Russia will uphold nuclear weapons limits of expired treaty, foreign minister says

BERLIN — Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the country’s parliament that Moscow will continue adhering to the numerical limits of the expired New START nuclear weapons limitation treaty, provided Washington does the same.

Speaking before the State Duma on Feb. 11, he said: “Our stance is that the moratorium declared by the president is still active, but only if the United States does not surpass the established limits.”

The statement comes less than a week after the treaty expired on Feb. 5, leaving the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals without binding restrictions for the first time in more than half a century. New START, which capped deployed strategic warheads at 1,550 on each side, was signed in 2010 and extended for five years by Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin in 2021.

President Donald Trump rejected Putin’s proposal for a voluntary one-year extension of the treaty limits, calling New START “a poorly negotiated agreement” and saying he wanted to negotiate a modernized replacement that would include China. Beijing has consistently rejected joining trilateral arms control talks, arguing that U.S. and Russian arsenals far exceed its own.

Meanwhile, some in Russia have pushed for the inclusion of the U.K. and French nuclear arsenals on the Western side of the equation. All major strategic arms reduction treaties to date have been bilateral. To address the stated concerns in Moscow and Washington, a multilateral agreement would be required, a process that experts say could be exceedingly complicated.

Russia suspended its participation in New START in February 2023, citing what it described as the “unsatisfactory state of affairs” with implementation, though Moscow continued to observe the numerical limits. The suspension ended inspections and data exchanges that had provided transparency into both arsenals.

Lavrov’s conditional commitment offers limited reassurance in an environment where verification mechanisms no longer exist. Without inspections or binding obligations, both sides must rely on intelligence assessments to determine compliance − a fragile foundation for nuclear stability as geopolitical tensions remain high over Ukraine and broader strategic competition.

Linus Höller is Defense News' Europe correspondent and OSINT investigator. He reports on the arms deals, sanctions, and geopolitics shaping Europe and the world. He holds master’s degrees in WMD nonproliferation, terrorism studies, and international relations, and works in four languages: English, German, Russian, and Spanish.

柏林——俄罗斯外交部长谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫在俄罗斯议会表示，只要华盛顿也遵守已失效的《新削减战略武器条约》的数量限制，莫斯科将继续遵守该条约。

2月11日，他在国家杜马发表讲话时说：“我们的立场是，总统宣布的暂停令仍然有效，但前提是美国不得超过既定的限制。”

这份声明发表于该条约于2月5日到期不到一周之后。到期后，世界两大核武库半个多世纪以来首次失去具有约束力的限制。新削减战略武器条约（New START）于2010年签署，该条约将双方部署的战略核弹头数量上限设定为1550枚，并于2021年由美国总统乔·拜登和弗拉基米尔·普京分别延长了五年。

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普拒绝了普京提出的自愿将条约限制期限延长一年的提议，称《新削减战略武器条约》是“谈判不力的协议”，并表示他希望谈判达成一项包含中国在内的现代化替代条约。北京方面一直拒绝加入三方军控谈判，理由是美俄两国的武器库远远超过中国自身。

与此同时，俄罗斯国内一些人士力主将英国和法国的核武库纳入西方阵营。迄今为止，所有主要的战略武器削减条约都是双边条约。为了解决莫斯科和华盛顿方面所表达的关切，需要达成一项多边协议，而专家指出，这一过程可能极其复杂。

俄罗斯于2023年2月暂停参与《新削减战略武器条约》，理由是该条约的执行情况“令人不满”，但莫斯科仍继续遵守条约规定的数量限制。此次暂停终止了此前旨在提高双方武器库透明度的核查和数据交换。

在核查机制缺失的环境下，拉夫罗夫的有条件承诺只能提供有限的保证。由于缺乏核查和约束性义务，双方只能依靠情报评估来判断是否遵守承诺——鉴于乌克兰问题和更广泛的战略竞争导致地缘政治紧张局势持续高涨，这种做法对于核稳定而言基础十分脆弱。

林努斯·霍勒是《防务新闻》的欧洲记者和开源情报调查员。他报道影响欧洲乃至全球的军火交易、制裁和地缘政治。他拥有大规模杀伤性武器不扩散、恐怖主义研究和国际关系三个硕士学位，并精通英语、德语、俄语和西班牙语四种语言。