Republicans are panicking about 2026. Should they be?

The GOP has apparently reached the PANIC! stage of the 2026 midterm election.

Stories in a number of news outlets in recent days have painted a picture of Republicans suddenly reckoning with many ill omens and convincing themselves that doom lies ahead. Campaign operatives who have long been nervous about their chances of keeping the House are now even wringing their hands about the Senate .

Sometimes such panic is misplaced. Look no further than the 2022 election, when many Democrats feared a “red wave” — right before they beat history and basically fought the election to a draw.

So how panicked should Republicans be? A fair amount is surely warranted at this point, but they still have a number of factors tracking in their favor.

I ran through some of this on Friday , when I looked at how many of the atmospherics in a new CNN poll were worse than they were ahead of the GOP’s worst midterms of the 21st century, in 2006 and 2018.

But there’s still more than a month to go, and some indicators aren’t yet cooperating with the idea of a huge Democratic wave.

Trump’s approval numbers appear worse than any modern president heading into a midterm — with voters seemingly feeling more itchy to vote against him than they did against George W. Bush in 2006. And both the Iran war and inflation appear to be massive liabilities that are blocking out other issues .

Democrats’ advantage on the so-called generic ballot isn’t as lopsided as it was in 2006, but it’s trending toward double digits, which historically suggests we’re headed for a significant rout.

And that gets at what’s particularly troublesome for Republicans right now: the trend. Things haven’t looked good for the GOP for a while, but they appear to be getting worse. And there’s little reason to believe that will change.

For one, we now appear past the point where we could see a resolution to the Iran war that would send gas prices tumbling in time to significantly register with voters. Even if there were signs that the US could cut a deal with Iran, it would take time to sort out (remember how the memorandum of understanding took a while to fall apart?). And even if Trump ended the war without a deal, there’s little indication that Iran would relinquish control over the Strait of Hormuz; it’s given Tehran tremendous leverage, after all.

What’s more, Trump appears either uninterested in or incapable of changing his tactics in ways that could help the GOP. He’s continued focusing on the White House ballroom, a trade war with Canada, the Kennedy Center and various other provocations long after it became clear these things are decidedly not what voters want — and that they view him as neglecting what they really care about: the economy.

It’s all apparently baked in at this point.

And finally, the remaining undecided voters appear quite gettable for Democrats. A New York Times-Siena College poll recently showed undecided likely voters disapproved of Trump 55%-19% , with 4 in 10 strongly disapproving. CNN polling also suggests voters who haven’t chosen between Democrats and Republicans are more likely to be young people and voters of color — normally Democratic-leaning demographics.

There is, however, at least one factor that’s moving in the GOP’s direction, and that’s spending .

Data from AdImpact on Monday showed Republicans have spent more in nearly every major Senate race now, and they have reserved more airtime in all nine of the most competitive races. The GOP’s financial advantage really took hold in the latter part of September.

If one wanted to make an optimistic case for Republicans, it’s that this could help drive down support for Democrats running in some of these competitive red states who might not match up ideologically with the electorate — people like James Talarico in Texas.

And some of those candidates have had surprisingly good image numbers that could be difficult to maintain if they’re blitzed on the airwaves.

Plus, Republicans simply benefit from significant built-in advantages that could help repel a blue wave: the current House and Senate maps.

In the Senate, those red states are Democrats’ majority-makers. They need at least two states Trump won by double digits in 2024. Even in 2018, one of those particularly bad GOP midterm years, Republicans actually gained two Senate seats because the map was tilted in their favor.

In the House, the GOP’s mid-decade redistricting gambit has tilted a clear majority of the districts toward Republicans — so much so that the median House district is about 3.5 points redder than the country as a whole , according to the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

Considering all of that — and throwing in the possibility of things shifting modestly back to the GOP and/or the polls being slightly off — it’s plausible that a Democratic win could at least be less resounding than pundits are largely projecting right now.

Just look at some of these Senate races. Democrats are generally leading in Maine, Michigan and New Hampshire. But Times-Sienna polling had GOP Maine Sen. Susan Collins up 3 and Republicans within 5 in New Hampshire , and Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has been ahead by the low-to-mid-single digits, including in a CNN poll .

There is increasing talk of Republicans losing double-digit Trump districts in the House and possibly multiple double-digit Trump states in the Senate. But the latest evidence is that they’re still competing for some swing and even blue states in the Senate.

And any one of those states, if it went red, would throw a huge wrench in Democrats’ majority math.

For now, it’s worth keeping a close eye on the polling in those three states. If they all start to get away from Republicans, then it might really be time to panic.

共和党显然已经对2026年中期选举感到恐慌！

近几日多家新闻媒体的报道描绘了一幅共和党人突然意识到诸多不祥之兆，并深信厄运即将降临的景象。长期以来一直对保住众议院控制权感到担忧的竞选人员，如今甚至开始为参议院的局势忧心忡忡。

有时候这种恐慌是多余的。2022年的选举就是一个很好的例子，当时许多民主党人担心会出现“红色浪潮”——结果他们却打破了历史，最终与对手打成了平手。

那么共和党人应该有多恐慌呢？目前来看，他们当然应该感到相当程度的恐慌，但他们仍然掌握着一些对他们有利的因素。

上周五，我研究了其中的一些情况，当时我查看了 CNN 最新民调中许多大气状况指标比共和党在 2006 年和 2018 年两次 21 世纪最糟糕的中期选举之前的状况还要糟糕。

但距离大选还有一个月的时间，一些指标尚未表明会出现民主党大胜的趋势。

特朗普的支持率似乎比任何一位现代总统在中期选举前都要低——选民们似乎比2006年反对小布什时更迫切地想要投票反对他。伊朗战争和通货膨胀似乎都是巨大的负担，掩盖了其他问题。

民主党在所谓的普选投票中的优势虽然不如 2006 年那样悬殊，但正在向两位数迈进，从历史经验来看，这表明我们即将遭遇一场惨败。

这就触及了共和党目前尤其棘手的问题：趋势。共和党的处境已经持续低迷一段时间了，而且似乎还在恶化。几乎没有理由相信这种情况会改变。

首先，我们现在似乎已经错过了伊朗战争能够迅速解决、从而导致油价暴跌并引起选民强烈关注的时机。即便有迹象表明美国可能与伊朗达成协议，也需要时间来敲定（还记得谅解备忘录是如何一步步瓦解的吗？）。而且，即便特朗普在没有达成协议的情况下结束了战争，也几乎没有迹象表明伊朗会放弃对霍尔木兹海峡的控制权；毕竟，这赋予了德黑兰巨大的筹码。

更糟糕的是，特朗普似乎要么对改变策略不感兴趣，要么根本无力改变策略来帮助共和党。尽管选民们已经清楚地认识到，白宫宴会厅、与加拿大的贸易战、肯尼迪中心以及其他各种挑衅行为并非他们所愿，而且他们认为他忽视了他们真正关心的问题：经济，但他仍然继续把精力放在这些事情上。

看来一切都已成定局了。

最后，剩余的摇摆选民似乎对民主党来说很容易争取。纽约时报和锡耶纳学院最近的一项民调显示，在可能投票但尚未决定的选民中，55%的人不认可特朗普，19%的人认可他，其中十分之四的人强烈不认可他。CNN的民调也表明，尚未在民主党和共和党之间做出选择的选民更有可能是年轻人和有色人种选民——这些群体通常倾向于民主党。

然而，至少有一个因素正在朝着对共和党有利的方向发展，那就是支出。

AdImpact周一公布的数据显示，共和党在几乎所有重要的参议院竞选中都增加了支出，并且在竞争最激烈的九场竞选中都预定了更多的广告时段。共和党的财力优势在9月下旬真正显现出来。

如果要为共和党人提出一个乐观的理由，那就是这可能会降低民主党人在一些竞争激烈的红色州的得票率，因为这些州的候选人在意识形态上可能与选民不符——比如德克萨斯州的詹姆斯·塔拉里科。

而其中一些候选人的形象评分出奇地好，如果他们在广播电视上遭到铺天盖地的宣传，这种好形象评分可能很难维持下去。

此外，共和党人还拥有一些固有的巨大优势，这些优势可以帮助他们抵御蓝色浪潮：目前的众议院和参议院选区划分。

在参议院，那些共和党占优势的州是民主党获得多数席位的关键。他们至少需要拿下两个特朗普在2024年以两位数优势获胜的州。即使在2018年共和党中期选举表现特别糟糕的年份之一，共和党实际上也赢得了两个参议院席位，因为当时的选情对他们有利。

在众议院，共和党在十年前中期进行的选区重划策略，使得绝大多数选区向共和党倾斜——以至于根据弗吉尼亚大学政治中心的数据，众议院选区的中位数比全国整体的共和党倾向高出约 3.5 个百分点。

考虑到所有这些因素——再加上局势可能略微向共和党倾斜，以及民调结果可能略有偏差——民主党的胜利至少可能不会像评论员目前普遍预测的那样势均力敌。

看看这些参议院选举就知道了。民主党在缅因州、密歇根州和新罕布什尔州普遍领先。但《时代》杂志和锡耶纳学院的民调显示，缅因州共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯领先3个百分点，新罕布什尔州共和党领先幅度不到5个百分点，而密歇根州民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德的领先优势也只有个位数，包括CNN的民调也显示如此。

越来越多的人认为，共和党将在众议院失去两位数的特朗普支持率选区，甚至可能在参议院失去多个两位数的特朗普支持率州。但最新证据表明，他们仍在努力争取一些摇摆州，甚至是民主党占优势的州在参议院的席位。

如果其中任何一个州倒向共和党，都会对民主党的多数席位构成巨大威胁。

目前来看，密切关注这三个州的民调结果很有必要。如果这三个州的民调结果都开始偏离共和党，那可能真的要引起重视了。