The AI boom and tariff uncertainty are pushing copper prices to record highs

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Tightening global copper supply, robust demand from the AI boom and uncertainty over tariffs are all whipping up a frenzy for the red metal. It’s sending prices soaring to their highest levels ever.

Copper futures traded in New York settled at $6.89 per pound on Wednesday, their highest level on record. In London, copper futures – measured by the metric ton – are also at record highs.

Known for being highly conductive, copper has wide applications across electronics, housing and autos. The red metal is a critical part of industry and construction, and its ascent to record highs could send higher prices rippling through to businesses.

Copper prices fell 5% on Thursday, pulling back from record highs, but analysts say fundamentals are in place for higher prices. Copper prices are up more than 15% this year, outpacing gold, silver, bitcoin and the S&P 500. Over the past 12 months, copper prices are up 40%.

There is strong demand for copper from electric vehicle manufacturing to the infrastructure for powering AI data centers. Prices had already been on the rise in recent years as EVs ballooned in popularity in Asia and Europe. Now, the AI boom is adding to demand.

At the same time, there are concerns about lackluster copper production. Global copper mine output declined by 1.1% in the first half of 2026, according to preliminary data from the International Copper Study Group.

Poor weather and deteriorating mine quality are contributing to production woes. Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, saw a 6.6% decline in output in the first half of the year, according to ICSG.

To be sure, there isn’t a shortage of refined copper. There’s a global surplus of refined copper. But declines in mine production are raising concerns about tightening supply at a time when demand remains solid.

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President Donald Trump last year implemented a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products. But traders are on watch for a potential 15% tariff on refined copper products, which would impact the market more directly.

Concerns about tariffs are creating distortions in the global market and contributing to higher prices, analysts say.

Massive amounts of copper have been shipped to the United States to try and get ahead of potential tariffs. The surge has been so large that it’s draining copper supply elsewhere, making copper less accessible globally and sending prices higher.

“People are stockpiling metal because they’re not sure whether Trump is going to impose copper tariffs or not,” Edward Meir, commodity analyst at Marex, told CNN. “If he imposes copper tariffs, people want to make sure they have enough metal to tide them over. So, there’s been a mad rush.”

While the supply-demand imbalance is in the background, the recent surge in copper prices is largely attributable to the tariff uncertainty, analysts say.

As the price of copper has rallied sharply, traders, hedge funds and other speculators tend to pile into the market to try and make a profit, Meir said. That leaves room for a potential drop in price if momentum goes in reverse, but the fundamental outlook is set to keep prices elevated.

Copper can be found in everything from cars to computers to the wiring in buildings. The rise to all-time highs means higher prices for businesses. The further copper prices rise, the more impactful it will become.

The cost of copper wire and cable, as measured by the Producer Price Index, rose about 18% year-over-year in July, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The impact on consumers depends on just how much copper is used in the products they purchase. How much consumers feel the pinch also depends on how much of the cost is passed through by businesses, according to Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING.

“What’s most important is that copper’s longer-term outlook remains supported by constrained supply and growing demand from electrification, grid investment and AI-related infrastructure,” Manthey said. “These structural trends have tightened the market and provided a strong fundamental backdrop.”

乔·雷德尔/盖蒂图片社

全球铜供应趋紧、人工智能热潮带来的强劲需求以及关税的不确定性，共同引发了铜价的狂热上涨，使其飙升至历史最高水平。

周三，纽约铜期货结算价为每磅6.89美元，创历史新高。伦敦铜期货（以公吨计价）也创下历史新高。

铜以其高导电性而闻名，在电子、房屋和汽车等领域有着广泛的应用。这种红色金属是工业和建筑业的关键组成部分，其价格飙升至历史新高可能会对各行各业产生连锁反应。

周四铜价下跌5%，从历史高位回落，但分析师表示，铜价上涨的基本面依然稳固。今年以来，铜价已累计上涨超过15%，涨幅超过黄金、白银、比特币和标普500指数。过去12个月，铜价累计上涨40%。

从电动汽车制造到人工智能数据中心的基础设施建设，对铜的需求十分强劲。近年来，随着电动汽车在亚洲和欧洲的迅速普及，铜价已经持续上涨。如今，人工智能的蓬勃发展进一步推高了铜的需求。

与此同时，铜产量疲软也令人担忧。国际铜业研究小组的初步数据显示，2026年上半年全球铜矿产量下降了1.1%。

恶劣天气和矿山质量下降加剧了生产困境。据国际铜业统计协会（ICSG）的数据显示，全球最大的铜生产国智利今年上半年的产量下降了6.6%。

诚然，精炼铜并不短缺，全球精炼铜供应过剩。但矿山产量下降引发了人们对供应趋紧的担忧，尤其是在需求依然强劲的情况下。

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去年，唐纳德·特朗普总统对半成品铜制品征收了50%的关税。但交易员们正密切关注可能对精炼铜制品征收的15%关税，这将对市场产生更直接的影响。

分析人士表示，对关税的担忧正在扭曲全球市场，并导致物价上涨。

为了抢占市场先机应对潜在的关税，大量铜被运往美国。这波进口潮规模巨大，导致其他地区的铜供应紧张，全球铜供应减少，价格上涨。

“人们囤积金属是因为他们不确定特朗普是否会征收铜关税，”Marex的大宗商品分析师爱德华·梅尔告诉CNN。“如果他征收铜关税，人们想确保自己有足够的金属储备以应对。所以，出现了抢购潮。”

分析人士表示，尽管供需失衡是潜在因素，但近期铜价飙升主要归因于关税的不确定性。

梅尔表示，随着铜价大幅上涨，交易员、对冲基金和其他投机者纷纷涌入市场试图获利。如果市场动能逆转，铜价可能出现下跌，但基本面前景依然支撑铜价高位。

从汽车、电脑到建筑物的电线，铜的应用无处不在。铜价飙升至历史新高，意味着企业将面临更高的成本。铜价上涨幅度越大，其影响也将越大。

根据美国劳工统计局的数据，以生产者价格指数衡量的铜线电缆成本在7月份同比上涨了约18%。

对消费者的影响取决于他们购买的产品中铜的使用量。荷兰国际集团（ING）大宗商品策略师伊娃·曼西表示，消费者感受到的压力程度还取决于企业将多少成本转嫁给了消费者。

曼西表示：“最重要的是，铜的长期前景依然受到供应受限和电气化、电网投资以及人工智能相关基础设施需求增长的支撑。这些结构性趋势收紧了市场，并提供了强劲的基本面。”