Apache going down near Oman a sign of air combat evolution, analysts warn

With any air left in lungs likely heaving from adrenaline, the crew members may have blown bubbles, feeling which way the small pockets of air traveled against their face. Submerged in darkness and feeling around a cockpit becoming a watery tomb, the direction of the bubbles may have told the disoriented helicopter crew the direction of the only thing that mattered: up.

An attack helicopter went down off the coast of Oman this month after a Shahed drone engaged with the aircraft. Though the Pentagon said that its two crew members were rescued by an unmanned surface vessel hours later, public details surrounding the incident remain sparse.

The military’s investigation may ultimately determine what happened between the Apache and drone, but for experts and analysts, the event is a snapshot into how warfare is changing: attack helicopters, once the apex predators of the battlefield, must learn to navigate an ecosystem crowded with unmanned systems that are smaller, cheaper and deadlier than ever before.

The interaction itself seemed an anomaly.

Iranian Shahed-136 drones are typically programmed to fly to set coordinates before launch, which makes them adept at striking targets that do not move, according to Kelly Campa, Middle East Team Lead at the Institute for the Study of War.

“A Shahed hitting a helicopter is highly unusual,” Campa said, noting that Russia has increasingly used remotely guided Shahed variants capable of striking moving targets, like trains.

Campa added that Russia, however, generally has not used those variants to attack aircraft without additional modifications like small missiles, and Iran has not publicly demonstrated similar capabilities.

The unusual nature of the incident — and the scarcity of publicly available information — has made drawing definitive conclusions difficult.

Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, said several explanations for the Apache’s downing are plausible.

The helicopter may have collided with the drone while attempting an intercept, interacted with a more advanced variant than the baseline Shahed design or encountered a drone with a proximity fuse, which detonates near a target instead of on contact.

“The fact that both crew members survived and appear to have made a controlled water landing argues against a direct impact with the warhead,” she said, because if a drone’s warhead blasted into the Apache and detonated, the damage would likely be catastrophic and unsurvivable.

U.S. Army AH-64E Apache pilots submerge in a simulated aircraft as it begins to roll over during water survival training. (Brian Harris/U.S. Army)

To some analysts, the more pressing question is not what happened between the Apache and drone, but what the incident says about the helicopter’s place in modern warfare.

Apaches, heavily armed to destroy tanks and support ground troops, have historically occupied a fearsome skyward position atop the battlefield hierarchy. However, experts say the proliferation of increasingly capable unmanned systems is challenging that dominance.

Doug Birkey, the executive director of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, said the incident is a warning sign after operating in relatively permissive environments during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

“This should be the last fight where we use a lot of legacy constructs, technologies, etc.,” he said, calling the conflict a “transition” into a different way of war.

“It’s time to move on to some newer capabilities and ways of warfighting,” he said.

The Army is moving in that direction, and in March, the service received its first pilot-optional Black Hawk helicopter for testing.

Birkey also pointed to the need to couple crewed-capabilities with uncrewed assets.

“Could you partner that Apache with an uncrewed asset to net similar effect?” he asked, adding that the military could “keep the human cognition and some of those mission capabilities proximate, but you don’t put them in the immediate line of fire.”

Those changes may already be taking shape. One expert sees the early June incident as evidence that developments associated with the war in Ukraine may be appearing elsewhere.

“It was the Shahed being used as anti-helicopter,” said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine colonel and senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “That had happened in Ukraine. It had not happened in the Gulf.”

Apache helicopters routinely fly missions over and around the Strait of Hormuz, Cancian said, attacking Iranian speedboats and shooting down drone threats.

The helicopters can still do those things, he added, but doing so may require more controls — like potentially moving the aircraft in groups — and less freedom than in the past.

For crews, that means operating in an environment where the margin for error is shrinking and the risks are heightened.

One helicopter pilot who underwent underwater escape training recalled being taught to expect disorientation and complete darkness while trying to egress from an inverted cabin after an aircraft goes down in water and rolls over.

Before the training, Kurt Rosell described the experience as his “biggest fear.”

And while exactly how the two rescued crew members survived remains undisclosed, they certainly trained for the risk of going down over water: a scenario with a water-filled cabin where there was only one certainty: bubbles always rise.

Eve Sampson is a reporter and former Army officer. She has covered conflict across the world, writing for The New York Times, The Washington Post and The Associated Press.

机组人员肺里仅存的空气很可能已被肾上腺素剧烈地挤压着，他们或许会吹泡泡，感受着小气泡拂过脸庞的方向。在黑暗中摸索着，驾驶舱仿佛变成了一座水下坟墓，泡泡的方向或许能告诉迷失方向的直升机机组人员唯一重要的方向：向上。

本月，一架武装直升机在阿曼海岸附近坠毁，此前一架“沙赫德”无人机与其交火。尽管五角大楼称，两名机组人员在数小时后被一艘无人水面舰艇救起，但有关该事件的公开细节仍然很少。

军方的调查最终可能会确定阿帕奇直升机和无人机之间发生了什么，但对于专家和分析人士来说，这一事件反映了战争正在发生的变化：攻击直升机曾经是战场上的顶级掠食者，如今必须学会在一个充斥着无人系统的生态系统中生存，这些无人系统比以往任何时候都更小、更便宜、更致命。

这次互动本身似乎就有些反常。

据战争研究所中东团队负责人凯利·坎帕称，伊朗的 Shahed-136 无人机通常会预先设定好飞行坐标，然后再进行发射，这使得它们能够有效地打击静止的目标。

坎帕表示：“沙赫德导弹击中直升机的情况非常罕见。”他指出，俄罗斯越来越多地使用能够打击火车等移动目标的遥控制导沙赫德导弹变型。

坎帕补充说，然而，俄罗斯通常不会使用这些改进型飞机攻击没有加装小型导弹等额外改装的飞机，而伊朗也没有公开展示过类似的能力。

该事件的特殊性质，以及公开信息的匮乏，使得得出确切结论变得困难。

史汀生中心高级研究员凯利·格里科表示，阿帕奇战机被击落的原因有几种合理的解释。

直升机可能在试图拦截无人机时与无人机相撞，或者与比基本型“沙赫德”无人机更先进的变型无人机发生交互，或者遇到装有近炸引信的无人机（这种无人机会在目标附近引爆，而不是在接触时引爆）。

“两名机组人员幸存下来，而且似乎实现了可控水上迫降，这表明弹头并非直接撞击目标，”她说，因为如果无人机的弹头击中阿帕奇直升机并引爆，造成的损害很可能是灾难性的，而且无法幸免。

美国陆军AH-64E“阿帕奇”武装直升机飞行员在水上生存训练中，随着模拟飞机开始翻滚而潜入水中。（布莱恩·哈里斯/美国陆军）

一些分析人士认为，更紧迫的问题不是阿帕奇直升机和无人机之间发生了什么，而是这一事件说明了直升机在现代战争中的地位。

阿帕奇武装直升机装备精良，能够摧毁坦克并支援地面部队，历史上一直占据着战场上令人生畏的空中优势。然而，专家指出，日益强大的无人系统的涌现正在挑战阿帕奇的统治地位。

米切尔航空航天研究所执行主任道格·伯基表示，在伊拉克和阿富汗战争期间相对宽松的环境下开展行动之后，这起事件是一个警告信号。

“这应该是我们最后一次使用大量传统结构、技术等的战斗了，”他说道，并将这场冲突称为向另一种战争方式的“过渡”。

“是时候发展一些新的能力和作战方式了，”他说。

陆军正朝着这个方向发展，今年 3 月，陆军接收了第一架可选择配备飞行员的黑鹰直升机进行测试。

伯基还指出，需要将有人驾驶能力与无人驾驶资产结合起来。

他问道：“能否将阿帕奇直升机与无人装备配合使用，以达到类似的效果？”他还补充说，军方可以“保持人类认知能力和部分任务能力的接近，但不能让他们直接处于交火之中。”

这些变化或许已经开始显现。一位专家认为，6月初发生的事件表明，与乌克兰战争相关的事态发展可能正在其他地方出现。

“那是‘沙赫德’反直升机导弹，”退役海军陆战队上校、战略与国际研究中心高级顾问马克·坎西安说。“这种情况在乌克兰发生过，但在海湾地区没有发生过。”

坎西安说，阿帕奇直升机经常在霍尔木兹海峡上空和周围执行任务，攻击伊朗快艇并击落无人机威胁。

他补充说，直升机仍然可以做这些事情，但这样做可能需要更多的控制——例如可能需要成组移动飞机——并且比过去更少的自由。

对于船员来说，这意味着在容错空间越来越小、风险越来越高的环境中作业。

一位接受过水下逃生训练的直升机飞行员回忆说，他曾被教导要做好失去方向感和完全黑暗的准备，以便在飞机坠入水中翻滚后，从倒置的机舱中逃生。

在接受训练之前，库尔特·罗塞尔将这种经历描述为他“最大的恐惧”。

虽然两名获救船员究竟是如何幸存下来的仍未公开，但他们肯定接受过沉入水中的风险训练：在这种船舱充满水的情况下，唯一可以确定的是：气泡总是会上升。

伊芙·桑普森是一名记者，也是一名前陆军军官。她曾报道过世界各地的冲突，为《纽约时报》、《华盛顿邮报》和美联社撰稿。