Exit polls have become the CNN Voter Poll. Here’s what that means

Eric Lee/Reuters/File

CNN’s Election Night coverage has for decades featured the results of surveys, known as exit polls that aim to explain how and why voters made their decisions. This year, those surveys are changing and they have a new name.

The CNN Voter Poll incorporates traditional in-person exit polling techniques alongside a robust, large-sample nationwide survey fielded before Election Day. The two sample sources combined will yield an in-depth look at the electorate nationally as well as in the 45 states holding US Senate or governor elections this midterm.

The earliest results from the Voter Poll will be reported after 5 p.m. ET on Election Day. Data that could characterize the outcome of a race is not reported until after the polls have closed. And as in the past, the results of the survey will change throughout the night as additional interviews are conducted and, later on, as the data is adjusted to reflect the results of the election.

The Voter Poll is based on interviews with roughly 100,000 voters and is conducted by SSRS on behalf of CNN and other major news organizations, including ABC, the Associated Press, CBS, Fox News, MS NOW and NBC.

Like the exit polls that CNN has relied on in the past, the Voter Poll helps us better understand who came out to vote, how different groups of people voted and how they feel about some of the biggest issues of the campaign.

It incorporates several different survey techniques to represent voters regardless of how or when they choose to cast their ballots.

Nearly 80,000 voters participated in the pre-election survey, which was conducted between October 19 and November 3. These voters came from several sources. Some were chosen randomly from a list of registered voters across the country, and were contacted by postcard, telephone, text message or email and invited to take the survey. Others came from online panels of people who are signed up to take surveys through SSRS or Verasight, but were also matched back to the same voter file.

Since all survey participants were connected back to the voter file, researchers conducting the poll have the same basic information about whether they’ve voted in the past as well as demographic and political traits for all people who took the poll. They can use that information to assess how likely each respondent is to actually turn out to vote and to ensure the surveys are representative through a process called weighting.

Those voters who participated in the survey but were not verified as having cast a ballot before Election Day are then recontacted on Election Day or just before to confirm that they did indeed cast a ballot and to check whether their vote choice remains the same.

In 15 states with highly competitive races, those pre-election interviews are then combined with Election Day exit polls conducted in-person, by distributing paper questionnaires to a randomly selected set of voters chosen from voting locations around each state. The polling locations were themselves selected through random sampling, meaning the resulting interviews should be representative of Election Day voters across the state. Roughly 22,000 voters are expected to be interviewed this way.

Respondents to both pre-election and Election Day surveys were able to complete the poll in either English or Spanish. Results for the full national sample have a margin of error of plus or minus 0.6 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups and in individual states. More details on the methodology of the Voter Poll are available here .

Eric Lee/路透社/档案照片

几十年来，CNN的选举之夜报道都会刊登一些调查结果，这些调查被称为出口民调，旨在解释选民做出决定的方式和原因。今年，这些调查有所改变，并有了一个新的名称。

CNN选民民调结合了传统的现场出口民调方法，以及在选举日之前进行的大规模全国性调查。这两种样本来源相结合，将能够深入了解全国选民以及即将举行中期选举的45个州（包括参议院和州长选举）的选民情况。

选民民调的最早结果将于选举日美国东部时间下午5点后公布。能够反映选举结果的数据要等到投票结束后才会公布。与以往一样，随着后续访谈的进行，以及之后数据根据选举结果进行调整，民调结果会在当晚不断变化。

选民民意调查基于对大约 10 万名选民的采访，由 SSRS 代表 CNN 和其他主要新闻机构（包括 ABC、美联社、CBS、福克斯新闻、MS NOW 和 NBC）进行。

与 CNN 过去依赖的出口民调一样，选民民调帮助我们更好地了解谁出来投票了，不同群体的人们是如何投票的，以及他们对竞选中一些最大问题的看法。

它采用了多种不同的调查技术，以代表选民，无论他们选择以何种方式或何时投票。

近8万名选民参与了此次选前调查，调查时间为10月19日至11月3日。这些选民来自多个渠道。部分选民是从全国已登记选民名单中随机抽取的，并通过明信片、电话、短信或电子邮件联系他们，邀请他们参与调查。其他选民则来自SSRS或Verasight等在线调查平台，这些平台的用户已注册参与调查，但这些选民也与上述选民名单进行了匹配。

由于所有调查参与者都与选民档案关联，因此进行民意调查的研究人员掌握了所有受访者的基本信息，包括他们过去的投票记录、人口统计特征和政治倾向。他们可以利用这些信息评估每位受访者实际投票的可能性，并通过加权过程确保调查结果具有代表性。

那些参与调查但尚未被核实是否在选举日之前投过票的选民，将在选举日当天或之前再次被联系，以确认他们是否确实投过票，并核实他们的投票选择是否保持不变。

在15个选情激烈的州，选前访谈数据将与选举日当天进行的出口民调相结合。出口民调通过向各州各投票站随机抽取的选民发放纸质问卷的方式进行。投票站本身也是通过随机抽样选取的，这意味着最终的访谈结果应该能够代表全州选举日当天的选民。预计将有大约22,000名选民接受这种形式的访谈。

选民在选前调查和选举日调查中均可选择使用英语或西班牙语完成问卷。全国样本的误差幅度为正负0.6个百分点；子群体和各州的误差幅度更大。有关选民民意调查方法的更多详情，请点击此处。