Panama Canal restricts traffic amid Hormuz crisis: Why this matters

Limits on the number of vessels in the canal could create shipping delays and increase freight costs.

The Panamanian-flagged tanker G Spirit enters the Agua Clara lock at the Panama Canal, in Colon, Panama, September 1 [AFP]

While shipping remains severely disrupted in the Strait of Hormuz, shippers are facing new constraints at another strategic maritime chokepoint on the other side of the world: the Panama Canal.

From this week, the number of vessels permitted to pass through the canal per day will begin to fall because of low water levels, canal authorities say.

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Here’s what we know about the latest measures at the canal, which handles some 5 percent of global maritime trade , according to the Panama Canal authority.

What restrictions are being introduced in the Panama Canal?

From Thursday, only 34 vessels will be permitted to sail daily through the canal, which has traditionally been able to accommodate up to 40 per day.

On September 15, the cap will drop further to 32.

The Panama Canal Authority, the body which oversees the waterway, says the new limits are necessary as the country braces for lower water levels due to the El Nino weather phenomenon .

In the area of the canal, rainfall from May to August is down by 34 percent from its historical average, the authority said, adding that El Nino could cut it even more.

The authority has already implemented other water conservation measures, such as lowering the maximum draft – the vessel’s depth in the water – for the largest ships.

How significant is the Panama Canal for world trade?

Some $270bn of cargo passed through the canal in 2024, according to research by Al Jazeera. The passageway accounted for 40 percent of all US container traffic and 2.5 percent of all global sea trade.

This year, according to the Panama Canal authority, that has risen to 5 percent of all global sea trade, with 70 percent destined for or originating in the US.

Has traffic in the Panama Canal been increasing this year?

At the end of June, Panama Canal administrator Ricaurte Vasquez Morales said more than 10,000 vessels had transited the canal over the previous nine months, up 5.2 percent from the same period a year earlier, driven largely by increases in container ships and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers.

He also said the canal’s total vessel tonnage was 7.2 percent higher during the same period.

How has the Hormuz crisis contributed to this?

With Gulf producers unable to export as much oil through the Strait of Hormuz as they did before the war – about 20 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) – countries are increasingly turning to North and South America to make up supplies, driving more traffic towards the Panama Canal.

The effect has been particularly pronounced for crude oil exports from the United States, which leapt by 46 percent year-on-year to a record 61.6 million metric tonnes in the second quarter of 2026, according to global trade intelligence firm Kpler – equivalent to about 450 million barrels in total, or an average of about 5 million bpd.

Brazil, Argentina and Guyana have all posted record shipments of oil so far in 2026.

What impact will the new Panama restrictions have?

The rise in cargoes needing to be shipped through the canal is already creating a bidding war for transit slots in the canal.

While average auction prices for transit slots were $55,000 between October last year and February this year, the recent surge in demand has caused those prices to jump three-fold, according to the canal’s authority.

One South Korean ship paid a record $5.3m to pass through the canal on September 1, according to Bloomberg News.

Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO), an international shipping association, said the canal’s new restrictions will put more pressure on shipping, pushing some vessels to reroute and make longer, more costly journeys around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa.

“Reduced cargo capacity, combined with higher auction prices for transit slots, is likely to push freight rates higher,” Rasmussen told Al Jazeera.

Container cargo moving from Asia to the US’s east coast, as well as LPG exports from the US Gulf to Asia and the western coasts of Central and South America, could be particularly affected, he added.

限制运河内船舶数量可能会造成航运延误并增加货运成本。

9月1日，悬挂巴拿马国旗的油轮“G Spirit”号驶入巴拿马运河科隆港的阿瓜克拉拉船闸。[法新社]

尽管霍尔木兹海峡的航运仍然受到严重干扰，但航运者在世界另一端的另一个战略性海上咽喉要道——巴拿马运河——也面临着新的限制。

运河管理部门表示，由于水位较低，从本周开始，每天允许通过运河的船只数量将开始减少。

列表 1/3：霍尔木兹海峡危机后，亚洲寻求在更靠近本土的地方储存石油和天然气

特朗普在伊朗战争期间提议将霍尔木兹海峡更名为特朗普海峡（共3条记录，此为第2条）

列表 3/3：美国正在大量购买委内瑞拉石油，但这会降低燃油价格吗？

以下是我们对巴拿马运河最新措施的了解，据巴拿马运河管理局称，该运河承担着全球约 5% 的海上贸易。

巴拿马运河正在实施哪些限制措施？

从周四开始，每天只允许 34 艘船只通过运河，而传统上每天最多可容纳 40 艘船只。

9月15日，上限将进一步降至32。

负责监管该水道的巴拿马运河管理局表示，由于厄尔尼诺现象导致水位下降，巴拿马正在为此做好准备，因此有必要实施新的限制措施。

该机构表示，运河地区的降雨量在 5 月至 8 月期间比历史平均水平下降了 34%，并补充说，厄尔尼诺现象可能会进一步减少降雨量。

该部门已经实施了其他节水措施，例如降低最大船舶的最大吃水深度。

巴拿马运河对世界贸易有多重要？

据半岛电视台的研究显示，2024年约有2700亿美元的货物通过运河运输。该航道占美国集装箱运输总量的40%，占全球海运贸易总量的2.5%。

据巴拿马运河管理局称，今年这一比例已上升至全球海运贸易的 5%，其中 70% 的货物运往美国或始发于美国。

今年巴拿马运河的交通量是否有所增加？

6月底，巴拿马运河管理局局长里考特·巴斯克斯·莫拉莱斯表示，在过去的九个月里，已有超过10000艘船只通过了运河，比去年同期增长了5.2%，这主要是由于集装箱船和液化石油气（LPG）运输船数量的增加。

他还表示，同期运河船舶总吨位增长了7.2%。

霍尔木兹海峡危机对此有何影响？

由于海湾产油国无法像战前那样通过霍尔木兹海峡出口那么多石油（每天约 2000 万桶），各国越来越多地转向北美和南美来补充供应，导致更多石油流向巴拿马运河。

这一影响对美国原油出口尤为显著。据全球贸易情报公司 Kpler 的数据显示，2026 年第二季度，美国原油出口同比增长 46%，达到创纪录的 6160 万吨，相当于总计约 4.5 亿桶，或平均每天约 500 万桶。

巴西、阿根廷和圭亚那在2026年迄今为止的石油出货量均创下历史新高。

新的巴拿马限制措施会产生什么影响？

需要通过运河运输的货物数量不断增加，已经引发了对运河过境时段的竞价战。

据运河管理部门称，虽然去年 10 月至今年 2 月期间，过境时段的平均拍卖价格为 55,000 美元，但最近需求的激增导致这些价格上涨了三倍。

据彭博新闻社报道，9月1日，一艘韩国船只支付了创纪录的530万美元通过运河。

波罗的海国际海事理事会（BIMCO）首席航运分析师尼尔斯·拉斯穆森表示，运河的新限制将给航运带来更大的压力，迫使一些船舶改道，绕道南非好望角，进行更长、更昂贵的航程。

拉斯穆森告诉半岛电视台：“货运能力下降，加上转运时段拍卖价格上涨，可能会推高货运价格。”

他还补充说，从亚洲运往美国东海岸的集装箱货物，以及从美国墨西哥湾向亚洲和中南美洲西海岸出口的液化石油气，可能会受到特别大的影响。