Ukraine’s battlefield optimism is ebbing as Russia threatens its ‘fortress belt’

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Iryna Rybakova is horribly aware that the front line is inching toward Kramatorsk. Having served in eastern Ukraine for several years, she has watched her units being pushed from one strategic hub after another. But she said the past few weeks have been “insane.”

The city remains one of Ukraine’s last strongholds in the Donbas region , but the Russians are getting dangerously close. Nearly all of the city’s bridges have been destroyed, and barrages of guided bombs and drones are now a daily reality.

“The attacks happen dozens of times a day. Dozens of cars, utility buildings, residential buildings, administrative buildings, and garages have been hit; they’re just setting everything on fire,” Rybakova, who serves as a press officer with Ukraine’s 93rd mechanized brigade and is based in Kramatorsk, told CNN on Monday.

“Toward the evening and in the morning, almost no one is out and about,” she said. “During the day, there are gunmen everywhere … everyone walks around with a rifle, goes out for a coffee with a rifle, heads to the store with a rifle and so on because drones are everywhere now and you never know. They can strike at any moment.”

93rd Mechanized Brigade

As the first visit to Kyiv by US President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner came and went Sunday without a major breakthrough , Ukraine is increasingly finding itself on the backfoot in many spots along the eastern front line. It’s a major change in fortune compared to the spring, when Kyiv was liberating more land than it was losing.

Jennie Olmsted, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based conflict monitor, said that while a quick breakthrough is unlikely, there has been a shift.

“(The Russians) are conducting continued infiltration missions and are slowly making progress towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk and are advancing in Kostyantynivka, but at a really slow pace,” she said.

Russia advanced or infiltrated into about 124 square kilometers (47.8 square miles) of Ukraine’s territory in August, roughly a quarter of the amount of terrain it seized in the same month last year, according to ISW.

ISW has calculated that at their current pace, Russian forces would not take over Donetsk until 2032 — if they can seize it at all.

This is a glacial pace, and it comes at a massive cost to Moscow. Western intelligence services estimate Russia is losing some 40,000 troops a month – a rate of roughly 340 casualties for every square kilometer.

But unfortunately for Ukraine, Russia is chipping away at the so-called “fortress belt” in the east, a string of four industrial cities that form the backbone of Ukraine’s eastern defenses.

The belt is key for defending what remains of the Donbas region, but also for the rest of eastern and central Ukraine. The topography and the population centers, with the roads and railroads that connect them, create a natural barrier before the less defensible, sparsely populated flat plains to the west. The concern is that if Russia were to break through here, it could then advance deeper into Ukraine at a much faster pace.

That’s why Ukraine has spent the last few years pouring resources into fortifying the cities that form this defensive line: Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka.

The fortress belt has slowly eroded over the past four and a half years. Its southernmost anchor, Kostyantynivka , has now been effectively lost as a stronghold. The Russians have spent almost a year trying to seize it and, while pockets of Ukrainian resistance remain in the north of the city, any operational value for Kyiv is long gone.

Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu/Getty Images

It’s a recurring theme along the front lines. The Russian military cannot take over cities and towns in a quick offensive that leaves most of the infrastructure intact. Instead, Moscow wages slow, grinding warfare that renders them uninhabitable.

It took Russian forces nine months of fighting to seize the nearby city of Bakhmut and nearly two years to take Pokrovsk, another supply hub. By the time they managed to gain full control, the two cities were mostly destroyed – and their strategic value to Ukraine lost, Olmsted said.

93rd Mechanized Credit

Even so, each small gain made by Russia carries major propaganda potential.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly made it clear, including over the weekend, that he is not willing to give up on his war goals in Ukraine, which include seizing all of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Russia already occupies about 81% of Donetsk and almost all of Luhansk. Moscow said in April that it had managed to seize the latter in its entirety, but Kyiv says it maintains some pockets of control.

According to Kremlin aide and negotiator Yury Ushakov, Putin told Witkoff and Kushner that the Russian army was making “tangible advances” on the battlefield and that it would soon achieve its objectives there.

CNN has been unable to verify the claim but it points to the importance of Russia’s information war. Putin has reportedly said he expects Russian forces to seize the remainder of the two regions by the end of the year (after his reported 14 previous deadlines to do so came and went).

According to the Ukraine-controlled Donetsk regional military administration, nearly 93,000 Ukrainians, including more than 4,800 children, are still living in the areas that remain under Kyiv’s control. But life is becoming increasingly difficult there. Hennadiy Yudin, a police officer with the “White Angels,” a special unit which helps the military evacuate civilians from frontline villages, said it was now impossible for his officers to drive into the town of Dobropillya and neighboring villages.

“The military are evacuating people on foot and our guys are picking them up about 10 kilometers from Dobropillya – that’s the closest we can get. Otherwise, evacuation is completely impossible there; the whole area is mined and the number of drones is just insane,” Yudin told CNN.

Donetsk Region Police

Rybakova told CNN there are still many civilians living in Kramatorsk, although she said she expected the situation to change.

“Life is still going on. (The authorities) haven’t imposed a curfew yet … this had a huge impact (in towns further to the east) – all the businesses started leaving. They say they’ll be imposing one soon,” she said.

Kramatorsk has long served as a strategic rear point for the Ukrainian units serving along the eastern front lines – and as a place to which exhausted troops can retreat for a few days of rest before their next mission. But that is no longer an option.

“There’s shelling here every day. Guided bombs, a massive barrage, eight at a time,” Rybakova said. “Just last night, they bombed the house where I used to live. We moved out of there a few months ago and it’s just completely destroyed there now.”

As Russia continues to inch towards these cities, the remaining residents fear Moscow is laying the ground for a future attack.

“They are setting conditions and preparing the battle space for offenses against Sloviansk,” Olmsted said.

“They’re really trying to degrade Ukrainian logistics and defenses in the area, and they are making it difficult for Ukrainian forces to get logistics up to their forward positions, and in the city.”

CNN’s Niamh Kennedy contributed to this report.

Editor’s note: This story has been updated.

弗朗西斯科·理查特/阿纳多卢/盖蒂图片社

伊琳娜·雷巴科娃清楚地意识到，前线正一步步逼近克拉马托尔斯克。她在乌克兰东部服役多年，亲眼目睹自己的部队被逐出一个又一个战略要地。但她说，过去几周的情况“简直太疯狂了”。

这座城市仍然是乌克兰在顿巴斯地区最后的据点之一，但俄罗斯军队正步步逼近。城内几乎所有桥梁都被摧毁，铺天盖地的制导炸弹和无人机袭击如今已成为每日的现实。

“袭击每天发生数十次。数十辆汽车、公用设施建筑、住宅楼、行政楼和车库遭到袭击；他们到处放火烧东西，”驻扎在克拉马托尔斯克的乌克兰第93机械化旅新闻官雷巴科娃周一告诉CNN。

“到了傍晚和清晨，几乎没人出门，”她说。“白天，到处都是持枪歹徒……每个人都带着步枪，出门喝咖啡带着步枪，去商店也带着步枪，等等，因为现在无人机无处不在，你永远不知道会发生什么。他们随时都可能发动袭击。”

第93机械化旅

美国总统特朗普的特使史蒂夫·威特科夫及其女婿贾里德·库什纳周日首次访问基辅，但并未取得重大突破。乌克兰在东部战线许多地区日益处于被动局面。这与今年春天基辅解放的土地多于失去的土地相比，形势发生了巨大变化。

美国冲突观察机构战争研究所 (ISW) 的俄罗斯问题分析师珍妮·奥尔姆斯特德表示，虽然不太可能迅速取得突破，但情况已经发生了转变。

她说：“（俄罗斯人）正在继续进行渗透行动，并缓慢地向斯拉维扬斯克和克拉马托尔斯克推进，也在科斯蒂安蒂尼夫卡推进，但速度非常缓慢。”

据 ISW 称，俄罗斯在 8 月份推进或渗透到乌克兰约 124 平方公里（47.8 平方英里）的领土，大约是去年同期占领领土面积的四分之一。

ISW 计算得出，按照目前的速度，俄罗斯军队最早也要到 2032 年才能占领顿涅茨克——如果他们最终能够占领的话。

这种进展速度极其缓慢，而且给莫斯科带来了巨大的代价。西方情报机构估计，俄罗斯每月损失约4万名士兵——相当于每平方公里约有340人伤亡。

但对乌克兰来说不幸的是，俄罗斯正在逐步削弱东部的所谓“堡垒带”，这是一条由四个工业城市组成的带状地带，构成了乌克兰东部防御的支柱。

这条地带对于保卫顿巴斯地区残余势力至关重要，对乌克兰东部和中部其他地区也同样重要。其地形和人口中心，以及连接它们的公路和铁路，在西部易守难攻、人口稀少的平原地区之间形成了一道天然屏障。令人担忧的是，如果俄罗斯突破了这条屏障，它就能以更快的速度深入乌克兰腹地。

这就是为什么乌克兰在过去几年里投入大量资源来加强构成这条防线的城市：斯拉维扬斯克、克拉马托尔斯克、德鲁日基夫卡和科斯蒂扬蒂尼夫卡。

过去四年半以来，这条要塞带逐渐瓦解。其最南端的据点科斯蒂安蒂尼夫卡如今已基本丧失了防御能力。俄军已耗费近一年时间试图夺取该地，尽管基辅北部仍有乌克兰抵抗力量，但该地对基辅的作战价值早已荡然无存。

迭戈·埃雷拉·卡塞多/阿纳多卢/盖蒂图片社

这是前线反复出现的主题。俄军无法通过快速进攻占领城镇，同时又能保持大部分基础设施完好无损。相反，莫斯科发动的是缓慢而残酷的战争，最终使这些地方变得不适宜居住。

俄军花了九个月的时间才攻占附近的巴赫穆特市，又用了近两年时间才拿下另一个补给中心波克罗夫斯克。奥尔姆斯特德说，等到他们最终完全控制这两座城市时，它们大多已被摧毁，对乌克兰的战略价值也荡然无存。

第93届机械化信贷

即便如此，俄罗斯取得的每一点小进展都蕴含着巨大的宣传潜力。

俄罗斯总统普京多次明确表示，包括上周末在内，他不会放弃在乌克兰的战争目标，其中包括占领顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克地区的全部领土。俄罗斯目前已占领顿涅茨克约81%的领土和几乎整个卢甘斯克地区。莫斯科在4月份曾表示已完全占领卢甘斯克，但基辅方面则称仍控制着部分地区。

据克里姆林宫助手兼谈判代表尤里·乌沙科夫称，普京告诉维特科夫和库什纳，俄罗斯军队在战场上取得了“切实进展”，并将很快实现其目标。

CNN尚未能证实这一说法，但这凸显了俄罗斯信息战的重要性。据报道，普京曾表示，他预计俄军将在年底前夺取这两个地区的剩余部分（此前他曾14次设定最后期限，但均已过去）。

据乌克兰控制的顿涅茨克地区军事管理局称，近9.3万名乌克兰人，其中包括4800多名儿童，仍然生活在基辅控制的地区。但那里的生活正变得越来越艰难。亨纳季·尤金是“白天使”特警队的一名警官，该特警队负责协助军方从前线村庄撤离平民。尤金表示，现在他的警员根本无法驾车进入多布罗皮利亚镇及其周边村庄。

尤金告诉CNN：“军方正在徒步疏散民众，我们的人员在距离多布罗皮利亚约10公里的地方接应他们——这是我们能到达的最近地点。否则，在那里疏散完全不可能；整个地区都布满了地雷，无人机的数量也多得惊人。”

顿涅茨克地区警察

雷巴科娃告诉 CNN，克拉马托尔斯克仍然有很多平民居住，但她表示预计情况会发生变化。

“生活仍在继续。（当局）还没有实施宵禁……这（对东部更远的城镇）造成了巨大影响——所有商家都开始撤离。他们说很快就会实施宵禁，”她说道。

克拉马托尔斯克长期以来一直是驻守东部战线的乌克兰部队的战略后方据点，也是疲惫不堪的士兵在执行下一个任务前可以休整几天的地方。但如今，这已不再可行。

“这里每天都遭到炮击。制导炸弹，密集的炮火，一次八枚，”雷巴科娃说。“就在昨晚，他们炸了我以前住的房子。我们几个月前搬走了，现在那里已经完全被毁了。”

随着俄罗斯不断向这些城市逼近，剩余的居民担心莫斯科正在为未来的袭击做准备。

奥尔姆斯特德说：“他们正在为进攻斯拉维扬斯克创造条件，并准备战场。”

“他们确实在努力削弱该地区乌克兰的后勤和防御能力，他们让乌克兰军队难以将后勤物资运送到前沿阵地和城市中。”

CNN的Niamh Kennedy对本报道亦有贡献。

编者按：本文已更新。