A field guide to the conspiracy theories you’ll likely see on Election Day

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It’s the most important day in American democracy. It’s also the Super Bowl for misinformation on the internet.

With tens of millions of people voting in tens of thousands of polling locations across the continental United States and beyond, Election Day is the perfect breeding ground for viral conspiracy theories and confusion.

Elections are run by humans who rely on machines, from simple printers to sophisticated technology designed to protect the integrity of the vote. Humans, like machines, can sometimes make mistakes. Printers jam, a fuse blows and the power is cut, poll workers don’t have the right keys to open a polling location. Mishaps like this happen more than you might think.

Election workers have contingency plans for just about every scenario to do their best to ensure no one is disenfranchised. If a polling location is delayed opening because someone forgot a key, its opening hours can be extended by a judge beyond the regular closing time. If there is an issue with a voting machine, election workers can have voters put their ballots into a secure ballot box and the ballot will be protected and processed later.

Minor mishaps and mistakes will almost certainly happen. They are not, however, automatic proof of malice. But in our hyper-polarized, hyper-online world, any Election Day snafu has the potential to spiral into a storm of speculation.

Further complicating matters, elections are run locally, not federally. Rules, processes, voting machines and contingency plans vary depending on the state, city, township or tribal land where you vote.

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All election systems are designed to keep the vote secure and maintain election integrity, but amid the maelstrom of social media, any voting process that appears unfamiliar is often framed as suspicious — a sign that something untoward is afoot.

I have spent the past five federal election cycles tracking the spread of misinformation. Here are a few things to watch out for on Election Day:

There are almost always some issues somewhere at the start of polling day.

Voters who have shown up early to cast their ballot might post on social media their frustration about whatever issue they’re experiencing. These understandable, and not ill-intended, posts on social media will now often get picked up by the algorithms and people seeking to question the integrity of the electoral process. Before the voter knows it, their early morning social media complaint has ricocheted across the internet, been viewed millions of times, and woven into whatever narrative interested parties are trying to portray.

During the last midterm elections in 2022, an issue with printers cropped up at some polling locations in Maricopa County, Arizona. Officials there quickly implemented a contingency plan and people were able to securely cast their vote. Indeed, a Maricopa judge who was asked to adjudicate the issue later that day said there was no evidence that anyone who wanted to vote was not able to.

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And yet, prominent election deniers on social media spent hours that Election Day pointing to the issue in Maricopa as sign of a grand conspiracy to “steal” the election.

A classic of the genre!

As sure as John King standing at CNN’s Magic Wall on election night, you can be sure someone will post a video on Election Day they claim shows a machine changing their vote.

This issue often occurs due to human error or sometimes because of an issue with the older touchscreen technology used in some voting machines.

If this does happen, voters can almost always talk to an election worker, and there is usually a process in place to ensure their vote is cast correctly.

It’s worth asking if you see these videos circulating on Election Day if the person who posted it actually sought to remedy the issue in-person with the election staff at the polling location — or if they are primarily motivated by chasing social media views.

Artificial intelligence is permeating every aspect of our lives. From kids using it to do their homework to video tools that can make it look like grandpa is dancing the Macarena.

Given its ubiquity, it may be hard to believe it was only a couple of years ago that creating convincing fake videos took considerable effort and skill.

On Election Day 2020, a video of a ballot marked for President Trump being set on fire spread across social media, it was even shared by the president’s son Eric. In 2024, a video purporting to show an election worker tearing up ballots also went viral.

Both videos were confirmed to be fake, and it turned out that Russian operatives were behind the 2024 video. The people who made the fakes had to go to some effort, at least, to print out fake ballots to try to make the videos convincing.

New research from the nonpartisan Brennan Center shows how videos and images convincingly purporting to show some kind of electoral malfeasance can now be created with the click of a button using AI chat tools available to all of us.

Be prepared for a lot of fake videos this Tuesday!

Once the polls close, attention will turn to the count.

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Different states count their votes in different ways. Some states are slower than others. In 2020, that difference in pace w as the source of endless conspiracy theories that persist to this day.

In some states, the Democratic Party often makes significant gains through mail-in ballots that get counted after Election Day. This might mean a candidate who appears ahead in the early stage of the count, might fall behind when all the votes are tallied.

Likewise, results arriving from heavily red or heavily blue districts might suddenly change who is leading the count. All of this is overseen by experts, representatives from both parties who observe vote counts, and is explained at length by our election expert colleagues. But still, the conspiracy theories persist.

The tsunami of misinformation can be overwhelming.

On Tuesday, the zone will very likely be flooded with endless accounts of alleged voter fraud, many of them will likely be amplified by the president of the United States.

American elections are not perfect – no system is. But it’s important to remember on this Election Day that there are thousands of devoted election officials working across the country to ensure the election is safe and secure.

There is also a committed industry of election deniers, motivated by politics or money or both, devoted to telling you otherwise. They will seek to flood the zone, to create the impression that there is a lot of smoke in the hope you might believe there is a fire.

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这是美国民主历史上最重要的一天。同时，它也是互联网上虚假信息的超级碗。

在美国大陆及其他地区数以千计的投票站，数千万人参与投票，选举日是各种阴谋论和混乱情绪迅速传播的完美温床。

选举由人操作，而人又依赖于各种机器，从简单的打印机到旨在保障投票公正性的复杂技术。人与机器一样，有时也会犯错。打印机卡纸、保险丝烧断导致断电、投票站工作人员没有打开投票站的钥匙等等。这类事故的发生频率可能​​比你想象的要高。

选举工作人员针对几乎所有可能出现的情况都制定了应急预案，尽最大努力确保没有人被剥夺投票权。如果投票站因有人忘记带钥匙而延迟开放，法官可以延长其开放时间，使其超过正常的关闭时间。如果投票机出现故障，选举工作人员可以安排选民将选票放入安全的投票箱，选票将得到妥善保护，并在之后进行处理。

小失误和小错误几乎不可避免。然而，它们并不能自动证明存在恶意。但在我们这个高度两极分化、高度网络化的世界里，任何选举日的小插曲都有可能演变成一场猜测风暴。

更复杂的是，选举是由地方而非联邦政府统一组织的。规则、流程、投票机和应急预案因投票地点的州、市、乡镇或部落土地而异。

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所有选举制度的设计目的都是为了确保投票安全和维护选举公正性，但在社交媒体的狂潮中，任何看起来不熟悉的投票过程往往都会被视为可疑的——这表明有不正当的事情正在发生。

过去五届联邦选举中，我一直在追踪虚假信息的传播。以下是选举日当天需要注意的几点：

投票日伊始，几乎总会遇到一些问题。

提前投票的选民可能会在社交媒体上发泄对遇到的各种问题的不满。这些可以理解且并无恶意的帖子，如今却常常被算法和那些质疑选举公正性的人所利用。选民还没反应过来，他们清晨在社交媒体上的抱怨就已经在互联网上迅速传播，被浏览数百万次，并被各方利益集团编织进他们试图构建的各种叙事之中。

在2022年中期选举期间，亚利桑那州马里科帕县的部分投票站出现了打印机故障。当地官员迅速启动了应急预案，确保选民能够安全投票。当天晚些时候，一位被要求对此事作出裁决的马里科帕县法官表示，没有证据表明有任何选民因故无法投票。

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然而，在选举日当天，社交媒体上一些知名的选举否认者花了几个小时，将马里科帕县的选举问题作为“窃取”选举的巨大阴谋的标志。

该类型的经典之作！

就像约翰·金在选举之夜站在 CNN 的“魔术墙”前一样确定无疑，你可以肯定，选举日当天会有人发布一段视频，声称视频显示有机器篡改了他们的选票。

这个问题通常是由于人为错误造成的，有时也可能是由于某些投票机中使用的老式触摸屏技术出现问题造成的。

如果发生这种情况，选民几乎总能与选举工作人员交谈，而且通常会有相应的程序来确保他们的选票得到正确投出。

如果你在选举日看到这些视频流传，那么值得问问，发布视频的人是否真的试图亲自到投票站与选举工作人员解决问题，还是他们的主要动机是追求社交媒体的浏览量。

人工智能正在渗透到我们生活的方方面面。从孩子们用它来做作业，到能让爷爷看起来像是在跳玛卡瑞纳舞的视频工具，无一例外。

鉴于其普遍性，人们可能很难相信，就在几年前，制作逼真的虚假视频还需要相当大的努力和技巧。

2020年大选日，一段投给特朗普总统的选票被焚烧的视频在社交媒体上疯传，甚至连总统的儿子埃里克也转发了这段视频。2024年，一段据称显示选举工作人员撕毁选票的视频也迅速走红。

两段视频均被证实为伪造，其中2024年那段视频的幕后黑手是俄罗斯特工。制作这些伪造视频的人至少费了一番功夫，打印出假选票，试图让视频看起来更具说服力。

来自无党派的布伦南中心的最新研究表明，现在只需点击一个按钮，利用我们所有人都能使用的 AI 聊天工具，就可以创建出令人信服的视频和图像，声称显示某种选举舞弊行为。

做好准备，本周二会有很多虚假视频！

投票结束后，人们的注意力将转向计票。

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各州计票方式不尽相同，有些州计票速度较慢。2020年，这种计票速度的差异引发了层出不穷的阴谋论，至今仍未平息。

在一些州，民主党经常通过选举日后清点的邮寄选票获得显著优势。这意味着，在计票初期领先的候选人，最终可能会在所有选票统计完毕后落后。

同样，来自共和党或民主党铁票区的计票结果可能会突然改变目前的领先者。所有这些都由专家监督，两党代表都会观察计票过程，我们的选举专家同事也会对此进行详细解释。但即便如此，阴谋论依然层出不穷。

铺天盖地的虚假信息令人难以招架。

周二，该地区很可能充斥着大量关于所谓选民欺诈的报道，其中许多报道可能会被美国总统放大。

美国选举并非完美无缺——任何制度都不可能完美。但在这个选举日，我们必须记住，全国各地有成千上万尽职尽责的选举官员在努力确保选举安全可靠。

此外，还有一群别有用心的选举否认者，他们受政治或金钱（或两者兼而有之）的驱使，致力于散布相反的言论。他们会试图铺天盖地地散布谣言，制造“烟雾弥漫”的假象，希望你相信真的发生了火灾。