El-Sayed scores marquee victory for progressives, and other takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries

The progressive effort to remake the Democratic Party triumphed in battleground Michigan on Tuesday, as former public health official Abdul El-Sayed defeated the more moderate Rep. Haley Stevens — and the party’s establishment, which had rallied behind her.

El-Sayed was outspent in the Senate primary by a 30-to-1 margin on the television airwaves — with about half of the $62 million advertising deluge being funded by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which aimed to defeat a strident critic of Israel’s war in Gaza following Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attacks.

El-Sayed proved much more capable of commanding attention online — owing in part to his omnipresence on podcasts and social media, in interviews with influencers and traditional media alike, in addition to a steady schedule of well-attended rallies. He used those appearances to promote an agenda he’d streamlined into a simple catchphrase: Money out of politics, money in your pocket and Medicare for all.

Along the way, El-Sayed built a new, progressive grassroots that included an enthusiastic social media following and a committed crop of young volunteers.

El-Sayed’s narrow win, cementing a high-stakes November matchup between him and former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers, wasn’t just an indicator of progressives’ ascendance within the Democratic coalition. It was also a preview of the battles to come in 2028, when the party will choose its first standard-bearer to lead it into a post-Trump political era.

It was the most closely watched race — and one of multiple progressive vs. moderate contests — on Tuesday’s slate of primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Virginia and Washington state.

Voters set the matchups in the governor’s races in Michigan and Kansas. They also chose their nominees in key congressional races in Virginia. And an incumbent Democrat held off a democratic socialist former congresswoman vying to win back her old seat in Missouri.

Here are takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries:

Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP

El-Sayed’s win ushers in a big moment for both the Democratic Party and the Bernie Sanders wing of the party.

While that wing and democratic socialists (a label El-Sayed does not claim) have gotten significant traction in primaries, that’s come almost wholly in deep-blue areas.

So El-Sayed’s primary win presents us with something rare: A test case for a far-left candidate in a crucial battleground race.

There’s a lot at stake — win or lose.

Win, and El-Sayed proves the party doesn’t need to be scared of candidates who are a little more ideologically rigid. If he does particularly well, he could even bolster theories that Democrats do better with more compelling candidates who can drive base turnout higher.

This is basically the theory that Sanders never got to test out in a presidential general election, having lost in the 2016 and 2020 primaries.

But lose — especially in what could be a good Democratic year nationally — and El-Sayed will have confirmed the establishment’s warnings about him and candidates like him.

So far, we don’t have good data establishing that El-Sayed necessarily performs better or worse than Stevens in the general election. (Rogers, though, has said privately that he feels he’d be in “good shape” against El-Sayed, CNN reported .)

The 2026 battle for the Senate is likely to focus heavily on El-Sayed and how he might play with swing voters, and the results could say a lot about the future of the Democratic Party, too.

Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

Stevens’ loss should help solidify another emerging narrative on the left: The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is looking a lot like a liability for progressives, maybe even an albatross.

The nation’s most influential pro-Israel group and its affiliated entities spent more than $30 million helping Stevens — by far AIPAC’s biggest outlay for one candidate ever. But that spending might well have worked against her.

As as Democratic voters have turned sharply against Israel in recent years, being known as the candidate of AIPAC and being pro-Israel is increasingly an attack line in Democratic primaries. And El-Sayed was happy to focus on where the money behind Stevens was coming from .

It’s difficult to completely isolate the Israel and AIPAC factor. And AIPAC did get a win Tuesday, having spent more than $2 million to help Missouri Rep. Wesley Bell easily fend off democratic socialist former Rep. Cori Bush.

But AIPAC’s split record this cycle isn’t as good as it usually is, according to data compiled by the New York Times . What’s more, it’s generally not actually running ads on Israel-related issues — a tacit acknowledgment that they probably aren’t particularly helpful.

El-Sayed’s win was hardly the only major victory for the left wing of the Democratic Party on Tuesday.

A pair of democratic socialists also won key House primaries in Michigan.

Perhaps the biggest one was climate activist William Lawrence’s win in the 7th district. Lawrence prevailed after two more establishment-oriented candidates — former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink and Navy SEAL veteran Matt Maasdam — split the rest of the vote.

And this is a battleground general election race. That means the Sanders wing of the party now confronts major proving grounds in both the Senate race and a very important House race.

Lawrence’s campaign was heavily criticized by the Congressional Black Caucus and even House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, after the Huffington Post published Lawrence’s 2024 remarks saying that Black political leaders “defang the White left.”

CNN is also now projecting that democratic socialist state Rep. Donavan McKinney ousted Rep. Shri Thanedar in the Detroit-based 13th district.

The result might have been less about policies than racial representation — the majority-Black city had recently been without a Black representative for the first time since the 1950s — but it’s still a win for DSA.

The wins follow some major recent wins for democratic socialists and is the third time one has defeated an incumbent this cycle — with the other two coming in New York City and Colorado.

DSA did suffer one setback Tuesday, though, with Bush’s loss in Missouri.

National Democrats weren’t the only ones dealing with disappointment in a top-targeted Michigan House race.

On the GOP side, we got a pretty shocking result: Tom Smith, who suspended his campaign last month, defeated Trump-backed candidate Amir Hassan in the 8th congressional district.

The little-known Smith doesn’t appear to have filed federal campaign finance reports or run a robust campaign. His website describes him as a small business owner.

Smith in a statement to CNN on Wednesday signaled he would resurrect his campaign.

“I look forward to working with” GOP leaders “to expand our House majority and advance President Trump’s America First agenda,” Smith said.

Hassan is a US Navy veteran and former federal law enforcement officer who served as a watch commander in the prison camps at Guantanamo Bay. Trump endorsed him in a social media post back in June, and he raised more than $700,000 for his campaign.

It’s a big blow to the GOP. Michigan’s 8th district is one of the party’s best pickup opportunities. Trump actually carried the district by two points in 2024, even as Democratic Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet won.

Republicans keep responding to the success of left-wing ballot measures by asking voters to pass ballot measures that would make ballot measures more difficult.

The problem? Voters keep rejecting these gambits. And Tuesday brought a big rejection — a spectacular one, in fact.

Voters in Missouri overwhelmingly rejected Amendment 4 . This was a GOP-led effort to require ballot measures proposed by voters to get a majority of every congressional district in the state. That would greatly increase the threshold for passing such measures, which currently only require a majority of the statewide vote, instead allowing heavily GOP districts to effectively veto them.

As of late Tuesday night, the amendment was receiving just 20% of the vote.

The margin was bigger than usual, but the outcome was familiar . Ohio voters in 2023 rejected by double-digits a GOP effort to raise the threshold for ballot measures to 60%. Similar efforts also failed by huge margins in Arkansas and South Dakota. South Dakota also rejected raising it to 55% back in 2018.

The one recent exception? Arizona, whose voters in 2022 narrowly passed a measure requiring a 60% threshold, but only for raising taxes.

Republicans also failed Tuesday on another ballot measure push, with Kansas voters rejecting an effort to make state Supreme Court justices popularly elected. (As it stands, they are appointed by the governor, and Kansas has elected plenty of Democratic governors despite being a red state.) The move was aimed at trying to overturn a 2019 ruling on abortion rights.

Michigan wasn’t the only place where Democrats were wondering whether they would get the right nominee.

That was also true of the Kansas governor’s race, where state Sen. Cindy Holscher defeated state Sen. Ethan Corson.

Corson had been endorsed by moderate term-limited Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly as well as by former Gov. Kathleen Sebelius and other establishment figures. Holscher, while having something of a moderate record, ran with a more combative, populist style while promising to take Republicans head-on.

While Kansas is a red state, it has elected a number of Democratic governors over the years. Holscher now faces state Senate President Ty Masterson, who easily won the GOP primary with Trump’s endorsement.

The other gubernatorial primaries Tuesday night were in Michigan, and they turned out about as expected. Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson sailed to victory and will face Trump-endorsed GOP Rep. John James. James defeated businessman and former long-shot presidential candidate Perry Johnson.

Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited.

Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist megachurch pastor who has proven to be a prolific fundraiser, won the Democratic nod to take on Republican Sen. Roger Marshall — giving the party a long-shot chance at picking up a seat as they look for paths to the net four-seat gain they need to win a Senate majority in November.

He’s vying to be the latest example of Kansas occasionally showing a willingness to buck its deep-red reputation in recent years. Kelly twice beat Republicans in the red state during her two runs for governor in 2018 and 2022. And in the immediate wake of the US Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, voters in 2022 overwhelmingly rejected an amendment that said there was no constitutional right to abortion in the state.

Hamilton raised more than $3.6 million in the first two months of his campaign and closed the fundraising period that ended June 30 with $2.6 million in the bank. He bested 10 other Democrats on Tuesday, while Marshall also overcame nominal opposition.

The toughest task for Hamilton could be separating himself from a Democratic Party that is already unpopular in Kansas and rapidly shifting leftward.

To win, he could need huge numbers of voters to split their tickets between the Senate contest and a race for governor that represents potentially the GOP’s best opportunity to pick up a state executive seat in November.

In an interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper on Tuesday, Hamilton said he doesn’t know that democratic socialists who have knocked off several Democratic incumbents this year have “a momentum across the country.” Kansans, he said, are “centrist people.”

This story has been updated with additional information.

周二，在关键的密歇根州，民主党内部的进步派努力取得了胜利，前公共卫生官员阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德击败了较为温和的众议员海莉·史蒂文斯，以及支持她的民主党建制派。

在参议院初选中，埃尔-赛义德在电视广告上的花费比对手少了 30 倍——这 6200 万美元的广告攻势中，大约一半是由美国以色列公共事务委员会资助的，该委员会的目标是击败这位对以色列在 2023 年 10 月 7 日哈马斯袭击后发动的加沙战争持强烈批评态度的候选人。

埃尔-赛义德在网络上展现出更强的影响力——这部分归功于他频繁出现在播客和社交媒体上，接受有影响力人士和传统媒体的采访，以及定期举办的座无虚席的集会。他利用这些机会宣传他的纲领，并将其精简成一句简单的口号：让金钱退出政治，让金钱留在你的口袋里，全民医保。

在此过程中，埃尔-赛义德建立了一个新的、进步的基层组织，其中包括热情的社交媒体追随者和一批忠诚的年轻志愿者。

埃尔-赛义德险胜，不仅标志着进步派在民主党联盟内部的崛起，也预示着2028年即将到来的选战。届时，民主党将选出首位领军人物，带领其迈入后特朗普时代的政治新纪元。埃尔-赛义德的胜利巩固了他在11月与前共和党众议员迈克·罗杰斯之间的巅峰对决。

这是周二堪萨斯州、密歇根州、密苏里州、弗吉尼亚州和华盛顿州初选中最受关注的一场竞选，也是多场进步派与温和派之间的较量之一。

密歇根州和堪萨斯州的州长选举由选民投票决定。他们还在弗吉尼亚州的关键国会选举中选出了候选人。此外，在密苏里州，一位现任民主党议员击败了一位试图夺回其原席位的民主社会主义前国会女议员。

以下是周二初选的几个要点：

朱莉娅·德马雷·尼金森/美联社

埃尔-赛义德的胜利对于民主党和该党的伯尼·桑德斯派系来说都是一个重要的时刻。

虽然该派别和民主社会主义者（埃尔-赛义德并不自称是民主社会主义者）在初选中获得了相当大的支持，但这几乎完全是在深蓝地区取得的。

因此，埃尔-赛义德的初选胜利给我们带来了一个罕见的情况：在一场关键的摇摆州竞选中，极左翼候选人迎来了一个考验。

输赢都至关重要。

如果埃尔-赛义德胜选，就证明民主党不必惧怕那些意识形态较为僵化的候选人。如果他表现出色，甚至可能进一步佐证这样一种理论：民主党需要更有魅力、能提高基本盘投票率的候选人才能取得更好的成绩。

这基本上就是桑德斯从未在总统大选中检验过的理论，因为他在 2016 年和 2020 年的初选中都输了。

但如果败选——尤其是在今年可能是民主党在全国范围内取得好成绩的一年——那么埃尔-赛义德就证实了建制派对他和像他一样的候选人的警告。

目前，我们还没有确凿的数据表明埃尔-赛义德在大选中一定比史蒂文斯表现更好或更差。（不过，据CNN报道，罗杰斯私下表示，他觉得自己对阵埃尔-赛义德“胜算很大”。）

2026 年参议院的争夺战很可能主要集中在埃尔-赛义德身上，以及他将如何争取摇摆选民的支持，而结果也可能对民主党的未来产生重大影响。

比尔·普利亚诺/盖蒂图片社

史蒂文斯的落败应该有助于巩固左翼阵营中另一个正在兴起的论调：美国以色列公共事务委员会（AIPAC）看起来很像进步人士的负担，甚至可能是一个沉重的包袱。

美国最具影响力的亲以色列团体及其附属机构花费超过3000万美元支持史蒂文斯——这是AIPAC迄今为止对单一候选人的最大一笔支出。但这笔支出很可能对她不利。

近年来，随着民主党选民对以色列的态度急剧转变，被视为美国以色列公共事务委员会（AIPAC）候选人以及亲以色列立场的人，在民主党初选中越来越容易成为攻击目标。而埃尔-赛义德则乐于将矛头指向史蒂文斯背后的资金来源。

很难完全排除以色列和美以公共事务委员会（AIPAC）的影响。AIPAC周二确实取得了一场胜利，他们花费了超过200万美元，帮助密苏里州众议员韦斯利·贝尔轻松击败了民主社会主义者、前众议员科里·布什。

但据《纽约时报》汇编的数据显示，AIPAC在本届选举周期中的立场摇摆不定，不如往常那么好。更重要的是，它通常不会就以色列相关议题投放广告——这实际上承认了这些广告可能并没有什么实际作用。

埃尔-赛义德的胜利并非周二民主党左翼取得的唯一重大胜利。

两名民主社会主义者也在密歇根州赢得了关键的众议院初选。

其中最引人注目的或许是气候活动家威廉·劳伦斯在第七选区的胜选。此前，另外两位倾向建制派的候选人——前美国驻乌克兰大使布里奇特·布林克和海军海豹突击队老兵马特·马斯丹——瓜分了剩余的选票，劳伦斯最终胜出。

这是一场竞争激烈的普选。这意味着桑德斯领导的民主党派系现在面临着参议院选举和一场至关重要的众议院选举的双重考验。

在《赫芬顿邮报》刊登了劳伦斯在 2024 年发表的言论后，他的竞选活动受到了国会黑人议员团甚至众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯的强烈批评。劳伦斯在言论中称，黑人政治领袖“削弱了白人左派的实力”。

CNN 也预测，民主社会主义州众议员多诺万·麦金尼在底特律所在的第 13 选区击败了众议员什里·塔内达尔。

结果可能更多地与种族代表性有关，而不是与政策有关——这座以黑人为主的城市自 20 世纪 50 年代以来首次没有黑人代表——但这仍然是民主社会主义者协会的胜利。

此次胜利是民主社会主义者近期取得的一些重大胜利之一，也是本轮选举中民主社会主义者第三次击败现任者——另外两次分别发生在纽约市和科罗拉多州。

不过，DSA周二确实遭遇了一次挫折，布什在密苏里州败选。

在备受瞩目的密歇根州众议院选举中，感到失望的并非只有全国民主党人。

共和党方面，我们得到了一个相当令人震惊的结果：上个月暂停竞选活动的汤姆·史密斯在第八国会选区击败了特朗普支持的候选人阿米尔·哈桑。

鲜为人知的史密斯似乎没有提交联邦竞选财务报告，也没有开展强有力的竞选活动。他的网站称他是一名小企业主。

史密斯周三在接受 CNN 采访时表示，他将重启竞选活动。

史密斯说：“我期待与共和党领导人合作，扩大我们在众议院的多数席位，推进特朗普总统的‘美国优先’议程。”

哈桑是美国海军退伍军人，也是一名前联邦执法人员，曾在关塔那摩湾监狱营地担任值班指挥官。特朗普在六月份的社交媒体帖子中公开支持他，他为自己的竞选筹集了超过70万美元的资金。

这对共和党来说是个沉重打击。密歇根州第八选区是该党最有希望拿下的选区之一。事实上，特朗普在2024年大选中以两个百分点的优势赢得了该选区，尽管当时民主党众议员克里斯汀·麦克唐纳·里维特赢得了该选区。

共和党人不断对左翼投票提案的成功做出回应，要求选民通过旨在使投票提案更难通过的提案。

问题在于？选民们不断拒绝这些伎俩。周二的选举结果就是一次彻底的失败——事实上，是一次惨痛的失败。

密苏里州选民以压倒性多数否决了第四修正案。这项由共和党主导的提案要求，选民提出的公投议案必须获得该州每个国会选区的多数票才能通过。这将大幅提高此类议案的通过门槛，而目前此类议案只需获得全州多数票即可通过，这意味着共和党占绝对优势的选区实际上可以否决这些议案。

截至周二晚间，该修正案仅获得 20% 的选票。

这次的差距比以往更大，但结果却似曾相识。2023年，俄亥俄州选民以两位数的差距否决了共和党提出的将公投提案门槛提高到60%的提案。类似的提案在阿肯色州和南达科他州也以巨大差距被否决。南达科他州早在2018年就否决了将门槛提高到55%的提案。

最近的一个例外是亚利桑那州，该州选民在 2022 年以微弱优势通过了一项法案，规定提高税收需要 60% 的赞成票才能通过。

周二，共和党人推动的另一项公投提案也以失败告终。堪萨斯州选民否决了一项旨在使州最高法院法官由民众直接选举产生的提案。（目前，最高法院法官由州长任命，而堪萨斯州虽然是共和党占优势的州，但也选出了许多民主党籍州长。）此举旨在推翻2019年一项关于堕胎权的裁决。

密歇根州并不是唯一一个民主党人担心能否选出合适候选人的地方。

堪萨斯州州长竞选也是如此，州参议员辛迪·霍尔舍击败了州参议员伊桑·科尔森。

科尔森获得了温和派、任期届满的民主党州长劳拉·凯利、前州长凯瑟琳·西贝柳斯以及其他一些建制派人士的支持。霍尔舍虽然政绩较为温和，但他的竞选风格却更具对抗性和民粹主义色彩，并承诺将与共和党正面交锋。

虽然堪萨斯州是共和党传统票仓，但多年来也选出过多位民主党籍州长。霍尔舍尔现在将与州参议院议长泰·马斯特森展开角逐，后者在获得特朗普的背书后轻松赢得了共和党初选。

周二晚间，密歇根州也举行了州长初选，结果基本符合预期。民主党籍州务卿乔斯林·本森轻松获胜，将与获得特朗普支持的共和党众议员约翰·詹姆斯对决。詹姆斯击败了商人、前总统候选人佩里·约翰逊，后者此前的胜算并不大。

民主党籍州长格雷琴·惠特默的任期已满。

亚当·汉密尔顿是一位联合卫理公会大型教会的牧师，他已被证明是一位多产的筹款人。他赢得了民主党的提名，将挑战共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔——这给了民主党一个渺茫的机会，让他们有机会赢得一个席位。民主党正在寻找途径，以在 11 月份赢得参议院多数席位，从而获得所需的四个席位净增席位。

他正努力成为堪萨斯州近年来偶尔打破其深红传统形象的最新例证。凯利在2018年和2022年两次竞选州长，均在该州击败了共和党候选人。此外，在美国最高法院推翻“罗诉韦德案”判决后，2022年选民以压倒性多数否决了一项修正案，该修正案声称该州不存在堕胎的宪法权利。

汉密尔顿在竞选的前两个月筹集了超过360万美元，截至6月30日的筹款期结束时，他的账户里还有260万美元。周二，他击败了其他10位民主党候选人，而马歇尔也克服了名义上的阻力。

汉密尔顿面临的最大挑战可能是如何与在堪萨斯州已经不受欢迎且正在迅速左倾的民主党划清界限。

为了赢得选举，他可能需要大量选民在参议院选举和州长选举之间进行投票，而州长选举可能是共和党在 11 月份赢得州行政席位的最佳机会。

周二，汉密尔顿在接受CNN记者杰克·塔珀采访时表示，他不认为今年击败多位民主党现任议员的民主社会主义者在全国范围内拥有“势头”。他说，堪萨斯州人是“中间派”。

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