Russian drone attacks turn the Black Sea into the world’s deadliest waterway

Bulgarian Interior Ministry/Handout/Reuters

Russian drones have struck at least a dozen merchant ships in the Black Sea in recent weeks – killing more mariners than have died during the Iran war.

Russia’s goal is to throttle trade through Ukrainian ports, which export almost all the country’s grain. But some attacks have occurred close to or inside the territorial waters of two NATO states: Romania and Bulgaria.

The Russian campaign follows months of Ukrainian strikes on ships using Russian ports in the Black Sea and adjoining Sea of Azov – and has accelerated over the past month.

On several occasions, according to shipping and security sources, Russia has combined maritime and aerial drones. It has begun using recently developed jet-powered drones, which are faster and more difficult to intercept, as well as drones capable of hitting moving targets.

Altogether, at least 30 mariners have been killed or are missing in the recent surge of attacks, according to maritime tracking services and the governments of Romania and Bulgaria.

In the most recent strike, three drones struck a container ship last week as it approached a Romanian port. A French surveillance plane filmed a surface drone zeroing in on the vessel – the Contship Jet – and later video showed the ship listing heavily before sinking.

When hit, the vessel was just 25 kilometers (15 miles) from the Bulgarian coast.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha has said that the uptick in attacks is “turning the Black Sea into a zone of danger for civilian shipping.”

Russia increased missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea ports, particularly Odesa, over the summer. Ukraine exported 1.09 million tons of wheat in September, half the 2.05 million tons a year earlier, according to government figures.

The Ukrainians tried to divert exports to smaller ports on the Danube River – which borders Romania – and Russian drones followed.

Romanian Ministry For Internal Affairs/AP

The surge in attacks began in early October, when the Turkish-owned Alfa Watan, heading from Egypt to the Romanian port of Sulina, was struck by air and naval drones. Nine Syrian crew members and one Egyptian died, and the ship sank.

Six days later, 11 of the crew on the HS Dignity – most of them Syrian – died when the ship was struck off the Bulgarian coast at night.

A Syrian seafarers’ activist, Mohammad Hajjouz, told CNN that after the first strike on the Dignity, the crew saw an unmanned surface vessel approaching, which then struck the ship.

Unable to fully launch the lifeboats, crew members jumped in the water.

“They began calling out to one another and trying to regroup, but the sea was rough and the water was extremely cold, causing crew members to drift apart,” Hajjouz said.

Despite the growing danger, some shipping firms are still working in the Black Sea.

Hristo Rusev/Getty Images

“Economic hardship pushes sailors to accept work in dangerous areas. They are sometimes enticed by offers of additional pay,” Hajjouz said. “Others are compelled to work in these areas due to limited employment opportunities.”

On October 15, four more merchant ships were targeted, “including in Romanian territorial waters and its economic exclusive zone, and eight lives were lost,” according to Romanian Foreign Minister Oana-Silvia Toiu.

Two chemical tankers – Wine Trader and Yara J – caught fire after being hit close to the Sulina Canal that leads from the Black Sea into the Danube.

Six Beninese and one Russian national on the Wine Trader, which was hit by three drones according to its operator, were killed.

“Russian forces are striking vessels linked to Ukrainian trade, now inside the (exclusive economic zones) of two NATO member states,” according to maritime analysts at Ambrey, a shipping intelligence firm

“Romanian and Bulgarian waters should no longer be treated as safe by default,” Ambrey added, saying several vessels were very likely targeted due to their Ukrainian grain export links.

Nikolay Dychinov/AFP/Getty Images

Moscow has not acknowledged all the attacks, but in several instances the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that targeted vessels were carrying “military and dual-use cargo” for the Ukrainian armed forces.

The European response has been fragmented. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the alliance has “already strengthened our posture along the eastern flank,” as Russian attacks encroach on the alliance’s borders.

The Bulgarian government, which has relatively good relations with Moscow, has been reluctant to blame Russia, but there are now signs that it and Romania are mobilizing defenses.

Bulgaria has asked NATO to deploy combat aircraft and anti-drone systems to bolster its defenses, according to Defense Minister Dimitar Stoyanov, who also expects Bulgaria to join a NATO anti-drone initiative.

The Romanians have begun deploying patrols of F-16 jets along the coast. One of them shot down two ⁠of the latest generation of Russian drones over Romanian territorial waters in late October.

Romanian Ministry of Defense/AP

Romania has also said it will accelerate the ⁠development of surveillance ‌capabilities and equipment to counter mines and drones in the Black Sea.

But the moves have not done enough to reassure shippers. Traffic visiting Ukrainian ports has fallen sharply, while insurance rates have spiked.

Last month, the Joint War Committee, which assesses risk for the London insurance market, extended the areas defined as “high-risk” to include the whole of the Black Sea region, excluding the territorial waters of Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria and Georgia.

Higher premiums are bad news for Ukraine’s vital agriculture exports, 90% of which transit the waterway. Ukraine supplies about 15% of global maize exports and 10% of wheat, and is the world’s top exporter of sunflower oil.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul has described the Black Sea as vital for global food security. But Russia “has put freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, and with it a lifeline for so many people, in its crosshairs,” he said last month.

For its part, the Trump administration has blamed both sides for the shipping attacks.

“We have American companies calling us and saying, ‘Hey, that was our oil on that ship that was hit by Ukraine,’” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last month.

“Now, I don’t believe Ukraine intentionally targeted them, but those ships got hit,” he added.

NATO and the Black Sea states must “develop anti-drone defenses, and the Alliance should beef up its presence in Romanian and Bulgarian airspace and on land,” according to Dimitar Bechev, director of the Dahrendorf Programme at St Antony’s College at Oxford.

Nikolay Doychinov/AFP/Getty Images

“At sea, Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria could do more to enforce freedom of navigation,” Bechev told CNN.

Ukraine and Russia are punishing each other without gaining any kind of lasting advantage, according to David Axe, author of the Trench Art blog on the conflict in Ukraine.

That has left much of the Black Sea very perilous for commercial vessels.

CNN’s Kosta Gak contributed reporting to this story.

保加利亚内政部/供稿/路透社

最近几周，俄罗斯无人机在黑海袭击了至少十几艘商船，造成海员死亡人数超过了伊朗战争期间死亡的人数。

俄罗斯的目标是切断经由乌克兰港口的贸易，这些港口出口了该国几乎所有的粮食。但一些袭击事件发生在两个北约国家——罗马尼亚和保加利亚——的领海附近或领海内。

俄罗斯的军事行动是在乌克兰对使用黑海和邻近的亚速海俄罗斯港口的船只进行数月袭击之后发起的，并且在过去一个月里愈演愈烈。

据航运和安全部门消息人士透露，俄罗斯曾多次将海上无人机和空中无人机结合使用。它已开始使用近期研发的喷气式无人机，这种无人机速度更快、更难拦截，此外还使用了能够打击移动目标的无人机。

据海事追踪服务机构以及罗马尼亚和保加利亚政府称，在最近这波袭击事件中，至少有 30 名海员丧生或失踪。

在最近一次无人机袭击中，三架无人机上周击中了一艘驶近罗马尼亚港口的集装箱船。一架法国侦察机拍摄到一架水面无人机锁定这艘名为“康特希普喷气号”（Contship Jet）的货轮，随后的视频显示，该船严重倾斜后沉没。

被击中时，这艘船距离保加利亚海岸仅 25 公里（15 英里）。

乌克兰外交部长安德烈·西比哈表示，袭击事件的增加“正在将黑海变成民用航运的危险区域”。

今年夏季，俄罗斯加大了对乌克兰黑海港口，特别是敖德萨港的导弹和无人机袭击力度。据乌克兰政府数据显示，9月份乌克兰小麦出口量为109万吨，仅为去年同期205万吨的一半。

乌克兰人试图将出口货物转移到多瑙河沿岸与罗马尼亚接壤的较小港口，俄罗斯无人机随后也加入了行动。

罗马尼亚内政部/美联社

袭击事件激增始于10月初，当时土耳其所有的“阿尔法·瓦坦”号货轮从埃及驶往罗马尼亚苏利纳港，遭到空中和海上无人机的袭击。船上9名叙利亚船员和1名埃及船员丧生，货轮沉没。

六天后，HS Dignity 号货轮在保加利亚海岸附近夜间遭到袭击，船上 11 名船员（其中大部分是叙利亚人）丧生。

叙利亚海员维权人士穆罕默德·哈朱兹告诉 CNN，在“尊严号”遭到第一次袭击后，船员们看到一艘无人水面舰艇靠近，然后该舰艇击中了“尊严号”。

由于救生艇无法完全放下，船员们跳入水中。

“他们开始互相呼喊，试图重新集结，但海面波涛汹涌，海水极其寒冷，导致船员们分散开来，”哈朱兹说。

尽管危险日益加剧，一些航运公司仍在黑海开展业务。

Hristo Rusev/Getty Images

“经济困难迫使水手们接受在危险区域的工作。有时，额外的报酬会诱惑他们，”哈朱兹说。“还有一些人则是因为就业机会有限而被迫到这些区域工作。”

10 月 15 日，又有四艘商船成为袭击目标，“其中包括在罗马尼亚领海和专属经济区内的船只，造成八人丧生”，罗马尼亚外交部长奥娜-西尔维娅·托尤表示。

两艘化学品油轮——“葡萄酒贸易商”号和“雅拉 J”号——在靠近连接黑海和多瑙河的苏利纳运河附近被击中后起火。

据“葡萄酒贸易商”号的运营方称，该船遭到三架无人机袭击，船上六名贝宁人和一名俄罗斯人丧生。

据航运情报公司Ambrey的海事分析师称，“俄罗斯军队正在袭击与乌克兰贸易有关的船只，这些船只目前位于两个北约成员国的专属经济区内。”

“不应再默认罗马尼亚和保加利亚水域是安全的，”安布雷补充道，并表示一些船只很可能因为与乌克兰粮食出口有关联而成为袭击目标。

尼古拉·迪奇诺夫/法新社/盖蒂图片社

莫斯科并未承认所有袭击事件，但在一些情况下，俄罗斯国防部声称，被袭击的船只运载着乌克兰武装部队的“军用和两用货物”。

欧洲的应对措施较为分散。北约秘书长马克·吕特表示，随着俄罗斯的袭击不断逼近北约边界，北约“已经加强了东翼的部署”。

与莫斯科关系相对良好的保加利亚政府一直不愿指责俄罗斯，但现在有迹象表明，保加利亚和罗马尼亚正在调动防御力量。

据保加利亚国防部长迪米塔尔·斯托亚诺夫称，保加利亚已请求北约部署作战飞机和反无人机系统以加强其防御，他还希望保加利亚加入北约的反无人机倡议。

罗马尼亚已开始沿海岸线部署F-16战斗机巡逻。10月下旬，其中一架F-16战斗机在罗马尼亚领海击落了两架俄罗斯最新一代无人机。

罗马尼亚国防部/美联社

罗马尼亚还表示，将加快研发监视能力和设备，以应对黑海地区的水雷和无人机威胁。

但这些措施并不足以让货主安心。到访乌克兰港口的货物吞吐量大幅下降，而保险费率却飙升。

上个月，负责评估伦敦保险市场风险的联合战争委员会扩大了“高风险”区域的定义范围，将整个黑海地区纳入其中，但不包括土耳其、罗马尼亚、保加利亚和格鲁吉亚的领海。

更高的溢价对乌克兰至关重要的农产品出口来说是个坏消息，因为乌克兰90%的农产品出口都要经过这条水道。乌克兰供应全球约15%的玉米和10%的小麦，并且是世界上最大的葵花籽油出口国。

德国外交部长约翰·瓦德普尔曾表示，黑海对全球粮食安全至关重要。但他上个月指出，俄罗斯“已将黑海的航行自由，以及这条维系众多人民生命线的纽带，置于其攻击目标之下”。

特朗普政府则将航运袭击事件归咎于交战双方。

“一些美国公司打电话给我们说，‘嘿，被乌克兰击中的那艘船上的石油是我们的，’”美国国务卿马可·卢比奥上个月说。

“现在，我不认为乌克兰是故意袭击它们的，但那些船只确实遭到了袭击，”他补充道。

牛津大学圣安东尼学院达伦多夫项目主任迪米塔尔·贝切夫表示，北约和黑海沿岸国家必须“发展反无人机防御系统，北约应该加强在罗马尼亚和保加利亚领空以及陆地上的存在”。

尼古拉·多伊奇诺夫/法新社/盖蒂图片社

“在海上，土耳其、罗马尼亚和保加利亚可以采取更多措施来维护航行自由，”贝切夫告诉 CNN。

据关注乌克兰冲突的“战壕艺术”博客作者大卫·阿克斯称，乌克兰和俄罗斯正在互相惩罚，但双方都没有获得任何持久的优势。

这使得黑海大部分海域对商船来说非常危险。

CNN记者科斯塔·加克对本文亦有贡献。