，其中对美元和人民币的汇率分别飙升646.5%和697.2%。同期，基本生活必需品市场价格飞涨：大米上涨599.4%，玉米上涨447%，猪肉上涨368.3%，汽油上涨527%，柴油上涨669.8%。”