Italy’s sudden defense-spending uptick lacks details, economist finds

ROME — Italy has juggled its definition of what constitutes defense spending to beef up its budget by €14 billion ($16.3 billion) this year, but has failed to explain how it did it, one of Italy’s leading economists has complained.

Carlo Cottarelli said that Italy raised its spending, on paper, from around 1.5% of GDP in 2024 to 2% in 2025 “without a clear explanation” of how it did it.

“Should we consider ourselves more secure than last year? We don’t know,” said Cottarelli, a former Italian senator and director with the International Monetary Fund who teaches at Milan’s Catholic University of the Sacred Heart.

The Italian government first committed to hitting 2% in April, thus getting Italian spending to the level first promised to NATO in 2014 and never attained.

The announcement was made ahead of the NATO conference in June when members agreed to raise spending again to 3.5% of GDP by 2035, plus another 1.5% on defense-related infrastructure spending.

Rome released the first details of how it would hit 2% in October with the much-delayed release of its 2025 defense budget.

The document said Italy would spend €31.3 billion on defense this year, up 7.2% on last year, but added that various expenditures were being reclassified as defense spending to boost the budget further - at least on paper.

Pension outlays would be included, as well as other budgets which would be given “a more military focus.” The document also stated that “military cooperation projects” would be factored in.

Adding those outlays would make official spending shoot up by €14 billion to €45.3 billion, hitting the 2% target, the document stated.

Italian then-Senator Carlo Cottarelli attends the Trento Economy Festival on May 26, 2023, in Trento, Italy. (Roberto Serra - Iguana Press/Getty Images)

In a report produced by Cottarelli last month, the economist quoted a statement to parliament given this year by Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto in which the minister said reaching 2% had also involved including spending by Italy’s tax police and coast guard, as well as outlays on space and cyber defense.

“Just as other countries do,” Crosetto said.

But Cottarelli argued in his report the scant detail on the new spending was insufficient.

“It’s not clear from the words of the minister or from official documents what this reclassification consists of. Is it existing spending that now has a ‘more military’ connotation than in the past, or has it been understood that some spending is more military than previously thought? Additionally it is not known which spending is involved,” Cottarelli wrote.

He told Defense News no new information had been released since he wrote the report.

The Italian defense ministry did not respond to requests for comment.

Despite the complaint of lack of information about the massive leap to 2%, a NATO official told Defense News that NATO was satisfied with Italy’s reclassification of spending.

“The defense expenditures declared by Italy are consistent with the NATO definition of defense expenditure and the approach is also applied by other allies,” the official said.

Asked to give a breakdown of the spending Italy has reclassified as defense spending, the official stated, “I refer you to the Italian authorities, for any further comments in this respect.”

Tom Kington is the Italy correspondent for Defense News.

罗马——意大利一位著名经济学家抱怨说，意大利今年通过改变对国防开支的定义，将预算增加了 140 亿欧元（163 亿美元），但却未能解释其具体做法。

卡洛·科塔雷利表示，意大利在账面上将支出从 2024 年占 GDP 的约 1.5% 提高到 2025 年的 2%，但“没有明确解释”它是如何做到的。

“我们应该认为自己比去年更安全吗？我们不知道，”科塔雷利说道。他曾是意大利参议员，也曾在国际货币基金组织担任董事，目前在米兰圣心天主教大学任教。

意大利政府在 4 月份首次承诺将军费开支提高到 2%，从而使意大利的军费开支达到 2014 年首次向北约承诺但从未实现的水平。

该声明是在 6 月份北约会议召开前发布的，当时成员国同意到 2035 年将国防开支再次提高到 GDP 的 3.5%，外加 1.5% 用于国防相关基础设施支出。

罗马方面在10月份公布了其2025年国防预算的初步细节，该预算的发布姗姗来迟，但最终还是实现了2%的财政收入增长目标。

该文件称，意大利今年将在国防上花费 313 亿欧元，比去年增长 7.2%，但又补充说，各种支出正在被重新归类为国防开支，以进一步增加预算——至少在账面上是这样。

养老金支出将被纳入预算，其他预算也将“更加侧重于军事方面”。该文件还指出，“军事合作项目”也将被纳入考量。

文件指出，加上这些支出，官方支出将飙升 140 亿欧元，达到 453 亿欧元，达到 2% 的目标。

2023年5月26日，时任意大利参议员卡洛·科塔雷利出席在意大利特伦托举行的特伦托经济节。（图片来源：Roberto Serra - Iguana Press/Getty Images）

科塔雷利上个月发布的一份报告中，这位经济学家引用了意大利国防部长圭多·克罗塞托今年在议会发表的声明。克罗塞托在声明中表示，达到 2% 的目标还包括意大利税务警察和海岸警卫队的支出，以及太空和网络防御方面的支出。

克罗塞托说：“其他国家也是如此。”

但科塔雷利在他的报告中指出，关于新增支出的细节太少，不足以说明问题。

科塔雷利写道：“从部长的言论或官方文件中，我们无法清楚地了解此次重新分类的具体内容。是指现有支出现在比以往更具‘军事’含义，还是指某些支出被认为比之前认为的更具军事性质？此外，我们也不清楚具体涉及哪些支出。”

他告诉《防务新闻》，自从他撰写报告以来，没有发布任何新的信息。

意大利国防部未回应置评请求。

尽管有人抱怨缺乏关于大幅跃升至 2% 的信息，但一位北约官员告诉《防务新闻》，北约对意大利重新划分开支类别的做法感到满意。

这位官员表示：“意大利申报的国防开支符合北约对国防开支的定义，其他盟国也采用了这种做法。”

当被要求详细说明意大利重新归类为国防开支的支出时，这位官员表示：“关于这方面的任何进一步评论，请咨询意大利当局。”

汤姆·金顿是《防务新闻》驻意大利记者。