How would Tehran respond if the US and Israel bomb Iran again?

Iran has retained significant offensive capability, but civilians and critical infrastructure remain largely exposed.

Women ready to fight: a pro-government National Army Day demonstration in Tehran, April 17, 2026 [Majid Saeedi/Getty Images]

Tehran, Iran – Iran’s military is warning that if all-out war breaks out again with the United States and Israel, it will be longer and more costly than their rivals expect.

Iran’s armed forces could deploy new weapons and tactics against the US, Israel and other countries, which would be the third major conflict between the countries since June last year.

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There have been increasing signs that the US and Israel’s war on Iran, which began on February 28, could restart after the US midterm elections. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the war with Iran will end “very soon one way or the other” and Tehran should agree a deal or “the hammer” will come down.

Hossein Kanani Moghaddam, a former senior IRGC commander, told Al Jazeera that despite extensive blows to the Iranian armed forces during US and Israeli strikes earlier this year, they are now in better operational shape compared with previous conflicts.

“In terms of offence, our target database has significantly expanded, the range, accuracy and warheads of our missiles have improved and our drone capabilities have increased,” he said.

New enemy assets were being identified and operations in additional geographical areas were being planned, he added. Arkaminia said that previously undisclosed capabilities and targets would be revealed – and used – if Iran is attacked again.

Commanders from Iran’s General Staff of Armed Forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Islamic Republic of Iran Army are reported to have recently met Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to discuss what steps will be taken if attacked again. The response will be immediate and could go beyond the West Asia region , they said.

The IRGC was “100 percent ready” to confront another attack, spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said on Sunday evening, describing “maximum deterrence” as a goal Iran would reach in the near future.

Army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia said the commanders would rely on “asymmetric warfare” tactics that would compensate for the superiority of US military equipment.

He added that “some weaponry was renovated and new equipment was added along with new tactics” during the brief ceasefire period that came after the June memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US.

Last month, state television showed an underground drone production line. The authorities also showcased an upgraded version of the Arash attack drone and claimed that its warhead had doubled to 100kg with improved guidance.

According to a Reuters investigation published last week, numerous military agencies linked with Iran’s defence establishment have evaded sanctions and funnelled billions into military imports to replenish the IRGC. The imports between January 2025 and June this year from China, Russia and Germany to fuel missile and drone production included rocket propellants, explosives, detonators, titanium and heavy-duty trucks that could be used as launchers.

Many Iranian missile defence systems, radars and other equipment were hit during the war. But Kanani Moghaddam said remaining and newly developed systems were becoming more accurate, pointing to the targeting of a US-built F-35 and other warplanes and drones as successes that can be replicated and expanded upon.

“At sea, we have shown that we can easily target supertankers,” he said regarding transit through the Strait of Hormuz that is deemed “unauthorised” by Iranian authorities. He said Iranian attacks on US Navy vessels in September prompted them to stop venturing into the critical waterway since. But the US has continued its naval blockade on southern Iranian ports, while Iran’s civilian population and infrastructure remain largely exposed if the war resumes.

Tehran and other cities across the country lack shelters or early warning systems to protect civilians. Authorities have not reported any progress regarding the promised shelters and gaps in public warning arrangements.

Iran’s electricity grid, as well as oil and gas facilities, petrochemical and steel manufacturers and roads and railways could also be attacked again, making life even more difficult amid the economic crisis.

‘Intelligence weakness’

During both wars, many senior political and military figures of the Islamic Republic were killed by US and Israeli strikes.

The new supreme leader has not been seen or heard from since replacing his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in early March, ostensibly for security reasons.

This has led to tighter domestic security controls, and prompted some voices from within the establishment to raise concerns and demand accountability for intelligence failures and protection of leadership.

“We have been hit and hit hard,” state-linked analyst Hamzeh Rahim Safavi said during a televised debate on Saturday. “The main cause is intelligence weakness, but no one talks about it or is held accountable”.

The analyst is the son of Yahya Rahim Safavi, a former commander-in-chief of the IRGC who currently serves as a senior military adviser to the supreme leader. The analyst said calls by hardliners to acquire a nuclear bomb would not repair intelligence and security weaknesses.

But Esmaeil Kowsari, a former IRGC division commander now a parliamentary national-security commission member, told local media last week that even though the supreme leader and others were assassinated, “the enemies did not reach their main goals”. He said the goals were to overthrow the Islamic Republic and fragment Iran.

“On the eve of their elections, the Americans are trying to pretend that they have achieved victory by causing a ruckus and launching psychological operations, but that is not the truth,” Kowsari said.

伊朗仍然保留着强大的进攻能力，但平民和关键基础设施仍然很大程度上处于危险之中。

准备战斗的女性：2026年4月17日，德黑兰举行支持政府的国民军日示威游行。[Majid Saeedi/Getty Images]

伊朗德黑兰——伊朗军方警告称，如果与美国和以色列再次爆发全面战争，战争的持续时间和代价将比其对手预期的要长得多。

伊朗武装部队可能对美国、以色列和其他国家部署新的武器和战术，这将是自去年6月以来这些国家之间的第三次重大冲突。

列表 1/3：伊朗和美国在战争威胁加剧的情况下探索外交途径

问题 2（共 3 个）：伊朗战争将如何影响美国中期选举的结果？

列表 3/3：特朗普在最后冲刺的竞选集会上迎合伊斯兰恐惧症和阴谋论

越来越多的迹象表明，美国和以色列于2月28日爆发的对伊战争可能在美国中期选举后重启。唐纳德·特朗普总统周日表示，与伊朗的战争“很快就会以某种方式”结束，德黑兰应该同意达成协议，否则将面临“铁锤”。

伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队前高级指挥官侯赛因·卡纳尼·莫格哈达姆告诉半岛电视台，尽管伊朗武装部队在今年早些时候美国和以色列的空袭中遭受重创，但与以往的冲突相比，他们现在的作战状态更好。

他说：“在进攻方面，我们的目标数据库已大幅扩展，导弹的射程、精度和弹头都得到了提高，我们的无人机能力也得到了增强。”

他还补充说，新的敌方资产已被识别，在更多地理区域的行动也在计划之中。阿尔卡米尼亚表示，如果伊朗再次遭到攻击，此前未公开的能力和目标将被披露并加以利用。

据报道，伊朗武装部队总参谋部、伊斯兰革命卫队和伊朗伊斯兰共和国陆军的指挥官近日会见了最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊，讨论如果再次遭到袭击将采取哪些措施。他们表示，应对措施将立即生效，并且可能超出西亚地区。

伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队发言人侯赛因·莫赫比周日晚间表示，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队已“百分之百准备好”应对另一次袭击，并称“最大威慑”是伊朗在不久的将来将要实现的目标。

陆军发言人穆罕默德·阿克拉米尼亚表示，指挥官们将依靠“非对称战争”战术来弥补美军装备的优势。

他补充说，在伊朗和美国于 6 月签署谅解备忘录后的短暂停火期间，“一些武器得到了翻新，并增加了新装备和新战术”。

上个月，国家电视台播放了一条地下无人机生产线的画面。当局还展示了升级版的“阿拉什”攻击无人机，并声称其弹头重量翻了一番，达到100公斤，制导系统也得到了改进。

路透社上周发布的一项调查显示，与伊朗国防机构有关联的众多军事机构规避制裁，将数十亿美元用于军事进口，以补充伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队的装备。这些进口物资包括火箭推进剂、炸药、雷管、钛合金以及可作为发射车的重型卡车，进口时间从2025年1月至今年6月，来源包括中国、俄罗斯和德国，用于导弹和无人机的生产。

战争期间，伊朗许多导弹防御系统、雷达和其他设备遭到破坏。但卡纳尼·莫格哈达姆表示，剩余的和新开发的系统正变得越来越精准，他指出，成功拦截美国制造的F-35战斗机以及其他战机和无人机就是可以复制和推广的成功案例。

他谈到伊朗当局认为“未经授权”的霍尔木兹海峡通行时表示：“在海上，我们已经证明我们能够轻易地打击超级油轮。” 他说，伊朗9月份对美国海军舰艇的袭击促使美军此后停止进入这条关键水道。但美国仍然继续对伊朗南部港口实施海上封锁，如果战争重燃，伊朗的平民和基础设施仍将面临巨大风险。

德黑兰和全国其他城市缺乏保护平民的避难所或预警系统。当局尚未报告承诺的避难所建设和公共预警机制方面的任何进展。

伊朗的电网、石油和天然气设施、石化和钢铁制造商以及公路和铁路也可能再次遭到袭击，使本已处于经济危机中的伊朗人民生活更加艰难。

“智力缺陷”

在这两场战争期间，伊斯兰共和国的许多高级政治和军事人物被美国和以色列的空袭炸死。

自3月初接替其父阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊以来，这位新任最高领袖一直没有露面或发表过任何言论，表面上的理由是出于安全考虑。

这导致国内安全管控更加严格，也促使一些体制内人士提出担忧，要求追究情报失误和保护领导层的责任。

“我们遭受了重创，”与政府有关联的分析人士哈姆泽·拉希姆·萨法维在周六的电视辩论中表示。“主要原因是情报薄弱，但没有人谈论这个问题，也没有人为此负责。”

这位分析人士是伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队前总司令叶海亚·拉希姆·萨法维之子，后者目前担任最高领袖的高级军事顾问。该分析人士表示，强硬派呼吁获取核武器并不能弥补情报和安全方面的漏洞。

但前伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队师长、现任议会国家安全委员会成员伊斯梅尔·科萨里上周告诉当地媒体，尽管最高领袖和其他人遭到暗杀，“敌人并没有达到他们的主要目标”。他说，敌人的目标是推翻伊斯兰共和国并分裂伊朗。

“在选举前夕，美国人试图通过制造骚乱和开展心理战来假装他们已经取得了胜利，但这并不是事实，”科萨里说。