Yemen’s Gate of Tears: How another critical waterway became Iran’s wild card

Brett McGurk is a CNN global affairs analyst who served in senior national security positions under Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

The Bab al-Mandeb Strait is a narrow passage of water separating the Arabian Peninsula from Africa. From the north, it connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean. From the south, it provides access through the Suez Canal to the Mediterranean.

Before the current wars, this passage carried about 30% of global container traffic.

Cars, furniture, food, energy — all moving through a passage only about 20 miles wide at its narrowest point. Without it, ships traveling between Asia and Europe must go around southern Africa and the Cape of Good Hope, adding thousands of miles, days of travel and higher prices for goods.

The ongoing conflict with Iran has focused attention on the Strait of Hormuz and the world’s dependency on its energy traffic. Iran has attacked ships in Hormuz to increase pressure on Washington to stop the war and sue for peace. It’s a tactic that Iran honed years ago in the Bab al-Mandeb — and is positioned to repeat after a new offensive by its aligned militant force in Yemen just last week.

Khaled Ziad/AFP/Getty Images

The Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a lifeline for the global economy, is in jeopardy

Bab al-Mandeb translates literally as the “Gate of Tears.” Some legends attribute the name to ancient earthquakes and floods that separated Africa from Arabia, killing untold thousands. Whatever the precise origin, it’s not known for much good.

I recently learned all this firsthand while working in the Biden administration.

Since 1979, Iran’s revolutionary government has sought to expand its ideology and influence across the Middle East, principally through its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its elite Quds Force — literally, Jerusalem Force — which trains and equips armed groups across the region.

Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza. Militias in Iraq that have repeatedly attacked American forces, Israel and Saudi Arabia. And increasingly, the Houthis in Yemen.

The strategy is straightforward: Build armed networks in weak or fractured states, giving Tehran strategic depth and leverage without having to fight directly itself.

The United States, Israel and US-anchored regional partnerships, particularly with Saudi Arabia, have long been central targets.

“Death to America, Death to Israel, Curse the Jews.”

Yemen, directly south of Saudi Arabia, was divided between North and South during the Cold War, and unified only in 1990. But unification never fully resolved deep political, tribal and regional divisions.

The Houthi movement emerged in northern Yemen in the late 1980s and 1990s from a Zaydi Shiite revival movement. Under Hussein al-Houthi, it became political and militant, fighting repeated wars against Yemen’s central government.

The group later adopted the name Ansar Allah with an Iranian-inspired official slogan was anything but subtle:

“God is great. Death to America. Death to Israel. Curse the Jews. Victory to Islam.”

In 2014, the Houthis seized Yemen’s capital, Sana’a, driving the government south and eventually prompting a Saudi-led military intervention.

Iran did not create the Houthis, who retain their own interests and ambitions. But Iranian weapons, missile components, drones, training and technical expertise helped turn a local insurgency into a globally relevant force.

Shortly before Joe Biden entered office, after I had been named his Middle East coordinator, Yemen was a front-burner issue.

I received calls from senators, humanitarian organizations and activists urging us to do whatever it took to stop the war.

The civil war was entering its seventh year, and the humanitarian situation was horrific, particularly in areas controlled by the Houthis, who poured resources into the war while relying on international organizations to sustain civilians under their control.

Ahmad Al-Basha/AFP/Getty Images

President Donald Trump had designated the Houthis a Foreign Terrorist Organization. Aid groups warned this put relief operations in legal jeopardy and might worsen the humanitarian crisis, which was exacerbated by Saudi airstrikes against the Houthis in Sanaa and other areas they controlled.

In response, the Biden administration revoked the designation, ended US support for Saudi offensive operations — including certain arms sales — and appointed a special envoy to pursue a ceasefire and political settlement.

At roughly the same time, the US military withdrew regional assets, moving air defenses out of Saudi Arabia and destroyers and carrier strike groups out of the Middle East. Washington’s focus turned towards diplomacy but without the hard power backing that’s often necessary for diplomacy to succeed.

As the US pulled back, Iran doubled down.

It supplied the Houthis through maritime and overland smuggling routes. Iranian and Hezbollah personnel also helped assemble and manufacture sophisticated weapons, as Houthi attacks into Saudi Arabia intensified .

NASA WORLDVIEW/Reuters

In April 2022, the United States helped broker a truce, enabled partly by President Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia that summer. There was hope the truce might open space for a more permanent political settlement.

In retrospect, however, the truce shifted advantage toward the Houthis. Iran continued training and equipping its proxy for use in a broader regional strategy.

In 2023, shortly after Hamas’s October 7 massacres and Israel’s response in Gaza, Iran’s armed partners joined the conflict from multiple directions.

Hezbollah fired from Lebanon, while Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria attacked American forces, eventually killing Americans.

From Yemen, the Houthis fired ballistic missiles and drones toward Israel and attacked commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb. Claiming to pressure Israel over Gaza, they instead attacked ships having nothing to do with the conflict with an aim to disrupt a major commercial corridor.

Khaled Abdullah/Reuters

On January 10, 2024, I met Iranian officials secretly in Oman to contain the regional escalation.

The night before, the Houthis launched their largest attack yet against commercial ships and US-led naval forces in the Red Sea, using drones, anti-ship cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. It was the biggest attack against the US Navy since World War II.

There were no casualties solely on account of the skill of our sailors and advanced missile defenses.

Iran’s point was not subtle. It would back its regional ambitions and diplomacy with attacks against us while denying direct responsibility.

The meeting in Oman failed.

The following night, President Biden ordered the first major US strikes on Houthi military targets, with support from the UK, Australia, Bahrain, Canada and the Netherlands. The campaign continued in various forms for more than a year.

Washington had learned the hard way that the quiet in Yemen had concealed an important strategic shift.

During the years in which the civil war largely stopped, Iran had helped create an armed force capable not simply of threatening Saudi Arabia or fighting a civil war inside Yemen, but of reaching Israel and holding global commerce hostage whenever it chose to do so by shutting down the Bab al-Mandeb.

US Central Command/Handout/Reuters

Last year, President Trump restored the terrorist designation of the Houthis, and escalated US attacks against the group. After seven weeks of American strikes, Oman brokered an understanding: The United States would stop bombing Houthi targets and the Houthis would stop attacking US vessels.

The agreement did not cover Israel or Saudi Arabia, but it appeared to impose some quiet. For a time.

Then, last week, the map changed again.

In a rapid offensive down Yemen’s Red Sea coast, Houthi forces seized new ground directly overlooking the Bab al-Mandeb. Then, they reportedly crossed onto Mayyun Island — also known as Perim — which sits in the middle of the strait. CNN’s Nic Robertson had just visited the area and reported on its vulnerability.

Now, Houthi conventional weapons — artillery and rockets — can strike at ships, not just longer-range drones and missiles.

For now, ships are still passing through Bab al-Mandeb. Trump has said the Houthis claim not to want a confrontation with us and will let ships through.

The Houthis do not have to close the strait tomorrow, however. Their ability to hold the passage hostage provides Tehran an added piece of leverage.

Is this the new status quo?

Not necessarily. The front lines in Yemen often shift. There are reports that government forces are preparing a counterattack and that Washington may provide intelligence information. CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper was just in Saudi Arabia to review the situation.

Whatever happens next, however, the Houthis have reminded the world once again that they are positioned to remain — with Iran’s direct backing — a wildcard in any regional competition for power and influence.

And Washington should never again mistake quiet for peace.

布雷特·麦格克是 CNN 全球事务分析师，曾在乔治·W·布什、巴拉克·奥巴马、唐纳德·特朗普和乔·拜登等总统手下担任高级国家安全职务。

曼德海峡是一条狭窄的水道，将阿拉伯半岛与非洲大陆分隔开来。从北部，它连接红海、亚丁湾和印度洋；从南部，它通过苏伊士运河通往地中海。

在目前的战争爆发之前，这条航道承担了全球约 30% 的集装箱运输量。

汽车、家具、食品、能源——所有这些都要通过这条最窄处仅约20英里宽的通道运输。如果没有这条通道，往返于亚洲和欧洲之间的船只就必须绕道南部非洲和好望角，这将增加数千英里的航程、数天的航行时间和更高的货物价格。

与伊朗的持续冲突使霍尔木兹海峡及其能源运输对世界的重要性成为关注焦点。伊朗袭击霍尔木兹海峡的船只，旨在加大对华盛顿的压力，迫使其停止战争并寻求和平。这是伊朗多年前在曼德海峡磨练出的策略，而就在上周，其在也门的武装力量发动了新的攻势，伊朗似乎准备再次故技重施。

Khaled Ziad/AFP/Getty Images

曼德海峡是全球经济的生命线，如今正面临危险。

曼德门字面意思是“眼泪之门”。一些传说将其名称归因于古代的地震和洪水，这些地震和洪水将非洲与阿拉伯半岛分隔开来，造成无数人死亡。无论其确切起源如何，它似乎都并非什么好地方。

我最近在拜登政府工作期间亲身了解到了这一切。

自 1979 年以来，伊朗革命政府一直试图将其意识形态和影响力扩展到整个中东地区，主要通过其伊斯兰革命卫队和精锐的圣城旅（字面意思是耶路撒冷部队）来实现这一目标，圣城旅负责训练和装备该地区的武装团体。

黎巴嫩真主党；加沙的哈马斯和巴勒斯坦伊斯兰圣战组织；屡次袭击美军、以色列和沙特阿拉伯的伊拉克民兵组织；以及日益壮大的也门胡塞武装。

战略很简单：在软弱或分裂的国家建立武装网络，使德黑兰获得战略纵深和影响力，而无需亲自直接作战。

美国、以色列以及以美国为核心的地区伙伴关系，特别是与沙特阿拉伯的伙伴关系，长期以来一直是主要目标。

“美国去死，以色列去死，诅咒犹太人。”

也门位于沙特阿拉伯正南方，冷战期间分裂为南北两部分，直到 1990 年才实现统一。但统一从未彻底解决深层次的政治、部落和地区分歧。

胡塞运动于上世纪80年代末90年代初在也门北部兴起，其前身是宰德派什叶派复兴运动。在侯赛因·胡塞的领导下，该运动发展成为政治和军事组织，与也门中央政府进行了多次战争。

该组织后来采用了“安萨尔真主”这个名称，其官方口号带有浓厚的伊朗风格，可谓毫不含蓄：

“真主伟大。美国去死。以色列去死。诅咒犹太人。伊斯兰教胜利。”

2014年，胡塞武装占领了也门首都萨那，迫使政府军南下，最终引发了沙特阿拉伯领导的军事干预。

伊朗并非胡塞武装的缔造者，胡塞武装也拥有自身的利益和野心。但伊朗提供的武器、导弹部件、无人机、训练和技术专长，确实帮助将一场地方叛乱演变成一支具有全球影响力的力量。

在乔·拜登就任总统前不久，也就是我被任命为他的中东协调员之后，也门问题成为了首要议题。

我接到了参议员、人道主义组织和活动人士的电话，他们敦促我们采取一切必要措施制止战争。

内战已进入第七年，人道主义状况十分糟糕，尤其是在胡塞武装控制的地区，他们向战争投入了大量资源，同时依靠国际组织来维持其控制下的平民的生活。

艾哈迈德·阿尔-巴沙/法新社/盖蒂图片社

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普已将胡塞武装列为外国恐怖组织。援助组织警告称，此举将使救援行动面临法律风险，并可能加剧人道主义危机。此前，沙特阿拉伯对胡塞武装在萨那和其他控制区的空袭，已使这场危机雪上加霜。

作为回应，拜登政府撤销了对沙特阿拉伯的制裁，停止了美国对沙特进攻行动的支持（包括某些武器销售），并任命了一名特使来寻求停火和政治解决。

几乎在同一时期，美军撤出了该地区的军事力量，将防空系统撤出沙特阿拉伯，并将驱逐舰和航母打击群撤出中东。华盛顿的重心转向外交，但却缺乏外交成功往往必不可少的硬实力支持。

美国撤军后，伊朗变本加厉。

它通过海上和陆路走私路线向胡塞武装提供补给。随着胡塞武装对沙特阿拉伯的袭击日益加剧，伊朗和真主党人员也帮助组装和制造精良武器。

美国宇航局世界观/路透社

2022年4月，美国斡旋达成停火协议，这在一定程度上得益于拜登总统当年夏天对沙特阿拉伯的访问。人们曾希望此次停火能为达成更持久的政治解决方案创造空间。

然而，事后看来，停火反而使胡塞武装占据了优势。伊朗继续训练和装备其代理人，以便将其用于更广泛的地区战略。

2023 年，在哈马斯 10 月 7 日大屠杀和以色列在加沙的回应之后不久，伊朗的武装伙伴从多个方向加入了冲突。

黎巴嫩真主党发动袭击，而伊朗支持的伊拉克和叙利亚民兵袭击了美军，最终导致美国人丧生。

从也门出发，胡塞武装向以色列发射弹道导弹和无人机，并袭击红海和曼德海峡的商船。他们声称要就加沙问题向以色列施压，但实际上却袭击了与冲突无关的船只，意图破坏一条重要的商业通道。

哈立德·阿卜杜拉/路透社

2024年1月10日，我在阿曼秘密会见了伊朗官员，以遏制地区局势升级。

前一天晚上，胡塞武装动用无人机、反舰巡航导弹和弹道导弹，对红海的商船和美国领导的海军部队发动了迄今为止规模最大的袭击。这是二战以来针对美国海军的最大规模袭击。

完全由于我方水兵的精湛技艺和先进的导弹防御系统，才没有造成人员伤亡。

伊朗的意图并不隐晦。它会通过袭击我们来支持其地区野心和外交政策，同时否认对此负有直接责任。

在阿曼举行的会议失败了。

次日晚间，拜登总统下令美国对胡塞武装军事目标发动首次大规模空袭，英国、澳大利亚、巴林、加拿大和荷兰均予以支持。这场军事行动以各种形式持续了一年多。

华盛顿已经深刻认识到，也门的平静掩盖了一项重要的战略转变。

在内战基本停止的那些年里，伊朗帮助建立了一支武装力量，这支力量不仅能够威胁沙特阿拉伯或在也门境内进行内战，而且还能够随时通过封锁曼德海峡来抵达以色列并挟持全球贸易。

美国中央司令部/供图/路透社

去年，特朗普总统恢复了胡塞武装的恐怖组织认定，并加大了美国对该组织的打击力度。在美军进行了七周的空袭后，阿曼斡旋达成了一项谅解：美国停止轰炸胡塞武装的目标，而胡塞武装则停止袭击美国船只。

该协议并未涵盖以色列或沙特阿拉伯，但似乎暂时带来了一丝平静。

然后，上周，地图再次发生了变化。

胡塞武装沿也门红海沿岸发动快速攻势，夺取了可直接俯瞰曼德海峡的新阵地。据报道，他们随后渡海登上了位于海峡中央的马云岛（又名佩里姆岛）。CNN记者尼克·罗伯逊此前曾到访该地区，并报道了其脆弱的防御状况。

现在，胡塞武装的常规武器——火炮和火箭——不仅可以打击远程无人机和导弹，还可以打击舰船。

目前，船只仍可通行曼德海峡。特朗普表示，胡塞武装声称不想与美国发生冲突，并会允许船只通过。

然而，胡塞武装并非必须明天就封锁海峡。他们挟持海峡的能力为德黑兰提供了额外的筹码。

这就是新的现状吗？

未必如此。也门战线经常变化。有报道称，政府军正在准备反击，华盛顿方面可能会提供情报信息。美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀海军上将刚刚访问了沙特阿拉伯，评估了当地局势。

然而，无论接下来发生什么，胡塞武装再次提醒世界，在伊朗的直接支持下，他们将继续成为任何地区权力与影响力竞争中的一张王牌。

华盛顿绝不应再次将平静误认为和平。