Trump promises $5,000 payouts if GOP wins midterms: Can the US afford it?

US President Donald Trump speaks at the Republican National Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas, on September 9, 2026 [Evan Vucci/Reuters]

United States President Donald Trump has promised a $5,000 payout for every adult US citizen if the Republican Party holds onto its narrow control of both houses of Congress at the upcoming midterm elections in November.

Trump headlined a large Republican convention in Dallas, Texas, this week, in a bid to energise Republican supporters amid poor polling that indicates there could be a surge of support for the Democratic Party across the country.

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But at a time of rising energy prices, inflation, an ongoing and deeply unpopular war with Iran and rising national debt, the move has prompted questions about whether the world’s biggest economy can actually afford to pay what has been dubbed the “Trump dividend” to 270 million adult Americans – and whether it would even be legal to do so.

What has Trump promised?

“Because we’ve done so well and because our country is making so much money, that only I can make you this promise,” Trump told Republican supporters at Wednesday’s convention.

To loud applause and chants of “USA, USA”, he said: “I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000,” as long as the Republican Party keeps its majorities in both the House of Representatives and the US Senate.

“If the Republicans win, you win with us,” he declared.

Trump did not elaborate on how or when the payments would be made – or how they would be funded – stipulating only that people would be required to spend it in the US. “We don’t want you going to Canada to spend the money.”

How much would this proposal cost?

There are up to 270 million adult US citizens, meaning the dividend could cost $1.3 trillion before the administrative costs for the implementation and processing of the payments are taken into account.

Vice President JD Vance suggested the money would come from revenues raised by Trump’s trade tariffs.

He told Fox News: “What the president is talking about is fundamentally a dividend for American workers. We’re taking in an extraordinary amount of revenue because the president of the United States is actually standing up to both foreign companies, but also foreign countries who’ve been taking advantage of America’s workers. I don’t think it’s a controversial idea.”

But the US-based Tax Policy Center projects that tariffs will raise about $1.7 trillion “in fiscal years 2026 through 2036, with $177bn raised in 2026”.

A “Trump dividend” of $5,000 for every US adult, therefore, amounts to about three-quarters of the total revenue projected across 11 years.

Most of that money has not yet been collected, as it is an economic forecast only. Additionally, it does not take into consideration the burden of countertariffs imposed by other countries on US exports.

So how would the US pay for this?

Ultimately, it would have to be funded by national debt, analysts say.

This means the money Trump is promising to the American people would add to the massive mountain of debt the state has borrowed from domestic and foreign investors alike. That extra borrowing drives up the total interest payments the government has to make. That bill will ultimately have to be paid back by the American people.

Currently, the US is paying about $1.1 trillion annually to service its debt, slightly more than it spends on defence.

US national debt hit $40 trillion in August, the highest it’s ever been. The Congressional Budget Office initially projected it would not reach this level for another two years.

Total US debt has been climbing by $1 trillion every five months since 2020 and has doubled since 2017, according to the Peter G Peterson Foundation, a US-based nonpartisan organisation focused on fiscal policy and the national debt. The COVID-19 pandemic – and now the war on Iran – accelerated the debt.

Public debt borrowed from domestic and foreign investors makes up 80 percent – roughly $32 trillion – of the gross debt, according to data from the Department of the Treasury.

About $21 trillion of this public debt is owed domestically, to a variety of creditors including the Federal Reserve ($4.528 trillion), which buys and sells Treasury securities to influence federal interest rates and manage the money supply, according to analysis by the Peter G Peterson Foundation.

Other creditors are mutual funds ($5.195 trillion), pension funds ($1.135 trillion), state and local governments ($1.636 trillion), commercial banks and depository institutions ($2.083 trillion) and other corporate and individual lenders ($6.660 trillion).

Is Trump’s dividend promise legal?

Federal laws in the US prohibit any payments which are designed to influence the way someone votes.

Criminal defence lawyer John W Day told The Associated Press news agency that Trump’s campaign promise does appear to be legal, however: “It’s not a payment to individuals to try to get them to vote in a particular way,” he said. The distinction lies in not handing someone money first and then asking them to vote in a specific way, he added.

Day also notes the fact that the payout would be for everyone, no matter which individuals may have voted. The difficulty might be less about the legal aspect of it and more about whether Congress is likely to approve the payout. A one-off payment to American citizens would have to be approved by Congress. “It doesn’t just exist out there in a slush fund for the president to hand out. So Congress would have a say in whether or not it gets authorised,” Day said.

Has Trump proposed such things before?

Trump has previously promised cash payments. After the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) was set up under Elon Musk at the start of Trump’s second term, Americans were told they would receive part of the money saved by slashing red tape, government workforce reductions and the termination of government contracts.

When DOGE was established, Musk said he expected to cut “at least $2 trillion” from government spending, without identifying a timeframe for doing it. He later lowered that to $1 trillion.

In June 2025, DOGE claimed to have cut $180bn in government costs, although this figure has been disputed . No payments have reportedly been transferred to citizens.

Another dividend payment was promised to citizens in November 2025, when Trump wrote on social media that trillions had been collected in tariff revenues: “A dividend of at least $2,000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.”

There have been no reports of such payouts following this promise, however.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普于2026年9月9日在德克萨斯州达拉斯举行的共和党全国中期选举大会上发表讲话。[Evan Vucci/路透社]

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普承诺，如果共和党在即将到来的11月中期选举中保住对国会两院的微弱控制权，将向每位成年美国公民发放5000美元的奖金。

本周，特朗普在德克萨斯州达拉斯市出席了一场大型共和党大会，试图在民调显示民主党在全国范围内可能获得大量支持的情况下，激励共和党支持者。

共和党全国代表大会开幕之际，三位共和党人就特朗普的经济政策存在分歧（名单1/3）。

特朗普誓言将成为美国中期选举的核心：共和党大会要点（共3条，此为第2条）

特朗普的第三项提议（共三项）：如果共和党赢得众议院和参议院，每位美国人将获得5000美元。

但在能源价格上涨、通货膨胀、与伊朗持续不断的、极不受欢迎的战争以及国家债务不断增加的当下，此举引发了人们的质疑：世界最大经济体是否真的有能力向 2.7 亿美国成年人支付所谓的“特朗普红利”，以及这样做是否合法。

特朗普承诺了什么？

“因为我们做得如此出色，因为我们的国家赚了很多钱，所以只有我才能向你们做出这个承诺，”特朗普在周三的共和党大会上对支持者们说道。

在热烈的掌声和“美国！美国！”的欢呼声中，他说道：“只要共和党在众议院和参议院都保持多数席位，我将向美国每位成年公民发放 5000 美元的红利。”

他宣称：“如果共和党人获胜，你们和我们一起就是赢家。”

特朗普没有详细说明这些款项将如何或何时发放，也没有说明资金来源，只是规定人们必须把钱花在美国境内。“我们不希望你们去加拿大花这笔钱。”

这项方案需要多少费用？

美国成年公民多达 2.7 亿，这意味着在考虑实施和处理付款的行政成本之前，这项分红可能要花费 1.3 万亿美元。

副总统JD Vance暗示，这笔钱将来自特朗普贸易关税带来的收入。

他告诉福克斯新闻：“总统所说的，从根本上来说，是给美国工人的红利。我们之所以能获得如此巨额的收入，是因为美国总统正在挺身而出，对抗那些剥削美国工人的外国公司和外国势力。我认为这并非一个有争议的观点。”

但总部位于美国的税务政策中心预测，关税将在“2026 至 2036 财年”筹集约 1.7 万亿美元，其中 2026 年将筹集 1770 亿美元。

因此，每位美国成年人获得 5000 美元的“特朗普红利”相当于 11 年预计总收入的四分之三左右。

由于这只是一项经济预测，大部分资金尚未到位。此外，它也没有考虑其他国家对美国出口产品征收的反制关税所带来的负担。

那么美国将如何支付这笔费用呢？

分析人士表示，最终这笔资金将不得不来自国家债务。

这意味着特朗普承诺给美国人民的资金将进一步加重美国政府从国内外投资者那里借贷的巨额债务。这笔额外的借款将推高政府必须支付的总利息。最终，这笔账将由美国人民来偿还。

目前，美国每年支付约 1.1 万亿美元用于偿还债务，略高于其国防开支。

美国国债在8月份突破40万亿美元，创历史新高。国会预算办公室最初预测，国债还需要两年时间才能达到这一水平。

据总部位于美国的无党派组织彼得·G·彼得森基金会（Peter G. Peterson Foundation）称，自2020年以来，美国债务总额每五个月增加1万亿美元，自2017年以来已翻了一番。该基金会专注于财政政策和国家债务问题。新冠疫情以及如今的伊朗战争加速了债务的增长。

根据财政部的数据，从国内外投资者借入的公共债务占总债务的 80%——约 32 万亿美元。

根据彼得·G·彼得森基金会的分析，这笔公共债务中约有 21 万亿美元是欠国内各种债权人的，其中包括美联储（4.528 万亿美元），美联储买卖国债以影响联邦利率和管理货币供应量。

其他债权人包括共同基金（5.195 万亿美元）、养老基金（1.135 万亿美元）、州和地方政府（1.636 万亿美元）、商业银行和存款机构（2.083 万亿美元）以及其他公司和个人贷款人（6.660 万亿美元）。

特朗普的分红承诺合法吗？

美国联邦法律禁止任何旨在影响他人投票方式的支付行为。

刑事辩护律师约翰·W·戴告诉美联社，特朗普的竞选承诺似乎合法，但他表示：“这并非向个人支付费用以试图让他们以某种方式投票。” 他补充说，区别在于，不能先给某人钱，然后再要求他们以某种方式投票。

戴伊还指出，这笔款项将发放给所有人，无论他们是否投过票。难点或许不在于法律层面，而在于国会是否会批准这笔款项。向美国公民一次性发放款项必须经国会批准。“这笔钱并非总统可以随意支配的秘密基金。因此，国会对是否授权发放这笔款项拥有发言权，”戴伊说道。

特朗普以前提出过类似提议吗？

特朗普此前曾承诺发放现金补贴。在特朗普第二个任期之初，埃隆·马斯克设立了政府效率部（DOGE），当时美国民众被告知，他们将获得通过削减繁文缛节、精简政府人员和终止政府合同所节省的部分资金。

马斯克在创立狗狗币时曾表示，他预计将削减“至少2万亿美元”的政府开支，但并未给出具体的时间表。后来，他将这一数字下调至1万亿美元。

2025年6月，狗狗银行声称已削减了1800亿美元的政府开支，但这一数字存在争议。据报道，尚未有任何款项发放给公民。

2025 年 11 月，特朗普在社交媒体上发文称，已征收数万亿美元的关税收入，并承诺向公民支付另一笔红利：“每人至少将获得 2000 美元的红利（不包括高收入人群！）”。

然而，目前还没有关于兑现这一承诺的报道。