The top 11 Senate seats most likely to flip, the day before the midterms

On the eve of the election, Democrats appear within striking distance of winning the Senate majority, but many seats in play are in toss-up territory in deep-red states that could still break in either party’s direction.

Democrats have expanded the map in ways few predicted at the start of the year, and the national environment has seemed to favor the party for many months. President Donald Trump’s approval rating sits at 34%, according to CNN’s Poll of Polls average, and voter frustration on the economy, the Iran war and corruption appears to be driving Democratic energy across the country.

And for the second time this year , CNN is expanding its list to reflect that.

This list has expanded to 11 seats to add South Carolina, a red state that has grown competitive in late polling. Texas and Kansas – two other seats few envisioned being on the battleground map in January – have moved up in their positions.

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‘Darline is not Lindsey’: Could a Graham really lose South Carolina for the GOP?

Democrats will need to flip four Republican-held seats while holding onto all their own to win the Senate majority this year.

And Republicans are spending heavily to defend their Senate majority, fueled by President Donald Trump’s political network as well as tech titan Elon Musk . Over the final month of the midterms, Republicans are outspending Democrats on advertising in the 11 races on this list: $560 million to $521 million, according to AdImpact data. Excluding Georgia and North Carolina – where Republicans have all but waved the white flag – the gap is significantly larger, about $550 million to $469 million.

Our ranking of the seats most likely to flip in November is based on CNN reporting, including conversations with strategists involved in Senate races, as well as our analysis of candidate fundraising, polling and the partisan environment in the states. The final ranking is not a prediction of who will win individual races or which party will secure control of the US Senate, but they offer a snapshot of where the contests stand as the midterm campaign season ends.

North Carolina is the Senate seat most likely to flip on Tuesday, with Democrats appearing on track to win their first Senate race in the state since 2008. Democrat Roy Cooper, the state’s former governor, was leading GOP Senate nominee Michael Whatley by 14 points among likely voters in a final poll from High Point University/YouGov .

No one is expecting a Democratic margin of victory to be that large in a state Trump won three times. But aware of the issues here, Republicans have pulled back on spending in the final stretch. Democrats spent $10.4 million over the last two weeks compared to $2.5 million from the GOP.

The CNN Poll of Polls average shows former Sen. Sherrod Brown leading GOP Sen. Jon Husted by 5 points, 50% to 45%.

Brown, who lost his bid for a fourth Senate term in 2024, moved early to define Husted, who was appointed to the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance. Democrats have hit Husted hard on data centers, the Epstein files, and corruption. Their most-run ad in the final two weeks reminded voters of Husted’s connection to an energy scandal in the state.

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The top Republican ad during that same period focused on Brown’s stances on taxes and immigration. Ohio’s Senate race has seen the second most spending this cycle, and Republicans outspent Democrats by about $141 million to $102 million in October, according to AdImpact data.

Ohio has trended rightward in the Trump era, and the president traveled to the state three times in the final month to help get Husted across the finish line. But his most widely circulated comments from these rallies focused more on complimenting Husted’s body than issues impacting voters.

Ohio’s race for governor attracted heightened attention in the closing stretch as GOP gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy ran a controversial ad featuring the estranged mother of Amy Acton, his Democratic opponent. Acton has led Ramaswamy in recent polls, further suggesting the landscape might be ripe for Democratic wins on Tuesday.

Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide in 32 years and a CNN Poll of Polls shows no clear leader in the race between James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton.

But a perfect storm of conditions may converge to make the Democratic dream of turning Texas blue a reality, even as the red nature of the state and the onslaught of GOP spending could lead to Democratic heartbreak once again.

A CNN Poll of Polls average shows no clear leader in the contest, but a pair of polls released in the last few days – including one from the New York Times/Siena and another from CNN – show Talarico performing ahead of Paxton, outside the margin of error.

The CNN poll conducted by SSRS last month found the Democrat was benefiting from deeply negative impressions of Paxton and significant support among the Black, Latino and Asian voters in the state who turned toward Trump in 2024.

Fueled by strong fundraising, Talarico dominated the airwaves for the summer months after Paxton’s defeat of GOP Sen. John Cornyn, who warned of a “massacre” for Republican candidates in Texas if the state’s embattled attorney general was the nominee.

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The GOP cavalry eventually came in for Paxton with more than $278 million in ad spending since the primary, according to AdImpact data. Musk – the largest disclosed donor in US politics – singlehandedly accounted for $168 million of the GOP spending on the race, which received more of his funds than any other contest.

Much of the GOP attacks on Talarico have hinged on cultural issues, including criticizing his past statements on gender and religion.

Texas leads all states in early voting with 7.7 million ballots cast, according to data from the Texas secretary of state. Early voting data has shown high turnout in Democratic counties. Latino voters, a voting bloc showing signs this year of shifting away from Trump, have made up a higher share of the early vote than the last election.

Texas GOP Sen. Ted Cruz has sounded the alarm about the early voting surge, saying Friday on his podcast, “We could lose every single statewide race.”

This is still Texas, a bastion of American conservatism. Trump won the state by double digits in 2024, and Republicans are depending on their base turning out in droves on Election Day despite some uneasiness around Paxton’s candidacy. Republicans are also watching how the option of a libertarian candidate might factor into voter decisions on Election Day.

At the start of the cycle, Maine was viewed as one of Democrats’ top pickup opportunities. This Senate race was among the most volatile contests this cycle due to the sexual misconduct allegations around Graham Platner and his eventual exit from the race .

One day out, a CNN Poll of Polls average shows Democrat Troy Jackson leading GOP Sen. Susan Collins by 4 points – 50% to 46%.

Collins is the only GOP incumbent running in a state Kamala Harris won in 2024. And polling also has shown the race is a referendum on Collins, who is running for a sixth term. A CNN poll conducted by SSRS found about three-quarters of likely voters behind each candidate in Maine said their choice is motivated by Collins more than Jackson.

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The outstanding question is whether Collins can outrun her state’s negative views of the GOP and Trump. The senator continues to stress her independent approach, though Democrats argue she sides with Trump most of the time, including in their top ad in the final two weeks.

GOP groups have flooded the state with ads reminding voters what Collins has achieved for the state. The top Republican ad in the closing weeks leveled political and personal attacks against Jackson, calling him “a crook and a creep.”

Alaska moves down two spots as a late-breaking development regarding the two Dan Sullivans could be a wild card.

Republicans have long worried about the inclusion of a second Dan Sullivan, a former schoolteacher, on the four-way ranked-choice ballot in November, but The New York Times reporting alleging Democrats recruited a Senate candidate with the same name as incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan injected new uncertainty in the race.

A NYT/Siena poll released Sunday showed no clear leader in the contest between Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola and Sen. Sullivan – 48% to 46% – suggesting a tightening in the race may have occurred. In August, Peltola came in 8 points ahead of the incumbent Sullivan in the state’s all-party primary in August.

Alaska is notoriously difficult to poll. Peltola out-raised Sullivan in the first two weeks of October and had more cash on hand entering the final stretch. But the GOP slightly outpaced Democrats in ad buys in the state for the last two weeks.

Peltola has denied any involvement in the alleged efforts to stack the ballot, even as Trump has suggested she drop out of the race and state and federal criminal investigations are underway. Legal experts are broadly skeptical that the alleged ballot-stacking rises to the level of a crime.

Alaska’s vote count could take longer than other states due to ranked choice voting and the state allows for mailed ballots postmarked before or on Election Day to be returned to the elections office within 10-15 days. In a close election, there could be a scenario where the Alaska results won’t be known for weeks.

Kansas moves up two spots as GOP Sen. Roger Marshall appears on shaky ground against Democrat Adam Hamilton , who is hoping to be the first Kansas Democrat elected to the US Senate since 1994.

A NYT/Siena poll released Sunday showed Hamilton leading Rogers 49% to 44%, while a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS found no clear leader in the contest. The CNN survey found a majority of likely voters said they would prefer Republicans to control the Senate but 53% view Marshall unfavorably.

Voters across the Midwest, including many farmers and ranchers, are feeling the squeeze of high diesel prices and Trump’s tariffs. A New York Times report about hundreds of former Marshall patients being sued for unpaid bills, with some even being arrested, has emerged as a flashpoint in the race.

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Hamilton, a Methodist megachurch pastor, has tried to stitch together a broad coalition in a state Trump won by 16 points. The president traveled to the state on Sunday to rally his base voters, and Republicans are hoping the red-leaning landscape could ultimately prove insurmountable for Democrats.

But Democrats have made big moves to put the state in play in the final stretch. Democratic groups outspent Republicans by about $45.7 million to $31.5 million in October, and entering the final weeks, Hamilton had $2.9 million in the bank compared to Marshall’s $810,000.

Iowa keeps its spot in the race to replace GOP Sen. Joni Ernst.

CNN’s Poll of Polls average shows no clear leader in the contest between Democrat Josh Turek and GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson who sit at 46% and 45%, respectively.

Trump won Iowa by 13 points in 2024, and the state has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008. Hinson also has proven to be one of the most politically adept Republicans running this cycle. Though she has campaigned alongside the president, Hinson has worked to distance herself from the president on the Iran war, tariffs, and beef imports.

But the GOP congresswoman still faces voter angst over the rising cost of diesel, fertilizer and other goods utilized in the agriculturally reliant state. And like Kansas, Democrats outspent Republicans in October, here by nearly $20 million. A top Democratic ad during that period ties the GOP congresswoman to high gas prices, tariffs and the war with Iran while Republicans have run with an ad dinging Turek on immigration.

An expected strong performance by Rob Sand, the Democratic candidate for governor, could also benefit Turek in the end.

Michigan shifts down two spots, as new signs suggest Democrat Abdul El-Sayed may have an upper hand over GOP former Rep. Mike Rogers – even as a stunning cross-party endorsement came into play in the closing days.

Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens on Sunday decided to abandon El-Sayed and back Rogers, a remarkable break from her party. The simmering tension between El-Sayed and Stevens exploded into public view in the final days of the campaign after a bruising primary – and a recent new argument – that hinged largely on differing views on US aid to Israel.

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The Stevens endorsement, coming less than 48 hours before Election Day, highlights El-Sayed’s challenge in winning over parts of the Democratic coalition that favored Stevens in the primary, notably Black and Jewish voters.

But it also resulted in state and national Democrats – some of them no fans of El-Sayed – issuing strong statements Sunday in his favor. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, whom CNN has reported unofficially backed Stevens in the primary, accused her of a “despicable betrayal.”

CNN’s Poll of Polls average shows El-Sayed leading Rogers in Michigan – 50 to 45%. That includes a NYT/Siena poll , which found El-Sayed with an 11-point advantage. A CNN poll conducted by SSRS last month revealed signs the progressive was consolidating support among Democrats, including earning the support of 95% of Democratic likely voters.

Some 1.5 million early votes had already been cast in the race as of Sunday, approaching half the number that were cast in Michigan during the entirety of the 2022 midterms.

Ultimately, this race could boil down to how Michiganders feel about the economy amid high gas prices and Trump’s trade war with Canada. One of the top Democratic ads for the final two weeks focused on healthcare as they attempted to link Rogers to high costs fueled by pharmaceutical companies.

The president has worked hard to turn out base voters in support of Rogers, who lost a Senate race in 2024 despite Trump appearing at the top of the ticket. But Rogers is also grappling with the unpopularity of Trump’s second term. The president’s approval rating with likely voters sits at 33%, according to CNN’s new poll.

Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas seems to be on more solid footing over GOP former Sen. John Sununu than during the summer months.

A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll found Pappas up 12 points over Sununu among likely voters in the state. The survey also found Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte statistically tied with her Democratic opponent Cinde Warmington.

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Some Republicans are still holding out hope that a strong showing by Ayotte could benefit Sununu. But negative views of Trump may dent Sununu despite his attempts to distance himself from the president.

South Carolina is moving onto this list for the first time.

A New York Times/Siena poll released last week showed a tied race between appointed GOP Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews, a physician.

Graham is running for a full term after her brother, Lindsey, unexpectedly died in July. She had shaky moments in her campaign, notably saying “national security is not my thing” when asked about Taiwan in a debate.

She has not won over key parts of the Republican base. GOP Rep. Ralph Norman, who was on stage during Graham’s debate flub and lost to her in a close primary runoff, revealed to CNN his entire family was not voting for his former opponent and argued she’s not a true conservative. Trump has visited the state twice in the last month as he looked to rally GOP voters to turn out.

Andrews has significantly out-raised Graham in the campaign. And outside spending has poured into the state, each side set to spend about $17 million over the final two weeks in a frantic scramble to reach voters.

The fundamentals of the state are still in Graham’s favor. Trump won the state by 18 points in 2024. But the close nature of the race is giving some Republicans anxiety heading into election night.

Republicans started the cycle with Georgia as a top offensive opportunity, but one day before the election, a GOP win in the Senate race may be off the table.

Sen. Jon Ossoff has run a strong campaign and outpolled GOP Rep. Mike Collins, whom Trump endorsed in the GOP runoff, throughout the contest. Ossoff has also dramatically out-raised and outspent Collins.

The conversation around Ossoff has centered less around if he will be reelected than on whether he’ll decide to pursue higher office in 2028. He has repeatedly rejected talk of a White House run.

Though he’s expected to win on Tuesday, Ossoff’s political clout will still be tested. The Georgia Democrat has worked hard to lift gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms in her race against GOP nominee Rick Jackson, so we’ll be watching to see whether Ossoff’s can help carry her in this competitive contest. (A Bottoms win would put her in a position to fill a Senate vacancy, which matters greatly to Democrats who want Ossoff to run for president.)

There are a number of states we were watching throughout this contest that never fully materialized as actual chess pieces on the battleground board. That includes two races featuring GOP incumbents – Nebraska and Mississippi – and another for a seat held by a retiring Democratic senator in Minnesota.

Maybe they would’ve come online in a more serious way with more money and time, but at this point, flips in these three states would be a big surprise on Tuesday.

在选举前夕，民主党似乎离赢得参议院多数席位近在咫尺，但许多席位都位于深红州，胜负难料，仍有可能倒向任何一方。

民主党的版图扩张速度之快，几乎是年初时无人预料到的，而且几个月来，全国的政治环境似乎都对该党有利。根据CNN的民调平均值，特朗普总统的支持率仅为34%，而选民对经济、伊朗战争和腐败问题的不满，似乎正在推动民主党在全国范围内的发展。

今年，CNN第二次扩大了其榜单以反映这一情况。

这份名单已扩大到11个席位，新增了南卡罗来纳州——这个传统上支持共和党的州在近期的民调中竞争日趋激烈。德克萨斯州和堪萨斯州——这两个在1月份几乎无人预料会成为摇摆州的席位——排名也有所上升。

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“达琳不是林赛”：格雷厄姆家族真的会为共和党失去南卡罗来纳州吗？

民主党人今年需要拿下四个共和党把持的席位，同时保住自己所有的席位，才能赢得参议院多数席位。

共和党人正斥巨资捍卫其在参议院的多数席位，这背后有唐纳德·特朗普总统的政治网络以及科技巨头埃隆·马斯克的支持。根据AdImpact的数据，在中期选举的最后一个月里，共和党在名单上的11场竞选中，广告支出均超过民主党：5.6亿美元对5.21亿美元。如果排除佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州——共和党几乎已经放弃这两个州——双方的差距则更大，约为5.5亿美元对4.69亿美元。

我们对11月最有可能易手的席位排名，是基于CNN的报道，包括与参与参议院竞选的策略师的对话，以及我们对候选人筹款、民调和各州党派环境的分析。最终排名并非预测谁将赢得具体席位或哪个党派将控制美国参议院，而是反映了中期选举竞选季结束时各选区的选情概况。

北卡罗来纳州是周二最有可能易手的参议院席位，民主党人似乎有望赢得自 2008 年以来在该州的首个参议院席位。根据 High Point University/YouGov 的最终民调，该州前州长、民主党人罗伊·库珀在可能投票的选民中领先共和党参议院候选人迈克尔·沃特利 14 个百分点。

在特朗普曾三次获胜的州，没人指望民主党能取得如此大的胜选优势。但共和党人也意识到了这里存在的问题，因此在最后阶段减少了竞选支出。过去两周，民主党花费了1040万美元，而共和党仅花费了250万美元。

CNN民调平均值显示，前参议员谢罗德·布朗以5个百分点的优势领先共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特，支持率为50%对45%。

布朗在2024年竞选连任参议员失败后，迅速开始对哈斯特德进行攻击。哈斯特德是被任命接替副总统万斯空出的参议员席位的。民主党人猛烈抨击哈斯特德在数据中心、爱泼斯坦丑闻和腐败问题上的立场。在最后两周，他们播放次数最多的广告提醒选民，哈斯特德与该州的一起能源丑闻有关。

吉恩·J·普斯卡/美联社/档案照片

Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

同期，共和党投放的重点广告集中攻击布朗在税收和移民问题上的立场。俄亥俄州的参议员竞选是本轮选举中支出第二高的，根据AdImpact的数据，10月份共和党的竞选支出比民主党高出约1.41亿美元，而民主党的支出约为1.02亿美元。

在特朗普时代，俄亥俄州的政治倾向逐渐右倾。为了帮助哈斯特德赢得大选，特朗普在最后一个月三次亲赴俄亥俄州助选。然而，他在这些集会上发表的言论，与其说是关注影响选民的议题，不如说是赞美哈斯特德的身材。

俄亥俄州州长竞选在最后阶段备受关注，共和党州长候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米投放了一则颇具争议的广告，广告中出现了他的民主党对手艾米·阿克顿的疏远母亲。阿克顿在近期的民调中领先于拉马斯瓦米，这进一步表明，周二的选举结果可能有利于民主党获胜。

德克萨斯州已经 32 年没有选出过民主党全州候选人了，CNN 民调汇总显示，詹姆斯·塔拉里科和共和党人肯·帕克斯顿之间的竞选没有明显的领先者。

但各种因素的完美结合可能会使民主党将德克萨斯州变成蓝色的梦想成为现实，尽管该州的红色属性和共和党的巨额支出可能会再次让民主党心碎。

CNN 民调平均值显示，这场竞选没有明显的领先者，但最近几天发布的两项民调——包括《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院的一项民调和 CNN 的另一项民调——显示塔拉里科领先于帕克斯顿，且领先幅度超出误差范围。

上个月 SSRS 进行的 CNN 民调发现，民主党候选人帕克斯顿的负面印象以及该州黑人、拉丁裔和亚裔选民的大力支持，都对这位候选人有利，而这些选民在 2024 年都转向了特朗普。

在强大的筹款支持下，塔拉里科在帕克斯顿击败共和党参议员约翰·科宁后的夏季几个月里占据了广播电视媒体的主导地位。科宁曾警告说，如果这位陷入困境的州检察长成为候选人，那么德克萨斯州的共和党候选人将会遭遇“屠杀”。

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Brandon Bell/Getty Images/文件

据AdImpact数据显示，自初选以来，共和党已投入超过2.78亿美元的广告资金支持帕克斯顿。马斯克——美国政坛公开披露的最大捐款人——一人就贡献了共和党在帕克斯顿竞选中的1.68亿美元，他为帕克斯顿提供的资金超过了其他任何竞选。

共和党对塔拉里科的攻击大多集中在文化问题上，包括批评他过去关于性别和宗教的言论。

根据德克萨斯州州务卿办公室的数据，德克萨斯州以770万张提前投票选票位居全美各州之首。提前投票数据显示，民主党占优势的县投票率较高。拉丁裔选民——这一群体今年表现出逐渐疏远特朗普的迹象——在提前投票中所占比例高于上届选举。

德克萨斯州共和党参议员特德·克鲁兹对提前投票的激增发出警告，他在周五的播客节目中表示：“我们可能会输掉所有全州范围内的选举。”

这里依然是德克萨斯州，美国保守主义的堡垒。特朗普在2024年以两位数的优势赢得了该州，尽管帕克斯顿的候选资格引发了一些不安，但共和党人仍然指望他们的基本盘在选举日踊跃投票。共和党人也在密切关注自由意志主义候选人的选项可能会如何影响选民在选举日的投票决定。

在选举周期之初，缅因州被视为民主党最有希望拿下的州之一。由于格雷厄姆·普拉特纳卷入性骚扰指控并最终退出竞选，这场参议院选举成为本周期中最动荡的选战之一。

选举前一天，CNN民调平均值显示，民主党候选人特洛伊·杰克逊领先共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯4个百分点——50%对46%。

科林斯是唯一一位在卡玛拉·哈里斯2024年赢得的州参选的共和党现任议员。民调也显示，这场选举实际上是对科林斯的一次公投，他正在竞选第六个任期。CNN委托SSRS进行的一项民调发现，在缅因州，支持两位候选人的选民中，约有四分之三表示，他们选择科林斯而非杰克逊是出于对科林斯的信任。

Charly Triballeau/AFP/Getty Images

Robert F. Bukaty/美联社/档案照片

最关键的问题是，科林斯能否扭转本州民众对共和党和特朗普的负面看法。这位参议员一直强调自己独立自主的立场，但民主党人指出，她大多数时候都站在特朗普一边，包括在最后两周的竞选广告中。

共和党团体在全州投放了大量广告，提醒选民柯林斯为该州所做的贡献。在竞选的最后几周，共和党最引人注目的广告对杰克逊进行了政治和人身攻击，称他为“骗子和卑鄙小人”。

由于有关两位丹·沙利文的最新消息可能成为变数，阿拉斯加的排名下降了两位。

共和党人一直担心在 11 月的四人排名选择投票中出现第二个名叫丹·沙利文（Dan Sullivan）的人，他曾是一名教师。但《纽约时报》报道称，民主党人招募了一位与现任参议员丹·沙利文同名的参议员候选人，这给这场竞选带来了新的不确定性。

《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院周日公布的民调显示，民主党前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉和参议员苏利文的支持率不分伯仲，分别为48%和46%，这表明选情可能出现胶着状态。今年8月，在州内全党初选中，佩尔托拉曾以8个百分点的优势领先于现任参议员苏利文。

阿拉斯加的民调历来难以预测。佩尔托拉在10月的前两周筹款额超过了苏利文，并且在最后冲刺阶段手头现金也更多。但在过去两周，共和党在该州的广告投放量略高于民主党。

佩尔托拉否认参与任何涉嫌篡改选票的行为，尽管特朗普建议她退出竞选，而且州和联邦层面的刑事调查也正在进行中。法律专家普遍怀疑，所谓的篡改选票行为是否构成犯罪。

由于阿拉斯加州采用排序复选制投票，其计票时间可能比其他州更长。该州允许在选举日当天或之前盖上邮戳的邮寄选票在10至15天内寄回选举办公室。在选情胶着的情况下，阿拉斯加州的选举结果可能需要数周才能公布。

堪萨斯州排名上升两位，共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔的选情似乎不稳，民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿希望成为自 1994 年以来第一位当选美国参议员的堪萨斯州民主党人。

《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院周日公布的民调显示，汉密尔顿以49%对44%领先罗杰斯，而CNN委托SSRS进行的最新民调则显示，这场竞选没有明显的领先者。CNN的调查发现，大多数可能投票的选民表示，他们更希望共和党控制参议院，但53%的人对马歇尔持负面看法。

包括许多农民和牧场主在内的中西部选民，正感受到高企的柴油价格和特朗普关税政策带来的压力。《纽约时报》一篇关于数百名马歇尔医院前患者因拖欠账单而被起诉，甚至有人被捕的报道，已成为此次选举的焦点。

Mark Schiefelbein/Pool/Getty Images/文件

汉密尔顿是一位卫理公会大型教会的牧师，他试图在这个特朗普以16个百分点优势获胜的州建立一个广泛的联盟。总统周日前往该州，为他的基本盘选民加油鼓劲，共和党人希望这片倾向共和党的土地最终能让民主党人难以逾越。

但民主党人已采取重大举措，力图在最后阶段将该州纳入争夺战。10月份，民主党团体的竞选支出比共和党高出约4570万美元，而共和党的支出为3150万美元。进入最后几周，汉密尔顿的竞选资金为290万美元，而马歇尔的竞选资金仅为81万美元。

爱荷华州继续保持其在共和党参议员乔尼·恩斯特（Joni Ernst）继任者竞选中的地位。

CNN 的民调汇总平均值显示，民主党候选人乔什·图雷克和共和党众议员阿什利·欣森之间的竞争没有明显的领先者，他们的支持率分别为 46% 和 45%。

特朗普在2024年以13个百分点的优势赢得了爱荷华州，该州自2008年以来就未曾选出过民主党参议员。辛森也被证明是本届共和党候选人中最具政治手腕的候选人之一。尽管她曾与总统并肩竞选，但辛森在伊朗战争、关税和牛肉进口等问题上一直努力与总统保持距离。

但这位共和党女议员仍然面临着选民对柴油、化肥和其他农业相关商品价格上涨的担忧。与堪萨斯州一样，民主党在10月份的竞选支出也超过了共和党，差距接近2000万美元。民主党在此期间的一则重点广告将这位共和党女议员与高油价、关税和伊朗战争联系起来，而共和党则投放了一则攻击图雷克移民政策的广告。

如果民主党州长候选人罗布·桑德表现出色，最终图雷克也可能从中受益。

密歇根州的排名下降了两位，新的迹象表明，民主党候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德可能比共和党前众议员迈克·罗杰斯更有优势——尽管在最后几天出现了一项令人震惊的跨党派支持。

周日，民主党众议员海莉·史蒂文斯决定放弃支持埃尔-赛义德，转而支持罗杰斯，这与她所在的党派立场截然不同。此前，埃尔-赛义德和史蒂文斯之间长期存在的紧张关系，在竞选的最后阶段彻底爆发，此前双方经历了一场激烈的党内初选，以及最近一次主要围绕美国对以色列援助问题的新争论。

布莱恩·斯奈德/路透社

距离选举日不到 48 小时，史蒂文斯宣布支持埃尔-赛义德，这凸显了埃尔-赛义德在争取民主党联盟中支持史蒂文斯的部分选民（尤其是黑人和犹太选民）方面所面临的挑战。

但这也导致一些州和全国的民主党人——其中一些人并不喜欢埃尔-赛义德——在周日发表了强有力的声明支持他。据CNN报道，参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默在初选中非正式地支持了史蒂文斯，他指责埃尔-赛义德“卑鄙地背叛”了她。

CNN的民调汇总显示，埃尔-赛义德在密歇根州的支持率领先罗杰斯，为50%比45%。这其中包括《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院的民调，该民调显示埃尔-赛义德领先11个百分点。CNN委托SSRS上个月进行的民调显示，这位进步派候选人正在巩固其在民主党人中的支持，包括赢得了95%的民主党潜在选民的支持。

截至周日，该选举中已有约 150 万张提前投票，接近 2022 年密歇根州中期选举总投票数的一半。

最终，这场选举的胜负可能取决于密歇根州选民对高油价和特朗普对加拿大贸易战下经济形势的看法。在最后两周，民主党重点投放的广告之一聚焦于医疗保健，试图将罗杰斯与制药公司推高医疗成本联系起来。

总统一直努力争取基本盘选民支持罗杰斯，尽管特朗普是2024年参议员竞选的领衔候选人，罗杰斯最终还是落败。但罗杰斯也面临着特朗普第二个任期支持率低迷的困境。根据CNN最新民调，特朗普在潜在选民中的支持率仅为33%。

与夏季几个月相比，民主党众议员克里斯·帕帕斯似乎在与共和党前参议员约翰·苏努努的较量中占据了更稳固的地位。

新罕布什尔大学民调中心的一项民调显示，帕帕斯在该州可能投票的选民中领先苏努努12个百分点。该民调还发现，共和党州长凯莉·阿约特与她的民主党对手辛迪·沃明顿的支持率不相上下。

约瑟夫·普雷齐奥佐/法新社/盖蒂图片社

Sophie Park/Getty Images

一些共和党人仍然抱有希望，认为阿约特的出色表现可能会对苏努努有利。但尽管苏努努试图与特朗普总统保持距离，但外界对特朗普的负面看法仍可能对他造成打击。

南卡罗来纳州首次跻身该榜单。

上周公布的《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院民调显示，共和党参议员候选人达琳·格雷厄姆（Darline Graham）与民主党候选人、医生安妮·安德鲁斯（Annie Andrews）的选情不相上下。

格雷厄姆的哥哥林赛于7月意外去世，因此她决定竞选连任。她的竞选活动并非一帆风顺，尤其是在一次辩论中被问及台湾问题时，她曾表示“国家安全不是我关心的领域”。

她并未赢得共和党核心选民的支持。共和党众议员拉尔夫·诺曼（Ralph Norman）在格雷厄姆辩论失言时也在场，并在初选决胜轮中惜败于她。诺曼向CNN透露，他的全家都不会投票给这位前对手，并认为她并非真正的保守派。特朗普在过去一个月里两次到访该州，试图动员共和党选民积极投票。

安德鲁斯在竞选筹款方面远远超过了格雷厄姆。此外，大量外部资金涌入该州，双方都计划在最后两周内花费约1700万美元，以期获得选民的支持。

该州的基本形势仍然对格雷厄姆有利。特朗普在2024年以18个百分点的优势赢得了该州。但选情胶着让一些共和党人在选举之夜感到焦虑。

共和党人将佐治亚州视为本轮选举的主要进攻目标，但在选举前一天，共和党赢得参议院席位的希望可能已经破灭。

参议员乔恩·奥索夫的竞选活动势头强劲，在整个竞选过程中，他的民调支持率一直高于共和党众议员迈克·柯林斯，而特朗普在共和党初选决选中支持了柯林斯。奥索夫的筹款额和竞选支出也远远超过了柯林斯。

围绕奥索夫的讨论与其说是他能否连任，不如说是他是否会在2028年竞选更高职位。他一再否认会竞选总统。

尽管奥索夫预计会在周二的选举中获胜，但他的政治影响力仍将受到考验。这位佐治亚州民主党人一直努力支持州长候选人凯莎·兰斯·博顿斯对抗共和党候选人里克·杰克逊，因此我们将密切关注奥索夫能否帮助博顿斯在这场竞争激烈的选举中胜出。（博顿斯若胜选，将有机会填补参议院的空缺，这对希望奥索夫竞选总统的民主党人来说至关重要。）

在整个竞选过程中，我们关注的一些州最终并未真正成为战场上的棋子。这其中包括内布拉斯加州和密西西比州两场共和党现任议员的竞选，以及明尼苏达州一位即将退休的民主党参议员的席位之争。

或许如果他们有更多的资金和时间，他们会以更认真的方式进行线上交易，但就目前而言，周二这三个州的房产交易出现翻盘将是一个很大的惊喜。