Last dance? Inside Lula’s strategy to win a fourth presidency in Brazil

The left-wing union leader has won three presidential terms so far. His push for a fourth will see him confront concerns over crime and the economy.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva waves to supporters during a rally in Sao Bernardo do Campo, Brazil, on August 16 [Andre Penner/AP Photo] Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva waves to supporters during a rally in Sao Bernardo do Campo, Brazil, on August 16 [Andre Penner/AP Photo]

Sao Bernardo do Campo, Brazil – By mid-morning, the bright August sun emerged from the clouds and illuminated the May 1 Stadium in the industrial city of Sao Bernardo do Campo, on the outskirts of Sao Paulo, Brazil.

It was here, in 1979, that a bearded union leader from Brazil’s impoverished northeast stood on top of a borrowed bar table to address 60,000 striking metalworkers.

The event came to symbolise a democratic awakening in defiance of the country’s military dictatorship.

Forty-seven years later – and after seven presidential bids, a spell in prison and three terms in the presidency – Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva returned to the spot where his political career began.

Only this time, he was the president, and launching a campaign to seek an unprecedented fourth term in the country's top political office.

On October 4, Brazilians will head to the polls to vote for their next leader. If no candidate receives an outright majority, the race will proceed to a run-off.

At age 80, this will likely be Lula's last dance. In a seeming wink to that fact, Lula walked onto the stadium's stage to the song Sirius, famous as the pregame anthem for the Chicago Bulls' last championship season.

If he wins, he will surpass his own record as the oldest elected president in Brazilian history.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is facing a polarised electorate in his bid for a fourth non-consecutive term as president [Adriano Machado/Reuters] Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is facing a polarised electorate in his bid for a fourth non-consecutive term as president [Adriano Machado/Reuters]

Facing an ascendant right wing

Brazilian society, of course, has changed significantly since Lula’s days on the picket line.

A conservative wave has swept over South America, with right-wing presidential candidates winning elections in Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru over the last 12 months.

A factor in that wave has been the administration of United States President Donald Trump, which has offered backing to right-wing leaders across the Western Hemisphere.

In June, Trump shared an article on social media describing Brazil’s upcoming presidential vote as the “next major test” in his project of “making the Americas great again”.

Workers rally on November 13, 1989, in support of then-presidential candidate Luis Inacio Da Silva [Reuters]

However, analysts in Brazil warn that this right-wing sweep has more to do with anti-incumbency and domestic factors rather than any region-wide ideological shift.

Amid anger over crime and economic struggles, electorates across South America have displayed a hunger for change, said Leonardo Paz, a political science professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), an educational institute.

“The left was in government in these countries, so of course the change they chose came from the right," Paz added.

He pointed to Argentina, where libertarian Javier Milei rose to power in 2023.

“The previous government had caused a horrible inflation crisis, and even though Milei was a highly unorthodox candidate, he was seen as the only option to break that cycle," Paz explained.

By the same token, Paz doubts that a Lula victory in October will spark a leftward shift on the continent.

“Political conditions in South America are tied much more to provincial matters in each country and global economic dynamics," he said. “If a Lula win influences even one South American country to elect a left-wing government, that would be a surprise.”

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva waves to supporters at Sao Bernardo do Campo, Brazil, on August 16 [Andre Penner/AP Photo] Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva waves to supporters at Sao Bernardo do Campo, Brazil, on August 16 [Andre Penner/AP Photo]

'A matter of affordability'

Still, Lula is hoping to upset expectations for left-wing leaders in the region, many of whom have been weighed down by economic crises.

Under Lula, Brazil has posted promising economic results. The annual growth in Brazil's gross domestic product (GDP) has averaged just under 3 percent during Lula's current term, exceeding expectations.

By the end of 2025, the unemployment rate sat at 5.1 percent, the country’s lowest rate on record.

The strong numbers, however, have not translated into public optimism. Climbing debt, high interest rates and Brazil's increasing cost of living have created widespread malaise.

Some analysts have compared the conditions in Brazil with the situation facing the US in 2024, when the country voted Trump back into the White House.

“It’s a matter of affordability,” said Mario Sergio Lima, Brazil analyst at Medley Advisors, a policy advisory firm.

“It’s not just how much things cost. It’s about people not being able to pay for them. Fewer and fewer people are becoming homeowners, there’s a huge demand for income, and people feel like they’re just stuck.”

To answer those stresses, the Lula government has embarked on a costly programme of credit expansion, income tax exemptions, fuel subsidies and debt forgiveness.

“The government abandoned the idea of winning over people’s hearts. It’s trying to win over their wallets," said Oswaldo Amaral, a public opinion researcher at the University of Campinas.

Amaral explained that the working-class base for Lula's Workers' Party has transformed. Fewer people belong to unions. More work in the informal sectors.

While roughly 65 percent of workers have formal employment, the rest are largely independent contractors, business owners and members of the gig economy, one of the fastest-growing groups.

Some 2.1 million people earn a living through digital platforms for services such as ride-hailing and food delivery.

These workers, according to Amaral, tend to be sceptical of the traditional labour rights movement.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva launched his re-election bid at the May 1 Stadium in Sao Bernardo do Campo, which was the site of the mass workers' demonstrations in 1979 and 1980 [Alexandre Meneghini/Reuters] Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva launched his re-election bid at the May 1 Stadium in Sao Bernardo do Campo, which was the site of the mass workers' demonstrations in 1979 and 1980 [Alexandre Meneghini/Reuters]

Projecting experience

But by drawing on his long history as a labour leader, Amaral said Lula is seeking to underscore qualities his closest competitor cannot: experience and longevity.

Heading into October's election, Lula faces his greatest challenge from a 45-year-old first-term senator, Flavio Bolsonaro.

The senator earned his party's nomination after getting the endorsement of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, in December.

“It’s as if he’s saying, ‘I’m not a daddy’s boy. I’ve got 50 years of experience,'" Amaral said of Lula's strategy.

The rivalry between Lula and the Bolsonaro family has deep roots. During the last presidential election, in 2022, Lula narrowly beat Jair Bolsonaro by 1.8 percentage points.

It was the closest presidential election in Brazilian history.

The Bolsonaro family, however, has cultivated close ties with the Trump White House. As a result, foreign policy, usually peripheral to Brazilian elections, has assumed unusual importance this year.

Trump has injected himself into Brazilian politics throughout Lula's third term, painting the Brazilian government as censoring right-wing voices.

He has also sought to use economic leverage to end the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted of plotting a coup after losing to Lula in the 2022 presidential race.

Last year, Trump announced 50 percent tariffs on a range of Brazilian exports, as penalty for the "government of Brazil’s treatment of former President Bolsonaro". He denounced the trial as "political persecution".

But critics say Lula transformed the tariffs into a popularity boost, successfully pinning the blame on the Bolsonaro family.

A July 2025 poll, conducted after the tariffs were announced, showed his approval ratings cresting above 50 percent for the first time in about nine months.

Those tariffs were ultimately rolled back. But in June this year, Trump unveiled new 25 percent tariffs on certain Brazilian products, citing "unfair trading practices" under Lula.

Paz, the political science professor, believes Lula is unlikely to wring any significant benefit at the ballot box from these tariffs, unless he can tie the extra taxes to conditions facing the average Brazilian consumer.

“For example, if the government spots a specific good or service that has become unaffordable due to these tariffs, it can push the blame onto Trump and the Bolsonaro family," Paz said.

"That could win Lula some more undecided voters.”

A supporter holds a cutout of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at the May 1 Stadium in Sao Bernardo do Campo, Brazil, on August 16 [Alexandre Meneghini/Reuters] A supporter holds a cutout of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at the May 1 Stadium in Sao Bernardo do Campo, Brazil, on August 16 [Alexandre Meneghini/Reuters]

Confronting fears of violence

Where Lula arguably struggles the most, though, is with public security.

Polls show that violence is the top concern for Brazilian voters. The research firm Quaest found that 33 percent of voters ranked it as their primary concern, compared with 15 percent for the second-highest issue, the economy.

Flavio Bolsonaro has sought to wield those fears of crime as an advantage.

At his campaign launch in Rio de Janeiro last month, the senator argued that the Lula government had “surrendered sovereignty” to criminal gangs like the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and the Comando Vermelho.

He has also voiced his support for efforts under Trump to name Brazilian gangs "foreign terrorist organisations".

While Lula has promised to create a dedicated Public Security Ministry, Flavio Bolsonaro has pledged more hardline measures, including the construction of five maximum-security “mega-prisons”.

“Repressive strategies are flashier,” said Lima, the Brazil analyst. “If you arrest a bunch of criminals, if you kill a bunch of criminals, even if it doesn’t fix anything, it gives the impression that something is being done.”

While Lula holds a lead in pre-election polls, this year’s vote is expected to go down to the wire.

A September survey from Datafolha found that, in a run-off, Lula receives 46 percent support to Bolsonaro's 43 percent.

But the two candidates also carry high rejection rates. Polls show that about 50 percent of voters refuse to vote for Bolsonaro, roughly the same percentage that refuses to vote for Lula.

That leaves the two frontrunners with a narrow pool of undecided voters.

Mayra Goulart, a political scientist at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, said that Brazil’s political arena is essentially split in half, “between the increasingly radical right and moderate progressives".

Her research suggests that this year's election will be decided not by the mobilisation of party bases, but by those entirely disconnected from politics. That small fraction of voters will be key in so tight a race.

“The portion of the population that isn’t interested in politics, be that because they are working all day or feel like politics has never benefitted them, they will be crucial to winning the election," Goulart said.

"Whoever manages to get this slice of the electorate on their side will win.”

A Lula re-election victory could provide a rare bright spot for Latin America's battered left wing. A loss, however, would mean continent-wide alignment with the Trump White House – at least, until the next major election.

这位左翼工会领袖迄今已连任三届主席。他若想竞选第四届，将面临犯罪和经济方面的严峻挑战。

8月16日，巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦在巴西圣贝尔纳多-杜坎普的一次集会上向支持者挥手致意。[安德烈·彭纳/美联社照片]

巴西圣贝尔纳多-杜坎普——上午十点左右，八月灿烂的阳光穿透云层，照亮了位于巴西圣保罗郊区工业城市圣贝尔纳多-杜坎普的五月一日体育场。

1979 年，一位来自巴西贫困的东北部、留着胡子的工会领袖站在这里，站在借来的酒吧桌子上，向 6 万名罢工的金属工人发表讲话。

这一事件象征着民主觉醒，反抗该国的军事独裁统治。

47 年后——在七次竞选总统、一次入狱服刑和三届总统任期之后——巴西的路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦回到了他政治生涯开始的地方。

只不过这一次，他是总统，并且发起了一场竞选活动，力求史无前例地第四次担任该国最高政治职位。

10月4日，巴西民众将前往投票站选举下一任领导人。如果没有候选人获得绝对多数票，则将进行第二轮投票。

80岁高龄的卢拉很可能将告别赛场。似乎也暗示了这一点，卢拉在走上体育场舞台时，播放了《天狼星》（Sirius）这首歌，这首歌曾是芝加哥公牛队上一次夺冠赛季的赛前队歌。

如果他获胜，他将打破自己保持的巴西历史上最年长当选总统的纪录。

路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦竞选第四个非连续总统任期，面临着选民两极分化的局面。[阿德里亚诺·马查多/路透社]

面对日益崛起的右翼势力。

当然，自卢拉当年在纠察线上抗议以来，巴西社会已经发生了巨大的变化。

过去 12 个月里，一股保守主义浪潮席卷南美洲，右翼总统候选人在玻利维亚、智利、哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔和秘鲁的选举中获胜。

这股浪潮的一个因素是美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的政府，该政府一直支持西半球各地的右翼领导人。

6 月，特朗普在社交媒体上分享了一篇文章，将巴西即将举行的总统选举描述为他“让美洲再次伟大”计划中的“下一个重大考验”。

1989年11月13日，工人们举行集会，支持当时的总统候选人路易斯·伊纳西奥·达席尔瓦。[路透社]

然而，巴西的分析人士警告说，此次右翼浪潮更多地与反执政情绪和国内因素有关，而不是任何区域性的意识形态转变。

南美洲各地的选民对犯罪和经济困境感到愤怒，他们渴望变革。瓦加斯基金会（FGV）政治学教授莱昂纳多·帕斯（Leonardo Paz）表示，该基金会是一家教育机构。

“这些国家当时都是左派执政，所以他们选择的变革当然来自右派，”帕兹补充道。

他以阿根廷为例，自由主义者哈维尔·米莱在2023年上台执政。

帕兹解释说：“前任政府造成了一场可怕的通货膨胀危机，尽管米莱是一位非常非正统的候选人，但他被认为是打破这一恶性循环的唯一选择。”

同样，帕斯怀疑卢拉在10月份的胜利是否会引发非洲大陆的左倾趋势。

他说：“南美洲的政治局势更多地与各国的地方事务和全球经济动态相关。如果卢拉的胜选能够促使哪怕一个南美国家选出左翼政府，那都将令人惊讶。”

8月16日，巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦在巴西圣贝尔纳多-杜坎普向支持者挥手致意。[安德烈·彭纳/美联社照片]

“这是个经济承受能力的问题”

不过，卢拉希望打破人们对该地区左翼领导人的预期，他们中的许多人都深受经济危机的困扰。

在卢拉的领导下，巴西取得了令人瞩目的经济成果。卢拉本届任期内，巴西国内生产总值（GDP）年均增长率略低于3%，超出预期。

到 2025 年底，失业率将达到 5.1%，这是该国历史上最低的失业率。

然而，这些强劲的经济数据并未转化为公众的乐观情绪。不断攀升的债务、高利率以及巴西日益增长的生活成本，都造成了普遍的低迷情绪。

一些分析人士将巴西的现状与美国在 2024 年面临的情况进行了比较，届时美国将再次投票支持特朗普入主白宫。

“这是个经济承受能力的问题，”政策咨询公司 Medley Advisors 的巴西分析师马里奥·塞尔吉奥·利马 (Mario Sergio Lima) 说。

“问题不仅仅在于物价高低，还在于人们是否负担得起。拥有住房的人越来越少，收入需求巨大，人们感觉自己被困住了。”

为了应对这些压力，卢拉政府启动了一项代价高昂的计划，包括扩大信贷、免除所得税、提供燃油补贴和减免债务。

“政府放弃了赢得民心的想法，转而试图赢得民众的钱包，”坎皮纳斯大学民意调查研究员奥斯瓦尔多·阿马拉尔说。

阿马拉尔解释说，卢拉领导的工人党的工人阶级基础已经发生了变化。加入工会的人越来越少，从事非正规部门工作的人越来越多。

虽然约 65% 的劳动者有正式工作，但其余劳动者大多是独立承包商、企业主和零工经济成员，而零工经济是增长最快的群体之一。

约有 210 万人通过数字平台提供诸如网约车和外卖等服务谋生。

阿马拉尔表示，这些工人往往对传统的劳工权利运动持怀疑态度。

路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦在圣贝尔纳多-杜坎普的五一体育场启动了他的连任竞选活动。该体育场曾是1979年和1980年大规模工人示威游行的地点。[亚历山大·梅内吉尼/路透社]

项目经验

但阿马拉尔表示，卢拉凭借其作为劳工领袖的悠久历史，试图强调他最接近的竞争对手所不具备的品质：经验和资历。

在即将到来的10月大选中，卢拉面临的最大挑战来自45岁的第一任参议员弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗。

这位参议员在去年12月获得其父亲、前总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗的支持后，赢得了党内提名。

阿马拉尔谈到卢拉的策略时说：“他好像在说，‘我不是个靠爹的乖乖仔。我有50年的经验。’”

卢拉与博索纳罗家族之间的宿怨由来已久。在2022年的上次总统选举中，卢拉以1.8个百分点的微弱优势击败了博索纳罗。

这是巴西历史上最接近的总统选举。

然而，博索纳罗家族与特朗普白宫建立了密切联系。因此，外交政策——通常与巴西大选关系不大——今年变得异常重要。

在卢拉的第三个任期内，特朗普一直干预巴西政治，将巴西政府描绘成审查右翼声音的政府。

他还试图利用经济影响力来结束对雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗的起诉。博尔索纳罗在 2022 年总统大选中输给卢拉后，被判犯有策划政变罪。

去年，特朗普宣布对一系列巴西出口商品加征50%的关税，以惩罚“巴西政府对待前总统博索纳罗的方式”。他谴责这场审判是“政治迫害”。

但批评人士称，卢拉将关税转化为提升支持率的契机，成功地将责任归咎于博索纳罗家族。

2025 年 7 月，在关税宣布后进行的一项民意调查显示，他的支持率在大约九个月以来首次超过 50%。

这些关税最终被取消。但今年6月，特朗普以卢拉执政期间存在“不公平贸易行为”为由，宣布对某些巴西产品加征25%的新关税。

政治学教授帕兹认为，除非卢拉能够将额外的税收与巴西普通消费者面临的状况联系起来，否则他不太可能通过这些关税在选举中获得任何重大利益。

帕兹说：“例如，如果政府发现某种商品或服务由于这些关税而变得难以负担，就可以把责任推卸给特朗普和博索纳罗家族。”

“这或许能为卢拉赢得更多摇摆选民的支持。”

8月16日，在巴西圣贝尔纳多-杜坎普的五一体育场，一名球迷手持巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦的纸板人像。[亚历山大·梅内吉尼/路透社]

直面暴力恐惧

不过，卢拉最不擅长的领域或许是公共安全。

民调显示，暴力问题是巴西选民最关心的问题。市场调研公司Quaest发现，33%的选民将暴力列为他们最关心的问题，而将经济列为第二大问题的比例仅为15%。

弗拉维奥·博索纳罗试图利用民众对犯罪的恐惧来为自己谋利。

上个月，这位参议员在里约热内卢的竞选启动仪式上声称，卢拉政府已经将主权“拱手让给了”像第一首都司令部（PCC）和红色司令部这样的犯罪团伙。

他还表示支持特朗普政府将巴西黑帮定性为“外国恐怖组织”的努力。

卢拉承诺设立专门的公共安全部，而弗拉维奥·博索纳罗则承诺采取更强硬的措施，包括建造五座最高安全级别的“巨型监狱”。

“镇压策略更引人注目，”巴西分析人士利马说。“如果你逮捕了一批罪犯，或者杀死了一批罪犯，即使这并不能解决任何问题，也能给人一种正在采取行动的假象。”

虽然卢拉在选前民调中领先，但预计今年的选举结果将非常接近，直到最后一刻才见分晓。

Datafolha 9 月份的一项调查发现，如果进行第二轮投票，卢拉的支持率为 46%，博尔索纳罗的支持率为 43%。

但这两位候选人的反对率也很高。民调显示，约有50%的选民拒绝投票给博索纳罗，拒绝投票给卢拉的比例也大致相同。

这样一来，两位领先候选人所剩的未决选民群体就非常有限了。

里约热内卢联邦大学政治学家玛雅·古拉特表示，巴西的政治舞台基本上分裂成两半，“一边是日益激进的右翼，另一边是温和的进步派”。

她的研究表明，今年的选举结果并非取决于政党基本盘的动员，而是取决于那些与政治完全脱节的选民。在如此胶着的选情中，这部分选民的投票至关重要。

“那些对政治不感兴趣的人群，无论是因为他们整天忙于工作，还是觉得政治从未给他们带来任何好处，他们对赢得选举都至关重要，”古拉特说。

“谁能争取到这部分选民的支持，谁就能获胜。”

卢拉若连任，或将为饱受打击的拉丁美洲左翼带来一线曙光。然而，若败选，则意味着整个拉丁美洲将与特朗普的白宫结盟——至少在下一次重大选举之前是如此。