Ukrainian drones hit all three Baltic States − did Russia redirect them?

BERLIN — Three Baltic states recorded drone incursions within roughly 48 hours this week, as Ukrainian strike drones targeting Russian Baltic port infrastructure were apparently diverted into NATO territory by Russian electronic warfare.

The most serious incident occurred at 3:43 a.m. on March 25, when a drone crossing Estonian airspace from Russia struck the chimney of the Auvere power station in the eastern Ida-Viru County − located less than 50 kilometers from the Russian port of Ust-Luga, which Ukraine was striking overnight. No one was injured and the plant’s power output was not affected, Estonian energy company Enefit Power said. But the incident was enough to trigger an emergency government session in Tallinn and a nationwide alarm alert that caused confusion when it failed to specify the affected region.

The Director General of the Estonian Internal Security Service, Margo Palloson, confirmed it was “indeed a drone of Ukrainian” origin, and Estonia’s foreign minister stressed it “was not directed at Estonia.”

Estonian Defense Forces Commander Lt. Gen. Andrus Merilo said investigators were working to determine what type of drone hit the plant, but he was unambiguous about its payload. “We can say with fairly high confidence that it was not a reconnaissance drone, but rather an explosive-laden device — either an attack drone or a decoy drone,” he told reporters.

Earlier the same night, a drone entered Latvian airspace from Russia and detonated in the Krāslava region in southeastern Latvia at around 2:30 a.m., according to Latvian military authorities. Latvian Deputy Chief of Joint Staff Egils Leščinskis said the object was detected by radar roughly ten minutes before impact. “The aircraft most likely veered off course or was affected by electromagnetic warfare measures,” he said.

On Monday night, a Ukrainian drone had already come down in the Varena district of southeastern Lithuania, near the Belarusian border, following a separate attack on Primorsk − Russia’s other major Baltic oil port, which had been burning for over two days by Wednesday. Lithuanian authorities confirmed the drone had flown over Belarus before crashing.

It’s not clear why these Ukrainian drones are now repeatedly falling on Western territory rather than reaching their intended Russian targets, but Russian GPS jamming and spoofing have been singled out as a likely cause by officials and analysts. Russian transmitters are known to block and falsify Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals, such as those from the GPS and European Galileo satellite constellations. This can cause drones to lose track of their location or even veer off course when the systems on board are fed falsified location information.

“It’s electronic warfare with the aim of preventing being hit by things that use satellite navigation – drones,” Ralf Ziebold of the German Aerospace Center DLR previously told Defense News for an investigation that geolocated the origin of these signals.

It’s unclear whether Russia is actively redirecting drones to NATO countries or whether the incursions are simply a byproduct of EW defenses protecting key infrastructure and assets on Russian soil. Western officials so far have described the incidents as accidents.

In addition to electronic warfare, the distances at play are huge: Some of the targets Ukrainian drones were intending to strike were up to 1,000 kilometers from Ukrainian territory, making these some of the longest-distance strikes Ukraine has conducted. These long flights can magnify minor navigational errors.

Russian media, heavily controlled by the Kremlin, have reported that the Baltic States have opened their air spaces for the overflight of Ukrainian drones on their way to strike targets in the Leningrad oblast. The claim, which was picked up by Russian state-owned TV channel Rossiya 1, appears to have originated from Mash , one of the most widely read Russian-language Telegram channels.

None of the three drones was intercepted by the Baltic states’ or allied air defense systems. The EDF commander acknowledged that engaging drones near the Russian border is legally and tactically constrained. “Our goal is to avoid any unintended escalation, so we certainly cannot engage drones where there is even the slightest risk that our actions could carry over into Russian territory,” Merilo said.

The incidents follow a growing number of drone incursions along the eastern flank. In July 2025, Lithuania recorded two incursions by Russian-origin Gerbera drones crossing from Belarus − the second of which was found at the Gaižiūnai military training ground carrying approximately two kilograms of explosives, some 100 kilometers inside NATO territory. In August, Ukrainian drone fragments were found near Elva in south-central Estonia after a night of Ukrainian strikes on Russian inland targets. The following month, Latvia recovered Gerbera fragments on a western beach.

That accumulation of incidents has sharpened allied frustration. “These are the effects of Russia’s full-scale war of aggression. We can assume that we will see more such incidents,” said Margo Palloson, director general of Estonia’s Internal Security Service.

Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina drew a connection with Western capitals’ preoccupation with the war against Iran: the attacks on Ukraine and their spillover were intensifying “at a time when the attention of the West has been diverted by events in the Middle East,” she said.

Latvian Defense Minister Andris Sprūds cut short a visit to Kyiv, where he had been delivering drones to Ukrainian forces, to return home. Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said Vilnius had opened talks with Kyiv. None of the governments signaled any intent to invoke Article 4 or 5, and all three publicly attributed the drone incidents to the spillover of Russia’s war.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi addressed the incidents at a press conference, stating that Kyiv is in close contact with its partners to clarify all details and that such incidents “have been occurring regularly” in the Baltic states.

The incursions show that the Baltic states’ air defenses may still be unprepared to tackle modern drone threats and raise questions about whether Russia is deliberately redirecting Ukrainian drones to Western states, or whether the incidents can be chalked up as collateral. With Ukraine striking deep into Russia and targeting the Leningrad Oblast along corridors that pass directly over or near the Baltics in particular, more incidents of the Baltic states inadvertently ending up in the crossfire of the war in Ukraine seem likely.

Linus Höller is Defense News' Europe correspondent and OSINT investigator. He reports on the arms deals, sanctions, and geopolitics shaping Europe and the world. He holds master’s degrees in WMD nonproliferation, terrorism studies, and international relations, and works in four languages: English, German, Russian, and Spanish.

柏林——本周，波罗的海三国在大约 48 小时内记录到无人机入侵事件，乌克兰攻击型无人机原本瞄准俄罗斯波罗的海港口基础设施，但显然被俄罗斯电子战系统引导至北约领土。

最严重的事件发生在3月25日凌晨3点43分，一架从俄罗斯飞越爱沙尼亚领空的无人机撞上了位于爱沙尼亚东部伊达-维鲁县的奥韦雷发电站的烟囱。该发电站距离乌克兰夜间袭击的俄罗斯乌斯季卢加港不到50公里。爱沙尼亚能源公司Enefit Power表示，无人受伤，电厂的发电量也未受到影响。但此次事件足以在塔林引发紧急政府会议，并导致全国范围内的警报系统发出，但由于警报中未明确指出受影响地区，造成了混乱。

爱沙尼亚内部安全局局长玛戈·帕洛松证实，这“确实是一架乌克兰无人机”，爱沙尼亚外交部长强调，它“并非针对爱沙尼亚”。

爱沙尼亚国防军司令安德鲁斯·梅里洛中将表示，调查人员正在努力确定袭击工厂的无人机类型，但他对无人机的有效载荷毫不含糊。“我们可以相当肯定地说，它不是侦察无人机，而是一种装载爆炸物的装置——要么是攻击无人机，要么是诱饵无人机，”他告诉记者。

据拉脱维亚军方消息，当晚早些时候，一架无人机从俄罗斯进入拉脱维亚领空，并于凌晨2点30分左右在拉脱维亚东南部克拉斯拉瓦地区爆炸。拉脱维亚联合参谋部副参谋长埃吉尔斯·莱什钦斯基表示，该物体在撞击前约十分钟被雷达探测到。“这架无人机很可能偏离了航线，或者受到了电磁战措施的影响，”他说道。

周一晚间，一架乌克兰无人机在立陶宛东南部靠近白俄罗斯边境的瓦雷纳地区坠毁。此前，俄罗斯另一个重要的波罗的海石油港口——普里莫尔斯克港遭到袭击，截至周三，该港口已燃烧两天多。立陶宛当局证实，这架无人机在坠毁前曾飞越白俄罗斯领空。

目前尚不清楚这些乌克兰无人机为何屡次坠落在西方领土而非其预定的俄罗斯目标上，但官员和分析人士已将俄罗斯的GPS干扰和欺骗列为可能的罪魁祸首。众所周知，俄罗斯的发射器会屏蔽和篡改全球导航卫星系统（GNSS）信号，例如来自GPS和欧洲伽利略卫星星座的信号。这会导致无人机失去定位，甚至在机载系统接收到虚假位置信息时偏离航线。

德国航空航天中心 (DLR) 的拉尔夫·齐博尔德此前在接受《防务新闻》采访时表示：“这是电子战，目的是防止被使用卫星导航的物体（例如无人机）击中。”该调查确定了这些信号的来源。

目前尚不清楚俄罗斯是否在主动将无人机转向北约国家，或者这些入侵事件仅仅是俄罗斯为保护其境内关键基础设施和资产而部署电子战防御系统的副产品。西方官员迄今为止将这些事件描述为意外事故。

除了电子战之外，此次行动涉及的距离也极其遥远：乌克兰无人机计划打击的部分目标距离乌克兰领土最远达1000公里，这使得这些行动成为乌克兰迄今为止执行的最远距离打击之一。如此远距离的飞行会放大微小的导航误差。

受克里姆林宫严密控制的俄罗斯媒体报道称，波罗的海三国已开放领空，允许乌克兰无人机飞越领空，前往列宁格勒州打击目标。俄罗斯国家电视台Rossiya 1报道了这一说法，而该消息似乎源自Mash，这是俄语Telegram上读者最多的频道之一。

这三架无人机均未被波罗的海国家或其盟国的防空系统拦截。法国国防军指挥官承认，在俄罗斯边境附近打击无人机在法律和战术上都受到限制。“我们的目标是避免任何意外升级，因此，如果存在哪怕一丝一毫的行动可能波及俄罗斯领土的风险，我们绝对不会打击无人机，”梅里洛说道。

这些事件发生之际，东翼无人机入侵事件数量正在不断增加。2025年7月，立陶宛记录到两起俄罗斯产“格贝拉”（Gerbera）无人机从白俄罗斯越境入侵的事件——第二起事件发生在盖日乌奈（Gaižiūnai）军事训练场，该无人机携带约两公斤炸药，位于北约领土内约100公里处。8月，在乌克兰对俄罗斯内陆目标进行夜间空袭后，爱沙尼亚中南部埃尔瓦（Elva）附近发现了乌克兰无人机的碎片。次月，拉脱维亚在西部海滩上发现了“格贝拉”无人机的碎片。

一系列事件的累积加剧了盟国的沮丧情绪。“这些都是俄罗斯全面侵略战争的后果。我们可以预见，未来还会发生更多此类事件，”爱沙尼亚国内安全局局长玛戈·帕洛森表示。

拉脱维亚总理埃维卡·西利娜将对乌克兰的袭击与西方国家首都对伊朗战争的关注联系起来：她说，对乌克兰的袭击及其蔓延加剧了“西方的注意力被中东事件所转移”之际。

拉脱维亚国防部长安德里斯·斯普鲁兹缩短了对基辅的访问行程，他此前一直在基辅向乌克兰军队交付无人机，随后返回拉脱维亚。立陶宛外交部长凯斯图蒂斯·布德里斯表示，维尔纽斯已与基辅展开对话。三国政府均未表示有意援引《联合国宪章》第四条或第五条，并且三国都公开将无人机事件归咎于俄罗斯战争的蔓延。

乌克兰外交部发言人赫奥尔希·蒂赫伊在新闻发布会上就这些事件发表了讲话，称基辅正与合作伙伴密切联系，以澄清所有细节，并表示此类事件在波罗的海国家“经常发生”。

这些入侵事件表明，波罗的海国家的防空系统可能仍不足以应对现代无人机威胁，并引发人们质疑：俄罗斯是否故意将乌克兰无人机转向西方国家，或者这些事件是否只是附带损失。鉴于乌克兰深入俄罗斯境内，并特别针对沿途经过波罗的海国家或附近的列宁格勒州发动袭击，波罗的海国家很可能再次意外卷入乌克兰战争的战火之中。

林努斯·霍勒是《防务新闻》的欧洲记者和开源情报调查员。他报道影响欧洲乃至全球的军火交易、制裁和地缘政治。他拥有大规模杀伤性武器不扩散、恐怖主义研究和国际关系三个硕士学位，并精通英语、德语、俄语和西班牙语四种语言。