Brent crude surpasses $100 a barrel as Iran, US escalate attacks

Investors eye inflation and central bank tightening as oil breaches the symbolic threshold once again.

A street sign for Wall Street is seen outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, New York, United States, on July 19, 2021 [Andrew Kelly/Reuters]

Global stocks have come under pressure and Brent crude oil surpassed $100 a barrel as escalating fighting across the Middle East stokes fears of energy-driven inflation.

The benchmark crude contract rose to $100.19 on Wednesday, its highest level since July 24, when a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran was in place, and its price was on the downswing.

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The US military attacked five Iranian crude oil carriers overnight, with Iran retaliating with missile attacks on US forces in Jordan and attacks on shipping.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington would keep hitting Iranian oil tankers in response to attempted attacks on US warships.

Wall Street’s three main stock indexes – the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq – each saw small losses. European stocks dropped to one-week lows, with industrial and banking stocks hit the worst. Canada’s blue-chip stock futures also inched down.

Asian markets fluctuated, although technology shares continued to climb back from a July low, driven by the artificial intelligence boom.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote, told Reuters that risk appetite remained weak due to rising oil prices from the war.

“Summer was full of hope that a peace agreement could be achieved,” he said. “This optimism is fading as we enter September.”

Manish Kabra, a multi-asset strategist at Societe Generale, said $100 was a “psychological threshold” rather than an economic one.

“We think crude needs to hit $150 to create a major drawback in demand cycle,” he said. Rising diesel prices could feed into inflation and services, he added.

The surge in oil prices has added to concerns that higher inflation will lead central banks to adopt more restrained monetary policies.

The European Central Bank is expected to hike interest rates on Thursday, and next week the US Federal Reserve will meet to determine whether they will do the same.

Bond markets are feeling the strain as well. Inflation concerns have raised yields in recent weeks as traders anticipate central bank tightening.

Since the US and Iran resumed attacks on each other at the end of August, benchmark bonds in the US, Japan and some European countries have seen multidecade-high yields, raising concerns over government borrowing costs and the health of global financial institutions.

随着油价再次突破象征性门槛，投资者密切关注通胀和央行收紧政策。

2021年7月19日，在美国纽约州纽约市，纽约证券交易所（NYSE）外可以看到华尔街的路牌。[Andrew Kelly/路透社]

由于中东地区冲突升级，引发人们对能源价格上涨引发通胀的担忧，全球股市承压，布伦特原油价格突破每桶 100 美元。

基准原油合约周三升至每桶 100.19 美元，创下自 7 月 24 日以来的最高水平。当时，美国和伊朗签署了一份谅解备忘录，原油价格正处于下跌趋势。

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美国军方连夜袭击了五艘伊朗原油运输船，伊朗则以导弹袭击驻约旦美军和袭击船只进行报复。

美国国务卿马可·卢比奥表示，为回应伊朗企图袭击美国军舰的行为，华盛顿将继续打击伊朗油轮。

华尔街三大股指——标普500指数、道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数——均小幅下跌。欧洲股市跌至一周低点，其中工业股和银行股跌幅最大。加拿大蓝筹股期货也小幅走低。

亚洲市场波动不定，但受人工智能热潮的推动，科技股继续从7月份的低点反弹。

Swissquote 高级分析师 Ipek Ozkardeskaya 告诉路透社，由于战争导致油价上涨，风险偏好依然疲软。

他说：“夏天的时候，人们都充满希望，认为能够达成和平协议。但随着九月的到来，这种乐观情绪正在消退。”

法国兴业银行多元资产策略师马尼什·卡布拉表示，100 美元是一个“心理门槛”，而不是一个经济门槛。

他表示：“我们认为原油价格需要达到每桶150美元才会对需求周期造成重大冲击。”他还补充说，柴油价格上涨可能会推高通货膨胀和服务业价格。

油价飙升加剧了人们的担忧，即更高的通胀将迫使各国央行采取更加谨慎的货币政策。

欧洲央行预计将于周四加息，而美联储将于下周开会决定是否采取同样的措施。

债券市场也感受到了压力。由于交易员预期央行将收紧货币政策，通胀担忧在最近几周推高了债券收益率。

自8月底美国和伊朗恢复互相攻击以来，美国、日本和一些欧洲国家的基准债券收益率已达到数十年来的最高水平，引发了人们对政府借贷成本和全球金融机构健康状况的担忧。