Vance tosses Trump under the bus in a bid to keep 2028 hope alive

Vice President JD Vance on Wednesday surveyed the wreckage of the MAGA coalition and spilled his thoughts in an extraordinary social media post that launched the 2028 presidential campaign.

President Donald Trump, meanwhile, relished what Interior Secretary Doug Burgum called “a day of celebration.” In his half-built White House ballroom, he watched the last beam rise to the roof like a sports team’s championship banner.

This bizarre contrast marked a turning point in the Trump era.

The president seemed unaware or indifferent that his fixation on a vanity project epitomized the apparent disregard for Americans’ cost-of-living pain that doomed the GOP in midterm elections. Oddly, as he chatted with reporters, he didn’t seem crestfallen over his party’s epic defeat. Instead, he seemed liberated — able to fully devote himself to constructing a physical legacy.

“Envision chandeliers all over here soon. Envision marble floor. Oh, it’s going to be beautiful. This will be the most beautiful building,” the president said.

Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

As Trump pondered yet more gold fittings, Vance was agonizing about a more onerous assignment — how to pull the Republican Party out of the debacle of losing the House and the Senate. The vice president now faces his own construction project: a new electoral coalition that could also salvage his own presidential dreams.

Vance’s frank social media post, which contained multiple not-so-veiled criticisms of his boss’s presidency and second-term strategy, was a remarkable move for a vice president hours just after a devastating White House defeat.

Vance’s post came across as an early pitch to be the first among equals of GOP leaders charting a new path. In that sense, it was an act of political calculation. But is it a sound one? It’s been just two weeks since Vance’s wobbly judgment was exposed by his embrace of a vile attack ad that seemed only to backfire on Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.

Vance wrote, with evident understatement, that he shared the view of one GOP pollster that “our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch” — a period when Trump was citing a “golden age” while gasoline and diesel prices soared. He also sought distance from the president on two defining aspects of his term: the Iran war and the aggressive purge of undocumented migrants.

“The reason we lost is the war,” he wrote, adding, “I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement —by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance.” Vance sought some political protection on the latter point, setting up a straw man by implying the only alternative would be “amnesty” pushed by “gaslighting” establishment politicians.

The vice president revealed that he’d asked an unnamed pollster, “one of the smartest people I know in politics,” what would convince disaffected Trump/Vance voters to return. He came up with a list:

2) Focus on cost of living/inflation

3) Put America First

4) Change our relationship to Israel.”

Vance also notably defended Fox News host Rachel Campos-Duffy’s calls for a diplomatic end to the Iran war. Since Trump is widely reported to be considering new strikes, this also signaled a potential breach with the president.

Nathan Howard/Pool/AFP/Getty Images

Vance was careful to note when he cited the war as the reason for Republican losses that “the president said so last night.” He has not publicly broken with Trump over the conflict, and he led the negotiating team that produced an MOU with Tehran to end it over the summer — which fizzled on contact with reality.

But there is nuance here that suggests Vance and Trump’s positions are not compatible. The president is now talking about the war’s impact on the midterms almost wistfully, portraying himself as a leader who knowingly made a political sacrifice and paid the price, via high gas prices, to do what had to be done. “I would have done nothing different,” he said Wednesday.

Vance’s commentary, however, leaves open an interpretation that the war was a mistake from the start and has exerted a heavy political price. “If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so,” he wrote. “Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.”

Trump avoided an appearance of disagreement with his vice president by telling reporters on the tour that Vance was “probably right” about the war’s impact because it “drove the gasoline up a little bit short term.”

The vice president then sought to defuse any sense of a rift by posting video of Trump saying he thought the statement was “good” during his ballroom tour.

Vance’s position on the war has long caused intrigue because it muddles his previously expressed skepticism of foreign military interventions, which was distilled from his Iraq war service. But by including “America First” and the need to change the US-Israel relationship in his four points, he also seemed to be reaching out to the isolationist Tucker Carlson wing of what’s left of the MAGA coalition, which may play an important role in the 2028 Democratic primary.

Whatever Vance’s intentions, it’s questionable after Tuesday’s GOP wipe-out whether anyone associated with the unpopular Iran war — and this includes Secretary of State Marco Rubio — would be able to explain it away on the 2028 campaign trail.

Vance already has to account for several cycles of political reinvention. And even before the Ramaswamy storm last month, his political dexterity was in doubt. After all, he has only run one major political campaign in his own right — for Ohio Senate in 2022. In that race, he greatly benefited from an endorsement by Trump, who forgave the “Hillbilly Elegy” author for his vehement criticisms in the 2016 presidential campaign.

Vance is not alone in beginning maneuvering for 2028.

Mark Schiefelbein/AP

Ron DeSantis, who lost in the 2024 GOP primary to Trump, is up with his own straight talk. As is the case with Vance and Rubio, everything the outgoing Florida governor says is now refracted through a 2028 lens. “It’s very unlikely Republicans will recapture the Congress in 2028. Might not have a shot at Senate control until 2032,” DeSantis wrote on X.

And DeSantis told reporters that Tuesday’s losses were “close to an extinction level event for Republicans in many parts of the country as we have seen probably in the last 100 years.” He added that the damage could reverberate for the next decade or more. “If the Republican Party doesn’t have Texas as an anchor then we are not going to be viable nationally going forward,” he said.

The Florida governor’s remarks seem to serve the same purpose as Vance’s: as a claim to future GOP leadership. There were made from a red state that mostly repelled the blue Democratic wave on Tuesday night and that DeSantis has long used as a petri dish for a post-Trump Republican Party.

Pundits were joking on Tuesday that the 2028 presidential campaign would start Wednesday morning.

JD Vance just made it a reality.

周三，副总统 JD Vance 审视了 MAGA 联盟的残局，并在社交媒体上发表了一篇非同寻常的帖子，表达了他的想法，从而启动了 2028 年总统竞选。

与此同时，唐纳德·特朗普总统则沉浸在内政部长道格·伯古姆所说的“庆祝之日”的喜悦中。在他那尚未完工的白宫宴会厅里，他看着最后一根横梁像体育队的冠军旗帜一样升到屋顶。

这种奇特的对比标志着特朗普时代的一个转折点。

总统似乎并未意识到，或者说漠不关心，他对一个面子工程的执着，恰恰体现了他对美国民众生活成本高昂带来的痛苦漠不关心，而这正是共和党在中期选举中惨败的根源。奇怪的是，当他与记者交谈时，他似乎并没有因为本党的惨败而垂头丧气。相反，他看起来如释重负——能够全身心地投入到打造一项有形的政治遗产中。

“想象一下，这里很快就会挂满枝形吊灯，铺上大理石地板。哦，那将会非常漂亮。这将是最美丽的建筑，”总统说道。

Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

当特朗普还在琢磨着添置更多金饰时，万斯却在为一项更为艰巨的任务而苦恼——如何带领共和党走出失去众议院和参议院控制权的困境。这位副总统如今面临着自己的重建工程：组建一个新的选举联盟，这或许也能挽救他自己的总统梦。

就在白宫遭遇惨败几个小时后，副总统万斯在社交媒体上发表了一篇坦率的帖子，其中包含了对他老板的总统任期和第二任期策略的多项毫不掩饰的批评，这无疑是一个惊人的举动。

万斯的这番言论似乎是在积极争取成为共和党领袖中引领新方向的领军人物。从这个意义上讲，这是一种政治算计。但这算计明智吗？仅仅两周前，万斯摇摆不定的判断力就暴露无遗，他支持了一则恶毒的攻击性广告，结果却适得其反，对俄亥俄州州长候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米造成了不利影响。

万斯在信中以明显轻描淡写的语气写道，他赞同一位共和党民调专家的观点，即“我们在竞选后期的经济信息传递不够有力”——当时特朗普正大谈“黄金时代”，而汽油和柴油价格却飙升。他还试图在总统任期内的两个关键问题上与他划清界限：伊朗战争和对非法移民的强力清洗。

“我们战败的原因在于战争，”他写道，并补充说，“我赞同我们应该改变执法方式——例如，更加关注雇用非法劳工的企业。” 范斯试图在后一点上寻求政治庇护，他树立了一个稻草人，暗示唯一的替代方案是“大赦”，而大赦是由那些“操纵舆论”的建制派政客推动的。

副总统透露，他曾询问一位不愿透露姓名的民调专家——“我认识的政治界最聪明的人之一”——如何才能说服那些对特朗普/万斯政策不满的选民重新支持他。这位专家列出了一份清单：

2）关注生活成本/通货膨胀

3）美国优先

4）改变我们与以色列的关系。”

值得注意的是，万斯还为福克斯新闻主持人雷切尔·坎波斯-达菲呼吁通过外交途径结束伊朗战争的言论辩护。由于有广泛报道称特朗普正在考虑发动新的打击，这也预示着他与总统之间可能出现裂痕。

Nathan Howard/Pool/AFP/Getty Images

万斯在提及战争是共和党败选的原因时，特意强调“总统昨晚是这么说的”。他并未公开与特朗普就这场冲突决裂，而且他领导的谈判团队曾在夏季与德黑兰签署了一份旨在结束战争的谅解备忘录——但这份备忘录在现实面前最终无疾而终。

但其中的细微差别表明，万斯和特朗普的立场并不相符。总统现在谈及这场战争对中期选举的影响时，语气近乎伤感，将自己描绘成一位明知要做出政治牺牲，并为此付出高油价代价的领导人。“我不会改变我的选择，”他周三说道。

然而，范斯的评论却留下了一种解读空间，即这场战争从一开始就是个错误，并付出了沉重的政治代价。“如果你想论证这场战争是值得的，认为失去接下来六年的参议院控制权是值得的，那就这么说吧，”他写道。“论证这是值得付出的代价。同意也好，不同意也罢，至少这很诚实。但每个人都知道我们为什么战败。任何关于我们未来走向的坦诚对话都必须从这里开始。”

为了避免与副总统意见相左，特朗普在巡视期间告诉记者，万斯关于战争影响的说法“可能是正确的”，因为战争“短期内确实推高了汽油价格”。

随后，副总统发布了一段视频，视频中特朗普在舞厅巡视期间表示，他认为该声明“很好”，以此来消除任何不和的迹象。

范斯在战争问题上的立场长期以来一直令人费解，因为它与他此前表达的对外国军事干预的怀疑态度（这种怀疑源于他在伊拉克战争中的服役经历）相矛盾。但通过在其四点纲领中纳入“美国优先”以及改变美以关系的必要性，他似乎也在向“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）联盟残余势力中奉行孤立主义的塔克·卡尔森派系示好，而这部分势力可能在2028年民主党总统初选中扮演重要角色。

无论万斯的意图如何，在周二共和党惨败之后，任何与不得人心的伊朗战争有关的人——包括国务卿马可·卢比奥——能否在2028年的竞选活动中对此做出解释，都令人质疑。

万斯已经经历了数轮政治转型。即便在上个月拉马斯瓦米事件之前，他的政治手腕也一直备受质疑。毕竟，他只独立运作过一次大型政治竞选——2022年竞选俄亥俄州参议员。在那场竞选中，他得益于特朗普的背书，特朗普原谅了这位《乡下人的挽歌》作者在2016年总统竞选期间的激烈批评。

范斯并非唯一一个开始为2028年做准备的人。

马克·谢费尔贝因/美联社

在2024年共和党总统候选人初选中败给特朗普的罗恩·德桑蒂斯，如今也开始发表直言不讳的言论。与万斯和卢比奥一样，这位即将卸任的佛罗里达州州长如今的每一句话都被置于2028年的背景下解读。“共和党在2028年重新夺回国会控制权的可能性微乎其微。或许要到2032年才有机会掌控参议院，”德桑蒂斯在X网站上写道。

德桑蒂斯告诉记者，周二的失利“对共和党在全国许多地区来说，几乎等同于灭亡，这种情况可能近百年来都未曾出现过”。他补充说，这种损害的影响可能会持续十年甚至更久。“如果共和党失去了德克萨斯州这个支柱，那么我们未来在全国范围内将难以生存下去，”他说。

佛罗里达州州长的言论似乎与万斯的言论目的相同：都是为了争夺共和党未来的领导权。这些言论是在一个传统上支持共和党的州发表的，该州在周二晚上的选举中基本抵挡住了民主党的蓝色浪潮，而德桑蒂斯长期以来一直将佛罗里达州视为后特朗普时代共和党的试验田。

周二，评论员们开玩笑说，2028 年总统竞选活动将于周三早上开始。

JD Vance 让这一切成为了现实。