Why Trump’s effort to build more refineries won’t lower gas prices

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President Donald Trump wants to reverse the decades-long decline in the number of US refineries in operation, which he believes is key to lowering gas prices, and he recently called oil executives to the White House to make that push.

“President Trump and his entire energy team will continue supporting reopening shuttered refineries, expanding the capacity of existing refineries, and constructing new refineries to lower prices and strengthen our national security,” White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers told CNN.

But more US refineries won’t bring down prices in the near term and aren’t likely to take place in the long term either.

A new oil refinery with significant unit capacity hasn’t been built in America since 1977, and there were about twice as many oil refineries operating in 1982 as there are today. And even if a building boom were to start tomorrow, it would take years to produce the gasoline and diesel needed to alleviate current prices.

American oil companies, meanwhile, aren’t exactly rushing to build refineries. While the industry is wildly profitable, it’s also aware that the current energy market disruptions are temporary.

The spike in gas prices, triggered by wars in Iran and Ukraine, won’t last long enough to warrant the years of construction and multi-billion-dollar investment needed to build new refineries.

“What’s the Strait of Hormuz going to look like in four to five years?” said John Auers, marketing director of refined fuels at data analytics firm Novi Labs. “The assumption is it’ll be opened by then, and Russian refineries will be back to normal. So, it doesn’t really matter what’s happening now or next year when making plans for a major expansion project.”

Refining capacity that is limited worldwide, rather than just in the United States, is a major reason for the spike in fuel prices this year, even more so than the Iran war cutting off crude oil shipments in the Strait of Hormuz.

“In my 35 years in the refining business, there’s been an excess (refining) supply,” ExxonMobil CEO Darren Wood told CNBC earlier this summer. “(But now) we have a refinery constraint. So, pump prices are being established by supply and demand of refining products — not crude.”

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Refineries in the Middle East and Russia have been damaged by military attacks. Russia, long a major exporter of refined fuel, is now a net importer due to fuel shortages at home, and even the facilities still operating in the Persian Gulf can’t export as much product due to ongoing shipping disruptions.

It’s not the modest drop in US refining capacity in recent years that has increased prices, Auers said. “The problem is we’ve lost 2 million barrels per day of supply combined between Russia and the Middle East to global markets. That is huge in a market that was already fairly tight.”

Oil prices have surged this year, recently climbing back above $100 a barrel . But despite the higher input cost for refiners, the sky-high prices for the products they sell have inflated their margins to record levels.

US refiners now bring in about $100-a-barrel profit for diesel, and about $40 to $50 a barrel for gasoline, said Tom Kloza, an independent oil analyst and advisor to Gulf Oil.

“These numbers aren’t just off the chart — they’re out of the galaxy,” he said.

That’s made the economics of running a refinery incredibly profitable, so US refineries have been running at nearly 100% capacity this year, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Exxon’s Wood told investors earlier this year that the company had even deferred any maintenance to maintain output and profitability. The company raked in $14.5 billion in profit in the second quarter , more than double compared to the same quarter last year. But it can’t safely defer maintenance forever.

“The utilization that we’ve seen can’t be sustained for the long term,” Wood told CNBC.

Temporary shutdowns for maintenance will be inevitable later this year, said Auers. That will result in some reduction in the supply, pushing up prices.

Despite a sharp drop in the number of refineries over the last 45 years, the US has been able to get all the gas it needs from those that remain.

Many of those that closed were smaller, less competitive refineries, Auers said. Plus, improved technology and efficiency — along with the expansion of the surviving refineries — meant that US capacity actually grew over time.

Output rose 16% from 1999 to a record high of 18.6 million barrels a day in 2019, according to the EIA. It’s only down 3% since then. Meanwhile, Americans use less gasoline due to better fuel efficiency, more electric vehicles on the road and the rise of remote work.

US gas prices rose quickly after the start of the Iran war in late February and have remained high, climbing more than crude oil prices.

The national average price for gas on Saturday was $4.31 a gallon, according to data from AAA, the highest price on record for September. Diesel just crossed the $6-a-gallon mark for the first time on record. Jet fuel has been at its highest point since April.

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But don’t expect more US refineries to change that anytime soon.

First and foremost, it takes at least three years to significantly expand existing oil refineries, even longer for a new one.

Auers noted that even if a refinery has been designed and ready for environmental review, “you’re still looking at four to five years until it’s going to start producing.”

Also, that extra capacity would need to be operational for decades for the investment to pay off. Uncertainty about future US regulations and demand makes such long-term investments risky.

Excluding the pandemic, “gasoline demand this summer will probably be the lowest for a summer period since 2001,” said Kloza.

“North America is the best continent to be a refiner at the moment, and probably for the next five to 10 years,” he said. “Beyond that, who knows?”

That’s likely why oil companies are more interested in taking their current windfall profits and investing in oil exploration or pipelines, which have more immediate payoffs, or returning the money to shareholders.

“They’re putting it back in (stock) buybacks and dividends,” said Auers. Even when oil companies such as Marathon and Phillips 66 invest their windfall profits back into their business, “ most of their capital expenditures over the past few years have been in midstream (such as pipelines), not on the refining side. That’s because that’s where Wall Street wanted them to put their money.”

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唐纳德·特朗普总统希望扭转美国炼油厂数量数十年来持续下降的趋势，他认为这是降低汽油价格的关键。最近，他召集石油公司高管到白宫，以推动这一目标的实现。

白宫发言人泰勒·罗杰斯告诉美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）：“特朗普总统及其整个能源团队将继续支持重新开放关闭的炼油厂，扩大现有炼油厂的产能，并建设新的炼油厂，以降低价格并加强我们的国家安全。”

但美国炼油厂数量的增加短期内不会降低油价，长期来看也不太可能实现。

自1977年以来，美国就没有新建过产能较大的炼油厂，而1982年炼油厂的数量大约是现在的两倍。即使明天就启动炼油厂建设热潮，也需要数年时间才能生产出缓解当前油价所需的汽油和柴油。

与此同时，美国石油公司并没有急于兴建炼油厂。尽管石油行业利润丰厚，但它们也意识到，当前的能源市场动荡只是暂时的。

伊朗和乌克兰战争引发的天然气价格飙升，持续时间不会足够长，不足以弥补建造新炼油厂所需的数年建设时间和数十亿美元的投资。

“霍尔木兹海峡四五年后会是什么样子？”数据分析公司Novi Labs的成品油市场总监约翰·奥尔斯说道，“我们假设届时海峡已经开通，俄罗斯炼油厂也将恢复正常运转。因此，在制定大型扩建项目计划时，现在或明年的情况其实并不重要。”

今年燃油价格飙升的主要原因是全球炼油能力有限，而不仅仅是美国，其影响甚至超过了伊朗战争切断霍尔木兹海峡原油运输。

埃克森美孚首席执行官达伦·伍德今年夏天早些时候接受CNBC采访时表示：“在我从事炼油行业的35年里，炼油产能一直过剩。（但现在）我们面临炼油产能受限的问题。因此，零售油价是由炼油产品的供需关系决定的，而不是原油价格。”

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中东和俄罗斯的炼油厂遭到军事袭击，遭到破坏。俄罗斯长期以来一直是成品油的主要出口国，但由于国内燃料短缺，现在已成为净进口国；即使是波斯湾仍在运营的炼油厂，也因持续的航运中断而无法出口那么多产品。

奥尔斯表示，近年来美国炼油产能的小幅下降并非油价上涨的原因。“问题在于，俄罗斯和中东合计每天向全球市场减少了200万桶的供应。在一个原本就相当紧张的市场中，这无疑是一个巨大的损失。”

今年油价飙升，近期再次攀升至每桶100美元以上。尽管炼油厂的投入成本上升，但由于其产品价格高企，利润率也达到了历史新高。

独立石油分析师兼海湾石油公司顾问汤姆·克洛扎表示，美国炼油商目前每桶柴油的利润约为 100 美元，每桶汽油的利润约为 40 至 50 美元。

“这些数字不仅超出了图表范围，简直是超乎想象，”他说。

据美国能源信息署称，这使得炼油厂的运营利润非常丰厚，因此今年美国炼油厂的产能利用率接近 100%。

埃克森美孚首席执行官伍德今年早些时候告诉投资者，公司甚至推迟了所有维护工作，以维持产量和盈利能力。该公司第二季度利润高达145亿美元，比去年同期增长了一倍多。但公司不可能永远推迟维护工作。

伍德告诉CNBC：“我们看到的这种利用率无法长期持续下去。”

奥尔斯表示，今年晚些时候，由于维护需要，临时停产将不可避免。这将导致供应减少，从而推高价格。

尽管过去 45 年里炼油厂的数量急剧下降，但美国仍然能够从剩下的炼油厂获得其所需的所有天然气。

奥尔斯表示，许多关闭的炼油厂规模较小，竞争力也较弱。此外，技术的进步和效率的提高，以及幸存炼油厂的扩建，意味着美国的炼油产能实际上随着时间的推移而增长。

据美国能源信息署（EIA）的数据显示，1999年至2019年间，美国石油产量增长了16%，达到创纪录的每日1860万桶。此后仅下降了3%。与此同时，由于燃油效率的提高、电动汽车的普及以及远程办公的兴起，美国人的汽油消耗量有所下降。

自2月底伊朗战争爆发以来，美国汽油价格迅速上涨，并一直居高不下，涨幅超过了原油价格。

据美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据显示，周六全美汽油平均价格为每加仑4.31美元，创下9月份历史新高。柴油价格也首次突破每加仑6美元大关。航空燃油价格则达到4月份以来的最高点。

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但不要指望美国更多的炼油厂会在短期内改变这种状况。

首先，大幅扩建现有炼油厂至少需要三年时间，新建炼油厂则需要更长时间。

奥尔斯指出，即使炼油厂已经设计完成并准备好进行环境评估，“距离它开始生产还有四到五年时间”。

此外，新增产能需要运营数十年才能收回投资成本。未来美国监管政策和市场需求的不确定性使得此类长期投资风险较高。

克洛扎表示，如果不考虑疫情的影响，“今年夏季的汽油需求可能是自 2001 年以来夏季期间的最低水平”。

“目前，北美是炼油厂的最佳选址，而且未来五到十年可能也是如此，”他说。“至于之后会怎样，谁也说不准。”

这可能就是为什么石油公司更热衷于将当前的意外之财投资于石油勘探或管道建设（这些投资能带来更直接的回报），或者将资金返还给股东的原因。

“他们把钱重新投入到股票回购和分红中，”奥尔斯说。即使像马拉松石油公司和菲利普斯66石油公司这样的石油公司将意外之财重新投资于业务，“过去几年，它们的大部分资本支出都集中在中游领域（例如管道建设），而不是炼油环节。这是因为华尔街希望它们把钱投到那里。”