Even a cooler inflation report may not be enough to keep the Fed from raising rates next week

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Americans have already been feeling the pain at the gas pump as the war with Iran has pushed up prices to record highs for this time of year. But the bigger concern is what happens next.

Persistently higher energy prices – especially for diesel – could continue to push up the cost of freight and become inescapable for businesses, making groceries and other consumer goods more expensive.

That’s why the Federal Reserve is watching Friday’s August Consumer Price Index report even more closely than usual. The latest report is expected to show that inflation cooled slightly on an annual basis — but economists also expect prices to have picked up on a monthly basis. Any hint that price pressures remain stubborn or have broadened across the economy could be enough to convince Fed officials to hike interest rates at next week’s monetary policy meeting.

Economists polled by FactSet expect inflation for the 12 months ended in August to come in at 3.3%, a slight deceleration from July’s 3.4% rate. On a monthly basis, though, price increases are expected to accelerate to 0.4%, compared to July’s 0.1% pace.

When stripping out food and energy prices, a measure of underlying inflation known as “core” inflation is expected to remain relatively tame. Economists expect core prices to rise by 0.2% in August, unchanged from July, bringing the annual rate down to 2.4% from the prior month.

But the headline and core numbers may not tell the full story.

Wholesale inflation as measured by the Producer Price Index accelerated sharply in August, according to the latest report, released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices for goods alone rose 1.1% last month, a significant shift from July’s 0.4% decline. More than three-quarters of that increase was driven by a 4.2% monthly rise in energy prices, the BLS said.

PPI is seen as an important indicator for how consumer prices could move in coming months, since businesses are typically the first to see price increases. But higher costs aren’t necessarily passed along to shoppers, since many businesses absorb some of the increase themselves.

That could become harder to do if businesses are squeezed by higher tariffs at the same time that elevated energy costs are pushing up the cost of transportation.

If you ship a package right now with a carrier like UPS, you’ll pay a fuel surcharge that’s adjusted weekly, based on average fuel prices tracked by the government.

Big corporations, however, often negotiate longer-term contracts with carriers that lock in their transportation rates, shielding them from some of the immediate impact when fuel and other transportation costs rise.

For instance, General Mills CEO Jeffrey Harmening said Wednesday that the company is seeing overarching transportation costs, which he referred to as “logistics costs,” up 40% from this time last year.

“But that’s a spot rate, and we don’t pay the spot rate on all of our freight. We probably pay the spot rate on probably about 7% of our freight,” he said at a Barclays investor conference. Spot rates refer to current market prices. “So when you see those costs going up and you see that spot rate going up, you should not assume that General Mills is paying all that increase at this time.”

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He said the company has its key input costs, including crops like wheat, are “covered” for the next six to nine months. In other words, General Mills can wait longer to pass along higher prices to consumers since it is currently shielded from much of the increased cost themselves.

Temporary relief is also stemming from tariff refunds.

Tractor Supply CEO Hal Lawton said his company is putting two-thirds of its anticipated tariff refund of $100 million to $150 million toward “covering freight and incremental fuel costs,” he said at the same Barclays conference. The other third has gone toward keeping prices lower than they otherwise would’ve been.

But that relief may not last. Several CEOs have warned investors that the benefit of tariff refunds will fade, potentially leaving companies with fewer options in terms of absorbing rising costs.

This story will be updated when the CPI report is released at 8:30 a.m. ET.

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由于与伊朗的战争，汽油价格飙升至往年同期最高水平，美国人已经在加油站感受到了高油价带来的痛苦。但更令人担忧的是接下来会发生什么。

能源价格持续上涨——尤其是柴油价格——可能会继续推高货运成本，使企业难以避免，导致食品杂货和其他消费品价格上涨。

正因如此，美联储比以往更加密切地关注周五公布的8月份消费者价格指数（CPI）报告。最新报告预计将显示，通胀率同比略有下降，但经济学家也预计环比价格将有所上涨。任何价格压力依然强劲或蔓延至整个经济的迹象，都足以促使美联储官员在下周的货币政策会议上加息。

FactSet调查的经济学家预计，截至8月份的12个月内，通胀率为3.3%，较7月份的3.4%略有下降。但按月计算，价格涨幅预计将加快至0.4%，高于7月份的0.1%。

剔除食品和能源价格后，衡量潜在通胀的指标——“核心”通胀——预计将保持相对温和。经济学家预计8月份核心价格将上涨0.2%，与7月份持平，这将使年化通胀率从上月降至2.4%。

但总体数据和核心数据可能无法反映全部情况。

根据美国劳工统计局周四发布的最新报告，以生产者价格指数衡量的批发通胀率在8月份大幅加速上涨。仅商品价格一项，上月就上涨了1.1%，与7月份0.4%的降幅形成鲜明对比。劳工统计局表示，超过四分之三的涨幅是由能源价格环比上涨4.2%所致。

生产者价格指数（PPI）被视为未来几个月消费者价格走势的重要指标，因为企业通常是最先感受到价格上涨的群体。但成本上涨并不一定会转嫁给消费者，因为许多企业会自行承担一部分成本。

如果企业在能源成本上涨推高运输成本的同时，又受到关税上涨的挤压，那么这种情况可能会变得更加困难。

如果您现在通过 UPS 等快递公司寄送包裹，您将支付燃油附加费，该费用每周根据政府追踪的平均燃油价格进行调整。

然而，大型企业通常会与承运商签订长期合同，锁定运输价格，从而在燃料和其他运输成本上涨时免受一些直接影响。

例如，通用磨坊首席执行官杰弗里·哈明周三表示，该公司目前的总体运输成本（他称之为“物流成本”）比去年同期上涨了 40%。

“但那是即期运价，我们并非所有货运都按即期运价支付。我们大概只有7%的货运按即期运价支付，”他在巴克莱银行的投资者会议上说道。即期运价指的是当前的市场价格。“所以，当你看到成本上涨，看到即期运价上涨时，你不应该认为通用磨坊公司现在承担了所有上涨的成本。”

安吉拉·韦斯（Angela Weiss）法新社/盖蒂图片社

他表示，公司关键的投入成本，包括小麦等农作物，在未来六到九个月内都已得到保障。换句话说，通用磨坊可以推迟将更高的价格转嫁给消费者，因为它目前自身无需承担大部分成本上涨的影响。

关税退款也带来了暂时的缓解。

Tractor Supply公司首席执行官哈尔·劳顿在同一场巴克莱银行会议上表示，该公司将预计获得的1亿至1.5亿美元关税退款中的三分之二用于“支付运费和增加的燃油成本”。剩余的三分之一则用于维持低于原先价格的水平。

但这种缓解可能不会持续。一些首席执行官警告投资者，关税退款带来的好处将会逐渐消失，这可能会使企业在应对成本上涨方面选择余地减少。

本报道将在美东时间上午 8:30 CPI 报告发布时更新。