Wither TraCSS? DoD, industry face hard choices in showdown over Commerce spacewatch effort

A graphic image of satellites and debris in space, produced by the Center for Strategic and International Security, the Secure World Foundation, and the University of Texas at Austin. (Satellite Dashboard)

MAUI — Almost $200 million and almost a decade after it was first announced, a Commerce Department effort designed to free the Pentagon from the mission of tracking civil and commercial space operations, in order to better focus its resources on potential on-orbit threats, remains in its nascent stages.

Now, as attendees gather for the annual AMOS conference here, long-simmering and complex debate about whether the Commerce Department should scrap, maintain or completely overhaul its Traffic Coordination System for Space (TraCSS) is at full boil, with decisions about fiscal 2028 budgets coming down to the wire, according to a dozen government, industry and expert sources who spoke with Breaking Defense, many on the condition of anonymity.

The burning question facing the Defense Department, Space Force and US Space Command is simple to state but difficult to answer: What is the proverbial Plan B if TraCSS disappears?

The White House, in its FY26 budget proposal, tried to kill the program, cutting the Office of Space Commerce’s FY25 budget of $65 million to only $10 million aimed at keeping the office itself, which performs other duties, running. Congress disagreed and appropriated $50 million, thus providing some $40 million for TraCSS to continue.

In FY27, the Commerce Department requested $11 million for OSC, with $1 million earmarked to “containerize” the TraCSS pilot system while the administration “works to implement a new operating and financial structure, including the potential establishment of user fees to offset future costs.”

The House Appropriations Committee in May instead slated $50 million for OSC in its FY27 funding bill for the Commerce Department, with bill language specifically calling for the continuation of TraCSS. The Senate committee has yet to act — although given that the Senate side was even more active in supporting TraCSS in FY26, there is a widespread expectation it also will move to restore funding.

Such an FY27 funding infusion alone, however, may not be enough to safeguard the future of TraCSS. Interagency conversations and consultations with industry in recent weeks about the program’s fate have intensified in the FY28 budget run-up, sources say, and opinions vary wildly about what should be done.

“Something has to give somewhere on this,” one frustrated industry source said.

The one thing most everyone agrees upon is that the status quo is not an option.

According to government and industry sources, the TraCSS program is nowhere close to fulfilling its raison d’etre : implementing the first Trump administration’s 2018 Space Policy Directive-3 (SPD-3). The two centrals tenets of SPD-3 were to improve space tracking, and to do so based on use of observational data and analyses provided by US commercial spacewatch companies.

“TraCSS has done useful work, but eight years after SPD-3, the government still has not delivered the architecture the policy envisioned. TraCSS remains a pilot,” said Andrew D’Uva, founder of consulting firm Providence Access Company and a long-time expert on space surveillance.

He explained that the current software cannot even fuse data provided by operators about where their satellites are in space and time with DoD observations and trajectory analyses, a combination needed to create more accurate assessments of when objects are getting too close for comfort. Further, commercial space situational awareness (SSA) observations and analytic services that could also help improve tracking “are not yet part of the operational baseline.”

Jim Cooper, who leads COMPOC’s SSA business, had harsher words: “We have concluded that the current implementation of TraCSS for space traffic coordination and management is misaligned, severely misaligned, with the policy that established it, SPD-3, and we’re not sure why it is continuing down the path it is on.”

Other SSA industry reps, while perhaps less bluntly, echoed Cooper’s opinion — noting that up to now OSC has only funded small “pathfinder” efforts to buy and test commercial tracking data.

“Basically, all they’ve done is put a Department of Commerce ‘wrapper’ around the DoD data and software,” an official from another commercial SSA firm said, in a phrasing almost word-for-word repeated by an official at a competing company.

COMSPOC, along with Kayhan Space, LeoLabs, Slingshot Aerospace, and SpaceNav, has received OSC pathfinder funds over the past few years. These firms, and others in the space tracking arena, such as Anduril following its recent buy of ExoAnalytic, all would benefit from a bigger, more commercially oriented TraCSS.

Even the former head of OSC during the Biden administration, Rich Dalbello, acknowledged that the current program is not what or where it should be.

“I think it is reasonable to criticize TraCSS for not incorporating commercial products more rapidly. …That is a legitimate concern,” he said.

To be fair to OSC, however, Dalbello pointed out the TraCSS program has never been consistently supported or funded. Thus, the current slow pace is at least partially “the result of the ‘on again off again’ nature of the political commitment to this program and the lack of a stable budget.”

D’Uva concerred, saying that the current situation “is a failure of sustained institutional execution, not of the underlying concept.”

The Commerce Department did not reply to questions for this story, although in the past officials have publicly stated that even the TraCSS pilot program actually improves DoD’s current activities in that it provides updates on the positions of space objects more often.

Further Dalbello noted that duplicating DoD capabilities was a deliberate first step in the plan for standing up TraCSS.

“We knew that dramatically departing from the existing systems was likely to be highly disruptive and would have undermined the confidence of DoD [in TraCSS capabilities].

Options For The Future?

A handful of potential pathways for TraCSS are now actively under debate, according to the sources who spoke with Breaking Defense. Each of those options has an upside and a downside, along with defenders and critics.

The first is that TraCSS is scrapped, and DoD stops providing its similar service, in the hopes that a purely private space safety market will emerge where satellite operators simply pay commercial SSA providers for data and analyses to help them avoid on-orbit smashups.

This would mean the US government and taxpayer, are off the hook for the costs of a public sector solution. The downside is that not all satellite operators may be to be willing or able to pay — increasing the risk of on-orbit collisions.

“I think if we all lived in a world where every satellite operator was a good actor and answered the phone when other satellite operators called and voluntarily shared their ephemeris with other operators, then I think a fully privatized system could work,” the commercial SSA rep said. “But the truth is we don’t live in that world.”

A second option is that TraCSS is terminated and DoD to simply keeps on keeping on with its current data and collision warning services to commercial, civil and foreign operators. That information is currently provided to non-military satellite operators by the 18th Space Defense Squadron , stationed at Vandenberg SFB in California.

This may be a reversion to status quo, but the entire point of the TraCSS effort was to free military space operators up to focus on military missions. Leaving this operation with the 18th Squadron would mean a drain on Pentagon resources.

“If TraCSS is ultimately wound down, the answer should not be to shift the civil collision-warning workload back onto Space Force operators,” D’Uva said.

The Space Force did not reply by presstime to questions from Breaking Defense.

A third option has two variants: replace TraCSS with either a government-owned contractor-operated program, or a contractor-owned contractor-operated system funded by the government.

“The government can competitively procure mature commercial capabilities to reprocess appropriate Space Surveillance Network metric observations, fuse them with commercial and operator data, generate better orbit solutions for space safety, and provide conjunction assessment as a basic public service,” D’Uva said.

The question for either variant is which government agency pays: DoD or the Commerce Department.

For industry, at least, the fear is that instead of the government making the hard choices necessary to implement any of these alternatives, TraCSS will simply linger as is, with annual infusions of congressional funds but no support for expanding its capabilities. This will leave the commercial SSA providers in a limbo about their ability to continue to invest in the business.

“I think if TraCSS continues to be funded by Congress, but without that explicit administration approval … it will continue to limp along in this pilot phase, which is not helpful for anyone because it continues to perpetuate uncertainty,” the first SSA industry official said.

Meanwhile, professional spacewatchers fret that the number of satellites and the amount of dangerous space junk on orbit continues to skyrocket ― especially in low Earth orbit where even tiny objects like a screw can kill an active satellite because of the high speeds of impact ― while the US space community’s ability to keep tabs on it all falls farther and farther behind.

由战略与国际安全中心、安全世界基金会和德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校联合制作的卫星和太空碎片图像。（卫星仪表盘）

毛伊岛——一项旨在使五角大楼摆脱追踪民用和商业太空行动的任务，以便更好地将资源集中于潜在的在轨威胁的商务部计划，耗资近 2 亿美元，在首次宣布近十年后，仍处于起步阶段。

现在，随着与会者齐聚此地参加一年一度的 AMOS 会议，关于商务部是否应该废除、保留或彻底改革其太空交通协调系统 (TraCSS) 的长期而复杂的辩论正愈演愈烈，据 Breaking Defense 采访的十几位政府、行业和专家消息人士透露，2028 财年的预算决定也即将尘埃落定，其中许多人要求匿名。

国防部、太空部队和美国太空司令部面临的紧迫问题，说起来容易做起来难：如果 TraCSS 消失了，那么所谓的 B 计划是什么？

白宫在其2026财年预算提案中试图终止该项目，将太空商务办公室2025财年的6500万美元预算削减至仅1000万美元，而这笔预算原本仅用于维持该办公室自身的运转，该办公室还承担着其他职责。国会对此持不同意见，拨款5000万美元，从而为TraCSS项目提供了约4000万美元的资金，使其得以继续运行。

2027 财年，商务部申请了 1100 万美元用于 OSC，其中 100 万美元专门用于“集装箱化”TraCSS 试点系统，同时政府“努力实施新的运营和财务结构，包括可能设立用户费用以抵消未来的成本”。

今年5月，众议院拨款委员会在其2027财年商务部拨款法案中，为OSC拨款5000万美元，法案条款明确要求继续支持TraCSS项目。参议院拨款委员会尚未采取行动——尽管鉴于参议院在2026财年对TraCSS的支持更为积极，人们普遍预期参议院也将恢复对TraCSS的拨款。

然而，仅靠2027财年的这笔资金注入可能不足以保障TraCSS的未来。消息人士称，近几周来，各机构就该项目的命运展开了对话，并与业界进行了磋商，随着2028财年预算的临近，磋商力度也随之加大，各方对于应该采取何种措施的意见分歧很大。

一位沮丧的业内人士表示：“这件事总得有个交代吧。”

几乎所有人都认同的一点是，维持现状是不可行的。

据政府和行业消息人士透露，TraCSS项目距离实现其存在的意义——落实特朗普政府2018年颁布的《太空政策指令-3》（SPD-3）——还相去甚远。SPD-3的两大核心原则是：改进太空跟踪技术，并基于美国商业太空观测公司提供的观测数据和分析结果来实现这一目标。

“TraCSS已经做了一些有益的工作，但SPD-3发布八年后，政府仍然没有交付该政策设想的架构。TraCSS仍然只是一个试点项目，”咨询公司Providence Access Company的创始人、长期从事太空监视工作的专家Andrew D'Uva说道。

他解释说，目前的软件甚至无法将运营商提供的卫星时空位置数据与国防部的观测和轨迹分析数据融合起来，而这种融合对于更准确地评估目标何时过于接近至关重要。此外，商业空间态势感知（SSA）观测和分析服务也有助于改进跟踪，“但这些服务尚未纳入运行基线”。

COMPOC 的 SSA 业务负责人 Jim Cooper 的措辞更为严厉：“我们已经得出结论，目前 TraCSS 在空间交通协调和管理方面的实施与制定该政策的 SPD-3 存在严重偏差，我们不确定它为什么还要继续沿着目前的道路发展。”

其他 SSA 行业代表虽然可能没有那么直白，但也赞同库珀的观点——指出到目前为止，OSC 只资助了一些小规模的“探路者”项目来购买和测试商业跟踪数据。

“基本上，他们所做的只是给国防部的数据和软件套上了一个商务部的‘外衣’，”另一家商业社会保障署公司的一位官员说道，而一家竞争公司的官员几乎一字不差地重复了这句话。

COMSPOC 与 Kayhan Space、LeoLabs、Slingshot Aerospace 和 SpaceNav 等公司一样，在过去几年中都获得了 OSC 的探路者基金。这些公司以及其他太空跟踪领域的公司，例如最近收购 ExoAnalytic 的 Anduril，都将受益于规模更大、更商业化的 TraCSS 项目。

就连拜登政府时期的特别安全委员会前主席里奇·达尔贝洛也承认，目前的计划既不尽如人意，也不在应有的位置上。

“我认为批评TraCSS未能更快地整合商业产品是合理的……这是一个值得关注的问题，”他说。

不过，公平地说，达尔贝洛指出，TraCSS项目从未得到过持续的支持或资助。因此，目前进展缓慢至少部分原因是“由于对该项目的政治承诺时断时续以及缺乏稳定的预算”。

杜瓦对此表示担忧，称目前的情况“是制度执行不力造成的，而不是基本理念的问题”。

尽管商务部官员过去曾公开表示，即使是 TraCSS 试点项目实际上也改进了国防部目前的活动，因为它更频繁地提供有关太空物体位置的更新信息，但商务部并未回复本文提出的问题。

达尔贝洛进一步指出，复制国防部的能力是建立 TraCSS 计划的有意第一步。

“我们知道，彻底改变现有系统可能会造成极大的破坏，并会削弱国防部对 TraCSS 能力的信心。”

未来的选择？

据Breaking Defense采访的消息人士透露，目前TraCSS的几种潜在发展路径正在积极讨论中。每种方案都有其优缺点，也各有支持者和批评者。

第一种可能是取消 TraCSS，国防部停止提供类似服务，希望能够出现一个纯粹的私人太空安全市场，卫星运营商只需向商业 SSA 提供商付费，即可获得数据和分析，以帮助他们避免在轨碰撞。

这意味着美国政府和纳税人无需承担公共部门解决方案的费用。但缺点是，并非所有卫星运营商都愿意或有能力支付这笔费用，这会增加在轨碰撞的风险。

“我认为，如果我们生活在一个所有卫星运营商都是守法公民，都能接听其他运营商的电话，并自愿与其他运营商共享星历的世界里，那么完全私有化的系统是可以行得通的，”这位商业卫星遥感代表说道。“但事实是我们并不生活在这样的世界里。”

第二种方案是终止TraCSS项目，国防部继续向商业、民用和外国运营商提供现有的数据和碰撞预警服务。目前，这些信息由驻扎在加利福尼亚州范登堡空军基地的第18太空防御中队提供给非军用卫星运营商。

这或许是一种回归现状的做法，但TraCSS项目的初衷是让军事航天人员能够专注于军事任务。如果将这项行动完全交给第18中队，将会耗费五角大楼大量的资源。

“如果 TraCSS 最终被取消，解决办法不应该是将民用碰撞预警工作重新转移到太空部队操作员身上，”D'Uva 说。

截至发稿时，美国太空军尚未回复《防务新闻》的提问。

第三种方案有两种变体：用政府所有、承包商运营的项目，或者用政府资助、承包商所有、承包商运营的系统来取代 TraCSS。

“政府可以通过竞争性采购成熟的商业能力，重新处理适当的空间监视网络指标观测数据，将其与商业和运营商数据融合，为空间安全生成更好的轨道解决方案，并将交会评估作为一项基本的公共服务提供，”D'Uva 说。

无论哪种方案，问题都在于哪个政府机构支付费用：国防部还是商务部。

至少对业界而言，他们担心的是，政府不会做出实施这些替代方案所必需的艰难抉择，而是会维持现状，每年获得国会拨款，但却得不到任何扩展其功能的支持。这将使商业社保服务提供商对其能否继续投资这项业务感到茫然。

“我认为，如果 TraCSS 继续获得国会的资助，但没有得到政府的明确批准……它将继续在这个试点阶段艰难前行，这对任何人都没有帮助，因为它继续加剧了不确定性，”第一位 SSA 行业官员表示。

与此同时，专业太空观察员担心，卫星数量和轨道上危险太空垃圾的数量持续飙升——尤其是在近地轨道上，即使是像螺丝钉这样的小物体，也会因为高速撞击而摧毁一颗正在运行的卫星——而美国航天界对这一切的监控能力却越来越落后。