Democrats enter the midterms looking to conquer red territory

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On Friday, Sen. Roger Marshall took a rare step for a Republican incumbent running in Kansas: launching an attack ad against his Democratic rival.

When pastor Adam Hamilton launched his campaign for the seat four months ago, the odds seemed long. The state has not sent a Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century, and President Donald Trump has won it by at least 14 percentage points in all his campaigns.

But as the traditional post-Labor Day sprint to the midterms begins, Hamilton is optimistic.

“People are very frustrated,” Hamilton said in an interview, recalling a recent conversation with a 79-year-old man who handed him a receipt for diesel for his truck and told him, “This is why I’m voting for you.”

From the suburbs of Philadelphia to California’s Central Valley, such stories are fueling Democratic hopes that they can not only flip the House but also capture the majority in the Senate by running strong campaigns in GOP territory. If successful, Democrats would both provide a consequential check on President Donald Trump for his final two years in office and begin to repair their party’s tattered brand as they prepare for the next presidential election.

Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP

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Republicans acknowledge they face historical headwinds as the party in power two years after winning the White House and capturing unified control of Washington. And Trump has not helped by starting a war with Iran that has exacerbated a cost-of-living crisis that was already on the top of voters’ minds.

But with November’s midterm matchups largely set, the GOP sees cause for optimism in their financial advantage, Trump’s increasing efforts to galvanize the party’s base and the rise of democratic socialists across the country, whom they hope to make a liability for Democrats writ large.

“The issues are going to be the same in my race and everybody else’s,” Rep. Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin said in an interview. “People are waking up to the fact that the Democratic Party is no longer the Democratic Party – it’s the Democratic Socialists of America party.”

The GOP push ramped up this weekend as the pro-Trump super PAC MAGA Inc. began tapping into its $400 million-plus war chest for the midterms, a highly anticipated moment for vulnerable Republicans.

Starting Wednesday, Republicans are set to gather in Dallas for an unusual midterm convention that is expected to be dominated by Trump. He is scheduled to speak on both nights, and the Republican National Committee chairman, Joe Gruters, has hyped the gathering as “Trumpapalooza.”

Democrats are not letting the Republican ramp-up go unanswered. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is sending a delegation of House Democrats to Dallas to counter the convention. And Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, a potential 2028 presidential candidate, is also heading to the city to help Texas Democrats push back, according to a Pritzker spokeswoman, Leah Hurwitz.

Building off the convention, Trump has promised to spend the final 30 days of the election crisscrossing the country for his party, targeting 35 races that he believes will determine control of Congress.

Trump’s emergence as a main character in the midterms, despite his unpopularity across the country, has excited Democrats and left Republicans in competitive districts weighing how closely to tie themselves to him.

“It’ll be spectacular,” California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom told reporters Saturday in North Carolina, sarcastically praising Trump’s midterm plans. “He’s an historic president – historically unpopular.”

“President Trump is not on the ballot,” GOP Rep. Tom Barrett of Michigan, who does not plan to attend the convention, said in an interview. “I’m on the ballot and my opponent is on the ballot, and that’s the choice people are going to be faced with.”

Democrats need to flip a few seats in the House to win the majority, while their path to controlling the upper chamber is harder. They would need to net four seats, including some in Republican-leaning states, while defending a few competitive seats they already hold.

Democrats generally agree their best opportunities to pick up Senate seats are in Maine, North Carolina and Ohio, and then in tougher territory including Alaska, Iowa and Texas.

Photo Illustration by Alberto Mier/CNN/US Senate

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“Democrats have six core offensive opportunities and we are still expanding the map, forcing Republicans to scramble to defend deep red states as we head into November with multiple paths to win the majority,” Devan Barber, the executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in a statement.

The map is not without its challenges for Democrats. In Michigan, Democrats nominated progressive Abdul El-Sayed over the opposition of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who saw Rep. Haley Stevens as more electable. And in New Hampshire, Democrats are playing defense against a strong and well-known GOP candidate in former Sen. John E. Sununu. And while Democrats are encouraged by the strength of Sen. Jon Ossoff’s reelection campaign in Georgia, he is still seeking another term in a state that Trump won by 2 percentage points in 2024.

In the fight for the House majority, Democrats continue to add redder and redder districts to their target list. But they still have to defend more seats won by President Donald Trump in 2024 than Republicans have to hold on to seats he lost.

“They’re operating on our turf,” said Mike Marinella, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

The nationwide redistricting effort that Trump spent months waging has also given Republicans hope they can stem their losses. But Democrats, seeing a political landscape that has revolted against Trump, believe even some of the redrawn seats are in play, such as those that Republicans reconfigured in predominantly Latino South Texas.

In a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll , voters said they favored Democrats over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot by 5 percentage points. They disapproved of Trump’s job performance by a 25-point margin and his handling of the economy by even more.

For Democrats, the strategy for the midterms is simple: speak to the mounting economic frustrations of voters, including those who took a chance on Trump in 2024 but now feel betrayed.

“The word that I hear almost daily is ‘drowning,’” said Democratic Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet of Michigan. “Families in my district are drowning, and it is so much worse for them now than it was two years ago.”

McDonald Rivet’s district in Central Michigan is a traditional battleground district, voting for Trump by just 2% in 2024. But Democrats are also finding opportunity in places such as Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District, which supported Trump by 15 points.

The Democratic nominee there, former federal prosecutor Zach Dembo, said the issue of affordability is “hyperfocused” in the Central Kentucky district. Kentucky raises the most cattle east of the Mississippi River, he noted, making it especially impacted by Trump’s recent decision to lower tariffs on foreign beef producers .

“Really this race is not a Democrat versus Republican,” Dembo said in an interview. “It’s about change versus the status quo.”

In many competitive races, Democrats know they need to separate themselves from a national party brand that often polls worse than the GOP and has now become equated, in part, with democratic socialists such as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani .

Hamilton, for example, said he is for “strong and secure borders,” calling former President Joe Biden a “disaster” on the issue.

“When people in Kansas think about national Democrats, they think about the DSA,” Hamilton said. “I’ve been asked, ‘Are you a socialist or communist?’ My answer is, ‘No, I’m an independent-minded Democrat.’”

Nikos Frazier/Omaha World-Herald/Getty Images

The Democratic brand is especially under pressure in a handful of races where independents are running strong campaigns for Republican-held seats. In some of those contests, the Democratic nominees have stepped aside to give the independents a better shot.

Nebraska is a prominent example. During their first debate last week, GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts repeatedly labeled his independent opponent, Dan Osborn, as “Democrat Dan” as Osborn insisted he would not caucus with either party if elected.

The economy is a far more sensitive issue for Republicans, who have to sympathize with voters’ concerns while grappling with Trump’s insistence on continuing the war. Trump said Wednesday he was “not affected” by the midterms when considering an end to the war.

Republicans have mostly remained united behind Trump on the war, though their impatience has shown at times. House Speaker Mike Johnson recently said that it would be “great” if the war would end before the midterms, but if not, Republicans “can explain why that was necessary, why we had to complete the job.”

Van Orden, a retired Navy SEAL, said the consequences would be disastrous if Iran were to obtain a nuclear weapon.

Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/AP

“When I explain that to folks, they’re like, ‘Oh, I got it,’” said Van Orden, who is set to speak at the midterm convention. “And I also remind them, especially my Democratic colleagues and many people in the media, that we’re still not paying as much money for a gallon of gas as we did under Biden. We’re not.”

A few Republicans in competitive races have distanced themselves from the war by supporting resolutions to limit Trump’s war powers. Among them is Barrett, who said he is “very sensitive to the nature of prolonged war” as a 22-year Army veteran.

“I haven’t budged and this is something I feel very strongly about and I’m going to vote my conscience,” Barrett said.

Trump, who has a penchant for punishing intraparty critics, has largely held back as some Republicans in tough races have sought daylight with him. And Vice President JD Vance suggested Thursday that he understood if some candidates wanted to skip the convention to focus on “local” matters.

The White House would much rather make the midterms a referendum on Democrats who they say have lurched too far to the left.

In some key House races, Democratic voters picked nominees that national groups worry are too liberal to win in the general election. Barrett’s opponent, Will Lawrence, is one of those candidates – and CNN reported Friday about hundreds of deleted social media posts where he backed the abolition of police and prisons, among other things. Lawrence, a co-founder of the Sunrise Movement, said he no longer supports defunding the police and regretted some of his past remarks.

Andrew Roth/Sipa USA/Alamy

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Republicans are also drawing optimism from a larger stockpile of money in their national committee accounts. The Republican National Committee ended July with $130 million cash on hand, while the Democratic National Committee had $16 million in the bank, along with $18 million in debt.

That money is more relevant than ever after a Supreme Court ruling in June that struck down limits on coordinated spending between party committees and campaigns. The National Republican Congressional Committee has already taken advantage of the ruling by reserving coordinated ads for at least 20 candidates, while the NRCC’s Democratic counterpart has been slower to capitalize.

Up until this weekend, however, it was unclear whether Republicans in battleground seats could also count on MAGA Inc. to come to the rescue. But the super PAC began answering that question Saturday when it disclosed $10 million in spending on the Texas Senate race where Democratic nominee James Talarico has vastly outraised Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by nearly $60 million.

Trump suggested Friday he had almost $1 billion in outside money at his disposal and planned to spend as much as half of it on the midterms.

“We’re going to spend a lot of money because we don’t want to lose our country,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.

Republicans also hope Trump’s increased activity on the campaign trail reactivates his 2024 voters, even if it puts vulnerable incumbents in an awkward position.

At a recent meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition, the GOP nominee for Senate in North Carolina, Michael Whatley, estimated that his state had as many as 250,000 voters who have turned out for Trump in presidential elections but sat out the midterms. “That turnout is absolutely essential,” Whatley said.

One Republican strategist working on a battleground House race agreed that Republican turnout is a major issue but said the solution to the problem has to be “much deeper” than Trump hitting the road.

“I think there has to be more optimism that things are getting better” economically, the strategist said, adding that the White House lacks a “clear message” about when that will happen.

The Trump factor is not the only major variable heading into the final two months before the election.

Both parties are scrambling to respond to voters’ rising anger at data centers and the resources they consume. In the blockbuster race for governor in Nevada, GOP incumbent Joe Lombardo and his Democratic opponent, Attorney General Aaron Ford, have traded TV ads accusing one another of being too cozy with the industry.

“Data centers are raising our costs, but Joe Lombardo doesn’t care,” Ford says in one ad that replays Lombardo saying in May that he is “wholeheartedly in support of data centers.”

(Lombardo, like many GOP governors confronting the issue, has demanded data centers take responsibility for not straining local resources.)

Candidates will also spend the coming weeks haggling over whether to debate — and if so, how much. While Sen. Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson appear set for four debates in October in their all-important race in Maine, there is more uncertainty in other contests, such as the contest for Ohio governor, where Democrat Amy Acton indicated Wednesday she was not interested in debating Republican Vivek Ramaswamy .

And, in another open question, while much of the recent speculation about outside spending has focused on pro-Trump groups, super PACs aligned with Israel supporters and the cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence industries are still sitting on hundreds of millions of dollars that could shape races.

Voters can also expect to see more of potential 2028 candidates in the coming weeks, especially Democrats, as they work to show their usefulness to the party and build new allies in Congress.

Nathan Posner/Anadolu/Getty Images

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is scheduled to visit at least six states in September alone. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is expected to continue campaigning heavily to flip four House seats in his state as he runs for reelection himself. And former Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to step up her travel for candidates, even as some in GOP-leaning territory have said they would not welcome her support.

Harris shrugged off their snubbing in a TV interview Thursday, telling MS NOW, “I support them in doing whatever they need to do to win.”

Addressing reporters Thursday, Vance, widely seen as the de facto frontrunner for the GOP nomination in 2028, urged all Republicans to focus on the midterms as some of them, such as Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, have stirred buzz about their White House ambitions.

McDonald Rivet said she was taking nothing for granted in the final stretch, even after Republicans in her district nominated a relatively unknown candidate, Tom Smith, over a Trump-backed rival.

“I think that this is going to be closer than most people think,” she said. “I think that we are going to have to work for every single vote and run hard all the way through November.”

Emily Elconin/Getty Images

周五，堪萨斯州共和党现任参议员罗杰·马歇尔采取了一项罕见的举措：向他的民主党对手发起攻击性广告。

四个月前，当亚当·汉密尔顿牧师宣布竞选该席位时，胜算似乎渺茫。近一个世纪以来，该州从未向参议院输送过民主党人，而唐纳德·特朗普总统在其所有竞选中都至少以14个百分点的优势赢得了该州。

但随着劳动节后传统的中期选举冲刺阶段的开始，汉密尔顿持乐观态度。

“人们非常沮丧，”汉密尔顿在一次采访中说道，他回忆起最近与一位 79 岁老人的对话，这位老人递给他一张卡车柴油收据，并告诉他：“这就是我投票给你的原因。”

从费城郊区到加州中央谷地，这类故事正激发着民主党人的希望，他们不仅能够夺回众议院的控制权，还能通过在共和党传统票仓开展强有力的竞选活动，最终拿下参议院的多数席位。如果成功，民主党人不仅能在特朗普总统任期的最后两年对其施加有效的制衡，还能在备战下届总统大选之际，开始修复其受损的党派形象。

朱莉娅·德马雷·尼金森/美联社

“一个人几乎掌控着我们的命运”：伊朗战争令共和党面临日益严峻的中期选举危机

共和党人承认，在赢得白宫并完全掌控华盛顿两年后，他们作为执政党正面临着历史性的逆风。而特朗普发动对伊朗的战争，加剧了本已令选民最为关注的生活成本危机，更是雪上加霜。

但随着 11 月中期选举的对阵形势基本确定，共和党人看到了乐观的理由，这体现在他们的财政优势、特朗普不断努力团结党内基本盘以及全国各地民主社会主义者的崛起上，他们希望民主社会主义者能够成为民主党的一大负担。

“我和其他所有人的竞选都面临着同样的问题，”威斯康星州众议员德里克·范·奥登在一次采访中说。“人们逐渐意识到，民主党已经不再是以前的民主党了——它现在是美国民主社会主义者党。”

本周末，共和党加大了攻势，支持特朗普的超级政治行动委员会 MAGA Inc. 开始动用其超过 4 亿美元的竞选资金，为中期选举做准备。对于处境岌岌可危的共和党人来说，这是一个备受期待的时刻。

从周三开始，共和党人将在达拉斯齐聚一堂，举行一场不同寻常的中期选举大会，预计特朗普将主导此次大会。他计划在两晚都发表讲话，共和党全国委员会主席乔·格鲁特斯将此次大会宣传为“特朗普狂欢节”。

民主党人并未对共和党的攻势置之不理。众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯将派遣一个民主党代表团前往达拉斯，以应对共和党的大会。据伊利诺伊州州长、2028年总统候选人潜在候选人JB·普里茨克的发言人莉亚·赫维茨透露，普里茨克也将前往达拉斯，帮助德克萨斯州的民主党人进行反击。

特朗普在大会的基础上承诺，将在选举的最后 30 天里奔走全国各地，为他的政党拉票，重点关注他认为将决定国会控制权的 35 场竞选。

尽管特朗普在全国范围内不受欢迎，但他在中期选举中成为主要人物，这令民主党人兴奋不已，也让竞争激烈的选区的共和党人权衡与他保持多紧密的联系。

“那将会非常精彩，”加州民主党州长加文·纽森周六在北卡罗来纳州对记者说，他讽刺地称赞了特朗普的中期选举计划。“他是一位具有历史意义的总统——历史上最不受欢迎的总统。”

“特朗普总统的名字不在选票上，”不打算参加党代会的密歇根州共和党众议员汤姆·巴雷特在接受采访时说，“我的名字在选票上，我的对手的名字也在选票上，这就是人们将要面临的选择。”

民主党需要在众议院赢得几个席位才能获得多数席位，但他们控制参议院的道路则更为艰难。他们需要净增四个席位，其中包括一些来自共和党倾向州的席位，同时还要保住一些他们已经拥有的竞争激烈的席位。

民主党人普遍认为，他们赢得参议院席位的最佳机会在缅因州、北卡罗来纳州和俄亥俄州，其次是在阿拉斯加州、爱荷华州和德克萨斯州等竞争更激烈的地区。

图片由 Alberto Mier/CNN/美国参议院提供

2026年最有可能易手的9个参议院席位

“民主党有六个核心进攻机会，而且我们还在扩大版图，迫使共和党人争先恐后地保卫深红州，因为我们有多种途径赢得11月的大选多数席位，”民主党参议员竞选委员会执行主任德文·巴伯在一份声明中说。

对民主党而言，选情并非一帆风顺。在密歇根州，民主党提名进步派候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德，但遭到参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默的反对，舒默认为众议员海莉·史蒂文斯更有胜算。而在新罕布什尔州，民主党正疲于应对实力强劲且知名度很高的共和党候选人——前参议员约翰·E·苏努努。尽管民主党对参议员乔恩·奥索夫在佐治亚州的连任竞选势头强劲感到鼓舞，但他仍在寻求连任，而特朗普在2024年大选中在该州以2个百分点的优势获胜。

在争夺众议院多数席位的斗争中，民主党人不断将越来越倾向共和党的选区列入目标名单。但他们仍然需要捍卫更多特朗普总统在2024年赢得的席位，而共和党人则需要保住他失去的席位。

“他们在我们的地盘上活动，”全国共和党国会委员会发言人迈克·马里内拉说。

特朗普耗时数月发起的全国性选区重划行动，也让共和党人看到了遏制颓势的希望。但民主党人看到政治格局已经对特朗普不利，认为即使是一些重新划分的选区也仍有变数，例如共和党人在拉丁裔人口占多数的德克萨斯州南部重新划分的那些选区。

路透社/益普索最近的一项民调显示，选民在国会普选中更倾向于民主党候选人，支持率比共和党候选人高出5个百分点。他们对特朗普的执政表现不满25个百分点，对他的经济处理方式的不满程度更高。

对于民主党人来说，中期选举的策略很简单：迎合选民日益增长的经济不满情绪，包括那些在 2024 年冒险支持特朗普但现在感到被背叛的选民。

“我几乎每天都能听到‘溺水’这个词，”来自密歇根州的民主党众议员克里斯汀·麦克唐纳·里维特说。“我选区的家庭正在遭受溺水之苦，而且现在的情况比两年前糟糕得多。”

麦克唐纳·里维特所在的密歇根州中部选区是一个传统的摇摆选区，2024 年特朗普在该选区仅以 2% 的微弱优势获胜。但民主党人也在肯塔基州第六国会选区等地找到了机会，该选区曾以 15 个百分点的优势支持特朗普。

该选区的民主党候选人、前联邦检察官扎克·德姆博表示，肯塔基州中部选区“高度关注”食品价格问题。他指出，肯塔基州是密西西比河以东养牛量最大的州，因此受特朗​​普近期降低外国牛肉生产商关税的决定影响尤为严重。

“这场选举实际上并非民主党与共和党之争，”德姆博在一次采访中说道，“而是关于变革与现状的较量。”

在许多竞争激烈的选举中，民主党人知道他们需要将自己与全国性的政党品牌区分开来，该品牌的民调支持率通常比共和党还低，而且现在在某种程度上已经与纽约市市长佐兰·马姆达尼等民主社会主义者划上了等号。

例如，汉密尔顿表示他支持“强大而安全的边境”，并称前总统乔·拜登在这个问题上是“一场灾难”。

“堪萨斯州的人们一想到民主党，就会想到美国民主社会主义者协会（DSA）。”汉密尔顿说，“我经常被问到，‘你是社会主义者还是共产主义者？’我的回答是，‘不，我是一个有独立思考能力的民主党人。’”

Nikos Frazier/Omaha World-Herald/Getty Images

在少数几个由独立候选人角逐共和党把持席位的选区中，民主党的品牌形象尤其面临压力。在部分选区，民主党候选人已经退出竞选，以便让独立候选人有更大的机会。

内布拉斯加州就是一个突出的例子。在上周的首场辩论中，共和党参议员皮特·里基茨多次称他的独立候选人对手丹·奥斯本为“民主党人丹”，因为奥斯本坚称，如果当选，他不会加入任何一个党团。

对共和党人来说，经济问题远比经济问题敏感得多。他们既要顾及选民的担忧，又要应对特朗普坚持继续战争的立场。特朗普周三表示，在考虑结束战争时，中期选举“并未影响”他的决定。

尽管共和党人有时也流露出不耐烦，但他们在战争问题上总体上仍然团结在特朗普一边。众议院议长迈克·约翰逊最近表示，如果战争能在期中选举前结束，那将“非常好”，但如果不能，共和党人“可以解释为什么这场战争是必要的，为什么我们必须完成这项任务”。

退役海军海豹突击队员范·奥登表示，如果伊朗获得核武器，后果将不堪设想。

汤姆·威廉姆斯/CQ Roll Call/美联社

“当我向人们解释这一点时，他们会说，‘哦，我明白了，’”即将在中期选举大会上发言的范·奥登说道。“我还会提醒他们，特别是我的民主党同僚和许多媒体人士，我们现在每加仑汽油的价格仍然比拜登执政时期低。事实的确如此。”

在竞争激烈的选战中，一些共和党人通过支持限制特朗普战争权力的决议，与这场战争划清界限。其中包括巴雷特，他曾是一名服役22年的陆军老兵，并表示自己“非常了解旷日持久战争的本质”。

“我立场坚定，这件事我非常重视，我会凭良心投票，”巴雷特说。

特朗普素来喜欢打击党内批评者，但面对一些选情胶着的共和党候选人试图拉开与他的距离，他却大多保持克制。副总统万斯周四表示，他理解一些候选人如果想缺席党代会，专注于“地方”事务。

白宫更希望将中期选举变成对民主党的一次全民公投，他们认为民主党已经向左翼走得太远了。

在一些关键的众议院选举中，民主党选民选出的候选人让一些全国性团体担忧，认为他们过于自由派，难以在普选中获胜。巴雷特的对手威尔·劳伦斯就是其中之一。CNN周五报道称，他删除了数百条社交媒体帖子，这些帖子中他支持废除警察和监狱等政策。劳伦斯是“日出运动”（Sunrise Movement）的联合创始人，他表示自己不再支持削减警察经费，并对过去的一些言论表示后悔。

Andrew Roth/Sipa USA/Alamy

“去你妈的……快去死吧”：摇摆选区民主党众议员候选人删除的推文揭示其极左倾向

共和党人也因其全国委员会账户中更充裕的资金储备而感到乐观。截至7月底，共和党全国委员会手头现金1.3亿美元，而民主党全国委员会则有1600万美元存款，同时还背负着1800万美元的债务。

最高法院6月份的一项裁决推翻了对政党委员会和竞选活动之间协调支出的限制，使得这笔资金比以往任何时候都更加重要。全国共和党国会委员会已经利用这项裁决，为至少20位候选人预留了协调广告位，而民主党国会委员会则行动较为迟缓。

然而，直到本周末，共和党在关键选区能否指望“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）超级政治行动委员会出手相助仍不明朗。但该委员会周六开始解答这个问题，他们披露了在德克萨斯州参议员竞选中投入的1000万美元，民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科的筹款额远远超过共和党总检察长肯·帕克斯顿，领先优势近6000万美元。

特朗普周五暗示，他手头有近 10 亿美元的外部资金可供支配，并计划将其中一半用于中期选举。

“我们将投入大量资金，因为我们不想失去我们的国家，”特朗普在椭圆形办公室告诉记者。

共和党人也希望特朗普加大竞选力度，重新激活他在2024年的选民，即使这会让处境艰难的现任议员们陷入尴尬境地。

在最近一次共和党犹太联盟的会议上，北卡罗来纳州共和党参议员候选人迈克尔·沃特利估计，该州有多达25万选民在总统选举中投票支持特朗普，但却没有参加中期选举。“这种投票率至关重要，”沃特利说。

一位参与关键州众议院选举的共和党策略师也认为，共和党选民投票率是一个重要问题，但他表示，解决这个问题的办法必须比特朗普四处奔走拉票“深刻得多”。

这位策略师表示，“我认为人们应该对经济形势好转抱有更大的乐观态度”，并补充说，白宫缺乏关于经济何时好转的“明确信息”。

特朗普因素并不是大选最后两个月里唯一的主要变数。

面对选民对数据中心及其资源消耗日益增长的愤怒，两党都在竭力应对。在内华达州州长这场备受瞩目的竞选中，共和党现任州长乔·隆巴多和他的民主党对手、州检察长亚伦·福特互相投放电视广告，指责对方与数据中心行业关系过于密切。

“数据中心正在增加我们的成本，但乔·隆巴多却毫不在意，”福特在一则广告中说道，该广告重播了隆巴多在五月份发表的言论，当时隆巴多表示他“全心全意地支持数据中心”。

（与许多面临此问题的共和党州长一样，隆巴多要求数据中心承担责任，避免给当地资源造成过大压力。）

接下来几周，候选人们还将就是否进行辩论以及辩论次数进行讨价还价。虽然缅因州参议员苏珊·柯林斯和民主党挑战者特洛伊·杰克逊似乎已确定在10月份进行四场辩论，以决出胜负，但其他选情则存在更多不确定性，例如俄亥俄州州长竞选，民主党候选人艾米·阿克顿周三表示，她对与共和党候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米辩论不感兴趣。

此外，还有一个悬而未决的问题：虽然最近关于外部支出的猜测大多集中在支持特朗普的团体上，但与以色列支持者结盟的超级政治行动委员会以及加密货币和人工智能行业仍然掌握着数亿美元的资金，这些资金可能会影响选举结果。

选民们还可以期待在接下来的几周内看到更多 2028 年的潜在候选人，尤其是民主党人，因为他们正在努力向党内展示自己的价值，并在国会中建立新的盟友。

Nathan Posner/Anadolu/Getty Images

前交通部长皮特·布蒂吉格计划仅在九月份就访问至少六个州。宾夕法尼亚州州长乔什·夏皮罗预计将继续大力竞选，力图在该州赢得四个众议院席位，同时他本人也在竞选连任。前副总统卡马拉·哈里斯预计也将增加为候选人助选的行程，尽管一些共和党倾向地区的选民表示不欢迎她的支持。

哈里斯周四在接受电视采访时对他们的冷落不以为意，她告诉 MS NOW：“我支持他们为了赢得比赛而做任何他们需要做的事情。”

周四，被广泛视为 2028 年共和党总统候选人提名的实际领跑者的万斯在对记者发表讲话时，敦促所有共和党人将注意力集中在中期选举上，因为他们中的一些人，例如德克萨斯州参议员特德·克鲁兹，已经引发了人们对他们入主白宫的野心的猜测。

麦克唐纳·里维特表示，即使在她所在选区的共和党人提名了相对不知名的候选人汤姆·史密斯，而不是特朗普支持的竞争对手之后，她也没有在最后阶段掉以轻心。

“我认为这次选举会比大多数人想象的更胶着，”她说。“我认为我们必须为每一张选票而努力，一路拼搏到11月。”