Saudi Arabia has shut a critical oil pipeline. Here’s why it matters for the global oil market

Yet another contingency plan for the global oil market – buffeted by more than six months of war between the United States and Iran – has come under serious threat.

On Friday, Saudi Arabia announced that it had shuttered its East-West Pipeline , blaming drone attacks from inside Iraq that it said had caused “injuries and some damage.”

No group has claimed responsibility, but US President Donald Trump has pointed the finger of suspicion at Iran-backed proxy groups operating inside Iraq. Iran’s foreign ministry “categorically denied” the accusation on Monday.

The East-West pipeline – running to the Red Sea port of Yanbu and feeding Saudi coastal refineries – has proved critical in re-routing millions of barrels of Saudi crude from the Persian Gulf during the war. As much as 4% of the world’s oil supply could be taken offline because of the pipeline’s closure, according to a note by Capital Economics published Monday.

The shutdown, which could last for weeks – the extent of the damage is not yet clear – is aggravating an already-tough situation for the global oil market.

Can the oil market survive a forever war with Iran?

Last week, Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen captured the Red Sea port city of Mocha and Perim, an island located at the mouth of the Bab al-Mandeb strait – a narrow waterway that has, for months, functioned as a backup to the Strait of Hormuz, allowing for the export of Saudi oil and refined products.

The combination of the Houthis’ tightening grip over shipping in the Red Sea and Friday’s pipeline closure have ignited fears that the main escape valves for the region’s oil are slamming shut. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark; and WTI, the US benchmark, both rose more than 3% on Monday to $108 and $103 a barrel, respectively.

“It would be truly calamitous if the East-West pipeline cannot be repaired and brought on stream soon,” Bob McNally, president and co-founder of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNN. “It is by far the most important route by which Saudi Arabia was able to redirect crude flows.”

Despite soaring prices, the oil market has proved remarkably resilient during the war; some oil has managed to escape the Strait of Hormuz, some countries have ramped up production and many have drawn from their strategic reserves. In addition, global demand for oil has fallen.

Still, much of that resilience can be credited to the workaround offered by the East-West Pipeline.

The pipeline has, on average, pumped roughly 6 million barrels a day of crude over the course of the war, shy of the 7 million-a-day it can pump at full capacity, according to Richard Bronze, co-founder of Energy Aspects.

It has two uses, he said: pumping barrels of crude for export and supplying refineries along Saudi Arabia’s west coast which, in turn, export oil products like diesel.

At the moment, traders are “even more sensitive” to disruptions in the latter market because it’s smaller and is also suffering as Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries dent supply, said Bronze.

Last week, the average price of diesel in the United States topped $6 a gallon for the first time , according to data from AAA. A prolonged shutdown of the East-West Pipeline could push that to over $6.50 a gallon, Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, wrote in a Monday note.

Oil inventories at Yanbu currently hold around 15 million barrels of crude, according to Johannes Rauball, senior crude analyst at Kpler. Taking an average rate of withdrawal, that gives roughly four days before the tanks are empty, he told CNN.

Janiv Shah, vice president of commodity markets at Rystad Energy, said in a Monday note that he expects the time-to-depletion to be between five and seven days.

But Bronze, at Energy Aspects, expects that Saudi Arabia will be able to resume some flows through the pipeline while making repairs.

Still, a “protracted loss” would turn “a slow-burn crisis into a rapid conflagration,” he said.

CNN’s Matt Egan and David Goldman contributed reporting.

另一个针对全球石油市场的应急计划——该计划受到了美国和伊朗之间长达六个多月战争的冲击——也受到了严重威胁。

周五，沙特阿拉伯宣布关闭其东西输油管道，并指责伊拉克境内的无人机袭击造成了“人员伤亡和一些财产损失”。

目前尚无任何组织声称对此事负责，但美国总统唐纳德·特朗普怀疑是伊朗支持的、在伊拉克境内活动的代理组织所为。伊朗外交部周一“断然否认”了这一指控。

连接红海港口延布和沙特阿拉伯沿海炼油厂的东-西输油管道，在战争期间对将数百万桶沙特原油从波斯湾转移至其他地区至关重要。凯投宏观周一发布的一份报告指出，由于该管道关闭，全球多达4%的石油供应可能中断。

此次停产可能会持续数周——损失程度尚不清楚——这加剧了全球石油市场本已严峻的形势。

石油市场能否承受与伊朗的无休止战争？

上周，伊朗支持的也门胡塞武装占领了红海港口城市摩卡和佩里姆岛。佩里姆岛位于曼德海峡入口处，这条狭窄的水道几个月来一直作为霍尔木兹海峡的备用通道，使沙特阿拉伯的石油和成品油得以出口。

胡塞武装对红海航运的控制日益加强，加上周五输油管道的关闭，引发了人们对该地区石油主要输送渠道即将关闭的担忧。全球原油基准布伦特原油期货和美国基准WTI原油期货周一均上涨超过3%，分别达到每桶108美元和103美元。

“如果东西输油管道不能尽快修复并投入使用，那将是一场真正的灾难，”Rapidan能源集团总裁兼联合创始人鲍勃·麦克纳利告诉CNN。“这是沙特阿拉伯转移原油运输路线的最重要途径。”

尽管油价飙升，但石油市场在战争期间展现出了惊人的韧性；部分石油成功逃过霍尔木兹海峡，一些国家提高了产量，许多国家动用了战略储备。此外，全球石油需求也有所下降。

不过，这种韧性很大程度上要归功于东西输油管道提供的变通方案。

据能源咨询公司 Energy Aspects 的联合创始人理查德·布朗兹 (Richard Bronze) 称，战争期间，该管道平均每天输送约 600 万桶原油，低于其满负荷运转时每天 700 万桶的输送量。

他说，它有两个用途：一是泵送原油出口，二是向沙特阿拉伯西海岸的炼油厂供应原油，而这些炼油厂又出口柴油等石油产品。

布朗兹表示，目前，由于乌克兰袭击俄罗斯炼油厂导致供应减少，俄罗斯市场规模较小，交易员对后一个市场的波动“更加敏感”。

据美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据显示，上周美国柴油平均价格首次突破每加仑6美元。利波石油咨询公司总裁安迪·利波在周一的一份报告中写道，东西输油管道的长期停运可能会使柴油价格上涨至每加仑6.50美元以上。

据Kpler高级原油分析师约翰内斯·劳巴尔称，延布油库目前的原油库存约为1500万桶。他告诉CNN，按照平均提取速度计算，这些油罐大约还能维持四天。

Rystad Energy 大宗商品市场副总裁 Janiv Shah 在周一的一份报告中表示，他预计耗尽时间为五到七天。

但能源咨询公司 Energy Aspects 的 Bronze 预计，沙特阿拉伯将在进行维修的同时恢复部分管道的输气量。

但他表示，“长期亏损”会将“缓慢燃烧的危机变成迅速爆发的大火”。

CNN的马特·伊根和大卫·戈德曼对此报道亦有贡献。