How much oil is going through Hormuz? How data doesn’t match US claims

Trump says the US is helping around 30 ships cross the waterway daily, but ship-tracking data suggests the number is far fewer.

Vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, September 2, 2026 [Reuters]

The United States and Iran continue to make competing claims about who has greater control of the critical Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf.

Washington claims the strait is open and that dozens of ships, carrying millions of barrels of oil, are passing through each day. US President Donald Trump claimed last month that the US was in “total control” of the waterway, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas is shipped during peacetime, but which has been closed since the US-Israel war on Iran began six months ago.

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Iran, however, says the strait remains under its control and is closed except to pre-approved vessels using its designated channels. It has warned that other ships attempting to transit risk being targeted.

So what is really going on in the strait – and what explains the divergent accounts?

What are the latest US claims about the Strait of Hormuz?

The US says shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has significantly increased in recent weeks.

Two US officials told CNN that 40 commercial ships carrying some 18 million barrels of oil passed through the strait under US military escort on Tuesday, in what would be a new wartime record.

Trump gave a similar figure on Monday, saying the US Navy was helping some 30 ships pass through Hormuz every night. He later said the waterway was “under USA control”.

In terms of oil, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that at least 10 million barrels were getting through the strait each day, and claimed that 18 million had passed through on Tuesday.

The assessment comes after US CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper claimed last week that the US military had cleared Hormuz’s transit lanes of sea mines.

Before the war began, an average of around 100 ships and 20 million barrels of oil are estimated to have passed through the waterway each day.

According to figures from PortWatch, this has fallen to an overall average of seven vessels since March.

What does Iran claim about the strait?

Iran has acknowledged that some vessels are getting through the strait, but insists it remains in control of the waterway.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf on Tuesday said “the enemy managed to get some ships” through Hormuz, but stressed that Iranian forces remain “in complete control of the strait and will not allow it to be opened”.

Ghalibaf accused the US of giving ships “false guarantees” about their ability to cross a southern route in Hormuz, warning that ships that try to do so would be targeted.

The following day, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed two oil tankers had hit mines and were disabled while trying to cross an “illegal route” in the strait. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, claimed an Iranian attack hit a Saudi oil tanker, killing two Filipino sailors.

What does shipping data show?

The latest ship-tracking data paints a different picture than the US claims, with far fewer vessels recorded as transiting the strait.

According to marine analytics firm Kpler, just six vessels crossed the strait on Wednesday, 11 on Tuesday and five on Monday. It put the 10-day average at 13 vessels per day.

Other ship-trafficking services show a similar pattern. Maritime data firm Lloyd’s List Intelligence recorded an average of around 12 transits per day from August 26 to September 1, though the latest data may be incomplete “due to a lag in identifying dark transits”, said the firm’s maritime intelligence and research director, Bridget Diakun. This means that some ships are switching off their tracking beacons.

From August 17-23, Lloyd’s List Intelligence recorded “about 14 non-Iranian-linked ships each day”, Diakun told Al Jazeera.

All these figures are far lower than the US claim that 40 ships transited the strait on Tuesday.

The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), which monitors threats to shipping in the region, said in a September 1 advisory that commercial traffic through Hormuz was “far below baseline”, despite a “modest uptick from recent lows”.

The advisory put the risk level for Hormuz at “severe”, citing a “continued risk of drifting or uncharted mines”, despite US claims to have cleared the strait of mines.

What explains the discrepancy?

Diakun told Al Jazeera that it is difficult to explain the gap between US-claimed transit figures and those recorded by ship trackers without insight into how the US tallies its own figures.

She said it’s possible the US includes smaller or non-cargo-carrying ships in its total, unlike Lloyd’s, which only counts “cargo-carrying vessels over 10,000 dwt [deadweight tonnage]”.

Eirik Hooper, a senior associate covering the ports and terminals sector for maritime research consultancy Drewry, also pointed to possible differences in how the US counts vessel transits.

“A US operational count plausibly includes everything that moved under or near naval protection: naval auxiliaries, offshore support and tugs, coastal and small craft [and] dhows,” said Hooper, noting that ship-tracking firm Kpler filters out such vessels “on size or cargo grounds”.

Hooper also said the US has access to “satellite, airborne and other sensor coverage plus its own convoy manifests”, which enables it to see vessels not immediately picked up by the normal automatic identification system (AIS) tracking system.

“By late August, the majority of Hormuz crossings were classified ‘dark’ or unknown by route, and AIS data counts often need to be revised to include vessels that switch off their transponders, with confirmed movements backdated,” said Hooper.

More generally, both the US and Iran have an incentive to play up their influence in the strait, the status of which has become a major sticking point in their six-month conflict.

Former US Ambassador Henry Ensher recently told Al Jazeera that he believes the latest cycle of US-Iran confrontation was likely triggered by CENTCOM’s claims to have de-mined that strait, and said “both sides would be well served to stop talking quite so much”.

特朗普称美国每天帮助大约 30 艘船只穿越该水道，但船舶追踪数据显示实际数量远低于此。

2026年9月2日，从阿曼穆桑达姆看到的霍尔木兹海峡附近的船只 [路透社]

美国和伊朗继续就谁对波斯湾至关重要的霍尔木兹海峡拥有更大的控制权展开争夺。

华盛顿方面声称海峡畅通，每天都有数十艘载有数百万桶石油的船只通过。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普上个月宣称，美国“完全控制”了这条水道。和平时期，全球五分之一的石油和天然气都要经过这条水道运输，但自六个月前美以对伊朗发动战争以来，这条水道一直处于关闭状态。

特朗普称美国“监视”伊朗的一切行动，并威胁将发动进一步袭击（共3条，此为第1条）

列表 2/3：美国海军“亚伯拉罕·林肯”号航空母舰在海上航行 9 个月后抵达泰国

沙特阿拉伯谴责伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡对油轮发动致命袭击（共3条，此为第3条）

然而，伊朗方面表示，该海峡仍处于其控制之下，除事先获得批准并使用其指定航道的船只外，其他船只均不得通行。伊朗警告称，其他试图通过该海峡的船只将面临被攻击的风险。

那么海峡里究竟发生了什么？又是什么原因导致了各种不同的说法？

美国对霍尔木兹海峡的最新主张是什么？

美国方面表示，近几周来，途经霍尔木兹海峡的航运量显著增加。

两名美国官员告诉 CNN，周二，40 艘载有约 1800 万桶石油的商船在美国军方的护送下通过了海峡，这将创下新的战时纪录。

特朗普周一也给出了类似的数字，称美国海军每晚都在协助约30艘船只通过霍尔木兹海峡。他随后表示，这条水道“在美国的控制之下”。

就石油而言，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周二表示，每天至少有 1000 万桶石油通过海峡，并声称周二当天有 1800 万桶石油通过了海峡。

此前，美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀上周声称，美军已经清除了霍尔木兹岛过境航道上的水雷。

战争爆发前，据估计平均每天约有 100 艘船只和 2000 万桶石油通过这条水道。

根据 PortWatch 的数据，自 3 月以来，这一数字已降至平均每天 7 艘。

伊朗对该海峡有何主张？

伊朗承认有一些船只能够通过海峡，但坚称它仍然控制着这条水道。

伊朗议会议长穆罕默德·巴格尔·加利巴夫周二表示，“敌人设法让一些船只”通过了霍尔木兹海峡，但他强调，伊朗军队仍然“完全控制着海峡，不会允许它被打开”。

加利巴夫指责美国向船只提供关于其穿越霍尔木兹海峡南部航线的“虚假保证”，并警告说，试图穿越该航线的船只将成为攻击目标。

次日，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队声称两艘油轮在试图穿越海峡“非法航线”时触雷沉没。与此同时，沙特阿拉伯声称伊朗袭击了一艘沙特油轮，造成两名菲律宾船员丧生。

航运数据显示了什么？

最新的船舶追踪数据显示，经过海峡的船只数量远少于美国方面的说法。

据海洋分析公司Kpler的数据显示，周三只有6艘船通过了海峡，周二有11艘，周一有5艘。过去10天的平均通行船只数量为每天13艘。

其他船舶追踪服务也显示出类似的模式。海事数据公司劳氏情报（Lloyd's List Intelligence）记录显示，从8月26日至9月1日，平均每天约有12艘船舶通过该航线，但该公司海事情报与研究总监布里奇特·迪亚昆（Bridget Diakun）表示，最新数据可能并不完整，“因为识别暗航事件存在滞后”。这意味着一些船舶正在关闭其追踪信标。

迪亚昆告诉半岛电视台，从 8 月 17 日至 23 日，劳氏情报公司记录到“每天约有 14 艘与伊朗无关的船只”。

所有这些数字都远低于美国声称的周二有 40 艘船只通过海峡的说法。

负责监测该地区航运威胁的联合海事信息中心 (JMIC) 在 9 月 1 日的一份咨询报告中表示，尽管霍尔木兹海峡的商业交通量“较近期低点略有回升”，但仍“远低于基线水平”。

该警告将霍尔木兹海峡的风险等级定为“严重”，理由是“漂移水雷或未知水雷的风险依然存在”，尽管美国声称已经清除了海峡中的水雷。

造成这种差异的原因是什么？

迪亚昆告诉半岛电视台，如果不了解美国是如何统计自己的数据的，就很难解释美国声称的过境人数与船舶追踪器记录的人数之间的差距。

她表示，美国有可能将较小或非货运船舶计入总数，这与劳氏船级社不同，劳氏船级社只计算“载重吨超过 10,000 吨的货运船舶”。

海事研究咨询公司 Drewry 负责港口和码头领域的资深助理 Eirik Hooper 也指出，美国在统计船舶过境次数方面可能存在差异。

“美国作战统计很可能包括所有在海军保护下或附近移动的船只：海军辅助舰艇、海上支援舰艇和拖船、沿海和小船以及独桅帆船，”胡珀说，并指出船舶追踪公司 Kpler 会“根据尺寸或货物情况”将此类船只排除在外。

胡珀还表示，美国可以利用“卫星、机载和其他传感器覆盖范围以及自己的船队清单”，这使得美国能够看到普通自动识别系统 (AIS) 跟踪系统无法立即发现的船只。

“到 8 月下旬，大多数霍尔木兹海峡的航行都被归类为‘暗航’或航线未知，AIS 数据计数通常需要修订，以包括关闭应答器的船舶，并回溯已确认的航行日期，”胡珀说。

更广泛地说，美国和伊朗都有动机去提升自己在海峡的影响力，而海峡的地位已成为两国长达六个月冲突中的一个主要症结所在。

美国前大使亨利·恩舍尔最近告诉半岛电视台，他认为美伊最新一轮对抗很可能是由美国中央司令部声称已清除海峡地雷而引发的，并表示“双方最好都少说点话”。