Even if it’s real, Trump’s new Ukraine push is already being undermined by events

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Events since the United States revived its Ukraine peace bid say more about its chances than the sunny rhetoric that accompanies it.

President Donald Trump told reporters Wednesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin “is wanting to make a deal.” He added that if Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky “is wanting to make a deal, that’d be very nice.”

But there’s nothing nice about the reality in Eastern Europe.

On Wednesday, a Russian jet-propelled drone breached Moldovan airspace and delayed the departure of a plane taking Zelensky to Norway.

And after Trump’s envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff left Kyiv after a peace shuttle visit that followed a trip to Moscow, Putin’s missiles and drones on Tuesday ended a three-day halt to attacks with a new onslaught that killed five people .

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The Moldovan incident didn’t appear to be a direct threat to Zelensky — although the country’s US ambassador, Vladislav Kulminski, told CNN’s Jim Sciutto the incursion by a Russian surveillance drone was likely “not an accident.” And the raids on Kyiv were just the latest act of perpetual horror inflicted on civilians.

These incidents underscore the vicious brutality of a war that CNN reported Tuesday is costing Russia some 40,000 troops each month , citing Western intelligence agencies. The conflict is also showing an alarming new propensity to spread beyond its borders amid rising fears of a NATO-Russia clash in Europe.

So any serious, sincere effort by the Trump administration to reengage in diplomacy after its attention was dragged away by the Iran war would be welcome. The president’s critics mock his hyperbolic claims to have ended multiple wars. But a fair peace in Ukraine would be a monumental achievement.

Still, public signs out of the US diplomatic duo’s meetings with Putin and Zelensky offer little hope that the entrenched factors that extended the war for more than four years have eased. And a sequence of off-key remarks and gestures raise doubts about their grasp on the nature of the war, Russia’s motives and an approach that mirrors a repeatedly failed real estate transaction.

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In Moscow, Witkoff’s deferential and glowing comments to Putin about how their meetings would be a highlight to remember in retirement were startling given the Russian leader’s ruthless assault on Ukrainians and warnings among US allies of Kremlin covert sabotage threatening their territory.

Kushner later spoke about the need to find a “win-win” situation for both Putin and Zelensky that would convince them stop fighting.

This might be seen as the pragmatic touch of a dealmaker who must force each side to make distasteful choices in service of peace.

But delivering a “win” to Russia would validate its choice to wage an illegal and unprovoked war to obliterate a neighbor’s territory, history and culture. And Putin restated that the “root causes” of the conflict still need to be addressed. That’s Russia’s code for ending Ukraine’s sovereignty and demilitarization while Moscow demands land in eastern provinces its troops are yet to conquer — all of which would be impossible for Zelensky to accept.

Trump’s comments, meanwhile, reflect nearly two years of blithe and demonstrably disproven assessments of a war that keeps getting worse. “The holdup is two people hating each other,” he told reporters at Andrews Air Force base — a reference to Putin and Zelensky that ignored the complex political and historical factors cited by the Russian leader when he launched the war. “I know about deals, and these are two people that are tired of fighting. It could happen.”

Despite his optimism, the prospect of new and effective US diplomacy appears as elusive as the US delivering on Trump’s apparent offer earlier in the summer to allow Ukraine to license the manufacture of Patriot anti-missile interceptors.

There are also fresh doubts about US motives amid opacity surrounding what exactly happened in the meetings with Putin, which took place amid already deep intrigue over a recent visit to Russia by CIA Director John Ratcliffe .

Various leaks have suggested the US spy chief warned Moscow that the Ukraine war was going poorly for Russia, and to not even think about moving on any NATO territory. But it’s impossible to know for sure what is going on between Moscow and Washington — or between Putin and Trump, who had a telephone conversation this week.

The US president’s history of flattering the Russian leader has long cast doubt on the administration’s motives on Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Russia sent hints after the meeting about future economic opportunities between the two nations, renewing fears in Europe that Trump is more interested in deals, perhaps related to Russian mineral and natural resources, than a just peace in Ukraine.

And any sense that the US is an honest broker was undermined recently when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent partly blamed Ukraine’s attacks on Russian infrastructure, alongside the Iran war, for high oil prices. This reinforced impressions the US sees Ukraine’s self-defense as an irritant rather than a legitimate right.

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On Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Colombia that there was a chance over the next few weeks to “maybe reach a conclusion there that that’s acceptable to both sides.” But he conceded that a lot of work needed to be done.

Most wars end eventually. And the terrible toll of this one for both sides may eventually weigh on negotiations. Ukraine has not only survived but is showing an increasing capacity to project force inside Russia. But Russia has also made recent advances on the battlefield, CNN reported on Wednesday — though its casualty figures are so extreme that even Putin may have to take notice.

Could the war’s shifting dynamics unlock flexibility that has so far been elusive?

Or, more likely, are Ukraine’s civilians destined for another cold, bloody winter as Russia pounds their apartment blocks and power plants?

A genuine peace effort is desperately needed, and the fact that Kushner and Witkoff visited Kyiv for the first time during the war last week generated some favorable statements from Zelensky’s government.

But there’s a pattern in Trump’s diplomacy. After consultations with Putin, Washington tends to produce a proposal that strongly reflects Russia’s goals. When Zelensky balks, the administration shows frustration, and subsequent, watered-down versions of the plan become unacceptable to the Kremlin.

Until that changes, hopes for a new US initiative must remain reserved.

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自美国重启乌克兰和平进程以来发生的一系列事件，比伴随而来的乐观言辞更能说明和平进程的前景。

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周三告诉记者，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京“想要达成协议”。他还补充说，如果乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基“也想达成协议，那就太好了”。

但东欧的现实一点也不美好。

周三，一架俄罗斯喷气式无人机侵犯了摩尔多瓦领空，导致泽连斯基飞往挪威的飞机起飞延误。

在特朗普的特使贾里德·库什纳和史蒂夫·威特科夫结束了对基辅的和平访问（此前他们还访问了莫斯科）后，普京的导弹和无人机于周二结束了三天的袭击停止期，发动了新的袭击，造成五人死亡。

Genya Savilov/法新社，盖蒂图片社

摩尔多瓦事件似乎并未对泽连斯基构成直接威胁——尽管该国驻美大使弗拉迪斯拉夫·库尔明斯基告诉CNN记者吉姆·夏托，俄罗斯侦察无人机的入侵“很可能并非意外”。而对基辅的袭击，只不过是持续不断的针对平民的恐怖行径中的最新一起。

这些事件凸显了这场战争的残酷性。据美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）周二报道，援引西方情报机构的数据，这场战争每月导致俄罗斯损失约4万名士兵。此外，随着人们日益担忧北约与俄罗斯在欧洲发生冲突，这场冲突也呈现出令人担忧的蔓延至境外的新趋势。

因此，特朗普政府在伊朗战争分散了注意力之后，任何认真、真诚地重新投入外交的努力都值得欢迎。总统的批评者嘲笑他夸大其词地声称结束了多场战争。但乌克兰的公正和平将是一项意义非凡的成就。

然而，美国外交官二人与普京和泽连斯基会晤后公开流露出的迹象表明，导致这场战争持续四年多的根深蒂固的因素似乎并未有所缓和，这令人难以抱有希望。一系列不得要领的言论和举动也让人怀疑他们对战争本质、俄罗斯动机的理解，以及他们采取的策略——这种策略如同屡次失败的房地产交易。

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在莫斯科，维特科夫对普京毕恭毕敬、热情洋溢地表示，他们的会面将成为他退休后值得铭记的亮点。考虑到俄罗斯领导人对乌克兰人的残酷攻击，以及美国盟友警告称克里姆林宫的秘密破坏活动威胁着他们的领土，这些言论令人震惊。

库什纳后来谈到，需要找到一个对普京和泽连斯基都有利的“双赢”局面，以说服他们停止战争。

这或许可以看作是谈判者务实的做法，为了和平，必须迫使各方做出令人不快的选择。

但如果俄罗斯取得“胜利”，就等于为其发动非法且无端的战争、摧毁邻国领土、历史和文化的行为背书。普京重申，冲突的“根源”仍需解决。这实际上是俄罗斯终止乌克兰主权和非军事化的委婉说法，同时莫斯科还要求乌克兰吞并其军队尚未占领的东部省份——泽连斯基绝不可能接受这一切。

与此同时，特朗普的言论反映了他近两年来对这场不断恶化的战争轻率且已被证明是错误的评估。“战争的僵局在于两个人互相憎恨，”他在安德鲁斯空军基地对记者说——他指的是普京和泽连斯基，却忽略了俄罗斯领导人发动战争时所提及的复杂政治和历史因素。“我了解交易，而这两个人都厌倦了战争。这并非不可能。”

尽管他持乐观态度，但美国开展新的、有效的外交活动的前景似乎仍然遥不可及，就像美国兑现特朗普今年夏天早些时候提出的允许乌克兰获得“爱国者”反导拦截器生产许可的提议一样。

由于与普京的会晤究竟发生了什么仍不明朗，人们对美国的动机也产生了新的怀疑。而就在此前不久，美国中央情报局局长约翰·拉特克利夫访问俄罗斯，引发了人们的浓厚兴趣。

各种泄露的消息表明，美国情报局长曾警告莫斯科，乌克兰战争对俄罗斯不利，并告诫俄罗斯不要妄想侵犯任何北约领土。但我们无法确切了解莫斯科和华盛顿之间，或者普京和特朗普之间究竟发生了什么——尽管他们本周进行了电话交谈。

美国总统过往对俄罗斯领导人的奉承之举，长期以来使人们对本届政府在乌克兰问题上的动机产生怀疑。

与此同时，会后俄罗斯暗示了两国未来可能的经济合作机会，这再次引发了欧洲的担忧，即特朗普对可能与俄罗斯矿产和自然资源相关的交易更感兴趣，而不是对乌克兰的公正和平感兴趣。

最近，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特将高油价的部分原因归咎于乌克兰袭击俄罗斯基础设施以及伊朗战争，这进一步削弱了美国作为公正调解人的任何印象。这加深了人们的印象，即美国将乌克兰的自卫视为一种干扰，而非一项合法权利。

Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images

周三，国务卿马可·卢比奥在哥伦比亚告诉记者，未来几周内有机会“或许能达成双方都能接受的结论”。但他承认，还有很多工作要做。

大多数战争最终都会结束。而这场战争给双方造成的惨重伤亡，最终可能会对谈判产生不利影响。乌克兰不仅幸存了下来，而且在俄罗斯境内投射力量的能力也在不断增强。但据美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）周三报道，俄罗斯近期也在战场上取得了进展——尽管其伤亡人数如此之高，甚至连普京都不得不重视。

战争形势的变化能否带来迄今为止难以获得的灵活性？

或者，更有可能的是，随着俄罗斯炮轰乌克兰的公寓楼和发电厂，乌克兰平民是否注定要迎来又一个寒冷血腥的冬天？

迫切需要真正的和平努力，库什纳和维特科夫上周在战争期间首次访问基辅，这一事实促使泽连斯基政府发表了一些有利的声明。

但特朗普的外交策略存在一种模式。在与普京磋商后，华盛顿往往会提出一份强烈体现俄罗斯目标的方案。一旦泽连斯基表示反对，美国政府就会表现出沮丧，随后提出的缩水版方案又会令克里姆林宫无法接受。

在情况改变之前，对美国新举措的希望仍需保留。