The one thing Trump won’t give GOP midterm hopefuls: Less Trump

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Here’s what Republican candidates need as midterm elections draw near:

Gas pump prices that aren’t a gut punch. An easing of record diesel costs currently hammering farmers and hiking food prices. A dip in inflation would be nice — and what about that war supposedly won six months ago finally ending?

Perhaps an unpopular president could, for once, exit the spotlight to allow them to focus disqualifying attention on their local Democratic foes. And Donald Trump might also show a smidgen of empathy to voters alarmed by high grocery prices and apocalyptic warnings about AI .

Here’s what GOP nominees have to deal with instead:

Gasoline prices averaging $4.31 a gallon. (But if your truck guzzles diesel, you’re shelling out $6.20 a gallon — up from about $3.60 when Trump took office in January 2025, according to AAA and government data.) Wholesale inflation ticked up in August, as did the Consumer Price Index . Despite what the White House says, most food prices aren’t down. And a new trade war with Canada threatens yet more taxes on consumers.

Trump can’t put a date on when his deeply unpopular war with Iran will stop. And voters who question his judgment over the Middle East quagmire may be equally spooked by his assurance that their AI fears are a “Hoax” and that all will be fine because the US has a “STRONG AND SMART (High IQ!) PRESIDENT.”

The gap between a workable political environment for the GOP and the one it is stuck with tells the story of a campaign that has Democrats hoping to win the House and looking unexpectedly competitive in Senate races where Trump won in 2024.

Remarkably, Republicans’ headwinds are largely the result of the president’s choices, hunches, personal fixations and refusal to tune in to voter perceptions that his economic “golden age” is a mirage. If Trump were deliberately picking the path most likely to damage his own party, it couldn’t look much different.

The Trump-everywhere-all-at-once campaign is also giving Democrats a break. The opposition party has blundered through political oblivion since the 2024 election. There’s little sign that it has fixed the many problems with messaging and policy that allowed Trump to regain power. And recent polls show that it’s just about as unpopular as the GOP. Running a campaign all about Trump looks complacent and has so far produced little progress toward a Democratic rebrand.

But it might work anyway.

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Trump’s ubiquity is having tangible negative effects on Republican candidates even as he argues that polls showing he’s unpopular are wrong.

Michigan GOP Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers is slamming his Democratic foe, Abdul El-Sayed, who is Muslim, as a friend of terrorists and controversial Internet influencer Hassan Piker. Rogers argues El-Sayed is more interested in representing Palestinians than the Wolverine state.

But Trump gives El-Sayed an easy pivot back to the mainstream. He parried questions about Piker on CBS’ “Face the Nation” Sunday by saying, “They want to make this about a streamer in California. I want to make this about affordability in Michigan, and they can’t talk about it because it’s their policies that are driving (prices) up.”

El-Sayed rejected House Speaker Mike Johnson’s claim that progressives were “barbarians inside the gate,” countering: “The barbarian is in the White House.”

Trump’s shadow also looms over Kansas. No one expected GOP Sen. Roger Marshall to face a tight reelection race, but his Democratic opponent Adam Hamilton is lumping him in with Trump’s unpopularity. “Courage is when you stand up to your president and your party, and you say, ‘This is hurting people back home,’” Hamilton said at a Saturday campaign debate.

Marshall’s hopes are darkened by diesel prices punishing farmers with higher operating costs. And the Iran war’s energy crisis also means fertilizer — made with natural gas — is more expensive. “I can’t run away from diesel. And I’ll take responsibility from the standpoint that certainly the Strait of Hormuz is impacting this,” Marshall told RFD-TV in August.

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Kansas might be one of the those red states that spark Democratic dreams but return home to the GOP in November. Still, Vice President JD Vance saw the need to drop in to the state Monday to try to give Marshall a leg up.

Ideally, in a difficult year for Republicans, candidates would localize races and run on their strengths. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, for instance, described Rogers in Michigan and New Hampshire Senate nominee John Sununu as “common-sense problem solvers.” But they’re having trouble defining themselves thanks to the Democrats’ Trump card.

Democratic New Hampshire nominee Chris Pappas noted last month that his Granite State rival lost a previous Senate seat in 2008 because of a radioactive GOP president, George W. Bush. Now, Pappas said , Sununu is “saddling up with another unpopular Republican president.”

And some of Trump’s policies mean that some key swing state races look like toss-ups.

His reignited trade war with Canada has rocked Senate races in Michigan, Maine and Ohio. All three states are heavily integrated with cross-border trade and all have tight races that could decide who runs the chamber.

Maine’s ultimate GOP survivor, Sen. Susan Collins, has criticized the trade war. But her Democratic foe Troy Jackson is jamming her with a classic incumbent’s curse as he bemoans the president’s impact on the states’ logging, fishing and tourism industries and asks , “What has she done to get Trump to back off?”

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In other states, Republicans are hampered not by what Trump has done, but by who he’s chosen. His feud with Georgia GOP Gov. Brian Kemp — who refused to help him steal the 2020 election — led him to push a MAGA favorite to the GOP nomination. But Rep. Mike Collins trails in the polls. And Trump may have inadvertently handed a platform for Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff to emerge as a national figure and potential 2028 presidential candidate.

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Trump’s midterm playbook has baffled many Republicans.

But fans might argue he’s a conviction politician — a welcome change in an era dominated by focus groups. He’s acting on what he believes is a mandate to impose tariffs to rescue US industry; to ramp up immigration enforcement even if it alienates more moderate voters; and to impose dominance on the world. Ever since Trump returned to for a second term, his White House has given the impression that it will use every moment to change America and the world. And it’s also true that unless Trump loyalists show up to back GOP nominees, the party has little chance in the midterms in any case.

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Still, he could make life easier for his fellow Republicans.

When he’s hit the road to promote economic wins — including higher-than-expected tax refunds, cuts to some prescription drug costs and a stock market bull run — he mocks his aides for bothering to write the script he ignores.

But there’s one gift from Trump that may placate GOP candidates: cash.

His $400 million super PAC war chest is starting to dole out contributions to vulnerable Republicans — even if some skeptics wonder how much of his haul Trump is willing to part with. Troubled MAGA Senate candidates like Ken Paxton in Texas and Michael Whatley in North Carolina are desperate for a potentially lifesaving boost.

And Trump would also be spending to shield himself.

His intensely personal approach to the 2026 elections means an overall GOP loss would go beyond the bloody political nose all presidents expect from midterms. It would be an indictment of his character, conduct and political movement.

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随着中期选举临近，共和党候选人需要以下几点：

汽油价格不要高得吓人。目前柴油价格创历史新高，给农民造成沉重打击，并推高了食品价格，希望柴油价格能够有所缓解。通货膨胀率下降固然是好事——还有，那场据说六个月前就已结束的战争，什么时候才能真正结束呢？

或许，一位不受欢迎的总统可以破例退出公众视野，让选民们集中火力攻击当地的民主党对手。而唐纳德·特朗普或许也能对那些因高昂的食品价格和人工智能带来的末日预言而忧心忡忡的选民们表现出一丝同情。

以下是共和党候选人需要面对的情况：

汽油平均价格为每加仑 4.31 美元。（但如果你的卡车烧柴油，你就得花掉每加仑 6.20 美元——根据美国汽车协会 (AAA) 和政府数据，这比特朗普 2025 年 1 月上任时的约 3.60 美元上涨了不少。）8 月份批发价格通胀率和消费者价格指数均有所上升。尽管白宫声称食品价格有所下降，但大多数食品价格并未下降。此外，与加拿大爆发的新贸易战可能还会给消费者带来更多税收负担。

特朗普无法给出他那场极不受欢迎的伊朗战争何时结束的日期。而那些质疑他在中东泥潭中判断力的选民，可能同样会被他关于人工智能的担忧是“骗局”以及一切都会好起来的保证所吓到，因为美国有一位“强大而聪明（高智商！）的总统”。

共和党所处的政治环境与其理想政治环境之间的差距，反映了民主党希望赢得众议院，并在特朗普 2024 年赢得的参议院选举中出人意料地展现出竞争力的竞选故事。

值得注意的是，共和党面临的逆风很大程度上源于总统的选择、直觉、个人执念以及他拒绝正视选民对他的经济“黄金时代”不过是海市蜃楼的看法。如果特朗普是故意选择最有可能损害本党利益的道路，那么结果也不会有太大不同。

特朗普无处不在的竞选策略也让民主党人松了一口气。自2024年大选以来，反对党民主党一直在政治边缘徘徊。几乎没有迹象表明，他们已经解决了导致特朗普重掌政权的诸多信息传递和政策问题。最近的民调显示，民主党的支持率几乎与共和党一样低迷。一场完全围绕特朗普展开的竞选显得过于自满，而且迄今为止，对民主党的形象重塑几乎没有任何帮助。

但或许还是行得通。

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为什么民主党的“蓝色浪潮”可能不会像预期的那样强劲

尽管特朗普辩称民调显示他不受欢迎是错误的，但他无处不在的影响力已经对共和党候选人产生了切实的负面影响。

密歇根州共和党参议员候选人迈克·罗杰斯猛烈抨击他的民主党对手、穆斯林阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德，称其与恐怖分子和颇具争议的网络红人哈桑·皮克尔沆瀣一气。罗杰斯认为，埃尔-赛义德更关心的是代表巴勒斯坦人民，而不是密歇根州。

但特朗普却给了埃尔-赛义德一个轻松回归主流的机会。周日，他在哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）的“面对国家”（Face the Nation）节目中回避了有关Piker的问题，他说：“他们想把这件事扯到加州的一家流媒体服务商身上。我想把这件事的焦点放在密歇根州的物价水平上，但他们却不能谈论这个问题，因为正是他们的政策推高了物价。”

埃尔-赛义德驳斥了众议院议长迈克·约翰逊关于进步人士是“城门内的野蛮人”的说法，反驳道：“野蛮人就在白宫里。”

特朗普的阴影也笼罩着堪萨斯州。没人预料到共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔会面临如此激烈的连任竞选，但他的民主党对手亚当·汉密尔顿却将他与特朗普的低支持率联系起来。“真正的勇气在于，当你敢于站出来反对你的总统和你的党派，并说‘这正在伤害家乡的人民’时，”汉密尔顿在周六的竞选辩论中说道。

柴油价格上涨导致农民运营成本增加，令马歇尔的希望变得渺茫。伊朗战争引发的能源危机也意味着化肥（用天然气制成）价格上涨。“我无法摆脱柴油。而且，霍尔木兹海峡的局势无疑对此造成了影响，我对此负有责任。”马歇尔8月份接受RFD-TV采访时表示。

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堪萨斯州或许是那种能激发民主党人梦想，但最终在11月大选中却会倒向共和党的“红色州”之一。尽管如此，副总统JD·万斯还是觉得有必要在周一前往该州，试图帮助马歇尔赢得大选。

理想情况下，在共和党面临困境的这一年，候选人应该专注于地方选区，发挥自身优势。例如，参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩就曾将密歇根州的罗杰斯和新罕布什尔州参议员候选人约翰·苏努努描述为“务实的解决问题能手”。但由于民主党的王牌——共和党候选人约翰·苏努努，他们现在很难明确自身的定位。

新罕布什尔州民主党候选人克里斯·帕帕斯上个月指出，他的对手苏努努在2008年失去参议院席位，是因为当时共和党总统乔治·W·布什的政策不受欢迎。帕帕斯说，现在苏努努又“与另一位不受欢迎的共和党总统合作”。

特朗普的一些政策意味着一些关键摇摆州的选举结果看起来势均力敌。

他重新挑起的与加拿大的贸易战已经震动了密歇根州、缅因州和俄亥俄州的参议院选举。这三个州都与跨境贸易高度融合，而且选情胶着，其结果可能决定参议院的控制权。

缅因州共和党的“幸存者”苏珊·柯林斯参议员批评了贸易战。但她的民主党对手特洛伊·杰克逊却用典型的现任议员诅咒攻击她，他哀叹总统对缅因州伐木业、渔业和旅游业的影响，并质问道：“她做了什么才让特朗普收手？”

安娜贝尔·戈登/路透社

在其他州，共和党人受阻的并非特朗普的所作所为，而是他选择的候选人。他与佐治亚州共和党州长布莱恩·坎普的矛盾——坎普拒绝帮助他窃取2020年大选——导致他力推一位“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动的拥护者获得共和党提名。但众议员迈克·柯林斯在民调中落后。而且，特朗普可能无意中为民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫提供了一个平台，使其有机会成为全国性人物，并有可能成为2028年总统候选人。

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特朗普的中期选举策略让许多共和党人感到困惑。

但支持者可能会辩称，他是一位信念坚定的政治家——在如今这个焦点小组主导的时代，这无疑是一种令人欣喜的变化。他认为自己获得了授权，要通过征收关税来拯救美国工业；即使会疏远较为温和的选民，也要加大移民执法力度；并力图在世界范围内占据主导地位。自从特朗普连任以来，他的白宫就给人一种印象，那就是它将利用一切机会改变美国乃至世界。而且，除非特朗普的忠实拥护者们出来支持共和党候选人，否则共和党在中期选举中几乎没有获胜的可能。

凯莉·库珀/路透社

不过，他或许能让他的共和党同僚们的日子好过些。

当他奔赴各地宣传经济成就时——包括高于预期的退税额、降低部分处方药价格以及股市牛市——他嘲笑他的助手们费心撰写他自己却不予理会的演讲稿。

但特朗普送出的一份礼物或许能安抚共和党候选人：现金。

他那4亿美元的超级政治行动委员会资金开始向处境艰难的共和党人提供捐款——尽管一些人怀疑特朗普究竟愿意拿出多少。像德克萨斯州的肯·帕克斯顿和北卡罗来纳州的迈克尔·沃特利这样陷入困境的“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）参议院候选人，都迫切需要这笔可能挽救他们命运的资金支持。

特朗普还会花钱保护自己。

他对2026年大选采取的这种极具个人色彩的做法意味着，共和党整体的失败将不仅仅是所有总统在中期选举中都会经历的那场政治挫败。这将是对他的人格、行为和政治运动的彻底否定。