War, tariffs and China: What the US midterms mean for the Asia-Pacific

Hit hard by Donald Trump’s tariffs and the war on Iran, countries in the Asia-Pacific region want ‘enormous changes’ in US foreign policy.

Xi urges diplomacy on Iran as Oman’s sultan makes historic visit to China

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia – Across the Asia-Pacific region, governments and businesses reeling from the energy shock of the United States and Israel’s war on Iran are watching Tuesday’s US midterm elections closely.

Many want to see “enormous changes” during the rest of President Donald Trump’s term, analysts say, from the war on Iran to his policies on trade and tariffs. But few expect that to happen, even with the Democrats poised to take the House of Representatives, and potentially the Senate, from Trump’s Republican Party.

list 1 of 3 Lobster industry caught in Maine’s political headwinds before US midterms

list 2 of 3 How US oil firms profit $130bn from Iran war as household bills surge

list 3 of 3 How would Tehran respond if the US and Israel bomb Iran again?

“Of course, everybody is watching,” said Steven Okun, a trade specialist and the chief executive of APAC Advisors, a Singapore-based consulting firm. “It’s great political theatre.”

Outside the Middle East, no region has been hit harder by the war on Iran than the Asia-Pacific. Before the start of the conflict in January, the region took in most of the Gulf oil and gas that passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

When Iran closed the chokepoint in response to the US and Israel’s strikes, much of the region was left facing shortages .

The Philippines, which relies on the Gulf for more than 90 percent of its crude oil imports, has been under a national energy emergency since March. Soaring fuel costs have drained the foreign exchange reserves of the region’s poorest economies – Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and East Timor, according to the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS)-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam have also spent heavily on fuel subsidies to shield consumers, it said.

Public opinion in the Asia-Pacific region remains firmly opposed to the war, but Okun said a Democratic-controlled US Congress was unlikely to force Trump to end the eight-month conflict.

“With Iran, I don’t see [a Democrat-controlled Congress] having much change at all, other than the fact that the war will be investigated and there will be oversight hearings,” Okun told Al Jazeera. “We might even see an impeachment of the secretary of defence, but it doesn’t change the overall impact of the war.”

Under the US Constitution, Congress holds the power to formally declare war, but Trump has claimed the attacks on Iran were in self-defence and has so far ignored congressional resolutions directing him to withdraw US forces from hostilities. If a Democrat-controlled Congress passes legislation restricting military operations or cutting funding for them, Trump can veto it. Overriding a veto requires a two-thirds majority in both chambers, which Democrats are almost certain to fall short of.

‘Tariffs don’t change’

On trade and tariffs, too, analysts see little room for Congress to rein in Trump.

The US president rattled global markets last year when he imposed “reciprocal” tariffs of 10 percent to 50 percent on some 90 countries, with the aim of shrinking the US trade deficit. Asia was again hit harder than most. Cambodia faced a 49 percent tariff and Laos 48 percent. Vietnam was slapped with 46 percent and Myanmar 45 percent.

After the Supreme Court struck down those tariffs in February, the Trump administration turned to other tools . In July, it imposed tariffs of 10 percent and 12.5 percent on goods from 60 trading partners, accusing them of failing to stop imports made with forced labour . In Asia, the list includes China, Japan, South Korea and seven Southeast Asian nations – Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

“In some ways, the new Congress is not going to matter to the Asia Pacific because it’s not going to affect trade policy,” Okun said. “Congress cannot change that … Tariffs don’t change. The war doesn’t change.”

Still, some analysts see a narrow opening.

Stephen Olson, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, argued in a recent essay that a “strong rebuke of ‘Trumpism’” at the polls could embolden a pro-free-trade wing of the Republican Party that has been “intimidated into standing down during the Trump presidency”.

That, Olson wrote, offers “a glimmer of hope” for Southeast Asian countries that depend on the US market. A Democratic-controlled Congress, he said, could also push for carve-outs and exceptions that would give the region’s exporters “a modicum of relief”. But any deeper shift in US trade policy, he added, will have to wait for the 2028 presidential election.

Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow for Southeast Asia and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the region’s wish list goes beyond trade to security.

“I think nearly all of Asia would like to see enormous changes, across many domains, during the rest of Trump’s term,” he told Al Jazeera. “But I think much of the region believes this will not happen.”

Besides “more stability” in trade and tariff policy, Asia-Pacific countries “would like to feel more stable in security guarantees from the US,” he said. They would also like a “more clear, obvious US presence” in the South China Sea , where China’s claims overlap with those of five Southeast Asian nations, and in the Taiwan Strait , which separates China from Taiwan , the self-governed island Beijing claims as its territory.

Businesses will also be watching whether a major Republican loss leads to “greater GOP willingness in Congress to stand up to Trump, along with Democrats, on issues important to companies in Asia,” Kurlantzick said, including tariffs, trade policy, arms sales and “overall economic unpredictability”.

One area where analysts do expect some change is US policy on Chinese technology.

The new Congress, whichever party controls it, will pass tougher restrictions on China, said Okun at APAC Advisors.

These include the Remote Access Security Act, which would extend export controls to remote access of US goods, software or technology and the Chip Security Act, which would require companies to verify that advanced artificial intelligence (AI) chips remain in authorised locations, to prevent diversion to foreign adversaries. It also includes the Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls on Hardware Act, known as the MATCH Act, which would press allies to bring their controls on chipmaking equipment in line with Washington’s, to keep advanced chipmaking technology out of China’s hands.

“The next Congress is going to pass them regardless of midterms because both parties agree on them,” Okun said. “The person who is least restrictive now on China is the US president,” he added, referring to Trump’s courting of China’s President Xi Jinping.

The two men have met twice this year as ties have warmed after a bitter and costly trade war last year. To preserve the fragile trade truce, Trump has also held off approving a $14bn package of arms sales to Taiwan, which would be the largest ever for Taipei.

Some analysts meanwhile worry that a lame-duck Trump, hemmed in at home by a Democratic Congress, could turn more forcefully to foreign policy.

“We should not be surprised by continued erratic foreign policy,” said James Guild, an assistant professor at the Indonesian International Islamic University.

“The Democrats have a poor record of effectively opposing and holding Trump accountable using conventional tools of congressional oversight,” Guild said. “We will have to wait and see if they rise to the moment this time.”

受唐纳德·特朗普的关税政策和对伊朗的战争的沉重打击，亚太地区各国希望美国的外交政策发生“巨大变化”。

习近平敦促各方就伊朗问题采取外交手段，与此同时，阿曼苏丹对中国进行历史性访问。

马来西亚吉隆坡——受美国能源危机和以色列对伊朗战争的影响，亚太地区的各国政府和企业都在密切关注周二的美国中期选举。

分析人士表示，许多人希望在特朗普总统剩余的任期内看到“巨大变革”，从伊朗战争到贸易和关税政策，无一例外。但即便民主党有望从特朗普所在的共和党手中夺取众议院，甚至可能拿下参议院，也很少有人认为这些变革会发生。

列表 1/3：美国中期选举前夕，缅因州龙虾产业受政治逆风影响

列表 2/3：美国石油公司如何从伊朗战争中获利 1300 亿美元，而家庭账单却飙升

问题 3（共 3 题）：如果美国和以色列再次轰炸伊朗，德黑兰会作何反应？

“当然，所有人都在关注，”贸易专家、总部位于新加坡的咨询公司亚太顾问公司首席执行官史蒂文·奥昆说。“这是一场精彩的政治闹剧。”

除中东以外，没有哪个地区比亚太地区受伊朗战争的影响更大。在今年1月冲突爆发之前，该地区占据了经由霍尔木兹海峡输送的大部分海湾石油和天然气。

伊朗为回应美国和以色列的袭击而封锁了咽喉要道，导致该地区大部分地区面临物资短缺。

菲律宾90%以上的原油进口依赖海湾地区，自3月以来一直处于国家能源紧急状态。新加坡尤索夫伊萨克东南亚研究所（ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute）指出，飙升的燃油成本已经耗尽了该地区最贫困经济体——柬埔寨、老挝、缅甸和东帝汶——的外汇储备。该研究所还表示，印尼、马来西亚、泰国和越南也投入巨资提供燃油补贴，以保护消费者。

亚太地区的公众舆论仍然坚决反对这场战争，但奥肯表示，民主党控制的美国国会不太可能迫使特朗普结束这场持续八个月的冲突。

奥昆告诉半岛电视台：“就伊朗问题而言，我认为（民主党控制的国会）不会有太大改变，除了会对这场战争进行调查并举行监督听证会之外。我们甚至可能会看到国防部长被弹劾，但这并不会改变这场战争的总体影响。”

根据美国宪法，国会拥有正式宣战的权力，但特朗普声称对伊朗的袭击是出于自卫，并且迄今为止无视国会要求其从敌对行动中撤出美军的决议。如果民主党控制的国会通过限制军事行动或削减军事经费的法案，特朗普可以否决该法案。推翻否决需要参众两院三分之二的多数票，而民主党几乎肯定无法达到这一目标。

“关税不会改变”

在贸易和关税问题上，分析人士也认为国会几乎没有空间来约束特朗普。

去年，美国总统对约90个国家加征10%至50%的“对等”关税，旨在缩小美国贸易逆差，此举震动了全球市场。亚洲再次成为受影响最大的地区。柬埔寨被征收49%的关税，老挝被征收48%。越南被征收46%的关税，缅甸被征收45%。

今年2月，最高法院推翻了这些关税措施后，特朗普政府转而采取其他手段。7月，美国对来自60个贸易伙伴的商品加征10%和12.5%的关税，指责这些国家未能阻止使用强迫劳动生产的商品进口。在亚洲，被列入名单的国家包括中国、日本、韩国以及七个东南亚国家——柬埔寨、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国和越南。

奥昆表示：“在某些方面，新一届国会对亚太地区的影响不大，因为它不会影响贸易政策。国会无法改变这一点……关税不会改变，战争也不会改变。”

不过，一些分析师认为存在一线生机。

尤索夫伊萨克东南亚研究所的访问学者斯蒂芬·奥尔森在最近的一篇文章中指出，在选举中“强烈谴责‘特朗普主义’”可以鼓舞共和党内支持自由贸易的派别，该派别在特朗普执政期间“受到恐吓而退缩”。

奥尔森写道，这为依赖美国市场的东南亚国家带来了一线希望。他表示，民主党掌控的国会也可能推动一些豁免和例外条款，从而为该地区的出口商提供“些许喘息之机”。但他补充说，美国贸易政策的任何更深层次的转变，都必须等到2028年总统大选之后才能实现。

美国外交关系委员会东南亚和南亚高级研究员约书亚·库兰茨克表示，该地区的愿望清单不仅限于贸易，还包括安全。

“我认为几乎整个亚洲都希望在特朗普剩余的任期内，在诸多领域看到巨大的变革，”他告诉半岛电视台。“但我认为该地区的大多数人认为这不会发生。”

他表示，除了贸易和关税政策的“更大稳定性”外，亚太国家“希望从美国获得更稳定的安全保障”。他们还希望美国在南海（中国的主权声索与五个东南亚国家的主权声索重叠）和台湾海峡（中国与台湾之间的海峡，北京声称台湾是其领土）展现“更清晰、更明显的存在”。

库兰茨克表示，企业还将关注共和党的重大失败是否会导致“国会中的共和党人更愿意与民主党人一起，在对亚洲企业至关重要的问题上对抗特朗普”，这些问题包括关税、贸易政策、武器销售和“整体经济的不确定性”。

分析人士预计，美国对中国技术的政策可能会有所改变。

亚太顾问公司 (APAC Advisors) 的奥昆表示，无论哪个政党控制新一届国会，都将通过对中国更严格的限制措施。

这些法案包括《远程访问安全法案》，该法案将出口管制范围扩大到对美国商品、软件或技术的远程访问；以及《芯片安全法案》，该法案要求企业核实先进的人工智能（AI）芯片是否存放在授权地点，以防止其被转移至外国敌对势力。此外，还包括《硬件技术控制多边协调法案》（简称MATCH法案），该法案将敦促盟国使其对芯片制造设备的管制与华盛顿的管制保持一致，以防止先进芯片制造技术落入中国之手。

奥昆表示：“无论中期选举结果如何，下届国会都会通过这些法案，因为两党都同意这些法案。” 他补充道：“目前对华限制最少的人是美国总统”，指的是特朗普对中国国家主席习近平的示好。

今年以来，随着去年一场代价惨重的贸易战后两国关系回暖，两人已会晤两次。为了维护脆弱的贸易休战局面，特朗普还暂缓批准一项价值140亿美元的对台军售计划，这将是台北有史以来获得的最大一笔军售。

与此同时，一些分析人士担心，即将卸任的特朗普在国内受到民主党控制的国会掣肘，可能会更加积极地推行外交政策。

“我们不应该对持续反复无常的外交政策感到惊讶，”印尼国际伊斯兰大学助理教授詹姆斯·吉尔德说。

吉尔德表示：“民主党人在有效反对特朗普和追究其责任方面，运用国会常规监督手段方面记录不佳。我们拭目以待，看看他们这次能否挺身而出。”