Further rate hikes hinge on chip boom's impact on inflation: BOK

The Bank of Korea said the semiconductor export boom’s effect on inflation will help determine whether it raises rates further, while keeping additional tightening open. It said solid growth and above-target inflation may persist, and it will watch Middle East tensions, household debt, housing prices, and exchange-rate volatility. The BOK also said back-to-back 25-basis-point hikes in July and August brought the policy rate to 3 percent.

The BOK raised its policy rate by 25 basis points in July and August, bringing it to 3 percent.

Deputy Gov. Park Jong-woo said the October rate decision will be made after comprehensively reviewing the data available before the meeting.

Hana Bank raised its one-year Hana One Deposit rate to 3.3 percent, and Woori Bank raised its WON Plus Deposit rate to 3.4 percent.

The BOK said Korean stock volatility from January through July had a standard deviation of 4.1 percent, the highest among the 30 largest stock markets by market capitalization.

The central bank said single-stock leveraged ETFs tied to Samsung Electronics and SK hynix had contributed to heightened volatility.

Published Sep 10, 2026 3:42 pm KST

Updated Sep 10, 2026 3:52 pm KST

Major banks raise deposit rates following central bank's recent rate hikes

Bank of Korea Gov. Shin Hyun-song bangs the gavel during a Monetary Policy Board meeting at the central bank’s headquarters in Seoul, Aug. 27. Joint Press Corps

The Bank of Korea (BOK) on Thursday said the impact of the semiconductor export boom on inflation will be one of the key factors in deciding whether to raise interest rates further, keeping the door open to additional monetary tightening.

In its September Monetary Policy Report, the central bank said it will need to closely monitor changes in domestic and external conditions before determining the timing and pace of additional rate hikes, given that solid growth and above-target inflation are expected to persist for some time.

"From the perspective of the real economy, the key considerations are whether renewed tensions in the Middle East will push up cost pressures again, and how much and how quickly the strength of semiconductor exports will spill over into domestic demand and demand-side inflation," the report said.

The report stressed the need to closely assess the lagged effects of its past rate increases, warning that weaker sectors could face heightened financial strain and calling for a tailored mix of macroeconomic policies to buffer the impact.

On financial stability, the central bank said it will continue to watch housing prices and household debt in the Seoul metropolitan area, along with the risk of renewed exchange rate volatility as the U.S. Federal Reserve shifts its monetary policy stance.

The BOK raised its policy rate by 25 basis points in July and August, bringing it to 3 percent. The rare back-to-back rate hikes came as the central bank sought to preemptively address inflationary pressures and financial stability risks.

The central bank, however, remained cautious about whether it would raise rates again at its next rate-setting meeting in October.

"The decision will be made after comprehensively reviewing the data available before the meeting," BOK Deputy Gov. Park Jong-woo said at a press briefing when asked about the possibility of an October rate hike.

Park said the current policy rate is already around the upper end of the BOK's estimated neutral rate — the level that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy. But he noted that the central bank is reassessing its estimate of the neutral rate, making it difficult to make any assumptions at this stage.

ATMs of various banks are seen at a building in Seoul, Aug.16. Yonhap

The BOK's recent rate hikes have also pushed up deposit rates at commercial banks.

Hana Bank raised the one-year rate on its flagship Hana One Deposit by 0.1 percentage point to 3.3 percent Thursday, while Woori Bank raised the rate on its WON Plus Deposit by 0.2 percentage point to 3.4 percent.

KB Kookmin Bank is offering 3.2 percent on its KB Star Deposit, while Shinhan Bank and NH NongHyup Bank are offering 3.3 percent and 3.25 percent rates on their respective deposit products.

Regarding stock market volatility, meanwhile, the BOK also raised concerns that the chip boom could fuel volatility as the market has become increasingly concentrated in semiconductor stocks.

According to the report, volatility in Korean stocks has remained elevated in recent months.

The standard deviation of daily stock returns stood at 4.1 percent from January through July, the highest among the 30 largest stock markets by market capitalization. The figure was roughly twice the levels recorded in Japan and Taiwan, at 2.1 percent and 2 percent.

The central bank said that the single-stock leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to Samsung Electronics and SK hynix had contributed to the heightened volatility.

"The sharp increase in leveraged ETF investment, driven by expectations of sustained stock price gains, has also contributed to greater stock market volatility from the supply-and-demand side," the BOK said.

The latest assessment marks a change in the BOK's previous view from its June financial stability report, when it said "the impact of single-stock leveraged ETFs on the broader market seems limited given their market capitalization and trading volumes."

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韩国央行表示，半导体出口繁荣对通胀的影响将有助于决定是否进一步加息，同时保留进一步收紧货币政策的可能性。央行称，稳健的经济增长和高于目标水平的通胀可能会持续，并将密切关注中东局势、家庭债务、房价和汇率波动。韩国央行还表示，7月和8月连续两次加息25个基点，使政策利率达到3%。

韩国央行在7月和8月将政策利率上调了25个基点，使其达到3%。

韩国副知事朴钟佑表示，10月份的利率决定将在会前对现有数据进行全面审查后做出。

韩亚银行将一年期韩亚一存款利率上调至 3.3%，友利银行将韩元Plus存款利率上调至 3.4%。

韩国央行表示，1月至7月韩国股市波动率的标准差为4.1%，在市值最大的30个股票市场中最高。

央行表示，与三星电子和SK海力士挂钩的个股杠杆ETF加剧了市场波动。

发布于2026年9月10日下午3:42（韩国标准时间）

更新于2026年9月10日下午3:52（韩国标准时间）

继央行近期加息后，各大银行纷纷提高存款利率。

8月27日，韩国央行行长申铉松在首尔央行总部举行的货币政策委员会会议上敲响法槌。（联合新闻社）

韩国央行周四表示，半导体出口繁荣对通胀的影响将是决定是否进一步加息的关键因素之一，这为进一步收紧货币政策敞开了大门。

该央行在9月份的货币政策报告中表示，鉴于稳健的增长和高于目标水平的通胀预计将持续一段时间，因此在确定进一步加息的时机和速度之前，需要密切关注国内外形势的变化。

报告称：“从实体经济的角度来看，关键在于中东地区紧张局势的再次升级是否会再次推高成本压力，以及半导体出口的强劲势头会在多大程度上、多快地蔓延到国内需求和需求侧通胀中。”

该报告强调需要密切评估过去加息的滞后影响，警告称较弱的行业可能面临更大的财务压力，并呼吁制定有针对性的宏观经济政策组合来缓冲影响。

关于金融稳定，央行表示将继续关注首尔都市圈的房价和家庭债务，以及美联储改变货币政策立场可能带来的汇率再次波动风险。

韩国央行在7月和8月连续两次加息，累计加息25个基点，使利率达到3%。此次罕见的连续加息旨在提前应对通胀压力和金融稳定风险。

然而，央行对于是否会在10月份的下一次利率决策会议上再次加息仍持谨慎态度。

韩国央行副行长朴钟佑在新闻发布会上被问及10月份是否有可能加息时表示：“将在全面审查会议前可获得的数据后做出决定。”

朴槿惠表示，目前的政策利率已经接近韩国央行估计的中性利率上限——中性利率是指既不刺激也不抑制经济的利率水平。但他指出，央行正在重新评估中性利率的估计值，因此现阶段很难做出任何假设。

8月16日，首尔一栋大楼内可见多家银行的自动取款机。（韩联社）

韩国央行近期加息也推高了商业银行的存款利率。

韩亚银行周四将其旗舰产品韩亚一号存款的一年期利率上调0.1个百分点至3.3%，而友利银行则将其韩元Plus存款的利率上调0.2个百分点至3.4%。

KB国民银行的KB Star存款利率为3.2%，而新韩银行和NH农协银行的存款产品利率分别为3.3%和3.25%。

与此同时，韩国央行也对股市波动表示担忧，认为芯片行业的繁荣可能会加剧股市波动，因为市场越来越集中于半导体股票。

报告显示，近几个月来，韩国股市的波动性一直居高不下。

1月至7月，每日股票收益率的标准差为4.1%，在市值排名前30的股票市场中最高。这一数字约为日本和台湾（分别为2.1%和2%）的两倍。

央行表示，与三星电子和SK海力士挂钩的单只杠杆交易所交易基金（ETF）加剧了市场波动。

韩国央行表示：“受股价持续上涨预期的推动，杠杆ETF投资大幅增加，也从供需方面加剧了股市波动。”

最新的评估标志着韩国央行此前在6月份金融稳定报告中的观点发生了改变。当时韩国央行表示，“鉴于单只杠杆ETF的市值和交易量，它们对整体市场的影响似乎有限。”

韩国央行预测，韩国人均国民总收入将在2026年首次超过4万美元。

韩国央行表示，9月份通胀将有所缓解，但潜在压力依然存在。

韩国央行将基准利率上调至3%，通胀困境持续存在

韩国央行将基准利率上调至3%，家庭和个体经营者债务引发担忧