Dems in array: Party leaders enter the midterms ‘confident and paranoid’

No part of a rolling, decadelong existential crisis is ever easy, even when things seem on the cusp of going well — and especially when Democrats have had their hopes raised and dashed so many times.

“It’s a little bit of deja vu,” said Elaine Luria, who in 2018 flipped Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District in the Democratic midterm wave during Donald Trump’s first term, held onto it in a squeaker in 2020 to help make up a slim majority, lost it in 2022 as part of Republicans winning their own small majority, and is now running to get it back .

“If you see how people are feeling today, the energy on the ground — the second time around living through this hell of the Trump administration … people want change,” Luria said. “They can’t take it anymore.”

The path to a Democratic majority runs through this district, Luria said onstage in the small theater of Batten University. Early voting data suggests Democrats are outperforming Republicans. The energy within the party is bubbling.

Internal polls described to CNN have Democratic leaders already smiling about how the midterms seem to be ending, even as they will bare-knuckle through the results as they come in Tuesday. They will enter the midterms with a 9-point advantage over Republicans in the generic congressional ballot, according to CNN’s Poll of Polls .

“Republicans are closing talking about ballrooms and backsides. That’s the disarray the Republicans are in,” said New York Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic leader who joined Luria on Saturday, taking a swipe at Trump’s remake of the White House and his reviews of Republican physiques .

After Jeffries spoke, the crowd filed out grabbing signs and other campaign material, heading out to knock a few more doors. Jeffries was heading to a plane to try to save the seat of Rep. Shomari Figures , whose Alabama district Republicans targeted after the Supreme Court’s decision hollowing out the Voting Rights Act this spring.

“There are going to be so many close races that you can’t predict — my guess is at least 20, the loser will get 49% — so it’s just going to be difficult to predict,” said Rep. Bobby Scott of Virginia as he left the Luria rally, describing himself as upbeat but unsure.

Sen. Chris Van Hollen chaired the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm in 2018, when the party successfully defended several Senate seats it had been projected to lose while falling short of a majority. The Maryland senator said those elections were dominated by distraught Democrats talking about “the resistance.”

This year, as he’s been out campaigning from New Mexico to Georgia to New Hampshire, Van Hollen said, he’s been seeing a broader turn from those who backed Trump for a second term because they wanted the lower prices and end to foreign wars he promised.

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“This time what’s different is on these promises that candidate Trump made that helped him win votes among his coalition, he’s done a 180,” Van Hollen told CNN.

Rahm Emanuel, the former Chicago mayor and congressman who helped oversee the campaigns that led to the midterms romp during George W. Bush’s second term, said the sense he’s getting from voters is different from 2006. He believes there is a backlash from Americans enraged by corruption, particularly among Black and Latino voters.

In 2006, “the emotion was disappointed, tired,” Emanuel said. “Here, it’s anger and bitterness. And that tells you something about the motivation.”

That doesn’t mean Emanuel is going into Tuesday fully confident that the polls aren’t missing the level of support for Trump and Republicans and that turnout won’t bring surprises as the precinct breakdowns come in.

“I keep checking to make sure we’re not all talking to each other. So I’m walking around looking for anything, ‘Please give me a negative,’” Emanuel said. To his fellow Democrats anxious that they’re about to be disappointed again, Emanuel added, “You might be right, but you may want to use that energy in a productive way rather than sitting around. Text, email, phone call, stand in the middle of the highway. I don’t care what you do, but just use it. There’s nothing productive getting done by being sitting there and being nervous.”

Operatives in both parties have been stunned at the cynicism coming across in focus groups, spanning every geographic, demographic, age and political category. Politics is, to many, seen as a game for the insiders in a world that looks more and more like a playground for the rich and powerful, with everyone else left behind while their costs go up and their lives get worse.

The candidates are hearing it all on the trail, in supermarket aisles, or when showing up to vote early themselves. Anger, disappointment, abandonment — that’s what’s coursing through American voters as they head to the polls.

“Confident and paranoid” is how Washington state Rep. Suzan DelBene, the chair of the House Democrats’ campaign arm, described her mindset going into Tuesday.

Netting the three seats that would put her party in the majority seems a given to DelBene — but then again, she went through the final days of the election two years ago, when the majority also felt in reach. The paranoia, she says, comes from the ways she can see Trump trying to interfere with the election results.

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DelBene ticked through conversations she’s been having on the trail, from an early voting center in an Ohio district that Democrats believe they can hold to a Meals on Wheels location in an Arizona district they are hoping to flip. At every stop, she says, the economic pain is palpable. At every stop, she tries to get voters to believe that Democrats are ready to come in with some real solutions.

Voting early last week, Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb said he talked to a woman who was lamenting how the price of her groceries and prescriptions have gone up. She brought her whole family with her to the polling place. To her, that seemed like the only thing to do. But Bibb said he’s worried Democrats gleeful about big wins are going to misunderstand why she and others bothered to give voting one more chance.

He understands the cynicism out in the country, Bibb said. He hopes other Democrats do too, and he’s already starting to organize with fellow mayors on how to press Washington, DC, to respond if and when the results come in as he’s hoping.

“We can’t miss this moment with just hearings and impeachment proceedings,” Bibb said. “People need to see their pocketbooks improve.”

Before anyone starts counting committee chairmanships, Van Hollen said, first they need to actually win. As he stumps around the country, the senator often ends by telling the story of the 2017 races for the Virginia House of Delegates. At the end, control was decided by one seat, and the election of that seat was a tie, leaving it decided under state law by a game of chance —in the case, drawing slips of paper out of a bowl. Republicans won.

“I would not rely on these polls,” Van Hollen said. “My plea is: Don’t take anything for granted, don’t let control come down to one campaign.”

That can be hard for the voters and candidates and leaders alike. DelBene says she’s been spending the final stretch of the campaign doing a lot of pep talks.

“It’s a very stressful time. Folks are tired. They’ve been working incredibly hard,” DelBene said. “I have a lot of conversations with folks just to say, ‘Keep going.’ The one thing about an election is: There is an end date.”

长达十年的持续性生存危机，无论何时都绝非易事，即便事情似乎即将好转——尤其是在民主党人的希望一次次被点燃又一次次破灭的情况下。

“这有点像似曾相识的感觉，”伊莱恩·卢里亚说道。她在2018年唐纳德·特朗普第一任期内，在民主党中期选举浪潮中赢得了弗吉尼亚州第二国会选区，在2020年以微弱优势保住了该选区，帮助共和党获得了微弱多数席位，在2022年共和党赢得微弱多数席位的过程中失去了该选区，现在她正在竞选夺回该选区。

“如果你看看人们现在的感受，看看民众的情绪——第二次经历特朗普政府带来的地狱般局面……人们渴望改变，”卢里亚说。“他们再也无法忍受了。”

卢里亚在巴顿大学小剧场的舞台上说，民主党要想赢得多数席位，就必须经过这个选区。早期投票数据显示，民主党人的表现优于共和党人。党内士气高涨。

据CNN报道，内部民调显示，民主党领导人已经对中期选举的最终结果感到欣喜，尽管他们将在周二正式公布结果后全力应对。根据CNN的民调汇总，他们在国会普选中领先共和党9个百分点。

“共和党人最后还在谈论舞厅和屁股。这就是共和党人现在的混乱局面，”纽约州众议员哈基姆·杰弗里斯说道。这位民主党领袖周六与卢里亚一同出席活动，抨击了特朗普对白宫的改造以及他对共和党人身材的评价。

杰弗里斯演讲结束后，人群鱼贯而出，抓起标语和其他竞选材料，准备继续挨家挨户敲门拉票。杰弗里斯则要赶往机场，试图保住众议员肖马里·菲格斯的席位。今年春天，最高法院的裁决削弱了《投票权法案》的效力，共和党人便将目标对准了菲格斯所在的阿拉巴马州选区。

“将会有很多势均力敌的竞选，你无法预测结果——我猜至少有 20 场，失败者将获得 49% 的选票——所以很难预测结果，”弗吉尼亚州众议员鲍比·斯科特在离开卢里亚的集会时说道，他形容自己既乐观又不确定。

2018年，克里斯·范霍伦参议员担任参议院民主党竞选委员会主席。那一年，民主党成功保住了几个原本预计会失去的参议院席位，但最终未能获得多数席位。这位来自马里兰州的参议员表示，那次选举充斥着沮丧的民主党人谈论“抵抗”的声音。

范霍伦表示，今年他从新墨西哥州到佐治亚州再到新罕布什尔州进行竞选活动时，发现支持特朗普连任的人正在发生更广泛的转变，因为他们想要他承诺的更低物价和结束对外战争。

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“这次不同的是，特朗普候选人当年做出的那些帮助他赢得联盟支持者选票的承诺，他已经来了个180度大转弯，”范霍伦告诉CNN。

曾任芝加哥市长和国会议员的拉姆·伊曼纽尔表示，他从选民那里感受到的情绪与2006年不同。伊曼纽尔曾协助乔治·W·布什第二任期内开展竞选活动，最终导致中期选举大获全胜。他认为，美国民众对腐败感到愤怒，尤其是在黑人和拉丁裔选民中，出现了反弹情绪。

伊曼纽尔说，2006年，“人们的情绪是失望和疲惫。而现在，是愤怒和痛苦。这说明了他们的动机。”

但这并不意味着伊曼纽尔对周二的选举充满信心，认为民调没有低估特朗普和共和党的支持率，而且随着各选区投票结果的出炉，投票率不会带来意外。

“我一直在确认我们是不是都在互相交流。所以我四处走动，寻找任何‘请给我一个否定结果’之类的消息，”伊曼纽尔说道。对于那些担心再次失望的民主党同僚，伊曼纽尔补充道：“你们或许是对的，但你们应该把精力用在更有意义的事情上，而不是闲坐着。发短信、发邮件、打电话，甚至站在高速公路中间。我不在乎你们做什么，但一定要利用好这股劲头。坐在那里焦虑不安，什么有意义的事情都做不成。”

两党的工作人员都对焦点小组访谈中流露出的愤世嫉俗感到震惊，这种愤世嫉俗的情绪涵盖了各个地域、人口统计特征、年龄和政治群体。在许多人看来，政治已沦为圈内人的游戏，而这个世界越来越像富人和权贵的游乐场，其他人则被抛在后面，生活成本不断攀升，生活每况愈下。

候选人在竞选活动中、超市货架旁，甚至在提前投票时，都能听到各种各样的声音。愤怒、失望、被抛弃感——这些情绪正在美国选民前往投票站时涌上心头。

华盛顿州众议员、众议院民主党竞选机构主席苏珊·德尔贝内用“既自信又焦虑”来形容她周二的心态。

德尔贝内认为，拿下能让她的政党获得多数席位的三个席位似乎已成定局——但话说回来，两年前的选举最后几天，她也曾感到触手可及多数席位。她说，这种担忧源于她预见到特朗普会以各种方式干预选举结果。

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德尔贝内细数着她在竞选途中与选民的交谈，从俄亥俄州一个民主党人认为可以保住的选区的提前投票中心，到亚利桑那州一个他们希望翻盘的选区的送餐服务点。她说，每到一处，经济困境都显而易见。每到一处，她都努力让选民相信，民主党人已经准备好拿出一些切实可行的解决方案。

上周提前投票时，克利夫兰市长贾斯汀·比布表示，他遇到一位女士，她抱怨食品杂货和处方药的价格上涨。她带着全家一起去了投票站。对她来说，这似乎是唯一的办法。但比布表示，他担心那些因大获全胜而沾沾自喜的民主党人会误解她和其他人为何还要再投一次票。

比布说，他理解国内的愤世嫉俗情绪。他希望其他民主党人也能理解，而且他已经开始与其他市长组织起来，商讨如果选举结果如他所愿，该如何向华盛顿特区施压，促使其做出回应。

“我们不能只顾听证会和弹劾程序而错失良机，”比布说。“人们需要看到自己的钱包得到改善。”

范霍伦说，在任何人开始统计委员会主席的席位之前，首先他们得真正赢得选举。这位参议员在全国各地巡回演讲时，经常以讲述2017年弗吉尼亚州众议院选举的故事作为结尾。最终，众议院的控制权仅以一席之差决定，而这一席位的选举结果为平局，根据州法律，最终只能通过抽签来决定——也就是从碗里抽纸条。共和党人赢得了选举。

范霍伦说：“我不会依赖这些民调。我的呼吁是：不要想当然，不要让控制权落入某个竞选阵营手中。”

这对选民、候选人和领导人来说都可能很困难。德尔贝内说，在竞选的最后阶段，她一直在做大量的鼓舞士气的演讲。

“现在是非常紧张的时期。大家都很疲惫，他们一直都在拼命工作，”德尔贝内说。“我经常和大家聊天，鼓励他们‘坚持下去’。选举有一点很重要：它有结束日期。”