Won rally clouds earnings outlook for automakers, chipmakers

A sharp rise in the won is clouding the earnings outlook for automakers and chipmakers in South Korea, according to market analysts Tuesday. A stronger currency can ease import costs, but the speed of the won’s rise is raising concern for exporters with limited time to adjust. The won-dollar rate fell 8.09 percent in July and another 3.89 percent in August, then closed Tuesday at 1,345.6 won per dollar.

The Bank of Korea said the won-dollar exchange rate fell 8.09 percent in July, the sixth-largest monthly decline since the market average exchange rate system was introduced in March 1990.

The exchange rate fell another 3.89 percent in August, bringing the two-month cumulative decline to 11.67 percent.

The rate dropped from 1,549.4 won at the end of June to 1,368.6 won at the end of August before briefly reaching the 1,330 won range intraday Monday.

Citigroup cut its third-quarter operating profit forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix by 10 percent and 3 percent, respectively.

Published Sep 8, 2026 4:10 pm KST

Sharp appreciation to weigh on exporters from 4th quarter: analysts

Vehicles bound for export are parked at a port in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, Feb. 22. Yonhap

A sharp rise in the Korean won’s value against the dollar is clouding the earnings outlook for the nation’s major exporters, including automakers and chipmakers, according to market analysts Tuesday.

In broad terms, a stronger local currency offers welcome relief to the broader economy by easing inflationary pressures and lowering import costs. The main concern, however, is the speed of the change.

A rapid rise in the won can lead to unexpected earnings losses for export-dependent companies as they have limited time to adjust product prices or production plans in response to foreign exchange swings. On top of that, they may have to reverse the benefits of a weaker won that were previously factored into their earnings forecasts.

The recent decline in the exchange rate, driven by a stronger won, has been unusually steep. Data released Monday by the Bank of Korea showed that the won-dollar exchange rate fell 8.09 percent in July alone, marking the sixth-largest monthly decline since the market average exchange rate system was introduced in March 1990.

It was the sharpest one-month drop in nearly 17 years, following the 9.81 percent decline recorded in March 2009 during the global financial crisis. With the exchange rate falling another 3.89 percent in August, the cumulative decline over the two months reached 11.67 percent.

After hovering near the 1,600 won level just months ago, the exchange rate fell from 1,549.4 won at the end of June to 1,424 won at the end of July, before dropping further to 1,368.6 won at the end of August. The downward trend has continued this month, with the exchange rate briefly falling into the 1,330 won range during intraday trading Monday. On Tuesday, the won weakened by 5.1 won against the dollar to close at 1,345.6 won per dollar, remaining in the 1,340 won range for a second straight trading day.

Lower exchange rates can support domestic purchasing power and price stability by reducing the cost of imported crude oil and key raw materials. Cost-intensive industries that rely heavily on imported commodities, such as airlines, chemical producers and food processors, stand to benefit from lower input costs.

Workers load Samsung Electronics and SK hynix semiconductors onto an aircraft bound for Hong Kong at Incheon International Airport, July 30. Joint Press Corps

The trouble arises, however, when the won’s appreciation outpaces what export-oriented industries can absorb.

For major exporters, a weaker dollar directly reduces revenues and profit margins when their foreign-currency earnings are converted into won. This dynamic poses an especially serious threat to major players in the automotive and semiconductor industries, where overseas sales account for a large share of total revenue.

As a result, automotive giants Hyundai Motor and Kia are bracing for a noticeable financial hit from the stronger won.

“Reduced export profitability will begin hurting domestic automakers’ financial statements in earnest from the fourth quarter,” Yuanta Securities analyst Kim Yong-min said.

He noted that the won’s weakness boosted operating profits by about 3.7 trillion won for Hyundai Motor and 4.3 trillion won for Kia between the first quarter of 2023 and the second quarter of 2026. However, that tailwind could eventually reverse as the won strengthens.

The chip sector is similarly exposed. In a recent research note, Nomura Securities highlighted that while Korean memory chipmakers generate revenue in U.S. dollars, a significant portion of their operating expenses — around 20 percent of sales — is incurred in won.

“Consequently, a 10 percent appreciation of the won reduces operating profit by approximately 12 percent,” the report said.

Citing intensifying currency headwinds, Citigroup recently cut its target prices for major chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK hynix to 430,000 won and 3 million won, respectively.

Citigroup also cut its third-quarter operating profit forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix by 10 percent and 3 percent, respectively.

Korean firms delay converting dollars into won as local currency strengthens

Korean won hits 14-month high against US dollar as Japan's yen strengthens

市场分析师周二表示，韩元大幅升值令韩国汽车制造商和芯片制造商的盈利前景蒙上阴影。货币走强可以降低进口成本，但韩元升值的速度令出口商担忧，因为他们调整的时间有限。韩元兑美元汇率7月份下跌8.09%，8月份又下跌3.89%，周二收于1美元兑1345.6韩元。

韩国央行表示，7月份韩元兑美元汇率下跌8.09%，这是自1990年3月引入市场平均汇率制度以来第六大单月跌幅。

8 月份汇率再次下跌 3.89%，两个月累计跌幅达到 11.67%。

汇率从 6 月底的 1,549.4 韩元跌至 8 月底的 1,368.6 韩元，周一盘中一度短暂触及 1,330 韩元区间。

花旗集团分别将三星电子和SK海力士第三季度的营业利润预期下调了10%和3%。

发布于2026年9月8日下午4:10（韩国标准时间）

分析师：第四季度升值幅度将对出口商构成压力

2月22日，出口车辆停放在京畿道平泽市的一个港口。（韩联社）

市场分析师周二表示，韩元对美元汇率的急剧上涨，令包括汽车制造商和芯片制造商在内的韩国主要出口商的盈利前景蒙上阴影。

总体而言，本币走强能够缓解通胀压力并降低进口成本，从而为整体经济带来利好。然而，主要问题在于这种变化的速度。

韩元快速升值可能导致依赖出口的企业遭受意想不到的盈利损失，因为它们调整产品价格或生产计划以应对汇率波动的时间有限。此外，它们可能不得不抵消之前计入盈利预测的韩元贬值带来的收益。

受韩元走强影响，近期韩元兑美元汇率下跌幅度异常剧烈。韩国央行周一公布的数据显示，仅7月份韩元兑美元汇率就下跌了8.09%，这是自1990年3月引入市场平均汇率制度以来第六大单月跌幅。

这是近17年来最大的单月跌幅，上一次是在2009年3月全球金融危机期间下跌9.81%。8月份汇率再次下跌3.89%，两个月累计跌幅达到11.67%。

几个月前，韩元兑美元汇率还徘徊在1600韩元附近，但随后从6月底的1549.4韩元跌至7月底的1424韩元，8月底进一步跌至1368.6韩元。本月，韩元汇率的下跌趋势仍在继续，周一盘中一度跌至1330韩元附近。周二，韩元兑美元汇率下跌5.1韩元，收于1345.6韩元，连续第二个交易日维持在1340韩元附近。

汇率走低可以通过降低进口原油和关键原材料的成本来支撑国内购买力并稳定物价。航空、化工生产商和食品加工商等高度依赖进口商品的成本密集型行业将从投入成本的降低中受益。

7月30日，在仁川国际机场，工人们将三星电子和SK海力士的半导体产品装上飞往香港的飞机。（联合新闻社）

然而，当韩元升值速度超过出口导向型产业的吸收能力时，问题就出现了。

对于主要出口商而言，美元走弱会直接降低其外汇收入兑换成韩元后的收入和利润率。这种趋势对汽车和半导体行业的龙头企业构成尤为严重的威胁，因为这些行业的海外销售额占总收入的很大一部分。

因此，汽车巨头现代汽车和起亚汽车正准备迎接韩元走强带来的明显财务冲击。

元大证券分析师金永敏表示：“出口盈利能力下降将从第四季度开始真正损害国内汽车制造商的财务报表。”

他指出，韩元疲软使得现代汽车在2023年第一季度至2026年第二季度期间的营业利润增加了约3.7万亿韩元，起亚汽车的营业利润增加了约4.3万亿韩元。然而，随着韩元走强，这种利好最终可能会逆转。

芯片行业也面临类似的风险。野村证券在最近的一份研究报告中指出，虽然韩国存储芯片制造商的收入以美元结算，但其运营支出中有相当一部分——约占销售额的20%——是以韩元计价的。

报告称：“因此，韩元升值 10% 将导致营业利润下降约 12%。”

由于汇率逆风加剧，花旗集团最近将主要芯片制造商三星电子和SK海力士的目标股价分别下调至43万韩元和300万韩元。

花旗集团同时将三星电子和SK海力士第三季度的营业利润预期分别下调了10%和3%。

由于韩元走强，韩国企业推迟了美元兑换韩元的进程。

受日元走强影响，韩元兑美元汇率创14个月新高。