Expert says Trump may not have problem acknowledging N.K. nuke possession专家称,特朗普可能不会介意承认朝鲜拥有核武器。
WASHINGTON, Sept. 3 (Yonhap) -- A prominent expert said Thursday that U.S. Presi...

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WASHINGTON, Sept. 3 (Yonhap) -- A prominent expert said Thursday that U.S. President Donald Trump may not have a problem with acknowledging North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons as he thinks it is "not his fault," while noting that Pyongyang might wait for the November midterm election outcome before a potential summit with Trump.
Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), made the remarks during a podcast, as Trump is seeking to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un later this year amid questions over whether he would adhere to the long-elusive goal of the North's denuclearization.
"When it comes to Trump and North Korea as a nuclear weapons state, I actually don't think President Trump has a problem with acknowledging North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons, or that they are, in fact, a nuclear weapons power," he said during the CSIS podcast.
"I don't think he has a problem with that because ... in his mind, that is not his fault. That is the failure of 35 years of U.S. policy, everybody before him, and that is why he is in this situation," he added.
This photo, taken on Sept. 19, 2025, shows Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), speaking during a press meeting in Seoul. (Yonhap)
Last month, Trump said that Pyongyang has 57 "very powerful" nuclear weapons, saying that if he had been president during the North's pursuit of nuclear weapons, he would not have allowed it, while reiterating that he gets along with Kim "very well."
In response to concerns about whether the Trump administration would stick to the denuclearization goal, a White House official told Yonhap News Agency earlier this week that U.S. policy on North Korea has not changed. The official, however, stopped short of reaffirming the denuclearization goal.
Cha expected that North Korea might wait until the U.S. midterm elections, after which it might think it could have more leverage in potential talks with the United States.
"I think that if the North Koreans are at all interested in meeting Trump again, they will wait till later in the year. In particular, from their perspective, they will believe they have more leverage after the president is more likely weakened by the midterm elections in November," he said.
During the podcast, retired Gen. Vincent Brooks, who led U.S. Forces Korea from 2016-2018, said that the earliest window for potential summitry between Trump and Kim might be between November and the Group of 20 summit set to take place in Florida in December.
Brooks noted that North Korea can afford to wait for a meeting with the U.S. given that it may want to assess "where the wind is blowing" in the face of various events, such as Chinese President Xi Jinping's planned visit to Washington this month, a major Central Committee session of the Chinese Communist Party next month and then the U.S. midterm elections the following month.
"I think the consequences are: the sooner it happens, the more performative it will be," he said.
"The later it is, the more likely there can be some substance," he added.
This photo, taken on June 30, 2019, shows U.S. President Donald Trump shaking hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during a meeting at the inter-Korean border village of Panmunjom. (Yonhap)
Brooks assumed that both Washington and Pyongyang would have a desire to have an "early touch point" during the fall and then have opportunities for a substantive follow-up discussion thereafter.
Commenting on the G20 summit later this year, Cha raised the possibility of Trump inviting Kim to the G20 gathering.
"Can you imagine the idea that Trump would invite North Korea to the G20? Because the G20 itself is not something that president Trump cares much about, but this would be something that would gather all the attention, global attention of the U.S. hosting the G20," he said.
While questions linger over whether Kim would have an interest in reengaging with Trump amid deepening cooperation with Russia and improved ties with China, Cha outlined a range of reasons why Pyongyang might want a meeting with Washington.
"I don't think North Korea is a status-quo power. They are always looking to improve their position, and meeting with the U.S. could improve their position vis-a-vis both China and Russia by showing they have an active hedge," he said.
"The second thing is that ... I don't think they worry every day that the U.S. is going to attack them. But they have seen what the U.S. has done in Iran and Venezuela and potentially in Cuba, and so there is something on their side to be said for having a touch point with the president to minimize the chances of that."
Cha also argued that North Korea may have a desire to talk with Trump about South Korea's push to have nuclear-powered submarines and other stronger military capabilities.
Trump held three in-person summits with Kim during his first term: the first in Singapore in June 2018, the second in Hanoi in February 2019 and the third at the inter-Korean border village of Panmunjom.
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Expert says Trump may not have problem acknowledging N.K. nuke possession
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华盛顿,9月3日(韩联社)——一位著名专家周四表示,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普可能不会介意承认朝鲜拥有核武器,因为他认为这“不是他的错”。同时,这位专家指出,平壤可能会等到11月中期选举结果出来后再与特朗普举行峰会。
战略与国际研究中心 (CSIS) 地缘政治与外交政策部主任 Victor Cha 在一次播客节目中发表了上述言论。与此同时,特朗普正寻求在今年晚些时候与朝鲜领导人金正恩会面,但外界质疑他是否会坚持朝鲜长期以来难以实现的无核化目标。
“就特朗普和朝鲜作为核武器国家的问题而言,我其实认为特朗普总统并不反对承认朝鲜拥有核武器,或者承认朝鲜实际上是一个核武器国家,”他在CSIS播客节目中说道。
“我不认为他会对此感到困扰,因为……在他看来,这不是他的错。这是美国35年来政策的失败,是所有在他之前的执政者的失败,这也是他陷入这种境地的原因,”他补充道。
这张照片拍摄于2025年9月19日,照片中,战略与国际研究中心(CSIS)地缘政治与外交政策部主任维克多·车(Victor Cha)正在首尔举行的新闻发布会上发表讲话。(韩联社)
上个月,特朗普表示平壤拥有 57 枚“威力非常强大的”核武器,并称如果他在朝鲜发展核武器期间担任总统,他不会允许这种情况发生,同时重申他与金正恩“相处得很好”。
针对外界对特朗普政府是否会坚持无核化目标的担忧,一位白宫官员本周早些时候告诉韩联社,美国对朝鲜的政策没有改变。不过,这位官员并未明确重申无核化目标。
车先生预计朝鲜可能会等到美国中期选举之后,届时朝鲜可能会认为它在与美国的潜在谈判中拥有更大的筹码。
“我认为,如果朝鲜方面真的有兴趣再次与特朗普会面,他们会等到今年晚些时候。特别是从他们的角度来看,他们认为在11月中期选举后,总统的地位可能会有所削弱,届时他们将拥有更大的谈判筹码。”他说道。
在播客节目中,曾于 2016 年至 2018 年担任驻韩美军司令的退役将军文森特·布鲁克斯表示,特朗普和金正恩举行峰会的最早时间窗口可能是在 11 月到 12 月在佛罗里达州举行的二十国集团峰会之间。
布鲁克斯指出,鉴于朝鲜可能想要评估各种事件的“风向”,例如中国国家主席习近平计划本月访问华盛顿、下个月中国共产党中央委员会召开重要会议以及下个月美国中期选举,朝鲜可以等待与美国的会晤。
“我认为后果是:这件事发生得越早,就越像是一场作秀,”他说。
他补充说:“时间越晚,就越有可能有一些实质性的东西。”
这张照片拍摄于2019年6月30日,照片显示美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在朝韩边境板门店会晤期间与朝鲜领导人金正恩握手。(韩联社)
布鲁克斯认为,华盛顿和平壤都希望在秋季进行“早期接触”,然后有机会在之后进行实质性的后续讨论。
车在评论今年晚些时候举行的G20峰会时,提出了特朗普邀请金正恩参加G20峰会的可能性。
“你能想象特朗普邀请朝鲜参加G20峰会吗?因为G20峰会本身并不是特朗普总统非常关心的事情,但邀请朝鲜参加G20峰会将会吸引全世界的目光,因为美国是G20峰会的东道主,”他说。
尽管金正恩是否会在与俄罗斯的合作不断深化、与中国的关系不断改善的情况下与特朗普重新接触仍存在疑问,但车先生列举了平壤可能希望与华盛顿会面的一系列原因。
“我不认为朝鲜是一个维持现状的国家。他们一直在寻求提升自身地位,与美国会晤可以表明他们拥有积极的对冲策略,从而提升他们相对于中国和俄罗斯的地位,”他说。
“第二点是……我不认为他们每天都担心美国会攻击他们。但他们已经看到了美国在伊朗、委内瑞拉以及可能在古巴的所作所为,所以对他们来说,与总统保持联系以尽量降低这种情况发生的可能性是有意义的。”
车还认为,朝鲜可能希望与特朗普讨论韩国发展核动力潜艇和其他更强大的军事能力的问题。
特朗普在其第一任期内与金正恩举行了三次面对面峰会:第一次是 2018 年 6 月在新加坡,第二次是 2019 年 2 月在河内,第三次是在朝韩边境的板门店。
sshluck@yna.co.kr(完)
前官员称,特朗普可能在与金正恩的峰会上讨论朝鲜“默许”拥有核武器、和平条约以及盟军联合军演等问题。
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专家称,特朗普可能不会介意承认朝鲜拥有核武器。