Several Latin American leaders are looking to the Bukele model to fight crime. This country has another idea

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Uruguay is ranked as one of the safest countries in Latin America but rising public concern about crime have forced its policymakers to develop a new “democratic” strategy for the problem.

Their aim is to bring down homicide rates while deliberately deviating from the draconian security measures popularized by El Salvador’s strongman President Nayib Bukele.

While the iron-fisted crackdown on crime by the self-declared “world’s coolest dictator” has significantly reduced homicides in El Salvador, critics say it has come at the cost of mass incarceration and the erosion of democratic rights.

Uruguay – a country that restored democracy in 1985 after more than a decade under a military dictatorship – has rejected such an approach, despite many of its neighbors adopting it.

“More police, more prisons and harsher sentences. Historically, that was the formula for failure. And it only made the problems worse,” says criminologist Emiliano Rojido, a public security policy adviser to Uruguay’s Ministry of the Interior.

Instead, Uruguay has designed a 10-year-long project called the National Security Plan , which aims to tackle the issue with a whole-of-government approach instead of viewing it as solely a policing matter. The project was proposed by the left-wing administration of President Yamandú Orsi and developed with support from multiple parties.

Uruguay’s Interior Minister Carlos Negro, who led the plan’s implementation, said his country wants it to be “democratic, republican and participatory.” He insists that it won’t rely on “authoritarian formulas or measures” like the Bukele model, which he said cannot be implemented in a democratic nation.

Crime-related insecurity is a looming specter over much of Latin America. A 2023 study by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime found that the Americas have the highest regional homicide rate in the world as well as high rates of homicidal violence related to organized crime.

This has led to public anxiety and demands for drastic solutions. “The entire region has been undergoing a decades-long deterioration in public security indicators,” explains Diego Sanjurjo, a leading member of the Latin American and Caribbean Group for Security and Democracy (Glacsed) and former coordinator of Comprehensive and Preventive Security Strategies under the previous Uruguayan government of center-right leader Luis Lacalle Pou.

“Illegal markets and criminal groups have been growing for decades, and the very few countries that were considered safe have also begun to experience serious problems, such as Uruguay, Chile, Costa Rica and Ecuador,” Sanjurjo adds.

The United States has partnered with several Latin American countries to fight organized crime and has carried out dozens of military strikes on alleged drug traffickers. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Colombia, Ecuador and Peru this week to discuss security efforts.

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Faced with the rise in crime, some countries in the region – including Colombia, Ecuador and Argentina – are attempting to replicate parts of the Bukele model with plans to build large prisons and increase policing.

The hardline model is credited for transforming El Salvador from one of the most violent countries in the world to one of the safest, with just 1.3 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, according to its government.

But the country’s considerable drop in violence has come at a high cost to human rights, say critics. El Salvador’s democracy has waned amid a years-long state of emergency, mass arrests without due process, allegations of torture (which the government denies), control of the Supreme Court and a constitutional reform allowing indefinite presidential reelection, according to Varieties of Democracy.

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Moreover, experts and officials say the Bukele model is not easily applicable in other countries – due to fundamental differences in size, geography, criminal activity, institutional structure and other factors – nor does it guarantee success. Uruguay is roughly eight times bigger than El Salvador, its economy is stronger and its danger index is lower, according to conflict monitor ACLED.

Rojido rejected the strategy of providing security by sacrificing rights. “We understand public security as the exercise of rights: the right to life, the right to property, the right to freedom. If we have to restrict rights to achieve security, something is wrong,” he said.

Diego Sanjurjo, a member of Uruguay’s Colorado Party, warned that repressive security policies tend to be addictive.

“You put 1,000 more police officers on the streets, but crime does not go down. Yet no one thinks of reversing the measure. On the contrary, citizens want more police officers … No one ever says: If this didn’t work, I’ll reverse it,” he said. “Almost every country in Latin America is on that train: an increasingly expensive security system that does not produce results.”

Uruguay’s plan seeks to address the problem through multiple approaches. First, it treats public security as a long-term state policy, which will last a decade and “transcend terms of office,” Rojido said.

Second, it stops viewing the issue as merely a policing matter and starts involving more government agencies along with civil society and the private sector, including security firms and tech companies.

And third, it aims to base public policy on facts and evidence instead of rhetoric and demagoguery, according to Rojido.

Uruguay is also receiving support from various organizations. It has created a group of international institutions to provide technical assistance and financial support and document the plan’s implementation “in the hope that Uruguay’s experience could also be useful to other countries in the region,” Rojido explains.

Uruguay is also a member of Glacsed, led by former Costa Rican and Peruvian presidents Carlos Alvarado and Francisco Sagasti, which specifically seeks to “broaden and strengthen the conversation about how to confront organized crime with firm responses that remain within the rule of law and do not entail a return to authoritarian regimes,” says Sanjurjo, one of its leading figures.

So far, Uruguayan authorities have been unable to reduce homicides, the vast majority of which are linked to organized crime.

In the Uruguayan capital and its surrounding areas, the homicide rate over the past five years has ranged between 16 and 18 per 100,000 inhabitants, while nationwide it stands at around 10 per 100,000. It is a crime that has statistically increased over the past half-century and is Uruguayans’ chief concern, according to polls.

However, other crimes have been steadily declining, including theft, robbery, gender-based violence and crimes in prisons, among others.

“Of course, we are well aware of the scale of the challenge we are dealing with,” says Rojido.

Experts warn that results will not come quickly.

That is why policymakers say they designed the Uruguay plan as a 10-year strategy that spans at least two government terms.

To that end, Uruguay has favorable conditions for establishing security as a matter of state policy, “such as permanent dialogue among the different political forces and a robust civil society,” says Rojido. “Because, ultimately, the parties have alternated in government, and none has been able to find solutions on its own,” he adds. They already know the alternative: people losing faith in democracy, and “magical solutions, shortcuts, and demagogic, populist, authoritarian proposals emerging,” he said.

Michael Rios contributed to this report.

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乌拉圭被评为拉丁美洲最安全的国家之一，但公众对犯罪问题的日益关注迫使其决策者制定了一项新的“民主”战略来解决这个问题。

他们的目标是在刻意偏离萨尔瓦多强人总统纳伊布·布克莱推行的严苛安全措施的同时，降低凶杀率。

虽然这位自称“世界上最酷的独裁者”对犯罪采取的铁腕镇压措施已显著降低了萨尔瓦多的凶杀案数量，但批评人士表示，这是以大规模监禁和民主权利的侵蚀为代价的。

乌拉圭在经历了十多年的军事独裁统治后，于 1985 年恢复了民主，尽管许多邻国都采取了这种做法，但乌​​拉圭却拒绝了这种做法。

“增加警力、增建监狱、加重刑罚。从历史上看，这都是失败的根源，只会让问题变得更糟。”乌拉圭内政部公共安全政策顾问、犯罪学家埃米利亚诺·罗希多说道。

乌拉圭并未采取传统做法，而是制定了一项名为“国家安全计划”的十年期项目，旨在以全政府统筹的方式解决这一问题，而非仅仅将其视为警务问题。该项目由总统亚曼杜·奥尔西领导的左翼政府提出，并得到了多个政党的支持。

领导该计划实施的乌拉圭内政部长卡洛斯·内格罗表示，乌拉圭希望该计划“民主、共和且具有参与性”。他坚持认为，该计划不会依赖像布克莱模式那样的“威权主义模式或措施”，他认为这种模式无法在民主国家实施。

与犯罪相关的安全隐患笼罩着拉丁美洲的大部分地区。联合国毒品和犯罪问题办公室2023年的一项研究发现，美洲是世界上区域凶杀率最高的地区，同时与有组织犯罪相关的凶杀暴力事件发生率也很高。

这引发了公众的焦虑，并要求采取激进的解决方案。“整个地区的公共安全指标已经持续恶化了几十年，”拉丁美洲和加勒比安全与民主组织（Glassed）的主要成员、前乌拉圭中右翼领导人路易斯·拉卡列·波乌政府时期的全面和预防性安全战略协调员迭戈·桑胡尔霍解释道。

“非法市场和犯罪集团已经发展了几十年，少数几个被认为安全的国家也开始出现严重问题，例如乌拉圭、智利、哥斯达黎加和厄瓜多尔，”桑胡尔霍补充道。

美国已与多个拉美国家合作打击有组织犯罪，并对涉嫌贩毒分子进行了数十次军事打击。国务卿马可·卢比奥本周访问了哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔和秘鲁，讨论安全合作事宜。

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面对犯罪率上升，该地区的一些国家——包括哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔和阿根廷——正试图复制布克莱模式的部分内容，计划建造大型监狱并加强警力。

据萨尔瓦多政府称，强硬的治安模式使萨尔瓦多从世界上最暴力的国家之一转变为最安全的国家之一，每 10 万居民中只有 1.3 起凶杀案。

但批评人士指出，该国暴力事件的大幅下降是以人权状况的严重恶化为代价的。据《民主多样性》杂志报道，萨尔瓦多的民主在长达数年的紧急状态、未经正当程序的大规模逮捕、酷刑指控（政府否认）、最高法院被控制以及允许总统无限期连任的宪法改革等一系列事件中日渐衰落。

Jose Cabezas/路透社

此外，专家和官员表示，由于国土面积、地理位置、犯罪活动、制度结构和其他因素的根本差异，布克莱模式难以直接应用于其他国家，也无法保证成功。据冲突监测机构ACLED的数据显示，乌拉圭的面积大约是萨尔瓦多的八倍，经济实力更强，危险指数也更低。

罗吉多反对以牺牲权利来保障安全的策略。他说：“我们理解的公共安全是权利的行使：生命权、财产权、自由权。如果为了实现安全而必须限制权利，那就说明有问题。”

乌拉圭科罗拉多党成员迭戈·桑胡尔霍警告说，压制性的安全政策往往会让人上瘾。

“你在街上增加了1000名警察，但犯罪率并没有下降。然而，没有人想过要取消这项措施。相反，民众还想要​​更多的警察……从来没有人说过：如果这项措施无效，我就取消它，”他说道。“几乎所有拉丁美洲国家都面临着同样的问题：不断增加的安保成本却收效甚微。”

乌拉圭的计划旨在通过多种途径解决这一问题。首先，该计划将公共安全视为一项长期国家政策，这项政策将持续十年，并“超越总统任期”，罗希多表示。

其次，它不再将这个问题仅仅视为一个警务问题，而是开始让更多的政府机构以及民间社会和私营部门参与进来，包括安保公司和科技公司。

第三，据罗吉多称，它旨在以事实和证据为基础制定公共政策，而不是以空洞的言辞和煽动性言论为基础。

乌拉圭也得到了多个组织的支持。罗希多解释说，乌拉圭成立了一个国际机构小组，旨在提供技术援助和财政支持，并记录该计划的实施情况，“希望乌拉圭的经验也能对该地区其他国家有所帮助”。

乌拉圭也是 Glacsed 的成员，该组织由哥斯达黎加前总统卡洛斯·阿尔瓦拉多和秘鲁前总统弗朗西斯科·萨加斯蒂领导，其主要人物之一桑胡尔霍表示，该组织致力于“扩大和加强关于如何以坚定的回应打击有组织犯罪的对话，这些回应仍然在法治框架内，并且不会导致回到威权政体”。

到目前为止，乌拉圭当局仍未能减少凶杀案，其中绝大多数都与有组织犯罪有关。

在乌拉圭首都及其周边地区，过去五年来的凶杀率在每10万居民16至18人之间，而全国的凶杀率约为每10万人10人。民意调查显示，过去半个世纪以来，凶杀案的统计数据呈上升趋势，也是乌拉圭人最关心的问题。

然而，其他犯罪行为一直在稳步下降，包括盗窃、抢劫、基于性别的暴力和监狱犯罪等。

“当然，我们非常清楚我们所面临的挑战有多么巨大，”罗吉多说。

专家警告说，结果不会很快出来。

这就是为什么政策制定者表示，他们将乌拉圭计划设计成一项为期 10 年的战略，该战略至少涵盖两届政府任期。

为此，乌拉圭具备将安全作为国家政策的有利条件，“例如不同政治力量之间的持续对话以及强大的公民社会，”罗希多说道。“因为归根结底，各党派一直在轮流执政，但没有一个党派能够独立找到解决方案，”他补充道。他们已经看到了另一种选择：民众对民主失去信心，“各种不切实际的方案、捷径以及煽动性的、民粹主义的、威权主义的提议层出不穷，”他说道。

Michael Rios对本报道亦有贡献。