Casualties in Ukraine war could hit 2 million, report warns

A new report warns that the number of soldiers killed, injured or missing on both sides of Russia’s war on Ukraine could hit 2 million by the spring, with Russia suffering the largest number of troop deaths recorded for any major power in any conflict since World War II.

Tuesday’s report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies came less than a month before the fourth anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24.

As the war grinds through another bitterly cold winter, Russian strikes hit an apartment block Wednesday on the outskirts of Kyiv, killing two people. Nine others were injured in attacks in the Ukrainian cities of Odesa and Kryvyi Rih and the front-line Zaporizhzhia region.

The CSIS report said Russia suffered 1.2 million casualties, including up to 325,000 troop deaths, between February 2022 and December 2025.

“Despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a major power,” the report said. “No major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities in any war since World War II.”

It estimated that Ukraine, with its smaller army and population, had suffered between 500,000 to 600,000 military casualties, including up to 140,000 deaths.

Neither Moscow nor Kyiv gives timely data on military losses, and each side seeks to amplify the other side’s casualties.

Commenting on the report, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday that the research could not be considered “reliable information” and that only Russia’s Ministry of Defense was authorized to provide information on military losses.

The ministry’s last statement on battlefield deaths was in September 2022, when it said that just under 6,000 Russian soldiers had been killed. It has not released any updated figures since then.

There was no immediate comment from the Ukrainian government.

In an interview with NBC in February 2025, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that more than 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed since the war began.

The report estimated that at current rates, combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties may be as high as 1.8 million and could reach 2 million by spring.

The figures from the CSIS were compiled using the Washington, D.C.-based think tank’s own analysis, data published by independent Russian news site Mediazona with the BBC, estimates by the British government and interviews with state officials.

People pass a crater and damaged cars near an apartment building after a Russian attack in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on Wednesday. (Kateryna Klochko/AP)

Reports about military losses have been repressed in Russian media, activists and independent journalists say.

Mediazona, together with the BBC and a team of volunteers, has so far collected the names of over 160,000 troops killed by scouring news reports, social media and government websites.

The report also said that Russian forces were advancing at a sluggish pace since they seized the initiative on the battlefield in 2024, despite their much larger size.

Russia’s advance in Ukraine has largely settled into a grinding war of attrition, and analysts say that Russian President Vladimir Putin is in no rush to find a settlement, despite his army’s difficulties on the roughly 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front line.

The report said Russian forces have advanced at an average rate of between 15 and 70 meters (49 to 230 feet) per day in their most prominent offensives.

That is “slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the last century,” the report said.

Putin told his annual news conference last month that 700,000 Russian troops are fighting in Ukraine. He gave the same number in 2024, and a slightly lower figure — 617,000 — in December 2023. It was not possible to verify those figures.

2 killed in attack in Kyiv region

Officials said Wednesday that two people were killed near the Ukrainian capital and at least nine others were injured in attacks across Ukraine.

A man and a woman died in an overnight attack in the Bilohorodka area on the outskirts of Kyiv, according to Mykola Kalashnyk, head of the regional military administration.

Officials in the Ukrainian cities of Odesa and Kryvyi Rih, as well as the Zaporizhzhia region, also reported Russian strikes overnight, wounding at least nine people and damaging infrastructure.

Ukraine’s air force said that Russia attacked overnight with one ballistic missile and 146 strike drones, 103 of which were shot down or destroyed using electronic warfare.

Meanwhile, Russia’s Ministry of Defense said its air defenses destroyed 75 Ukrainian drones overnight. Twenty-four were shot down over Russia’s southwestern Krasnodar region, with 23 more shot down over the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed in 2016.

Two drones were reportedly shot down over Russia’s Voronezh region, where Ukraine’s General Staff said Wednesday that it had struck the Khokholskaya oil depot. Regional Gov. Alexander Gusev wrote on Telegram that falling drone debris sparked a fire involving oil products, but did not give further details.

一份新的报告警告说，到今年春天，俄罗斯对乌克兰战争中双方阵亡、受伤或失踪的士兵人数可能达到 200 万，而俄罗斯遭受的伤亡人数将是二战以来任​​何主要大国在任何冲突中记录到的最大伤亡人数。

战略与国际研究中心周二发布的这份报告距离莫斯科全面入侵乌克兰四周年纪念日（2月24日）不到一个月。

战争在又一个严寒的冬季持续进行，周三，俄罗斯空袭了基辅郊区的一栋公寓楼，造成两人死亡。另有九人在乌克兰城市敖德萨、克里维里赫以及前线扎波罗热地区的袭击中受伤。

战略与国际研究中心 (CSIS) 的报告称，2022 年 2 月至 2025 年 12 月期间，俄罗斯遭受了 120 万人伤亡，其中包括多达 32.5 万名士兵死亡。

报告指出：“尽管俄罗斯声称在乌克兰战场上占据优势，但数据显示，俄罗斯付出了惨重的代价却只获得了微不足道的进展，其大国地位正在衰落。自二战以来，没有任何一个大国在任何战争中遭受过如此惨重的伤亡。”

据估计，乌克兰军队和人口较少，但军事伤亡人数在 50 万至 60 万之间，其中包括多达 14 万人死亡。

莫斯科和基辅都没有及时公布军事损失数据，双方都试图夸大对方的伤亡情况。

克里姆林宫发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫周三就该报告发表评论称，这项研究不能被视为“可靠信息”，只有俄罗斯国防部才有权提供有关军事损失的信息。

俄罗斯国防部上一次发布战场死亡人数声明是在2022年9月，当时称有近6000名俄罗斯士兵阵亡。此后，国防部再未发布任何更新数据。

乌克兰政府方面尚未对此发表评论。

2025年2月，乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基在接受NBC采访时表示，自战争开始以来，已有超过46000名乌克兰士兵丧生。

报告估计，按目前的伤亡速度，俄罗斯和乌克兰的伤亡总人数可能高达 180 万，到春季可能达到 200 万。

战略与国际研究中心 (CSIS) 的数据是根据该位于华盛顿特区的智库自身的分析、俄罗斯独立新闻网站 Mediazona 与 BBC 联合发布的数据、英国政府的估计以及对政府官员的采访汇编而成。

周三，在乌克兰扎波罗热，人们走过一处公寓楼附近的弹坑和受损车辆，此前俄罗斯发动了袭击。（Kateryna Klochko/AP）

活动人士和独立记者表示，俄罗斯媒体压制了有关军事损失的报道。

Mediazona 与 BBC 和一支志愿者团队一起，通过搜寻新闻报道、社交媒体和政府网站，迄今为止已经收集了超过 16 万名阵亡士兵的姓名。

报告还指出，尽管俄军规模远大于美军，但自 2024 年俄军在战场上取得主动权以来，俄军的推进速度一直较为缓慢。

俄罗斯在乌克兰的推进已基本演变为一场旷日持久的消耗战，分析人士表示，尽管俄罗斯军队在长达约 1000 公里（600 英里）的前线遭遇困难，但俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京并不急于寻求解决方案。

报告称，在俄军最主要的攻势中，俄军平均每天推进 15 至 70 米（49 至 230 英尺）。

报告称，这“比上个世纪任何战争中的几乎任何一次大规模进攻行动都要慢”。

普京上个月在年度新闻发布会上表示，有70万俄罗斯军队正在乌克兰作战。他在2024年给出了同样的数字，而在2023年12月，他给出的数字略低，为61.7万人。这些数字均无法核实。

基辅地区袭击事件造成2人死亡

官员周三表示，乌克兰首都附近发生袭击事件，造成两人死亡，另有至少九人在乌克兰各地受伤。

据地区军事管理局局长米科拉·卡拉什尼克称，基辅郊区比洛霍罗德卡地区夜间发生袭击事件，造成一男一女死亡。

乌克兰敖德萨市、克里维里赫市以及扎波罗热州的官员也报告称，俄罗斯连夜发动空袭，造成至少 9 人受伤，基础设施遭到破坏。

乌克兰空军称，俄罗斯连夜发动袭击，发射了一枚弹道导弹和146架攻击无人机，其中103架被击落或被电子战摧毁。

与此同时，俄罗斯国防部称，其防空部队一夜之间击落了75架乌克兰无人机。其中24架在俄罗斯西南部的克拉斯诺达尔边疆区上空被击落，另有23架在克里米亚半岛上空被击落。克里米亚半岛是俄罗斯于2016年非法吞并的。

据报道，两架无人机在俄罗斯沃罗涅日州上空被击落。乌克兰总参谋部周三表示，其中一架无人机击中了霍霍尔斯卡亚油库。沃罗涅日州州长亚历山大·古谢夫在Telegram上发文称，坠落的无人机残骸引发了涉及石油产品的火灾，但他没有透露更多细节。