British Army chief talks Taliban, TikTok and the United States

LONDON — Britain’s Army chief came to DSEI to make a keynote speech about the Army’s transformation plans and efforts to embrace data, digitization and cutting-edge technologies . But reporters were more interested in asking him about Afghanistan and the recent withdrawal , in which the British military played a significant role.

Gen. Mark Carleton-Smith, the chief of the general staff, told reporters following a Sept. 15 speech at the London event that the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan carriers potential international risks.

“I’m acutely conscience of the risk of potential spillover and regional instability. The decision to withdraw is not necessarily the end of the war, but clearly marks the end of the decisive, direct American phase of that war,” he said.

But he had a warning for the Taliban too: Afghanistan had changed significantly over the 20 years of military intervention by the U.S. and its allies, with a substantial number of citizens buying mobile phones and a high percentage of the population less than 26 years old.

“This is the TikTok, Instagram generation. I can’t predict how it will play out, but that is a very significant genie that is already out of the bottle and may prove difficult even for the Taliban,” he said.

Asked about lessons learned in Afghanistan, Carleton-Smith said the big takeaway is that people must be “realistic about what the military instrument is designed for and therefore can achieve.”

“I always felt that it was entirely probable we could build an indigenous capability to keep the lid on a low-level rural insurgency. But [it’s] incredible to assume that when we left — and there was always going to be a time when we did go — that we would leave behind an entirely benign Afghanistan,” he said.

The general added that Britain underestimated how long it would take to build a secure Afghanistan and underestimated the relative patience of democracies.

He also briefly discussed the role of the United States in Afghanistan.

“It’s not helpful now to argue the relative actions. I think we have to recognize it was an American decision, but it was a decision that was not taken lightly,” he said. “One needs to respect the view that the American administration decided they weren’t in the market for an indefinite commitment and it wasn’t worth the enduring costs.”

“They probably came to that conclusion that, over the last 20 years, the geostrategic context had changed substantially,” he added. “Afghanistan needed to find its own place in terms of U.S. priorities, and what we have seen over this summer is a very clear set of amended American strategic priorities.”

Andrew Chuter is the United Kingdom correspondent for Defense News.

伦敦——英国陆军总司令来到DSEI防务展，发表关于陆军转型计划以及在数据、数字化和尖端技术应用方面所做努力的主题演讲。但记者们更感兴趣的是询问他有关阿富汗以及近期撤军的问题，英国军队在这次撤军行动中扮演了重要角色。

总参谋长马克·卡尔顿-史密斯将军在9月15日于伦敦举行的活动上发表讲话后告诉记者，塔利班接管阿富汗会带来潜在的国际风险。

“我深切意识到潜在的溢出效应和地区不稳定风险。撤军的决定并不一定意味着战争的结束，但显然标志着这场战争中美国直接介入的决定性阶段的结束，”他说。

但他同时也向塔利班发出警告：在美军及其盟友 20 年的军事干预下，阿富汗发生了巨大的变化，大量公民购买了手机，而且 26 岁以下的人口比例很高。

“这是TikTok和Instagram的时代。我无法预测未来会如何发展，但这就像一个打开了潘多拉魔盒的精灵，即使对塔利班来说，也可能难以控制，”他说。

当被问及在阿富汗吸取的教训时，卡尔顿-史密斯表示，最大的教训是人们必须“对军事工具的设计用途以及因此能够取得的成就保持现实的态度”。

“我一直觉得我们完全有可能建立起本土能力，控制住低烈度的农村叛乱。但是，认为我们离开后——而我们终究会离开——会留下一个完全和平的阿富汗，这简直是天方夜谭，”他说。

这位将军还补充说，英国低估了建立一个安全的阿富汗所需的时间，也低估了民主国家的相对耐心。

他还简要讨论了美国在阿富汗扮演的角色。

“现在争论双方行动的相对性已经没有意义了。我认为我们必须承认这是美国做出的决定，但这个决定并非轻率之举，”他说。“我们需要尊重美国政府的观点，他们认为美国不希望做出无限期的承诺，而且这样做的长期代价也不值得。”

他补充说：“他们可能得出这样的结论：过去20年里，地缘战略格局发生了巨大变化。阿富汗需要在美国的优先事项中找到自己的位置，而我们在今年夏天看到的，正是美国一系列非常清晰的战略优先事项的调整。”

Andrew Chuter 是《防务新闻》的英国记者。