Brazil’s oil exports surge as China seeks alternatives to Iranian crude

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Brazilian oil production and exports have hit record highs this year, largely due to increased demand from China as the US-Iran war continues to reshape global trade and geopolitical relationships.

The change highlights a global race for alternative energy sources as Middle East conflict slows oil from the region – a race that has major repercussions for the price of gas, oil, cooking fuel and other energy for consumers around the world.

China’s cultivation of trade ties with Latin America’s largest economy isn’t new. Over the past two decades, the Asian nation has grown its foothold in a part of the world long thought of as the United States’ backyard.

“I have in the past called Brazil the winner of the trade wars, and now of this actual war,” Kathryn Rooney Vera, the chief market strategist for financial services company StoneX, told CNN.

Brazil’s record-high oil production ramped up after the warring nations closed the Strait of Hormuz. The bottleneck sent China’s total crude imports plunging about 40% between February and May, Rooney Vera noted, “making them look elsewhere – to Brazil.”

The significance of Brazil’s expanded role as an alternative global supplier isn’t lost on the Brazilian government. Given “greater geopolitical instability and risks on the main international supply routes,” Brazil’s Minister of Mines and Energy, Alexandre Silveira, said in a statement to CNN, expanded oil production “has greater strategic relevance.”

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Brazil’s crude production, largely driven by Chinese demand, rose to a record 4.5 million barrels per day in June, up 19% from a year earlier. And thanks to the rise in the price of oil, the value of oil exports to China more than doubled in the first half of the year to a record $15.1 billion, according to the Brazil-China Business Council.

Brazil is positioning itself as a “stable, safe and predictable energy provider,” Silveira told CNN.

The war in Iran has choked off the Strait of Hormuz, a key point of transit for what had been about 20% of the world’s oil before the war. The flow of traffic has improved in recent weeks, but as the US and Iran have struggled over control of the strait since last winter, countries around the world have sought alternative energy sources and looked to cut back on energy use.

Since the US and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February, global oil prices have jumped 30% to more than $90 per barrel.

That’s created an opportunity for Brazil, which has been pushing to expand its role in global energy markets. In 2006, massive oil reserves were found off the coast of Brazil, but that crude lies deep under a thick layer of salt , making it technically tricky and expensive to tap.

But tapping those pre-salt (also called subsalt) reserves is more profitable now for two reasons: technological advances – and the war-driven jump in global crude prices.

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That means Brazil can ramp up its oil production, and therefore its oil exports, significantly over the coming years.

And energy intelligence platform Enverus estimates Brazil’s pre-salt production can hit as much as 4 million barrels per day by 2030.

Last month, Petrobras, Brazil’s state-controlled oil producer, announced a new offshore oil discovery in the region known as the Equatorial Margin, off the coast of Amapá state near the mouth of the Amazon River. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva welcomed the announcement, calling the discovery “a passport to this country’s future.” He added: “If President Trump wants to continue the war with Iran and close the Strait of Hormuz, we will open up the Equatorial Margin to the entire world.”

In a statement, Petrobras said that its production and exports aren’t dependent on any single geopolitical event. And it added that it considers itself an attractive alternative to oil producers stymied by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

“Petrobras has alternative routes from the area of conflict, which gives security and competitive pricing to our operations, preserving our margins,” the company said.

Maira Erlich/彭博社/盖蒂图片社

今年巴西石油产量和出口量均创历史新高，这主要是由于美伊战争持续重塑全球贸易和地缘政治关系，导致中国需求增加。

这一变化凸显了全球对替代能源的竞争，因为中东冲突减缓了该地区的石油供应——这场竞争对世界各地消费者的汽油、石油、烹饪燃料和其他能源价格产生了重大影响。

中国与拉丁美洲最大经济体发展贸易关系并非始于今日。过去二十年来，这个亚洲国家在长期以来被视为美国后院的地区不断站稳脚跟。

“我过去曾称巴西是贸易战的赢家，现在又称巴西是这场实际战争的赢家，”金融服务公司 StoneX 的首席市场策略师 Kathryn Rooney Vera 告诉 CNN。

在交战国封锁霍尔木兹海峡后，巴西的石油产量创下历史新高。鲁尼·维拉指出，海峡阻塞导致中国2月至5月间的原油进口总量暴跌约40%，迫使他们转向其他来源——巴西。

巴西政府深知巴西作为全球替代供应国的角色日益重要。巴西矿业和能源部长亚历山大·西尔维拉在接受CNN采访时表示，鉴于“地缘政治不稳定加剧，主要国际供应路线面临风险”，扩大石油产量“具有更大的战略意义”。

法比奥·特谢拉/阿纳多卢/盖蒂图片社

受中国需求的推动，巴西原油产量在6月份飙升至创纪录的每日450万桶，较上年同期增长19%。据巴西-中国贸易全国委员会的数据，由于油价上涨，今年上半年巴西对华石油出口额翻了一番多，达到创纪录的151亿美元。

西尔维拉告诉 CNN，巴西正在将自己定位为“稳定、安全和可预测的能源供应商”。

伊朗战争导致霍尔木兹海峡交通中断，该海峡曾是全球约20%石油的重要运输通道。近几周来，海峡交通状况有所改善，但自去年冬天以来，美国和伊朗一直在争夺海峡控制权，世界各国都在寻求替代能源并削减能源消耗。

自美国和以色列2月底袭击伊朗以来，全球石油价格已上涨30%，超过每桶90美元。

这为巴西创造了机遇，巴西一直致力于扩大其在全球能源市场中的作用。2006年，巴西近海发现了储量巨大的石油，但这些原油深埋在厚厚的盐层之下，开采难度大、成本高。

但现在开采盐下（也称盐下层）油气储量更有利可图，原因有二：一是技术进步，二是战争导致全球原油价格飙升。

达多·加尔迪里/彭博社/盖蒂图片社

这意味着巴西可以在未来几年大幅提高石油产量，从而大幅增加石油出口。

能源情报平台 Enverus 估计，到 2030 年，巴西盐下油田的石油日产量可能高达 400 万桶。

上个月，巴西国家石油公司（Petrobras）宣布在亚马逊河口附近的阿马帕州沿海赤道边缘地区发现新的海上油田。巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦对这一消息表示欢迎，称其为“通往国家未来的通行证”。他补充道：“如果特朗普总统想继续与伊朗开战并封锁霍尔木兹海峡，我们将向全世界开放赤道边缘地区。”

巴西石油公司在一份声明中表示，其石油生产和出口并不依赖于任何单一的地缘政治事件。该公司还补充说，对于那些因霍尔木兹海峡实际关闭而举步维艰的石油生产商而言，巴西石油公司是一个颇具吸引力的替代选择。

“巴西石油公司有远离冲突地区的替代路线，这为我们的运营提供了安全保障和具有竞争力的价格，从而保住了我们的利润率，”该公司表示。