Slovakia shift, elections in Poland dampen support for Ukraine

Warsaw, Poland – While Western support to provide military aid to Ukraine has been steadfast over the last nineteen months, a number of European states appear to be having a change of heart, opting to now prioritize domestic issues. Is European support for Ukraine doomed?

Since the war’s outbreak in February 2022, Poland has established itself as one of Ukraine’s firmest allies, supplying tanks, armored vehicles, howitzers, fighter jets, short-range man-portable air defense, or MANPAD, systems, and munitions, among others, to its neighbor.

Some of these donated weapons are outdated Soviet-designed gear that Warsaw has long been planning to replace with new equipment. This includes the supplied T-72 tanks for which the U.K. has deployed a number of Challenger 2 tanks to Poland in an effort to partly bridge the capacity gap.

However, in other cases, deliveries to Ukraine created temporary gaps in the Polish military’s capacities. Among others, last spring, Warsaw donated Mikoyan MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine’s Air Force before it received the first deliveries of South Korean FA-50 aircraft the country’s Ministry of National Defence ordered in 2022.

As Poland is heading towards a general election on Oct. 15, the issue of Warsaw’s relations with Kyiv has found itself at the center of the ongoing campaign. Over the past weeks, these relations have become increasingly stringent, as the two countries’ governments have clashed over an extended ban on Ukrainian grain imports. With rural voters likely to decide on the forthcoming vote’s outcome, the issue rapidly escalated into a diplomatic spat.

In a Sept. 20 interview with local broadcaster Polsat News, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki declared that, while maintaining support for Kyiv’s fight against Moscow’s invasion, his government has halted weapon supplies to Ukraine to focus on arming Poland’s armed forces.

“Ukraine is defending itself against a savage Russian attack, and we understand that this attack creates an extraordinary situation,” Morawiecki said during the interview. “We don’t donate any arms to Ukraine anymore, because we are now arming ourselves with the most modern weapons.”

Slovakia: ‘Not a single round’ to Ukraine

Another important Eastern European partner Ukraine has been able to count on previously has been Slovakia. Over the last nineteen months, the country has donated and pledged a variety of military equipment to Kyiv directly as well as via the German Ringtausch program. This has included a dozen MiG-29As fighter jets from its inventories, mine clearance systems, air to air missiles, ammunition, self-propelled artillery and more.

Yet, similar to what has taken place in Poland, the country appears to be changing its stance on arming Ukrainian troops. This change of heart has been driven by the newly elected pro-Russian Prime Minister in Slovakia, Robert Fico. One of the politician’s electoral slogans was “Not a single round,” for Ukraine, where he vowed to end military support to the war torn country.

During a press conference, following his victory on Oct. 2, Fico re-affirmed that this promise would be kept.

“We are not changing that we are prepared to help Ukraine in a humanitarian way… We are prepared to help the reconstruction of the state but you know our opinion on arming Ukraine,” he told reporters.

The official has argued that Slovakia currently has larger issues beyond the war to tend to, such as the spike in energy prices and living costs.

When asked about the delicate political context surrounding military aid to Ukraine, including the possibility that Donald Trump could be in office in 2024, Olga Stefanishyna, Ukrainian deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration appeared confident.

“Look, there are 17 different types of elections taking place around Europe, including within European institutions. It is certainly not the first or the last election of a U.S. President, but we are ready and prepared for that. We see a huge potential in strengthening bipartisan support for Ukraine,” she told the audience on Oct. 3 at the Warsaw Security Forum taking place here.

“Let’s not forget that yes it was leaders, but also people backing up the support for Ukraine [that made a difference]… One thing I am sure on earth, is that Europe will not let us down,” the official added.

Earlier this week, dozens of European Union ministers gathered in Kyiv to show continuing support after the pro-Russian candidate won the election.

Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo was a Europe correspondent for Defense News. She covers a wide range of topics related to military procurement and international security, and specializes in reporting on the aviation sector. She is based in Milan, Italy.

Jaroslaw Adamowski is the Poland correspondent for Defense News.

波兰华沙——过去19个月来，西方国家对乌克兰的军事援助一直坚定不移，但一些欧洲国家似乎正在改变立场，转而优先处理国内事务。欧洲对乌克兰的支持是否注定失败？

自 2022 年 2 月战争爆发以来，波兰已成为乌克兰最坚定的盟友之一，向其邻国提供了坦克、装甲车、榴弹炮、战斗机、短程便携式防空导弹系统（MANPADS）和弹药等物资。

这些捐赠的武器中有些是过时的苏式装备，华沙方面早就计划用新装备替换它们。这其中包括英国提供的T-72坦克，英国已向波兰部署了一批挑战者2型坦克，以部分弥补其火力缺口。

然而，在其他情况下，向乌克兰交付武器装备却造成了波兰军队能力的暂时性缺口。例如，去年春天，华沙向乌克兰空军捐赠了米格-29战斗机，而乌克兰国防部订购的韩国FA-50战斗机的首批交付日期为2022年。

随着波兰即将于10月15日举行大选，华沙与基辅的关系问题已成为此次竞选的核心议题。过去几周，由于两国政府就延长乌克兰粮食进口禁令发生冲突，两国关系日益紧张。鉴于农村选民很可能在即将到来的选举中发挥决定性作用，这一问题迅速升级为一场外交争端。

波兰总理马特乌什·莫拉维茨基在 9 月 20 日接受当地广播公司 Polsat News 采访时宣布，波兰政府在继续支持基辅对抗莫斯科入侵的同时，已停止向乌克兰提供武器，转而集中精力武装波兰武装部队。

莫拉维茨基在采访中表示：“乌克兰正在抵御俄罗斯的野蛮袭击，我们明白这次袭击造成了非常局面。我们不再向乌克兰捐赠任何武器，因为我们现在正在用最先进的武器武装自己。”

斯洛伐克：“一轮炮击都没打”乌克兰

斯洛伐克是乌克兰此前一直依赖的另一个重要的东欧伙伴。过去19个月里，斯洛伐克直接或通过德国的“环欧交易”（Ringtausch）计划向基辅捐赠或承诺提供各种军事装备，其中包括十几架库存的米格-29A战斗机、扫雷系统、空空导弹、弹药、自行火炮等等。

然而，与波兰的情况类似，斯洛伐克似乎正在改变其对乌克兰军队的武装立场。这一态度转变是由新当选的亲俄总理罗伯特·菲佐推动的。菲佐的竞选口号之一是“一发子弹都不给乌克兰”，他誓言要停止对这个饱受战争蹂躏的国家提供军事援助。

在10月2日胜选后的新闻发布会上，菲科重申他将信守这一承诺。

“我们不会改变我们准备以人道主义方式帮助乌克兰的立场……我们准备帮助该国重建，但你们也知道我们对武装乌克兰的看法，”他告诉记者。

这位官员认为，斯洛伐克目前除了战争之外，还有更大的问题需要处理，例如能源价格和生活成本的飙升。

当被问及围绕对乌克兰军事援助的敏感政治背景，包括唐纳德·特朗普可能在 2024 年继续执政时，乌克兰负责欧洲和欧洲-大西洋一体化的副总理奥尔加·斯特凡尼什娜显得信心满满。

“你看，欧洲各地正在举行17种不同类型的选举，包括欧洲机构内部的选举。这当然不是美国总统选举的第一次，也不会是最后一次，但我们已经做好了准备。我们看到了加强两党对乌克兰支持的巨大潜力，”她在10月3日于华沙举行的安全论坛上对听众说道。

“我们不能忘记，是领导人的行动，也是民众对乌克兰的支持发挥了作用……我确信，欧洲不会让我们失望，”这位官员补充道。

本周早些时候，数十位欧盟部长齐聚基辅，在亲俄候选人赢得选举后，表达了对他们的持续支持。

伊丽莎白·戈斯林-马洛曾任《防务新闻》欧洲通讯员。她的报道涵盖军事采购和国际安全等广泛领域，尤其擅长航空领域的报道。她常驻意大利米兰。

Jaroslaw Adamowski 是《防务新闻》驻波兰记者。