The huge stakes of an unusually momentous midterm election

Midterm elections are always a verdict on a sitting president. But the 2026 edition could become something rarer and more significant — a catalyst that points the way to a new political era.

Tuesday’s election is critical for Trump’s presidency and legacy. It could either sustain the MAGA movement’s decadelong grip on national life or initiate its decline. It could result in redemption for Democrats two years after their crushing defeat in the last presidential election. And in both parties, it will demarcate the opening chapters of the 2028 presidential race .

The midterms are the first chance for voters to place some constitutional restraints on a freewheeling president who has the most aggressive view of executive power in modern times.

If Democrats win back the House of Representatives or the Senate on Tuesday, Trump will face a seismic tide of investigations: into his conduct; his Cabinet; alleged government corruption ; his legacy construction spree ; turmoil at the Pentagon ; and his own fortune , which has swelled since he returned to the White House.

More broadly, the election is also a referendum on nearly two divisive years in which Trump has sought to dismantle swaths of the federal government and used the power of his office to target political enemies. Abroad, he’s replaced traditional global leadership with America First nationalism while starting a new Middle East war ; fraternizing with Russian and Chinese dictators; and carrying out extrajudicial killings of alleged traffickers in the Pacific and Caribbean.

But Democrats also have a lot at stake as they tried to repair a brand tarnished by high inflation and lax border security under President Joe Biden’s administration and the chaos of his aborted reelection bid.

For voters to trust them again, they must prove they’re more than just anti-Trump; they must deliver results at a frantic political moment and despite a president who will put up ferocious resistance. Failure would invite voters’ wrath in 2028.

Election Day could also turn into a crucible for US democracy itself. Trump has already challenged the conduct of elections in Alaska and California and drawn comparisons to his effort to overturn the 2020 election by signaling last week that he’d accept the results of the midterms only if he deems them fair.

But most importantly, the elections are a chance for politicians to listen to the people whom they often seem to forget they serve. Millions of Americans are desperate for relief from the costs of food, housing and healthcare and feel rising anxiety about the possible impact of AI on their job security.

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Trump is the most unorthodox president of modern times. But his decision to make the election about his performance amid a deeply unpopular war and boiling public dissatisfaction with his decisions was iconoclastic even for him.

His erratic final pitch, delivered on a journey through wobbling GOP districts in red states, touched on almost everything but the economic issue voters care about most. He boasted about the new ballroom he’s building at the White House; bizarrely lauded the backside of Ohio Sen. John Husted ; and lashed out with some of the most explicit anti-Muslim and bigoted rhetoric of any US election campaign.

On Sunday, the president shrugged off polls showing Democrats heavily favored to recapture the House and threatening multiple Republican senators in states he won by wide margins, instead promising a triumph for the GOP on Tuesday night.

“A vote for any Democrat anywhere in the country is a vote to put a deranged group of extremists into power and it could really hurt us, and we are not going to let anything hurt us, because we have the greatest country right now,” Trump said in Iowa. House Speaker Mike Johnson, at Trump’s side, vowed, “We are going to win and shock the world on Tuesday night. I believe it.”

But if voters react badly to Trump’s depiction of a new economic “golden age” and evident indifference to their struggles, he will be consigned to a lonely political plight — shocking even for a man once subject to multiple criminal cases. His self-themed campaign would make it an unusually personal blow, especially if his handpicked Senate candidates lose in states like Texas and Georgia. The idea that Trumpism has permanently changed politics would be called into question, and the GOP would be plunged into soul-searching over its future direction.

And next year, the isolation would become more acute under the relentless pressure of Democratic investigations after the end of a rubber-stamp Republican Congress.

A good night for Democrats would count as a political earthquake only two years after Trump staged one of history’s greatest comebacks by beating Democratic nominee Kamala Harris to win a nonconsecutive second term.

Yet even if the party were to win both chambers, Trump will still enjoy considerable clout, including with expansive constitutional authority to conduct foreign policy. The president’s history of spurning checks and balances means he’d fight any attempt by Democrats in Congress to rein in his powers, with showdowns likely over the war, budgets and policy-making.

But if Democrats rack up the net gain of four seats needed to win the Senate, they will acquire the ability to block Trump’s campaign to complete his conservative transformation of the judiciary and potentially to fill any new Supreme Court vacancy.

And any potential Democratic majorities could also challenge Trump on his conduct of the war with Iran — which he is waging without congressional authorization — and funding for military operations if he has failed to end the conflict by the time new lawmakers are seated on January 3.

“Right now, (it) is about stabilizing the country itself and providing some check against not just an out-of-control presidency and a corrupt presidency but everyone’s costs,” Democratic Sen. Brian Schatz told CNN’s Kasie Hunt last month. “Diesel, gasoline agricultural products, consumer products … everything is up, and I think people want to see us do not everything but a few things that will take the pain out of what they’re experiencing.”

But while the loss of Congress could turn Trump into a lame duck, he’s unlikely to act like one. The history of his first term suggests pitched legal battles over congressional subpoenas and attempts by Democratic investigators to penetrate deep into the administration and trawl for evidence in his family finances.

The president’s veto power, and the requirement for 60 votes to pass major legislation in the Senate, means Trump will be able to temper Democratic hopes for sweeping change.

The midterm results will also shape the 2028 presidential race likely to explode into life as soon as the votes are counted.

A huge GOP defeat could raise doubts about whether Trumpism will outlast Trump’s political career. Potential presidential candidates such as Vice President JD Vance would confront the delicate task of separating themselves politically from a president who remains a hero to the grassroots but who, according to polls, has lost the rest of the country’s confidence on almost every issue.

Democrats lining up for a tilt at their party’s presidential nomination will parse midterm results for winning messages. Key figures such as Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro could enhance credentials with thumping reelection wins.

The election aftermath is sure to reignite the party’s debate over ideology. If progressive candidates like Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed win their races, movement leaders such as New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will argue the country is ready to embrace more left-wing policies on healthcare and the economy.

The schism between progressives and moderates burst into the open on Sunday when defeated Michigan Democratic primary candidate Haley Stevens sensationally endorsed Republican nominee Mike Rogers over El-Sayed, ostensibly amid a clash over Israel.

Midterms polls also show limited public confidence that Democrats can meaningfully reorient the nation. A 2026 victory would therefore turn into a 2028 audition.

“The Democrats have to prove in 2027 they have won,” former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel told CNN’s Brianna Keilar last week. “I’m for comprehensive hearings, follow the money, everything. Venezuela … the Russian money, the oil, all these deals,” said Emanuel, a possible 2028 Democratic presidential primary candidate.

“But if you don’t do ethics reform, you haven’t delivered change. … If you don’t deliver a rise in the minimum wage, you haven’t addressed affordability.”

This is the risk for Democratic leaders: Trump’s intractability and veto power could reduce them to passing endless affordability bills that go nowhere. That won’t impress angry voters.

But that’s for next year, if Democrats win.

The last rites of the midterms must first play out. And Trump still doesn’t seem to get the message. In a telling symbol of obliviousness, he’ll deliver his closing argument in Washington on Monday at the National Mall’s Reflecting Pool, which was just repaired at great expense and which showcases his legacy fixation.

With millions of Americans in need of tangible economic relief, the event may deliver an eloquent explanation of why Trump and the GOP risk a painful reckoning on Election Day.

中期选举历来是对现任总统的一次评判。但2026年的中期选举可能会变得更加罕见和意义重大——它或许会成为开启新政治时代的催化剂。

周二的选举对特朗普的总统任期和政治遗产至关重要。它要么能延续“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动对美国社会长达十年的影响力，要么会开启其衰落的序幕。它也可能让民主党在上次总统选举惨败两年后迎来救赎。而对于两党而言，此次选举都将开启2028年总统大选的序幕。

中期选举是选民第一次有机会对一位行事自由、对行政权力持有最激进观点的总统施加一些宪法约束。

如果民主党在周二赢回众议院或参议院，特朗普将面临铺天盖地的调查：调查他的行为；他的内阁；涉嫌政府腐败；他留下的建设遗产；五角大楼的动荡；以及他自重返白宫以来不断膨胀的个人财富。

更广泛地说，这次选举也是对近两年来分裂局面的一次全民公投。在这两年里，特朗普试图瓦解联邦政府的大片部门，并利用职权打击政治对手。在海外，他以“美国优先”的民族主义取代了传统的全球领导力，同时发动了一场新的中东战争；与俄罗斯和中国的独裁者勾结；并在太平洋和加勒比地区对涉嫌贩运人口者进行法外处决。

但民主党人也面临着巨大的风险，因为他们试图修复因乔·拜登总统执政期间的高通胀和边境安全松懈以及他竞选连任失败的混乱局面而受损的形象。

要想重新赢得选民的信任，他们必须证明自己不仅仅是反特朗普；他们必须在当前动荡的政治局势下，顶住总统的猛烈反抗，拿出成绩来。否则，他们将在2028年招致选民的愤怒。

选举日也可能成为美国民主本身的一次严峻考验。特朗普已经对阿拉斯加州和加利福尼亚州的选举程序提出质疑，并将此次中期选举与他试图推翻2020年大选结果的努力相提并论。他上周表示，只有在他认为中期选举结果公平公正的情况下，才会接受这些结果。

但最重要的是，选举是政客们倾听民众心声的机会，他们常常忘记自己是为民众服务的。数百万美国人迫切希望减轻食品、住房和医疗保健方面的经济负担，并且越来越担心人工智能可能对其工作保障造成的影响。

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特朗普是现代史上最不循规蹈矩的总统。但他在民众对他决策极度不满、战争极不受欢迎的情况下，仍然选择将选举的焦点放在自己的政绩上，这种做法即使对他来说也是离经叛道的。

他最后那场语无伦次的演讲，是在摇摆不定的共和党选区（位于红色州）进行的，几乎涉及了所有方面，唯独没有触及选民最关心的经济问题。他吹嘘自己正在白宫建造新的宴会厅；莫名其妙地称赞俄亥俄州参议员约翰·赫斯特的臀部；并发表了美国历届总统竞选中最露骨的反穆斯林和偏执言论。

周日，总统对民调显示民主党人极有可能重新夺回众议院的控制权以及威胁要攻击他在大胜州的几位共和党参议员不以为然，反而承诺共和党将在周二晚上取得胜利。

特朗普在爱荷华州表示：“在全国任何地方，投票给任何民主党人都等于投票让一群精神错乱的极端分子掌权，这会对我们造成真正的伤害，我们绝不会让任何事情伤害我们，因为我们现在拥有最伟大的国家。” 众议院议长迈克·约翰逊在特朗普身边誓言：“我们将赢得胜利，并在周二晚上震惊世界。我坚信这一点。”

但如果选民对特朗普描绘的新经济“黄金时代”以及他对民众困境的漠视反应强烈，他将陷入孤立无援的政治困境——即使对于一个曾身负多项刑事指控的人来说，这也令人震惊。他以自我为中心的竞选活动将使之成为一次格外沉重的打击，尤其是在他钦点的参议院候选人在德克萨斯州和佐治亚州等关键州落败的情况下。届时，“特朗普主义已永久改变政治格局”的说法将受到质疑，共和党也将陷入对其未来走向的深刻反思。

明年，随着共和党橡皮图章式国会的结束，民主党持续不断的调查压力将使这种孤立局面更加严重。

如果民主党人今晚获胜，那将被视为一场政治地震。而就在两年前，特朗普上演了历史上最伟大的逆转之一，击败民主党候选人卡马拉·哈里斯，赢得了非连续的第二个任期。

即便民主党赢得参众两院的控制权，特朗普仍将拥有相当大的影响力，包括宪法赋予的广泛的外交政策权力。总统过往屡次藐视权力制衡，这意味着他会竭力阻止国会民主党人限制其权力，双方很可能在战争、预算和政策制定等问题上展开激烈对抗。

但如果民主党人净增四个席位以赢得参议院，他们将有能力阻止特朗普完成其对司法机构的保守化改造，并有可能填补任何新的最高法院空缺。

如果特朗普在1月3日新一届国会就职前未能结束这场冲突，那么任何潜在的民主党多数派也可能就他对伊朗的战争行为（他在没有国会授权的情况下发动了这场战争）以及军事行动的资金问题向他提出质疑。

“现在，当务之急是稳定国家局势，不仅要遏制失控的总统和腐败的总统，还要控制所有人的支出，”民主党参议员布莱恩·沙茨上个月告诉CNN的凯西·亨特。“柴油、汽油、农产品、消费品……所有东西都在上涨，我认为人们希望我们做一些事情，而不是包揽一切，而是做一些能够减轻他们痛苦的事情。”

虽然失去国会控制权可能使特朗普成为跛脚鸭总统，但他不太可能像个跛脚鸭那样行事。他第一任期的历史表明，他曾与国会就传票问题展开激烈的法律斗争，民主党调查人员也曾试图深入政府内部，搜集有关其家族财务的证据。

总统的否决权，以及参议院通过重大立法需要 60 票的规定，意味着特朗普能够抑制民主党人对彻底变革的希望。

中期选举结果也将影响 2028 年总统大选，一旦计票结束，这场大选很可能就会迅速升温。

共和党的惨败可能会让人怀疑“特朗普主义”能否在特朗普的政治生涯结束后继续存在。像副总统万斯这样的潜在总统候选人将面临一项棘手的任务：如何在政治上与这位总统划清界限。尽管特朗普在基层民众心中仍然是英雄，但根据民调显示，他在几乎所有问题上都已失去了其他民众的信任。

民主党内各路候选人将仔细分析中期选举结果，从中提炼制胜信息。像佐治亚州参议员乔恩·奥索夫和宾夕法尼亚州州长乔什·夏皮罗这样的关键人物，如果能够大获连任，无疑将大大提升他们的竞选声望。

选举结果势必会再次引发党内关于意识形态的辩论。如果像密歇根州参议员候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德这样的进步派候选人赢得选举，那么像纽约州众议员亚历山大·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯这样的运动领袖将会宣称，美国已经准备好接受更多左翼的医疗保健和经济政策。

进步派和温和派之间的分歧在周日公开爆发，当时密歇根州民主党初选落败的候选人海莉·史蒂文斯出人意料地支持共和党候选人迈克·罗杰斯而不是埃尔-赛义德，表面上是因为双方在以色列问题上存在冲突。

中期选举民调也显示，公众对民主党能否有效重塑国家方向的信心有限。因此，2026年的胜利将变成2028年的选拔。

“民主党人必须在2027年证明他们已经赢了，”前白宫幕僚长拉姆·伊曼纽尔上周告诉CNN的布里安娜·凯拉尔。“我支持举行全面听证会，追查资金流向，所有的一切。委内瑞拉……俄罗斯的资金，石油，所有这些交易，”伊曼纽尔说道，他有可能参加2028年民主党总统候选人初选。

“但是，如果不进行道德改革，就无法真正带来改变。……如果不提高最低工资，就无法解决民众的负担能力问题。”

这就是民主党领导人面临的风险：特朗普的固执己见和否决权可能迫使他们通过一系列毫无成效的减税法案。这无法赢得愤怒选民的青睐。

但这要等到明年，如果民主党获胜的话。

中期选举的最后阶段必须先进行。而特朗普似乎仍然没有意识到这一点。一个意味深长的例子是，他将于周一在华盛顿国家广场的倒影池发表竞选总结陈词。这个倒影池刚刚耗资巨大修缮，也体现了他对政治遗产的执着。

数百万美国人需要切实的经济援助，此次事件或许能雄辩地解释为什么特朗普和共和党会在选举日面临痛苦的清算。