Pakistan slashes military modernization fund by 20%

ISLAMABAD — Pakistan’s military modernization it taking a hit, with the government slashing the budget for the Armed Forces Development Program by 72 billion rupees (U.S. $346 million) — a decrease of about 20%.

The move helps meet a demand by the International Monetary Fund that the country achieve a primary budget surplus of 153 billion rupees, or 0.2% of the national output for the new financial year in order to revive an IMF bailout package.

The government allocated 363 billion rupees for the AFDP modernization effort when it presented the fiscal 2022-2023 budget on June 10 . The revised AFDP figure — 291 billion rupees — was made public by the Finance Ministry after the National Assembly approved the budget.

Analyst and former Australian defense attache to Islamabad, Brian Cloughley, believes the current economic crisis has left Pakistan with no room to maneuver.

“The IMF had to be strict, and one obvious and not unwelcome avenue for [Prime Minister] Shehbaz Sharif is to reduce the defense allocation, although the development program appears to be the only specific target sector,” he said.

Among other adjustments to the FY22-23 federal budget, the defense fund will now receive an additional 41 billion rupees; operationally speaking, this could help the military as it faces economic inflation.

This the second year the AFDP budget was cut in response to an IMF demand. The FY21-22 budget was cut from 340 billion rupees to 270 rupees.

Defense News asked the Ministry of Defence Production, which handles defense equipment development and procurement, how the latest funding decrease would affect AFDP, but the ministry did not respond by press time.

“It is unlikely that this will have a drastic impact on Pakistan’s overall defense preparedness, and it certainly will not affect nuclear weapons,” Cloughley said. “There will be visible and publicized shelving of some programs, and no doubt military staffs are working hard to determine and recommend action in areas that will have minimal effects on strategic plans.”

Defense economics analyst Fida Muhammad Khan of the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics think tank, thinks the Air Force’s modernization plans could be vulnerable, while the larger Army wields enough influence to escape major damage.

“The Air Force has to stay up to date, fleets need to be battle-ready, and that has a high price,” he said. “These cuts will impact the JF-17 [fighter jet] program , [Pakistan Aeronautical Complex] projects and many more sophisticated weapon programs.”

“Maintaining one jet requires more resources than equipping infantrymen,” he added, noting that modern aerial combat is essentially “fought beyond visual range” and therefore expensive.

Instead of targeting the AFDP fund, he said, the government should after “revisisted” its Public Sector Development Program, meant to encourage private investment by promoting skills among the labor force and improving infrastructure.

With what’s essentially a tax break on high-end tobacco products, done by raising the tax rate band, the government is set to lose out on billions of rupees that were expected to boost revenue from the industry — from 150 billion rupees to 225 billion rupees.

Nevertheless, Khan said, the military’s needs will be met.

“There is no question or doubt about that. So this is a cut that can be tolerated for once.”

Usman Ansari is the Pakistan correspondent for Defense News.

伊斯兰堡——巴基斯坦的军事现代化进程正遭受打击，政府削减了武装部队发展计划的预算 720 亿卢比（3.46 亿美元），降幅约为 20%。

此举有助于满足国际货币基金组织的要求，即该国在新财年实现 1530 亿卢比的基本预算盈余，相当于国民产出的 0.2%，以重启国际货币基金组织的救助计划。

政府在6月10日提交2022-2023财年预算时，为农业发展计划（AFDP）现代化工作拨款3630亿卢比。国民议会批准该预算后​​，财政部公布了修订后的AFDP拨款金额——2910亿卢比。

分析人士、澳大利亚前驻伊斯兰堡国防武官布莱恩·克劳利认为，当前的经济危机使巴基斯坦没有回旋余地。

他说：“国际货币基金组织必须采取严格措施，而对于（总理）谢赫巴兹·谢里夫来说，一个显而易见且并非不受欢迎的途径是削减国防拨款，尽管发展计划似乎是唯一具体的目标领域。”

在 2022-2023 财年联邦预算的其他调整中，国防基金将额外获得 410 亿卢比；从实际操作层面来看，这有助于军队应对经济通胀。

这是应国际货币基金组织的要求，农业发展基金预算连续第二年被削减。2021-2022财年的预算从3400亿卢比削减至2700亿卢比。

《防务新闻》询问负责国防装备研发和采购的国防生产部，最新一轮资金削减将如何影响武装部队发展计划（AFDP），但截至发稿时，该部尚未作出回应。

克劳利表示：“这不太可能对巴基斯坦的整体国防准备产生重大影响，当然也不会影响核武器。一些项目将会被公开搁置，毫无疑问，军方正在努力确定并建议在对战略计划影响最小的领域采取行动。”

巴基斯坦发展经济研究所的国防经济分析师菲达·穆罕默德·汗认为，空军的现代化计划可能比较脆弱，而规模更大的陆军拥有足够的影响力，可以避免遭受重大损失。

他说：“空军必须保持技术先进，机队必须随时准备作战，而这需要付出高昂的代价。这些削减将影响JF-17战斗机项目、巴基斯坦航空工业集团的项目以及许多其他更先进的武器项目。”

“维护一架喷气式飞机所需的资源比装备步兵所需的资源更多，”他补充道，并指出现代空战本质上是“在视距外进行的”，因此成本很高。

他表示，政府不应该将目标对准AFDP基金，而应该“重新审视”其公共部门发展计划，该计划旨在通过提高劳动力技能和改善基础设施来鼓励私人投资。

通过提高税率档次，政府实际上对高端烟草产品进行了减税，这将导致政府损失数十亿卢比的收入，这些收入原本有望从该行业增加 1500 亿卢比到 2250 亿卢比。

不过，汗表示，军方的需求将会得到满足。

“这一点毋庸置疑。所以，这次裁员是可以接受的。”

乌斯曼·安萨里是《防务新闻》驻巴基斯坦记者。