El Nino: A phenomenon supercharged by climate change

Scientists warn the 2026-27 El Nino could become the strongest ever, exacerbating global heat, droughts and floods.

A farmer loads dried leaves and other crop residue from a drought-damaged cornfield onto a truck in Tecoluca, San Vicente department, El Salvador, on August 26, 2026 [AFP]

Anchovies are an unlikely bellwether for a building climatic event, but their disappearance from the coast of South America is heralding one of the biggest El Ninos in living memory.

These small fish usually live in colossal shoals along the Pacific coast of South America, feeding in the cold, nutrient-rich waters. Fishermen in Peru and Chile eagerly await the fishing season every year, but every now and then, it does not come as planned. This is one of those years.

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Some years the easterly trade winds in the Pacific weaken or even reverse. The trigger for this remains uncertain, but it causes a warm ocean current to flow east to the coast of South America. This replaces the nutrient-rich cold water, causing the anchovies to disappear.

Because the warm waters arrive around Christmas time, Peruvian fishermen named the phenomenon El Nino de Navidad (The Christmas Child).

The impact of El Nino, a natural weather pattern, spreads much further than South America, and can bring drought or floods to millions in affected areas. This year it comes supercharged by climate change, which is worrying many scientists, governments and aid workers.

Stephanie Roe, lead climate scientist with the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), told Al Jazeera that this “super El Nino” is a stark reminder of how climate change can intensify pressures on both people and the natural world.

“El Nino can bring devastating climate extremes on its own, but it’s unfolding today on a much warmer planet, increasing the likelihood that heat, drought, floods and fires will push communities and ecosystems beyond anything they have experienced before,” Roe said.

As it develops in the Pacific, this year’s El Nino is combining with an ongoing, massive marine heatwave, further adding to the impacts of human-induced global warming. Its effects will be felt through food systems and biodiversity, impacting the livelihoods of fishermen and farmers, and the billions around the world reliant on the agricultural industry for their food.

El Nino’s development is being closely monitored from both space and sea, using satellites and a network of buoys. The devices in the Pacific Ocean continuously transmit data on ocean temperatures , currents and winds, helping scientists assess how powerful the event could become. Indications currently suggest the 2026-27 El Nino could be the strongest on record.

Research by the Met Office, the United Kingdom’s national weather and climate service, shows that a typical El Nino episode leads to temperature rises of between 1 and 2 degrees Celsius in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. But projections now indicate that when El Nino fully bites in late 2026 or early 2027, temperatures could spike by 3C.

“We should be clear this is an unprecedented event. I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts,” Adam Scaife, professor and the Met Office’s head of long-range forecasting, told Al Jazeera.

“This implies that if the forecast is accurate – and other forecast systems show similar extreme values – then this will far exceed our recent experience of El Nino and its worldwide climate influences,” Scaife said.

What are the implications?

Scientists know that the weather is never certain, but an El Nino ramped up by global warming spells trouble. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has compared it to “pouring fuel on the fire of a warming world”.

The effects will be felt by billions across the world, bringing droughts to some regions and severe flooding to others. In some cases, it can bring both.

Southeast Asia and South America will be particularly badly affected by this phenomenon, according to Carbon Brief, a United Kingdom-based website specialising in climate issues. There might be drought in Southern Africa, but flooding in the east of the continent. El Nino could also bring extreme heat that would weaken summer monsoons, leading to drought.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, this super El Nino demands exceptional preparation and response. “Never before in the 50-year history of the WMO have we launched such a major mobilisation delivering forecasts and services to save lives and livelihoods,” she said.

El Ninos can reduce the number and size of Atlantic hurricanes and provide welcome rainfall to drought-stricken areas. Models indicate that the peak will be from December to February, which coincides with the main planting season and crop-development period in South America.

Investment bank Morgan Stanley said that wetter conditions could benefit agricultural yields in Argentina and southern Brazil, but other parts of Brazil might face more irregular rainfall and delayed planting.

Overall, the outlook is grim, with crop failures caused by El Nino and the climate crisis rippling through supply chains and leading to billions of dollars in damage to the global economy. One group of economists at Citigroup investment bank have estimated that a super El Nino could inflict as much as $7 trillion in global economic losses over five years, as its effects leave lasting scars on gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

“Most El Nino years are a nuisance, but this one has the makings of a shock, as weather patterns shift across key growing regions,” said Julia Rizzo, Morgan Stanley’s commodities strategist for Latin America.

“The effects may extend far beyond local forecasts and into supply chains, prices and investment returns.”

The World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that El Nino could hit as global food systems face systemic challenges due to high energy and fertiliser prices, brought about by the United States’ war on Iran .

“Together these factors increase the risk that climate shocks could push more people into hunger,” the WFP told Al Jazeera.

The United Nations agency forecasts that 274 million people will be facing acute hunger by the end of 2027, an increase of 49 million from current levels.

Outbreaks of disease, like malaria and dengue fever, could be another consequence, particularly in places where sanitation and health systems are already under pressure.

John Nairn, WMO’s senior extreme heat adviser, said extreme heat is the most direct concern.

“Where pre-existing drought exists, heatwaves intensify and compound other hazards such as water scarcity, dust, wildfires, smoke and flash floods,” Nairn said. “Each carries its own burden, ranging from heat mortality and respiratory impacts to waterborne disease.”

It is also feared that the compounding effects of El Nino will put highly stressed ecosystems under more pressure.

In the Pacific region, the loss of baitfish, including anchovies and sardines, is having a knock-on effect up the food chain and could cause deaths among seals and sea lions. Thousands of seabirds have also already washed up dead on Eastern Pacific coasts from California to Ecuador.

“Our recent surveys have been reporting seabird strandings and deaths every day, but it started to explode in June. It showcases the magnitude of this El Nino over such a large expanse of the Pacific,” said Sebastian Cruz of the American Bird Conservancy.

And perhaps most alarming of all for scientists is the likely increase in global temperatures.

“During large El Nino events, significantly more heat is released from the ocean to the atmosphere, leading to an increase in global average temperature,” said Met Office climate scientist Nick Dunstone. “So 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the hottest year on record.”

科学家警告称，2026-27 年的厄尔尼诺现象可能成为有史以来最强的一次，加剧全球高温、干旱和洪水。

2026年8月26日，在萨尔瓦多圣维森特省特科卢卡，一名农民将干旱受损玉米地里的干树叶和其他作物残茬装上卡车。[法新社]

凤尾鱼不太可能成为气候事件发展的风向标，但它们在南美洲海岸的消失预示着有史以来最严重的厄尔尼诺现象之一即将到来。

这些小鱼通常成群结队地生活在南美洲太平洋沿岸，以寒冷而富含营养的水域为食。秘鲁和智利的渔民每年都翘首期盼捕鱼季的到来，但有时，捕鱼季却不如人意。今年就是其中之一。

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联合国警告称，厄尔尼诺现象可能“超出预期”，达到数十年来最强水平（共3个列表，此为第2个）。

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有些年份，太平洋的东风会减弱甚至逆转。其原因尚不明确，但这会导致一股暖流向东流向南美洲沿岸。这股暖流取代了富含营养物质的冷水，导致凤尾鱼消失。

由于温暖的海水在圣诞节前后到来，秘鲁渔民将这种现象命名为“圣诞之子”（El Nino de Navidad）。

厄尔尼诺现象是一种自然气候模式，其影响范围远超南美洲，可能给受影响地区的数百万人带来干旱或洪涝灾害。今年，气候变化加剧了厄尔尼诺现象的影响，这令许多科学家、政府和救援人员感到担忧。

世界自然基金会 (WWF) 首席气候科学家斯蒂芬妮·罗伊 (Stephanie Roe) 告诉半岛电视台，这次“超级厄尔尼诺现象”鲜明地提醒人们，气候变化会如何加剧人类和自然界面临的压力。

罗伊说：“厄尔尼诺现象本身就能带来毁灭性的极端气候，但它如今发生在一个更加温暖的星球上，这增加了高温、干旱、洪水和火灾等极端天气事件发生的可能性，这些事件可能会使社区和生态系统面临前所未有的挑战。”

今年的厄尔尼诺现象在太平洋地区发展，并与持续的大规模海洋热浪叠加，进一步加剧了人为造成的全球变暖的影响。其影响将波及粮食系统和生物多样性，危及渔民和农民的生计，以及全球数十亿依赖农业为生的人们。

科学家正利用卫星和浮标网络，从太空和海洋层面密切监测厄尔尼诺现象的发展。位于太平洋的浮标持续传输海洋温度、洋流和风力等数据，帮助科学家评估此次厄尔尼诺现象的强度。目前的迹象表明，2026-2027年的厄尔尼诺现象可能是史上最强的一次。

英国国家气象局（Met Office）的研究表明，典型的厄尔尼诺现象会导致赤道太平洋海域温度上升1至2摄氏度。但目前的预测显示，当厄尔尼诺现象在2026年末或2027年初全面爆发时，气温可能会飙升3摄氏度。

“我们应该清楚，这是一次前所未有的事件。在我们的预测中，我从未见过如此强烈的厄尔尼诺现象信号，”英国气象局长期预报负责人、教授亚当·斯凯夫告诉半岛电视台。

“这意味着，如果预测准确——而且其他预测系统也显示出类似的极端值——那么这将远远超过我们最近经历的厄尔尼诺现象及其对全球气候的影响，”斯凯夫说。

这意味着什么？

科学家们都知道天气变化无常，但全球变暖加剧的厄尔尼诺现象预示着灾难的来临。联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古特雷斯将其比作“给全球变暖的大火火上浇油”。

全球数十亿人将受到影响，一些地区将遭遇干旱，另一些地区将遭受严重洪涝灾害。在某些情况下，两者可能同时发生。

据总部位于英国的气候问题网站Carbon Brief报道，东南亚和南美洲将受到厄尔尼诺现象的严重影响。南部非洲可能出现干旱，而非洲东部则可能出现洪水。厄尔尼诺现象也可能带来极端高温，削弱夏季季风，从而导致干旱。

世界气象组织秘书长塞莱斯特·萨乌洛表示，此次超级厄尔尼诺现象需要格外周密的准备和应对。“在世界气象组织50年的历史中，我们从未发起过如此大规模的动员，提供预报和服务以拯救生命和保障生计，”她说道。

厄尔尼诺现象可以减少大西洋飓风的数量和强度，并为干旱地区带来急需的降雨。模型显示，厄尔尼诺现象的高峰期将出现在12月至次年2月，这与南美洲的主要播种季节和作物生长发育期重合。

投资银行摩根士丹利表示，更湿润的气候条件可能有利于阿根廷和巴西南部的农业产量，但巴西其他地区可能会面临降雨不规律和播种延迟的问题。

总体而言，前景黯淡，厄尔尼诺现象和气候危机导致的农作物歉收将波及供应链，并给全球经济造成数十亿美元的损失。花旗集团投资银行的一组经济学家估计，超级厄尔尼诺现象可能在五年内造成高达7万亿美元的全球经济损失，其影响将对国内生产总值（GDP）增长留下持久的创伤。

“大多数厄尔尼诺年份都只是令人烦恼，但今年的厄尔尼诺现象可能会带来冲击，因为主要种植区的气候模式发生了变化，”摩根士丹利拉丁美洲大宗商品策略师朱莉娅·里佐表示。

“其影响可能远远超出当地预测范围，还会波及供应链、价格和投资回报。”

世界粮食计划署（WFP）警告称，由于美国对伊朗发动战争导致能源和化肥价格高企，全球粮食系统面临系统性挑战，厄尔尼诺现象可能会随之而来。

世界粮食计划署告诉半岛电视台：“这些因素加在一起，增加了气候冲击可能导致更多人陷入饥饿的风险。”

联合国机构预测，到 2027 年底，将有 2.74 亿人面临严重饥饿，比目前水平增加 4900 万人。

疟疾和登革热等疾病的爆发可能是另一个后果，尤其是在卫生和医疗系统已经不堪重负的地方。

世界气象组织高级极端高温顾问约翰·奈恩表示，极端高温是最直接的担忧。

奈恩说：“在原本就干旱的地区，热浪会加剧其他灾害，例如缺水、沙尘暴、野火、烟雾和山洪暴发。每一种灾害都会带来各自的危害，从高温致死、呼吸系统疾病到水传播疾病，不一而足。”

人们还担心，厄尔尼诺现象的叠加效应将使原本就压力巨大的生态系统承受更大的压力。

在太平洋地区，包括凤尾鱼和沙丁鱼在内的饵料鱼数量锐减，对食物链产生了连锁反应，可能导致海豹和海狮死亡。此外，从加利福尼亚到厄瓜多尔，已有数千只海鸟被冲上东太平洋沿岸，不幸丧生。

“我们最近的调查每天都有海鸟搁浅和死亡的报告，但从6月份开始，这种情况开始激增。这表明此次厄尔尼诺现象对太平洋如此广阔区域的影响程度之大，”美国鸟类保护协会的塞巴斯蒂安·克鲁兹说道。

而对科学家来说，最令人担忧的或许是全球气温可能上升。

英国气象局气候科学家尼克·邓斯通表示：“在强厄尔尼诺现象期间，海洋会向大气释放大量热量，导致全球平均气温上升。因此，2027年很可能取代2024年，成为有记录以来最热的一年。”