Trump can’t stop insulting his own candidate in Texas. Why?

Republicans’ hopes of holding their Senate majority might hinge on Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton more than anyone else.

And President Donald Trump seemingly can’t stop insulting him.

Trump has repeatedly made the case for Paxton — whom he endorsed over the safer candidate, incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn — in recent days. And over and over, he’s thickly layered it in insults directed at the way Paxton looks, dresses and speaks. Trump then assures any listeners that Paxton, despite how he presents, is actually a fantastic attorney general.

It’s both bizarre and entertaining, in a vintage Trump way — before American politics seemed to get heavier under the weight of controversial wars, more severe partisanship and increasing political violence.

But it all begs the question: What on earth is Trump doing? Does he really think this helps his candidate? Is there any strategy behind it?

It all started on September 2, when Trump alluded to Paxton being a bit of a slob no fewer than three separate times:

“Some people don’t like the way he dresses,” Trump said at a travel industry event at the White House, “or some people don’t like the way he interviews or talks.”

He added at a Rose Garden event with fellow Republicans: “You might not love his look, you might not love his television interviews, but he was the best attorney general in the country, perhaps. … And that speaks a lot louder than the suit he’s wearing that doesn’t look so great.”

“I know guys that are very impressive. Everyone says, oh, they’re great, they’re great, wow. But they were lousy at their job,” Trump added on Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s podcast. “This is sort of a little bit the opposite, to be honest with you.”

Trump continued ragging on Paxton on successive nights of the Republican midterm convention in Dallas this week.

On Wednesday, the president made it clear — in case there was any doubt — that he personally didn’t have much regard for how Paxton presents.

“Some may not like the way he dresses,” Trump said before slipping in a laugh line: “I don’t.”

He added later: “He may not dress right, he may not talk exactly perfectly, and he may not be the best-looking guy I’ve ever seen. But you know what he is? He’s the greatest attorney general in America.”

Trump then recounted the whole thing again on Thursday night, as the camera rather awkwardly cut to Paxton standing and bearing his latest indignity.

“So I don’t know if he’s gonna ever speak to me again, but you know, I don’t care as long as he wins,” Trump said. “I really don’t care.”

There are a few potential explanations for all this.

Occam’s razor could certainly apply here. Trump has made it abundantly clear throughout his time in the public eye that he really values personal appearance. He tends to select aides and Cabinet members who are TV-friendly and/or look the part.

Paxton certainly is not that. Look no further than the brief video that his campaign for some reason posted shortly before Trump started publicly ragging on him. Whatever Paxton’s assets, he most certainly lacks charisma.

It seems entirely possible, and potentially the simplest explanation, that Trump can’t get past how poorly Paxton presents, and he just doesn’t have a filter on the subject. He has preempted some of his criticism by claiming that his staff told him not to say it. Plus, it’s no secret that Trump-the-showman feeds off the energy of crowds, so maybe the reactions to his criticism are too hard for him to resist.

But assuming he has an actual strategy here, there are reasons it could make some sense.

One is that Trump is trying to focus on Paxton’s, well, less-offensive liabilities.

This is a candidate with a host of personal and professional scandals and problems in his past. To the extent Trump gestures at how Paxton looks — rather than past criminal charges, an impeachment and infidelity allegations — and gets people to unconsciously think it’s just the way he presents himself that’s his big liability, maybe it’s a net-positive?

Trump could also be trying to draw attention to Paxton’s supposed competence. Part of the coverage of these comments, after all, includes Trump calling him a great and even unparalleled attorney general. Many media outlets likely wouldn’t cover those comments made on their own, but Trump suggesting Paxton is a slob means the quotes get more eyeballs.

Maybe by saying this over and over again, Trump is trying to focus voters on what should really matter in such a campaign.

But a final potential motivation is something more insidious. Perhaps Trump is setting the stage to blame Paxton for a potential loss.

Trump is a proud man, of course. He’s already pre-blaming congressional Republicans for potentially losing the House and Senate (even though polling overwhelmingly suggests the party’s biggest problems are largely his doing).

If Paxton loses, it would be the first time the GOP lost a statewide race in Texas in more than 30 years. And given the central role Trump played in elevating Paxton, it would be a huge black mark on the president’s political record. After all, he was the one who helped Paxton defeat a much more standard-issue, scandal-free candidate in Cornyn, who likely would have had an easier time in the general election.

But perhaps Trump is creating some distance so he can later say Paxton ran a terrible campaign and didn’t take advantage of his opportunity. The president is clearly sensitive about failed endorsements and often tries to explain them away after the fact by blaming the candidate .

Thus far, the jury is out on how Trump’s antics are playing.

Trump claimed Wednesday that Paxton’s numbers were going “through the roof” since the president began ragging on him. But there’s no actual evidence of that. The polls generally show a margin-of-error race, and some show Democratic state Rep. James Talarico slightly ahead.

What’s pretty clear from those polls, though, is that Paxton hasn’t really rallied Republicans to his side after a brutal primary four months ago. So maybe Trump decided it’s worth trying something — anything — to give him a little boost.

He’s just chosen a very curious method.

共和党能否保住参议院多数席位，可能最取决于德克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿，而不是其他任何人。

而唐纳德·特朗普总统似乎一直不停地侮辱他。

近几天来，特朗普反复力挺帕克斯顿——他甚至放弃了更为稳妥的候选人、现任共和党参议员约翰·科宁，转而支持帕克斯顿。他反复强调，帕克斯顿的外貌、穿着和谈吐都饱受诟病。随后，特朗普又向听众保证，尽管帕克斯顿的外表如此，但他实际上是一位非常优秀的司法部长。

它既怪诞又有趣，很有特朗普的风格——那时美国政治还没有因为充满争议的战争、更加严重的党派之争和日益严重的政治暴力而变得更加沉重。

但这不禁让人质疑：特朗普到底在干什么？他真的认为这样做对他的候选人有帮助吗？这背后有什么策略吗？

这一切始于9月2日，当时特朗普至少三次暗示帕克斯顿有点邋遢：

特朗普在白宫举行的一次旅游业活动上说：“有些人不喜欢他的穿着打扮，有些人不喜欢他的采访或说话方式。”

他在玫瑰园与共和党同僚举行的一次活动上补充道：“你可能不喜欢他的外表，你可能不喜欢他的电视采访，但他或许是全国最好的司法部长……这比他身上那套不太好看的西装更有说服力。”

“我认识一些非常厉害的人。每个人都说，哦，他们很棒，他们很棒，哇。但他们的工作能力很差，”特朗普在德克萨斯州副州长丹·帕特里克的播客节目中补充道。“说实话，现在的情况有点正好相反。”

本周在达拉斯举行的共和党中期选举大会上，特朗普连续几个晚上继续抨击帕克斯顿。

周三，总统明确表示——以防有人对此表示怀疑——他个人并不太在意帕克斯顿的形象。

“有些人可能不喜欢他的穿着打扮，”特朗普说着，然后笑着补充道：“我也不喜欢。”

他后来补充道：“他可能衣着不够得体，说话可能不够完美，也可能不是我见过的最英俊的男人。但你知道他是什么吗？他是美国最伟大的司法部长。”

周四晚上，特朗普又把整件事讲了一遍，镜头尴尬地切换到帕克斯顿站着，承受着他最新的屈辱。

“所以我不知道他以后是否还会跟我说话，但你知道，只要他赢了，我就不在乎，”特朗普说。“我真的不在乎。”

对此可能有几种解释。

奥卡姆剃刀原理在这里确实适用。特朗普在公众视野中多次明确表示，他非常重视个人形象。他倾向于选择那些上镜或外形符合形象的助手和内阁成员。

帕克斯顿显然不是那样的人。看看他竞选团队不知何故在特朗普开始公开抨击他之前不久发布的那段简短视频就知道了。无论帕克斯顿有什么优势，他绝对缺乏个人魅力。

特朗普似乎完全有可能，而且这或许是最简单的解释：他始终无法接受帕克斯顿糟糕的演讲风格，所以在这个问题上他口无遮拦。他甚至声称幕僚让他不要说这些话，以此来预先化解一些批评。此外，众所周知，特朗普这位表演家非常依赖人群的能量，所以或许他实在难以抵挡人们对他批评的反应。

但假设他确实有自己的策略，那么这样做也有一定的道理。

一是特朗普试图将注意力集中在帕克斯顿那些不太具攻击性的缺点上。

这位候选人过去劣迹斑斑，丑闻缠身，问题重重。如果特朗普着重强调帕克斯顿的外貌——而不是他过去的刑事指控、弹劾案和婚外情传闻——并让人们潜意识里认为他最大的弱点只是外表，那么这或许反而会起到积极作用？

特朗普也可能是想借此机会凸显帕克斯顿的所谓能力。毕竟，这些言论的报道中就包括特朗普称赞他是一位伟大甚至无与伦比的司法部长。许多媒体可能不会单独报道这些言论，但特朗普暗示帕克斯顿是个邋遢鬼，这意味着这些引言会吸引更多眼球。

或许，特朗普反复强调这一点，是想让选民关注在这样的竞选活动中真正重要的事。

但最后一个潜在动机则更为阴险。或许特朗普正在为可能的败选做准备，把责任推卸给帕克斯顿。

特朗普当然是个骄傲的人。他已经开始预先指责国会共和党人可能导致众议院和参议院的失利（尽管民调结果压倒性地表明，该党最大的问题很大程度上是他造成的）。

如果帕克斯顿败选，这将是共和党30多年来首次在德克萨斯州的全州选举中失利。考虑到特朗普在帕克斯顿的崛起过程中扮演的关键角色，这将是总统政治生涯中的一大污点。毕竟，正是特朗普帮助帕克斯顿击败了丑闻缠身、远不如帕克斯顿那样声名显赫的候选人科宁，而科宁在普选中本可能轻松取胜。

但或许特朗普是在刻意拉开距离，以便日后指责帕克斯顿竞选糟糕，错失良机。总统显然对失败的背书非常敏感，事后常常试图通过指责候选人来撇清关系。

目前来看，特朗普的这些滑稽举动究竟会产生怎样的效果，尚无定论。

特朗普周三声称，自从他开始抨击帕克斯顿以来，帕克斯顿的支持率“一路飙升”。但并没有实际证据支持这一说法。民调普遍显示，两人的支持率差距在误差范围内，一些民调甚至显示民主党州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科略微领先。

不过，民调结果很清楚地表明，帕克斯顿在四个月前残酷的党内初选之后，并没有真正赢得共和党人的支持。所以，或许特朗普觉得值得尝试一些办法——哪怕是任何办法——来提振他的支持率。

他选择了一种非常奇特的方法。