What’s behind the vote-by-mail controversy in the US?

As midterm elections approach in November, a legal battle is ensuing over attempts to regulate mail-in voting.

A voter casts her ballot at a polling station in a Republican primary run-off in South Carolina on August 25 [Sam Wolfe/Reuters]

Voters across the United States are set to take part in midterm elections on November 3.

But with two months left until polling day, a major legal battle is taking place that could throw the entire process into chaos.

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Acting on election fraud concerns raised by President Donald Trump, the US Postal Service (USPS) is scrambling to take steps purportedly to ensure the security of mail-in ballots.

Roughly 48 million US voters cast their ballots through the mail, as of 2024. Critics have warned that restricting the process could disenfranchise groups who rely on mail-in voting ahead of the critical midterm vote.

In late August, however, the Supreme Court granted an emergency request to allow the Trump administration to proceed with its reforms.

That has injected uncertainty into the last-minute election preparations, with early voting slated to begin in some states as early as September.

On Tuesday, Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal made public a whistleblower complaint he received detailing problems with the Postal Service’s plans to restrict mail-in voting.

“Their system is set up to fail – and risk the right to vote for millions of Americans who cast their ballots by mail,” Blumenthal said in a statement.

What changes are under way? Why are they happening now? And what lies inside the whistleblower complaint? We unpack that and more in this explainer.

What prompted these changes?

Trump has long claimed , without proof, that his opposition, the Democratic Party, is involved in rigging elections.

To justify that statement, he has made two intertwined but unsubstantiated allegations.

First, he maintains that Democratic-led states are allowing non-citizens to vote. Second, he argues that states are not doing enough to secure the millions of mail-in ballots sent out each election season.

But experts and election officials have cast doubt on those assertions.

“There’s a mythology that mass-mail ballots are being mailed to nobody by election offices, just phantom people being mailed ballots,” said Stephen Richer, a former Republican election official who now serves as a fellow at the Cato Institute think tank and a lecturer at Harvard University.

Election fraud is incredibly rare, and experts say the few documented instances have not swayed election outcomes.

Why spread election fraud claims?

Critics have argued that raising concerns about election fraud is a tactic to undermine faith in US democracy.

That, in turn, can lead to poor voter turnout. Misinformation can also sow public confusion, allowing election results to be more easily manipulated by bad actors.

Politicians have also cited such claims to push forward voting restrictions, which critics say could limit who has access to the elections.

A study this year from the University of California, San Diego, found that voter confidence in the US had dropped by 17 percentage points over the last two years. It now sits at 60 percent, down from 77 percent in 2024.

How widely used are mail-in ballots?

About 30 percent of people who voted in the 2024 elections sent their ballots through the mail, according to the Election Assistance Commission, a bipartisan government commission.

This is a slight decrease from 2020, during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Approximately 43 percent of votes were cast through the mail that year, as many voters chose to avoid polling stations out of concern for their health.

In some states, primarily in the western US, the vast majority of votes are cast through the mail.

According to 2024 estimates, some 99 percent of votes in Oregon were cast through the mail. Rates were similarly high in nearby states. The percentage was 98 in Washington state, 93 in Hawaii, 91 in Colorado, and 91 in Utah.

Critics point out that many states that rely on mail-in voting, like Oregon and Washington, traditionally lean Democratic.

Who prepares mail-in ballots?

Preparing the ballots, then sending and collecting them is a massive undertaking, with work often beginning several months before the actual election.

State and county officials design the ballots, which are specific to their jurisdictions. The ballots are then sent out through the Postal Service. Voters can return the ballots through the mail or through official election drop boxes.

To ensure a mail-in vote is valid, local election officials pour over the ballots, checking names and addresses against voter lists and matching signatures to their records.

What prompted the changes at the Postal Service?

In March, Trump issued an executive order ostensibly aimed at ensuring the integrity of federal elections.

It directed the Postal Service to propose new rules, reforming the design of mail-in ballots to include identifying barcodes that the federal government could scan and track.

As part of the new system, states would be required to provide a list of eligible voters who intend to vote by mail.

Trump’s executive order says that the Postal Service “shall not transmit mail-in or absentee ballots from any individual unless those individuals have been enrolled” on a state-specific list.

What legal challenges has the order faced?

A lower court in Massachusetts blocked the March executive order, ruling that the Trump administration had overstepped its constitutional authority.

Under the Constitution, the administration of elections falls to the states, not the federal government.

But last month, the Supreme Court temporarily cleared the way for the Trump administration to enact the changes by lifting the lower court’s injunction.

The legal battle, however, continues. After the Postal Service announced the restrictions to mail-in voting were in effect , 24 states filed a new lawsuit, as did a coalition of voting rights groups.

On August 27, the same judge in Massachusetts issued an order that the new rules not be implemented for 14 days while parties prepare a more detailed case.

Are Trump’s rules for mail-in ballots practical?

Aside from the question of whether Trump’s efforts are constitutional, there are also practical concerns about changing ballot procedures so close to an election.

Richer, the former election official, told Al Jazeera that he questions whether the Postal Service is prepared for the added responsibility of tracking ballots.

“USPS is going to be taking on this massive new burden of having to keep lists of every single mail voter in the US, and checking all ballot packets before sending them out,” Richer said. “There’s a real opportunity now for mistakes.”

What’s in the whistleblower complaint?

The whistleblower complaint obtained by Senator Blumenthal alleges that Trump’s executive order has created chaos in the Postal Service, as it seeks to implement the new rules before Election Day.

According to the whistleblower, the Postal Service had aimed to launch an online portal this week for state election officials to identify ballots they intended to mail to voters.

But the complaint alleges the Postal Service has struggled to set up a working software system in so short a time span.

The software is reportedly designed to match the barcodes on ballot envelopes to lists of eligible voters. Part of the problem, according to the whistleblower, is that the system will reject entire batches of ballots if a single barcode cannot be verified.

Those ballots are then sent back to the state, rather than being delivered to voters. The whistleblower noted that name or address changes could prompt ballots to be rejected.

The complaint also alleges that different parts of the new mail-in ballot system have been developed separately, and the limited testing done so far has shown these different systems do not work well together.

“Such sloppiness and haste seems clearly part of a purposeful attempt to create chaos and prevent people from voting,” Blumenthal said in an accompanying statement.

If the new rules are implemented, how could they impact elections?

Richer, the former election official, said the new rules could cause significant issues.

He explained that state voter rolls are not “a static list”, and they change as voters register or update their personal information.

“It’s not something like a list we have sitting around,” Richer said. “People are always making changes to addresses, or other information, or whether they want a mail-in ballot.”

In some states, voters are allowed to make changes as late as 15 days before an election. That, in turn, could create difficulties in a system that requires states to submit voting lists in advance to the Postal Service.

Richer also pointed out that these changes to mail-in voting are the same as vetting voter lists. They simply cross-reference who is scheduled to receive a mail-in ballot.

But many of Trump’s supporters seem to see the two processes as the same, according to Richer, which raises the possibility of future changes to ensure that happens.

随着11月中期选举的临近，一场关于规范邮寄投票的法律战正在上演。

8月25日，一名选民在南卡罗来纳州共和党初选决胜轮投票站投票。[萨姆·沃尔夫/路透社]

美国各地选民将于11月3日参加中期选举。

但距离投票日还有两个月，一场重大的法律战正在进行，这可能会使整个选举过程陷入混乱。

美国邮政署表示，邮寄选票限制措施现已生效（共3条，此为第1条）。

列表 2/3：数千人参加华盛顿游行，倡导投票权

列表 3/3：美国最高将领表示，没有计划在 2026 年中期选举期间部署军队

针对唐纳德·特朗普总统提出的选举舞弊担忧，美国邮政服务公司（USPS）正紧急采取措施，据称是为了确保邮寄选票的安全。

截至2024年，约有4800万美国选民通过邮寄方式投票。批评人士警告说，限制邮寄投票程序可能会在关键的中期选举前剥夺依赖邮寄投票的群体的投票权。

然而，8 月下旬，最高法院批准了一项紧急请求，允许特朗普政府继续推进其改革。

这给最后的选举准备工作带来了不确定性，一些州的提前投票最早可能在9月份开始。

周二，民主党参议员理查德·布卢门撒尔公开了他收到的一份举报人投诉，详细说明了邮政服务限制邮寄投票的计划存在的问题。

布卢门撒尔在一份声明中表示：“他们的系统注定会失败——这将危及数百万通过邮寄方式投票的美国人的投票权。”

正在发生哪些变化？为什么现在会发生这些变化？举报人投诉中又包含哪些内容？本文将为您一一解读这些问题以及更多内容。

是什么促成了这些变化？

特朗普长期以来一直毫无证据地声称，他的反对党民主党参与了操纵选举。

为了佐证这一说法，他提出了两个相互关联但未经证实的指控。

首先，他认为民主党执政的州允许非公民投票。其次，他认为各州在保障每次选举季寄出的数百万张邮寄选票的安全方面做得不够。

但专家和选举官员对这些说法表示怀疑。

“有一种说法是，选举办公室并没有向任何人邮寄大量选票，只是向一些虚构的人邮寄了选票，”斯蒂芬·里彻说道，他曾是共和党的选举官员，现在是卡托研究所智库的研究员和哈佛大学的讲师。

选举舞弊极其罕见，专家表示，少数有记录的案例并未影响选举结果。

为什么要散布选举舞弊的说法？

批评人士认为，对选举舞弊的担忧是一种破坏人们对美国民主信心的策略。

反过来，这会导致投票率低下。虚假信息还会造成公众混乱，使选举结果更容易被不法分子操纵。

政客们也援引此类说法来推进投票限制，批评人士称这可能会限制谁能参与选举。

今年加州大学圣地亚哥分校的一项研究发现，过去两年里，美国选民的信心下降了17个百分点。目前这一数字为60%，低于2024年预计的77%。

邮寄选票的使用范围有多广？

据两党政府委员会——选举援助委员会称，在2024年大选中投票的人中，约有30%的人通过邮寄方式寄出了选票。

这比2020年新冠疫情高峰期略有下降。当年约有43%的选票是通过邮寄方式投出的，因为许多选民出于健康考虑选择避免前往投票站。

在一些州，主要是美国西部的一些州，绝大多数选票都是通过邮寄方式投出的。

根据2024年的估计，俄勒冈州约99%的选票是通过邮寄方式投出的。邻近各州的邮寄投票率也同样很高。华盛顿州为98%，夏威夷州为93%，科罗拉多州为91%，犹他州也为91%。

批评人士指出，许多依赖邮寄投票的州，如俄勒冈州和华盛顿州，传统上倾向于民主党。

谁负责准备邮寄选票？

准备选票、寄送和收集选票是一项庞大的工程，这项工作通常在实际选举前几个月就开始了。

州和县级官员负责设计选票，这些选票都针对各自的辖区。之后，选票会通过邮政服务寄出。选民可以通过邮寄或投入官方选举投票箱的方式寄回选票。

为了确保邮寄投票的有效性，地方选举官员会仔细检查选票，核对姓名和地址与选民名单，并将签名与记录进行比对。

邮政服务发生变革的原因是什么？

今年3月，特朗普发布了一项行政命令，表面上是为了确保联邦选举的公正性。

它指示邮政部门提出新规，改革邮寄选票的设计，使其包含联邦政府可以扫描和追踪的识别条形码。

作为新制度的一部分，各州将被要求提供一份打算通过邮寄方式投票的合格选民名单。

特朗普的行政命令规定，邮政部门“不得递送任何个人的邮寄选票或缺席选票，除非这些个人已在州特定名单上登记”。

该命令面临哪些法律挑战？

马萨诸塞州一家下级法院阻止了3月份的行政命令，裁定特朗普政府越权。

根据宪法，选举管理权属于各州，而不是联邦政府。

但上个月，最高法院暂时解除了下级法院的禁令，为特朗普政府实施这些变革扫清了障碍。

然而，这场法律战仍在继续。在邮政局宣布邮寄投票限制措施生效后，24个州以及一个投票权组织联盟提起了新的诉讼。

8 月 27 日，马萨诸塞州同一位法官下令，在各方准备更详细的案件期间，新规则暂不实施 14 天。

特朗普关于邮寄选票的规定是否切实可行？

除了特朗普的做法是否符合宪法的问题之外，在临近选举之际改变投票程序也存在一些实际问题。

前选举官员里彻告诉半岛电视台，他质疑邮政部门是否已做好准备承担追踪选票的额外责任。

“美国邮政总局将承担起一项巨大的新负担，那就是必须保存美国每一位邮寄选民的名单，并在寄出前检查所有选票包裹，”里彻说。“现在确实很容易出错。”

举报人投诉内容是什么？

参议员布卢门撒尔获得的举报人投诉称，特朗普的行政命令给邮政服务造成了混乱，因为邮政服务正试图在选举日之前实施新规。

据举报人称，邮政部门原计划在本周推出一个在线门户网站，供各州选举官员识别他们打算邮寄给选民的选票。

但投诉称，邮政部门在如此短的时间内难以建立一个可用的软件系统。

据报道，该软件旨在将选票信封上的条形码与合格选民名单进行匹配。举报人称，问题之一在于，如果单个条形码无法验证，系统就会拒绝整批选票。

这些选票随后会被送回州政府，而不是直接送达选民手中。举报人指出，姓名或地址的变更可能会导致选票被作废。

该投诉还声称，新的邮寄投票系统的各个部分是分别开发的，目前进行的有限测试表明，这些不同的系统不能很好地协同工作。

布卢门撒尔在一份随附的声明中表示：“这种草率和仓促的行为显然是蓄意制造混乱，阻止人们投票。”

如果新规得以实施，会对选举产生什么影响？

前选举官员里彻表示，新规可能会引发重大问题。

他解释说，各州的选民名册不是“一成不变的名单”，随着选民登记或更新个人信息，名册也会随之改变。

“这并不是我们事先准备好的名单，”里彻说。“人们总是会更改地址或其他信息，或者是否想要邮寄选票。”

在某些州，选民可以在选举前15天内更改投票信息。这反过来可能会给一个要求各州提前向邮政部门提交选民名单的系统带来困难。

里彻还指出，这些对邮寄投票的修改与核查选民名单的做法相同。它们只是交叉核对哪些人将收到邮寄选票。

但据 Richer 称，特朗普的许多支持者似乎认为这两个过程是相同的，这增加了未来进行变革以确保这种情况发生的可能性。